匯集一下我對市場看法的文章,說明一下我的決策過程

lionhill (2025-08-04 18:15:03) 評論 (0)

大家知道我一貫的主張time in the market is more important than timing the market,而且專門寫過下麵這篇文章:

Time in the Market Vs Timing the Market

https://blog.wenxuecity.com/myblog/82610/202505/16044.html

我大多時候既不猜頂也不減倉,但這並意味著我沒有constantly evaluate the market to judge if we are in a big bubble. 同時我也有一小部分現金用於買進合適股票在市場有large dip時. 我一直承認我沒有水平猜頂. 我一貫以數據說話而不是憑自己主觀感覺,這樣更科學. 從下麵這些貼子我的判斷是近期市場是比較樂觀,a little over extended但估值是有fundamental支撐的,也沒有到extreme,這也是我果斷星期五開盤後加倉的原因.

另外提醒一句,任何人的話都不要輕易相信,包括我說的,最後自己獨立思考判斷做出結論,那怕錯了,逐漸積累經驗會有提高,任何投資決定自己沒有conviction,都不會有好結果.

$7 trillion cash is currently parked in money market funds

https://blog.wenxuecity.com/myblog/82610/202508/2315.html

Stay Invested and Optimistic

https://blog.wenxuecity.com/myblog/82610/202508/255.html

SP500 HIT THE HIGHS: TIME TO HIT THE BEACH?

https://blog.wenxuecity.com/myblog/82610/202508/20.html

Margin Debt at All Time High. Time to Panic? Not So fast

https://blog.wenxuecity.com/myblog/82610/202507/22966.html

UBS View on Current US Stock Market

https://blog.wenxuecity.com/myblog/82610/202507/19545.html

股市估值高企,但宏觀經濟利好支撐

https://blog.wenxuecity.com/myblog/82610/202507/19273.html

這麽多人在叫市場太高,風險大那我就來比較一下與曆史上幾個泡沫看看估值到底是否太高,數據說話

https://blog.wenxuecity.com/myblog/82610/202507/18411.html

對市場下一步走勢的看法

https://blog.wenxuecity.com/myblog/82610/202507/14678.html