在政策製定者和商界領袖前往達沃斯之際，全球經濟可能麵臨著自二戰以來最大的考驗。
俄羅斯入侵烏克蘭使疫情危機進一步惡化——危機接連到來，破壞了人們的生活，拖累了經濟增長，並推高了通貨膨脹。居高不下的糧食和能源價格給全世界的家庭帶來沉重負擔。融資環境收緊進一步給重債國家、公司和家庭帶來了壓力。在持續受到擾動的情況下，各國和企業正在重新評估全球供應鏈。
此外，金融市場波動急劇上升，氣候變化持續帶來威脅。我們麵臨著潛在的一係列災難。
然而，我們的應對能力被削弱了，原因在於烏克蘭戰爭的另一個後果——地緣經濟分裂風險的急劇上升。
我們如何走到了這一步？過去三十年中，得益於新技術和新理念的傳播，資本、貨物、服務和人員的流動改變了我們的世界。這些促進一體化的力量提高了生產率和生活水平，使全球經濟規模擴大為原來的三倍，並讓13億人擺脫了極端貧困。
但一體化的成功也帶來了自滿情緒。長期以來，收入、財富和機會的不平等在太多國家內部持續惡化，近年來各國之間的不平等也在加劇。隨著各行各業在全球競爭中發生了變化，一些人被落在了後麵。各國政府也在竭力幫助他們。
多年來，貿易、技術標準和安全方麵的緊張局勢持續加劇，損害了經濟增長和人們對當前全球經濟體係的信任。根據國際貨幣基金組織（IMF）的研究，僅貿易政策的不確定性就導致2019年全球國內生產總值下降了近1%。自烏克蘭戰爭爆發以來，我們的監測顯示，已有約30個國家限製了糧食、能源和其他重要大宗商品的貿易。
進一步分裂的代價對於各國而言都將是巨大的。從高薪專業人士和從事出口相關工作的中等收入工人，到依靠進口糧食生存的低收入勞動者，每一收入水平的人們都會受到損害。更多人將去其他領域艱難地尋找機會。
想想供應鏈重構和投資壁壘升高的影響。它們可能會使發展中國家更難向發達國家出售產品，也使它們更難獲取技術和積累財富。發達經濟體也必須為同樣的產品支付更多的費用，從而加劇通脹。由於失去了目前與其共同進行創新開發的合作夥伴，發達經濟體的生產率也將受到影響。 IMF的研究估計，僅技術分裂就可能導致許多國家的GDP損失5%。
或者想想，如果各國開發並行的、互不相連的支付係統，以減輕潛在的經濟製裁風險，那麽公眾和企業將為新的交易成本買單。
所以，我們麵臨一項選擇。 要麽屈從於那些使我們的世界更貧窮、更危險的地緣經濟分裂力量，要麽重塑我們合作的方式——在解決共同麵臨的挑戰上取得進步。
恢複對全球體係的信任 —— 四大優先事項
為了恢複人們對以規則為基礎的全球體係能夠造福於所有國家的信任，我們必須以全新的、更好的方式塑造經濟結構。如果我們能夠從重點關注那些一旦取得進展就將明顯惠及所有人的緊迫問題開始，我們就可以建立必要的信任，在存在分歧的其他領域開展合作。
以下是隻有通過共同努力才能推進的四大優先事項。
首先，鞏固貿易以提高韌性。
我們現在可以從降低貿易壁壘開始，以緩解糧食和其他產品的短缺問題並降低其價格。
不僅是各個國家，各家企業也需要促進進口的多元化，以確保供應鏈安全，並維護全球一體化給企業帶來的巨大好處。盡管地緣戰略因素將主導一些采購決策，但這不會導致全球一體化的逆轉。商業領袖在這方麵可以發揮重要作用。
IMF的最新研究表明，多元化可以減少一半的因供應擾動引起的潛在GDP損失。汽車製造商等發現，設計可使用替代零件或更容易獲得的零件的產品可以減少80%的損失。
提高出口的多元化程度也可以增強經濟韌性。支持性政策包括：強化基礎設施以幫助企業縮短供應鏈、增加寬帶接入，以及改善營商環境。世貿組織也可通過其對更可預見、更透明的貿易政策的全麵支持來提供幫助。
第二，進一步共同推動解決債務問題。
由於約60%的低收入國家存在嚴重的債務脆弱性，一些國家將需要進行債務重組。如果不開展果斷合作來減輕它們的負擔，那麽它們和其債權人的狀況都會惡化。而恢複債務可持續性將吸引新的投資，並刺激包容性增長。
這就是為什麽改進二十國集團（G20）債務處理共同框架刻不容緩。這意味著為債務人和債權人製定明確的程序和時間表，並讓其他重債脆弱國家也可使用該框架。
第三，實現跨境支付現代化。
低效的支付係統是實現包容性增長的另一個障礙。以匯款為例：國際匯款的平均成本為6.3%。這意味著每年約有450 億美元從數百萬的低收入家庭流向了中介機構。
可能的解決措施是什麽？各國可合作開發一個全球公共數字平台 。這將是一項具有明確規則的全新的支付基礎設施，使每個人都可以以最低的成本、最快的速度實現安全轉賬。它還可以與各種形式的貨幣相連接，包括央行數字貨幣。
第四，應對氣候變化：壓倒一切的生存挑戰。
在第26屆聯合國氣候變化大會期間，代表全球80%以上排放量的130個國家承諾在本世紀中葉前後實現淨零排放。
但彌合目標與政策之間的差距迫在眉睫。為加快綠色轉型，IMF已主張采取一種綜合性方法，將碳定價和可再生能源投資結合起來，並對那些受到不利影響的人提供補償。
為民眾利益推動取得進展
嚴峻的事實是，隨著我們的經濟結構開始瓦解，我們的行動速度過慢。但是，如果各國現在能夠找到辦法，圍繞這些超越國界、影響我們所有人的緊迫問題共同行動，我們就可以開始緩解分裂、加強合作。一些跡象讓人心懷希望。
當疫情來襲時，各國政府采取了協調一致的貨幣和財政措施，以防止再次出現經濟大蕭條。國際合作對於在極短時間內開發出疫苗至關重要。在全球公司稅收方麵，137個國家同意進行改革，以確保跨國企業在其開展業務的任何地方都繳納其應繳稅額。
去年，IMF成員國支持6500億美元的特別提款權曆史性分配，以加強各國的儲備。就在最近，我們的成員國同意建立韌性與可持續性信托。該信托提供可負擔的長期融資，幫助我們更脆弱的成員國應對氣候變化和未來的流行病。
在力求取得更大進展的過程中，所有各方都必須堅持一個簡單的指導原則：政策是為民眾服務的。我們應該采取行動，將 互聯世界的好處本地化，而不是追求利潤的全球化。
每個國家都有一些社區在過去的全球化中利益受損，並因新冠疫情而進一步倒退。我們首先應支持這些社區：投資於它們的醫療和教育係統。幫助失業者學習所需的技能並轉移到正在擴張的行業工作。例如，出口企業的平均工資更高，更環保的就業崗位也是如此。
多邊機構也可以在重塑全球合作和抵製分裂方麵發揮關鍵作用，包括進一步強化其治理，以確保其反映不斷變化的全球經濟動態。即將到來的IMF資本和投票權比重審查將提供一個這樣的機會。多邊機構還可以利用其號召能力，並最大限度地使用其多元化的工具箱。例如，IMF可以通過其一係列金融工具、雙邊和全球監督以及對所有成員國的公平做法來提供幫助。
我們沒有解決最具破壞性的分裂形式的速效良方。但是，通過與所有利益相關方就迫切的共同關切開展合作，我們可以開始構建一個更強健、更具包容性的全球經濟。
*****
Kristalina Georgieva（簡曆見鏈接）
Gita Gopinath 於2022年1月21日起擔任IMF第一副總裁。她負責領導IMF工作人員開展工作，代表IMF參加多邊會議，與成員國政府和執董會成員、媒體和其他機構高層保持接觸，牽頭IMF在監督和相關政策上的工作，並負責牽頭研究和旗艦出版物的工作。
此前， Gopinath女士於2019至2022年擔任IMF首席經濟學家。在此期間，她擔任IMF的經濟顧問兼研究部主任。在她的領導下，IMF發布了十三期《世界經濟展望》，包括對新冠疫情對全球經濟造成的影響開展預測。她與他人聯合撰寫了關於如何結束新冠疫情的“疫情文件”。該文件為世界各地接種疫苗建立了目標，得到了全球認可，促成了一個由IMF、世界銀行、世貿組織和世衛組織負責人組成的多邊工作組，以結束新冠疫情。另外，其還促了一個與疫苗生產商合作的工作組，以識別貿易壁壘、供給瓶頸並加快向低收入和中低收入國家提供疫苗。她還與IMF其他部門一道，與各國政策製定者、學術界和其他利益相關方共同製定了新的分析方法，通過“綜合政策框架”幫助各國應對國際資本流動。她還幫助在IMF內部成立了氣候變化小組，開展了減緩氣候變化最優政策的分析等工作。
在加入IMF之前，Gopinath女士是哈佛大學經濟係國際研究和經濟學“約翰•茲萬斯特拉”教授（2005至2022年）。此前，她曾於芝加哥大學布斯商學院擔任經濟學助理教授（2001至2005年）。她的研究重點是國際金融和宏觀經濟學，研究成果被廣泛引用，並發表在諸多頂級經濟學期刊上。她撰寫了大量關於匯率、貿易和投資、國際金融危機、貨幣政策、債務和新興市場危機的研究文章。
Gopinath女士是美國藝術與科學院以及計量經濟學會當選院士，且是三十人小組成員。此前，她還擔任美國國家經濟研究局國際金融和宏觀經濟學項目的聯合負責人，紐聯儲經濟顧問委員會成員，以及波士頓聯儲訪問學者。她是當前版本《國際經濟手冊》的聯合編輯，之前擔任《美國經濟評論》的聯合編輯和《經濟研究評論》的主編。
Gopinath女士於1971年生於印度，是美國公民及印度海外公民。她曾多次獲得獎項和表彰。2021年，《金融時報》將她列為“年度最具影響力的25位女性”之一；國際經濟協會授予其“熊彼特 • 哈伯勒傑出研究員”稱號，農業與應用經濟學協會授予其“約翰肯尼思 • 加爾布雷思獎”；卡內基公司將她列為“偉大的（美國）移民”。她被彭博評為“影響2019年的50人”，被《外交政策》評為“全球頂級思想家”，被《時代雜誌》評為“突破重大障礙成為第一的女性”。
Gopinath女士被印度政府授予海外印裔的最高殊榮——薩滿獎（Pravasi Bharatiya Samman），並獲得華盛頓大學傑出校友獎。她在2014年被IMF評為“45歲以下最傑出的25位經濟學家”之一，在2012年被金融時報選為“25位最受關注印度人”之一，2011年被世界經濟論壇選為全球青年領袖。
Gopinath女士於2001年獲得普林斯頓大學經濟學博士學位。此前，她分別獲得德裏大學文學學士學位，以及德裏經濟學院和華盛頓大學文學碩士學位。
Ceyla Pazarbasioglu 是IMF戰略、政策及檢查部主任。在擔任該職務期間，她牽頭開展了IMF戰略方向的相關工作，以及IMF政策的設計、實施和評估。她還負責IMF與其他國際機構（如二十國集團和聯合國）的往來工作。
Why We Must Resist Geoeconomic Fragmentation—And How
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Only international cooperation can address urgent global issues such as fixing shortages of food and other products, eliminating barriers to growth, and saving our climate.
As policymakers and business leaders head to Davos, the global economy faces perhaps its biggest test since the Second World War.
Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has compounded the Covid-19 pandemic—a crisis upon a crisis—devastating lives, dragging down growth, and pushing up inflation. High food and energy prices are weighing heavily on households around the world. Tightening financial conditions are putting further pressure on highly indebted nations, companies, and families. And countries and companies are re-evaluating global supply chains amid persistent disruptions.
Add to this sharply increased volatility in financial markets and the continuing threat of climate change, and we face a potential confluence of calamities.
Yet our ability to respond is hampered by another consequence of the war in Ukraine—the sharply increased risk of geoeconomic fragmentation.
How did we get here? Over the past three decades, flows of capital, goods, services, and people have transformed our world, helped by the spread of new technologies and ideas. These forces of integration have boosted productivity and living standards, tripling the size of the global economy and lifting 1.3 billion people out of extreme poverty.
But the successes of integration have also brought complacency. Inequalities of income, wealth, and opportunity have continued to worsen within too many countries for a long time—and across countries in recent years. People have been left behind as industries have changed amid global competition. And governments have struggled to help them.
Tensions over trade, technology standards, and security have been growing for many years, undermining growth—and trust in the current global economic system. Uncertainty around trade policies alone reduced global gross domestic product in 2019 by nearly 1 percent, according to IMF research. And since the war in Ukraine started, our monitoring indicates that around 30 countries have restricted trade in food, energy, and other key commodities.
The costs of further disintegration would be enormous across countries. And people at every income level would be hurt—from highly-paid professionals and middle-income factory workers who export, to low-paid workers who depend on food imports to survive. More people will embark on perilous journeys to seek opportunity elsewhere.
Think of the impacts of reconfigured supply chains and higher barriers to investment. They could make it more difficult for developing nations to sell to the rich world, gain know-how, and build wealth. Advanced economies would also have to pay more for the same products, stoking inflation. And productivity would suffer as they lost partners who currently co-innovate with them. IMF research estimates technological fragmentation alone can lead to losses of 5 percent of GDP for many countries.
Or think of the new transaction costs on people and businesses if countries develop parallel, disconnected payment systems to mitigate the risk of potential economic sanctions.
So, we have a choice: Surrender to the forces of geoeconomic fragmentation that will make our world poorer and more dangerous. Or reshape how we cooperate—to make progress on addressing collective challenges.
Restoring Trust in the Global System—Four Priorities
To restore trust that the rules-based global system can work well for all countries, we must weave our economic fabric in new and better ways. If we can start by focusing on urgent issues where progress will clearly benefit everyone, we can build the trust needed to cooperate in other areas where there is disagreement.
Here are four priorities that can only be advanced by working together.
First, strengthen trade to increase resilience.
We can start now by lowering trade barriers to alleviate shortages and lower the prices of food and other products.
Not only countries but also companies need to diversify imports—to secure supply chains and preserve the tremendous benefits to business of global integration. While geostrategic considerations will drive some sourcing decisions, this need not lead to disintegration. Business leaders have an important role to play in this regard.
New IMF research shows that diversification can cut potential GDP losses from supply disruptions in half. Auto manufacturers and others have found that designing products that can use substitutable or more widely available parts can reduce losses by 80 percent.
Diversifying exports can also increase economic resilience. Policies that help include: enhancing infrastructure to help businesses shorten supply chains, increasing broadband access, and improving the business environment. The WTO can also help with its overall support for more predictable, transparent trade policies.
Second, step up joint efforts to deal with debt.
With roughly 60 percent of low-income countries with significant debt vulnerabilities, some will need debt restructuring. Without decisive cooperation to ease their burdens, both they and their creditors will be worse off. But a return to debt sustainability will draw new investment and spur inclusive growth.
That is why the Group of Twenty’s Common Framework for Debt Treatment must be improved without delay. This means putting in place clear procedures and timelines for debtors and creditors—and making the framework available to other highly-indebted vulnerable countries.
Third, modernize cross-border payments .
Inefficient payment systems are another barrier to inclusive growth. Take remittances: the average cost of an international transfer is 6.3 percent. This means some $45 billion per year are diverted into the hands of intermediaries—and away from millions of lower-income households.
A possible solution? Countries could work together to develop a global public digital platform—a new piece of payment infrastructure with clear rules—so that everyone can send money at minimal cost and maximum speed and safety. It could also connect various forms of money, including central bank digital currencies.
Fourth, confront climate change: the existential challenge that looms above everything .
During the COP26 climate conference, 130 countries, representing over 80 percent of global emissions, committed to achieve net-zero carbon by around mid-century.
But we urgently need to close the gap between ambition and policy. To accelerate the green transition, the IMF has argued for a comprehensive approach that combines carbon pricing and investment in renewables, and compensation for those adversely affected.
Progress for People
The hard fact is that we have all been too slow to act as our economic fabric started to fray. But if countries can find ways now to come together around these urgent issues that transcend national borders and impact us all, we can begin to mitigate fragmentation and bolster cooperation. There are some hopeful signs.
When the pandemic hit, governments took coordinated monetary and fiscal measures to prevent another Great Depression. International cooperation was essential to developing vaccines in record time. On global corporate taxation, 137 countries agreed on reforms to ensure that multinational enterprises pay their fair share wherever they operate.
Last year, the IMF’s membership supported a historic $650 billion allocation of the Fund’s Special Drawing Rights to strengthen countries’ reserves. Even more recently, our members agreed to create the Resilience and Sustainability Trust—which provides longer-term affordable financing to help our more vulnerable members address climate change and future pandemics.
In the pursuit of further progress, we must all adhere to a simple guiding principle: policies are for people. Instead of globalizing profits, we should act to localize the benefits of a connected world.
Start with the communities in every country that lost out in the “old globalization,” and were set back further by the pandemic: Invest in their health and education. Help displaced workers learn in-demand skills and transition to careers in expanding industries. For example, firms that export pay higher salaries on average—as do greener jobs.
Multilateral institutions can also play a key role in reshaping global cooperation and resisting fragmentation, including by further strengthening their governance to ensure they reflect changing global economic dynamics—the upcoming IMF review of capital and voting shares will provide such an opportunity. They can also leverage their convening power, and maximize use of their diversified toolkits. The IMF can help, for example, with its range of financial instruments, bilateral and global surveillance, and even-handed approach across our membership.
There is no silver bullet to address the most destructive forms of fragmentation. But by working with all stakeholders on urgent common concerns, we can begin to weave a stronger, more inclusive global economy.
