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美媒：製裁或造成廣泛影響，但俄羅斯不會輕易投降
2022年02月01日 11:43 媒體滾動
【編譯/觀察者網 劉程輝】“拜登總統為組織烏克蘭遭入侵而采取的大膽製裁，可能會擾亂整個俄羅斯的經濟，但也會影響到其他的國家。”《紐約時報》當地時間29日撰文，對美國製裁俄羅斯可能造成的後果進行評估。俄羅斯物價、金融市場穩定將受到製裁破壞，影響將超過2014年；但俄方不會輕易投降，可能采取斷氣、網絡攻擊等行動實施報複。給美國和歐洲帶來痛苦。
《紐約時報》：美國製裁俄羅斯可能會造成廣泛影響
“美國官員威脅要對俄羅斯實施的最嚴厲的製裁，可能會導致嚴重的通貨膨脹、股市崩盤和其他形式的金融恐慌，給俄羅斯人——從億萬富翁、政府官員，到中產階級家庭帶來痛苦。”文章指出，這一策略也伴隨著政治和經濟風險。因為從來沒有哪個國家試圖對如此龐大的金融機構以及俄羅斯這樣規模的經濟體實施廣泛製裁。美國官員承諾的“迅速而嚴厲”的製裁可能會擾亂主要經濟體，尤其是歐洲國家，甚至會威脅到全球金融體係的穩定。
一些分析人士還警告說，這種情況可能會升級。俄羅斯可能會切斷對歐洲的天然氣運輸，或對美國和歐洲的基礎設施發起網絡攻擊，以報複來自西方的經濟打擊。
報道稱，製裁造成的痛苦可能會激起民眾對俄羅斯總統普京的不滿，但曆史表明，這個國家不會輕易投降，韌性是其民族認同的重要組成部分。美國官員對他們可能被認為在懲罰俄羅斯人民的說法也很敏感，這種看法可能會加劇反美情緒。
一些專家認為，美國官員正試圖製定一項製裁措施，一方麵能夠對俄羅斯造成破壞性打擊，另一方麵也能限製包括美國在內的世界各地遭受的經濟衝擊。官員們表示，拜登政府目前不打算把製裁的槍口指向俄羅斯龐大的石油和天然氣出口行業，這樣做可能會推高通脹壓力下美國的汽油價格，並導致與歐洲盟友分裂。
2017年，普京向莫斯科無名烈士墓獻花（圖自俄媒）
許多製裁問題專家認為，如果對俄羅斯金融業實施最大膽的製裁，可能會產生重大危害，“這肯定會影響到每一個俄羅斯人”。有報告估計，2014年的製裁將俄羅斯的年經濟增長率降低了3%，而新的製裁可能會產生更大的影響。
對於普通俄羅斯人來說，美國采取的最嚴厲措施可能意味著食品和服裝價格上漲；更嚴重的是，可能導致他們的養老金和儲蓄賬戶，因盧布或俄羅斯市場的崩潰而大幅貶值。
不過，就目前而言，美國官員並未考慮立即對俄羅斯經濟的基礎——石油和天然氣出口——實施任何製裁。
歐洲國家依賴來自俄羅斯的天然氣，而美國的幾個盟友，尤其是德國，希望華盛頓不要擾亂俄羅斯的能源行業。分析人士表示，盡管限製俄羅斯石油和天然氣出口能力的製裁，將是迄今為止針對俄羅斯經濟最強大的武器，或許也是針對“入侵”烏克蘭最有效的經濟威懾，但它們也會給歐洲和美國帶來痛苦。
報道分析，拜登政府可以采取更為謹慎的方式，隻對規模較小的俄羅斯國有銀行實施製裁，或將對俄羅斯聯邦儲蓄銀行和俄羅斯外貿銀行的懲罰限製在它們的投資部門。例如限製這些銀行從事任何涉及美元的交易。
“近年來，對一些俄羅斯實體的製裁產生了意想不到的後果，導致美國官員三思而行。”文章提到，2018年4月，美國財政部將與普京關係密切的俄羅斯商人奧列格·德裏帕斯卡（Oleg Deripaska）等人列入了S.D.N.名單（“特別指定國民與禁止人員名單”）。但由於德裏帕斯卡擁有世界第二大鋁生產商俄羅斯鋁業公司，這項製裁導致全球鋁價飆升。美國財政部被迫於2018年12月解除了對他的主要公司的製裁。
美國國務院前官員菲什曼認為，盡管美國和歐洲國家經常討論俄羅斯的天然氣出口，但原油銷售對俄羅斯的經濟影響要大得多，因此對石油實施製裁可能會產生強大的影響。“石油是俄羅斯經濟的命脈，也是克裏姆林宮投射實力的命脈，美國可能會通過製裁來限製俄羅斯石油生產行業的商品和服務供應，甚至會向盟友施壓，要求它們減少購買俄羅斯石油。”
不過，喬治·華盛頓大學訪問學者瑪麗亞·斯涅戈瓦婭說（Maria Snegovaya）警告稱，“在某個時刻，如果目標是威懾普京，西方將不得不犧牲一點自身福祉。”她還說：“美國的通貨膨脹進一步限製了政府的行動。通貨膨脹已達到30年來前所未有之程度。對俄采取任何重大行動都將導致油氣價格的變化。”
前美國國務院官員、蘭德公司分析師塞繆爾·查拉普（Samuel Charap）則表示，莫斯科還可能會對美國和美國金融巨頭發動新的網絡攻擊。
“如果我們盯上他們的大銀行，他們同樣很可能盯上我們的銀行。”查拉普說。
U.S. Sanctions Aimed at Russia Could Take a Wide Toll
https://www.nytimes.com/2022/01/29/us/politics/russia-sanctions-economy.html
The boldest measures that President Biden is threatening to deter an invasion of Ukraine could roil the entire Russian economy — but also those of other nations.
Sanctions could be viewed as punishing the Russian people — a perception that might fuel President Vladimir V. Putin’s narrative that his country is being persecuted by the West.Credit...Maxim Shipenkov/EPA, via Shutterstock
WASHINGTON — The most punishing sanctions that U.S. officials have threatened to impose on Russia could cause severe inflation, a stock market crash and other forms of financial panic that would inflict pain on its people — from billionaires to government officials to middle-class families.
U.S. officials vow to unleash searing economic measures if Russia invades Ukraine, including sanctions on its largest banks and financial institutions, in ways that would inevitably affect daily life in Russia.
But the strategy comes with political and economic risks. No nation has ever tried to enact broad sanctions against such large financial institutions and on an economy the size of Russia’s. And the “swift and severe” response that U.S. officials have promised could roil major economies, particularly those in Europe, and even threaten the stability of the global financial system, analysts say.
Some analysts also warn of a potential escalatory spiral. Russia might retaliate against an economic gut punch by cutting off natural gas shipments to Europe or by mounting cyberattacks against American and European infrastructure.
The pain caused by the sanctions could foment popular anger against Russia’s president, Vladimir V. Putin. But history shows that the country does not capitulate easily, and resilience is an important part of its national identity. U.S. officials are also sensitive to the notion that they could be viewed as punishing the Russian people — a perception that might fuel anti-Americanism and Mr. Putin’s narrative that his country is being persecuted by the West.
From Cuba to North Korea to Iran, U.S. sanctions have a mixed record at best of forcing a change in behavior. And while the Biden administration and its European allies are trying to deter Mr. Putin with tough talk, some experts question whether they would follow through on the most drastic economic measures if Russian troops breached the border and moved toward Kyiv, Ukraine’s capital.
President Biden has said he will not send American troops to defend Ukraine. Instead, U.S. officials are trying to devise a sanctions response that would land a damaging blow against Russia while limiting the economic shock waves around the world — including in the United States. Officials say that for now, the Biden administration does not plan to target Russia’s enormous oil and gas export industry; doing so could drive up gasoline prices for Americans already grappling with inflation and create a schism with European allies.
But many experts on sanctions believe that the boldest sanctions against Russia’s financial industry, if enacted, could take a meaningful toll.
“If the Biden administration follows through on its threat to sanction major Russian banks, that will reverberate across the entire Russian economy,” said Edward Fishman, who served as the top official for Russia and Europe in the State Department’s Office of Economic Sanctions Policy and Implementation during the Obama administration. “It will definitely affect everyday Russians.”
Mr. Fishman added: “How are you going to change Putin’s calculus? By creating domestic disturbances. People will be unhappy: ‘Look what you did — all of a sudden my bank account is a fraction of what it was? Thanks, Putin.’”
Understand Russia’s Relationship With the West
The tension between the regions is growing and Russian President Vladimir Putin is increasingly willing to take geopolitical risks and assert his demands.
- Competing for Influence: For months, the threat of confrontation has been growing in a stretch of Europe from the Baltic Sea to the Black Sea.
- Threat of Invasion: As the Russian military builds its presence near Ukraine, Western nations are seeking to avert a worsening of the situation.
- Energy Politics: Europe is a huge customer of Russia’s fossil fuels. The rising tensions in Ukraine are driving fears of a midwinter cutoff.
- Migrant Crisis: As people gathered on the eastern border of the European Union, Russia's uneasy alliance with Belarus triggered additional friction.
- Militarizing Society: With a “youth army” and initiatives promoting patriotism, the Russian government is pushing the idea that a fight might be coming.
Sanctions imposed after Mr. Putin annexed Ukraine’s Crimean Peninsula in 2014 and gave military support to an insurgency in the country’s east created a modest drag on Russia’s economy. Those penalties and later ones took a surgical approach, heavily targeting Mr. Putin’s circle of elites as well as officials and institutions involved in aggression against Ukraine, in part to avoid making ordinary Russians suffer.
U.S. officials say the impact of sanctions now would be categorically different.
Washington is looking to take a sledgehammer to pillars of Russia’s financial system. The new sanctions that American officials are preparing would cut off foreign lending, sales of sovereign bonds, technologies for critical industries and the assets of elite citizens close to Mr. Putin.
Previous sanctions heavily targeted Mr. Putin’s circle of elites as well as officials and institutions involved in aggression against Ukraine, in part to avoid making ordinary Russians suffer.Credit...Alexander Zemlianichenko/Associated Press
But the real damage to Russia’s $1.5 trillion economy would come from hitting the biggest state banks as well as the government’s Russian Direct Investment Fund, which has prominent Western executives on its advisory board. The Treasury Department would draw from its experience targeting Iranian banks under President Donald J. Trump, though Iran’s banks are much smaller and less integrated into the global economy than Russian banks.
Once the department puts the Russian banks on what officials call its “game over” sanctions list, known as the S.D.N. list, foreign entities around the world would stop doing business with the banks, which would have a big effect on Russian companies.
The United States would also enact sanctions to cut lending to Russia by foreign creditors by potentially $100 billion or more, according to Anders Aslund, an economist and an author of an Atlantic Council report on U.S. sanctions on Russia. Though Russia has taken steps since 2014 to rely less on foreign debt for expenses, such a loss could still devalue the ruble, shake the stock market and freeze bond trading, Mr. Aslund added.
His report estimated that the 2014 sanctions reduced Russia’s annual economic growth by up to 3 percent, and new sanctions could bite much harder.
Live Updates: Russia-Ukraine Tensions
For an average Russian, the harshest U.S. measures could mean higher prices for food and clothing, or, more dramatically, they could cause pensions and savings accounts to be severely devalued by a crash in the ruble or Russian markets.
“It would be a disaster, a nightmare for the domestic financial market,” said Sergey Aleksashenko, a former first deputy chairman of the Central Bank of Russia and former chairman of Merrill Lynch Russia. He noted that the ruble had already fallen more than 10 percent from its October value against the dollar, amid increasing talk of Western sanctions.
In a sign of the growing seriousness, officials from the National Security Council have been talking with executives from some of Wall Street’s largest banks, including Goldman Sachs, Citigroup, JPMorgan Chase and Bank of America, about the stability of the global financial system in the wake of potential sanctions.
The European Central Bank has also warned bank lenders to Russia about risks if the United States imposes sanctions and has asked about the sizes of their loans.
For now, though, American officials are not considering any immediate sanctions on the foundation of Russia’s economy: its oil and gas exports.
??European nations rely on natural gas from Russia, and several U.S. allies, notably Germany, prefer that Washington refrain from disrupting the Russian energy industry. Analysts say sanctions that limit Russia’s ability to export oil and gas would be by far the most powerful weapon against the Russian economy, and perhaps the most effective economic deterrent against an invasion of Ukraine, but they would also cause pain in Europe and the United States.
“At some point, the West will have to sacrifice a little bit of its well-being if the goal is to deter Putin,” said Maria Snegovaya, a visiting scholar at George Washington University and an author of the Atlantic Council report.
“U.S. inflation further constrains the administration’s actions,” she added. “Inflation is already unprecedented for the last 30 years. Any action against Russia that is dramatic will lead to changes in oil and gas prices.”
Understand the Escalating Tensions Over Ukraine
A brewing conflict. Antagonism between Ukraine and Russia has been simmering since 2014, when the Russian military crossed into Ukrainian territory, annexing Crimea and whipping up a rebellion in the east. A tenuous cease-fire was reached in 2015, but peace has been elusive.
Though the United States and European nations constantly discuss Russian natural gas exports, the sale of crude oil matters far more to Mr. Putin’s economy, so sanctions on oil could have a powerful effect, said Mr. Fishman, the former State Department official.
“Oil is the lifeblood of their economy and of the Kremlin’s ability to project power,” he said, noting that the United States could use sanctions to restrict the supply of goods and services to Russia’s oil production industry, and even pressure allies to reduce their purchases of Russian oil.
European nations rely on natural gas from Russia, and U.S. officials are not considering any immediate sanctions on the country’s oil and gas exports.Credit...Odd Andersen/Agence France-Presse — Getty Images
In Washington, the names of a dozen Russian state-owned and private banks have circulated as potential targets of Treasury Department sanctions. They are listed in Ukraine aid bills introduced by Democratic members of Congress this month. The bills call for sanctions on at least three of the Russian banks if Mr. Putin invades Ukraine.
Russia’s two largest banks, Sberbank and VTB, are on the list. Sberbank has about a third of the assets in the country’s banking sector, and VTB has more than 15 percent, according to Ms. Snegovaya. Mr. Fishman noted that most Russians pay their mortgages to Sberbank. Though Russia’s major banks already have some level of sanctions on them, if they were put on the Treasury Department’s S.D.N. list, the damage to the economy could be profound and long-lasting.
But the Biden administration could take a more cautious approach and impose sanctions only on lesser Russian state-owned banks or limit penalties against Sberbank and VTB to their investment arms. The Treasury Department could also deploy sanctions against banks that fall short of putting them on the S.D.N. list; it could restrict banks from doing any transactions involving dollars, for instance.
And American officials are hesitant to cut off the Russian financial system from SWIFT, a critical electronic network that connects thousands of banks worldwide.
In recent years, sanctions on some Russian entities have had unintended consequences that have caused American officials to think twice. In April 2018, the Treasury Department put Oleg Deripaska, a Russian businessman close to Mr. Putin, and six other oligarchs on the S.D.N. list. Mr. Deripaska owned Rusal, the world’s second-largest aluminum producer, and the sanctions caused a surge in global aluminum prices. The Treasury Department lifted sanctions on his main companies in December 2018.
The technology sanctions against Russia would emulate the kind that the Trump administration used to hobble Huawei, the Chinese telecommunications company. The Commerce Department would invoke what it calls the foreign direct product rule, which bars American companies from providing technology to companies under sanction, demolishing the supply chain needed to produce advanced technologies. One aim would be to hamper the growth of strategic industries in Russia, including its oil and gas sector and defense industry.
“I think the administration is learning from what the U.S. has done vis-à-vis Huawei,” said Christopher Miller, co-director of the Russia and Eurasia program at Tufts University’s Fletcher School.
China’s president, Xi Jinping, may be inclined to help Mr. Putin, given their shared desire to weaken Washington’s global standing. But it is not clear that Beijing would throw Russia a robust lifeline. After the 2014 sanctions, four Chinese state-owned banks declined to do business with Russian institutions in order to avoid running afoul of Washington. And when Russia tried to sell gas to China at a high price, Chinese officials bargained them down.
Some analysts worry less about whether Russia can blunt the pain of American sanctions than whether they might cause Mr. Putin to escalate his showdown with the West.
“If the sanctions are really that momentous and Russia is fighting its biggest war since World War II on an issue of vital importance, they will likely retaliate,” said Samuel Charap, a former State Department official who is now an analyst with the RAND Corporation.
Mr. Charap added that Moscow could conduct new cyberattacks against the United States and American financial giants. The Department of Homeland Security issued a bulletin last weekend warning of Russian cyberretaliation.
“We go after their big banks,” he said, “they would likely go after ours.”
