關稅退卻內幕 市場災難促使特朗普按下暫停鍵

特朗普關稅退卻內幕：對債券市場災難的擔憂如何促使特朗普按下暫停鍵

https://www.cnn.com/2025/04/09/politics/trump-tariffs-retreat-bond-market

凱文·利普塔克、傑夫·澤萊尼、菲爾·馬丁利、凱拉·陶舍和阿萊娜·特裏恩，CNN

2025年4月9日

CNN——

唐納德·特朗普總統突然決定改變其全麵關稅計劃的方針，宣布暫停三個月，這暴露了他承受政治痛苦的極限：一周。

“他們開始變得喧鬧，”特朗普在解釋過去一周白宮遭受的越來越多的批評時說道。“他們有點喧鬧，有點害怕。”

即使對於一位以政策反複無常而聞名的總統來說，周三宣布暫停其長期鼓吹的互惠關稅三個月，也相當於對他前一天似乎完全支持的計劃進行了令人震驚的逆轉。與此同時，他的貿易代表正在國會山就關稅的好處作證，似乎讓他對暫停關稅一事毫無察覺。

來自共和黨同僚、商界高管甚至密友的連日施壓似乎並未打動特朗普，他上周堅稱：“我的政策永遠不會改變。”

然而，到了周三，說服特朗普改變路線的活動顯然不會停止。在美國國債市場（通常是投資者的安全角落）大幅拋售之後，這一點也變得顯而易見：總統戰略的經濟後果可能是災難性的，而且比他的顧問們此前預測的還要糟糕。

據三位知情人士透露，財政部內部對債券市場發展日益增長的擔憂，是特朗普決定暫停其“互惠”關稅製度的一個核心因素。

財政部長斯科特·貝森特（Scott Bessent）在周三宣布暫停之前的一次會議上直接向特朗普表達了這些擔憂，凸顯了白宮經濟官員們的擔憂，這些官員當天早些時候向特朗普通報了美國國債市場加速拋售的情況。

來自商界主要盟友致電白宮高級顧問，也越來越多地關注債券市場令人不安的發展，並敦促特朗普撤回相關舉措。

兩位知情人士表示，周三上午特朗普在社交媒體上發布有關股市的消息時，他尚未決定暫停大幅增加的新關稅稅率。

但他在當天下午晚些時候承認，他一直在密切關注債券市場的動蕩。

“債券市場非常複雜，我一直在關注，”特朗普告訴記者。 “現在債券市場很好。但是，是的，我昨晚看到大家有點不安。”

特朗普坐在橢圓形辦公室敲定他的聲明，兩位顧問也加入了進來，他們已經成為關稅計劃的對立麵：貝森特和商務部長霍華德·盧特尼克。

“我們沒有聯係律師，或者——它隻是寫出來而已。我們是發自內心地寫的，對吧？它是發自內心地寫的，而且我認為寫得很好，但它是發自內心地寫的，”特朗普隨後說道，他描述了一個更多地受衝動而非精心策劃的戰略驅動的過程。

即使特朗普安撫了市場——至少目前如此——他也提出了新的問題，他暗示他將考慮豁免部分美國公司的關稅，並表示他將“本能地”做出任何此類決定。

旋風般的星期三

白宮又是一個旋風般的星期三，顧問們忙於跟上總統的決定。在經曆了總統任期內最令人羞愧的一次退縮後，他試圖慶祝勝利，急於將周三股市上漲的功勞歸於自己——卻對上周創紀錄的萬億美元損失避而不談。

“這是股市曆史上最大的漲幅。這相當不錯，”特朗普在橢圓形辦公室告訴記者。“如果繼續下去，就會回到四周前的水平。”

如果特朗普計劃在周三淩晨在市場動蕩數日後暫停新關稅，那麽他並沒有公開透露他的意圖。許多白宮官員得知他的決定的同時，全世界也通過Truth Social上的帖子得知了新關稅暫停的消息。

甚至連他自己的高級貿易官員似乎也隻是模糊地意識到這一變化是可能的，直到特朗普在社交媒體上宣布這一改變。

“看起來你的老板就像是突然抽走了你的地毯，暫停了關稅，”特朗普宣布這一決定時，內華達州民主黨眾議員史蒂文·霍斯福德在國會山舉行的聽證會上對美國貿易代表傑米森·格裏爾說。格裏爾當時並未透露任何重大轉變即將到來。

貝森特和其他官員堅稱，暫停對除中國以外所有國家征收新關稅的決定並非讓步；相反，他們認為此舉是特朗普總體計劃的一部分。

讓各國坐到談判桌前。

“他需要極大的勇氣，巨大的勇氣才能堅持到現在，”貝森特說道。他上周末飛往棕櫚灘，與特朗普就關稅的最終結果進行了長時間的討論。

盡管他的顧問們對此避而不談，但總統承認，日益高漲的批評、日益加深的焦慮以及金融市場不斷擴大的損失，促使他在周三下午突然決定暫停征收多項關稅三個月。

“我認為人們有點過分了，”特朗普告訴記者。

對債券拋售的擔憂

周三上午，美國政府的經濟團隊高度關注債券拋售問題。債券拋售在前一天加劇，並在隔夜急劇加速，推高了收益率，實際上，這與全球經濟如此不穩定和動蕩的時刻通常發生的情況截然相反。

從曆史上看，美國國債價格通常在股市拋售時上漲，因為投資者爭相將資產轉移到全球避風港，而美國市場長期以來的這種地位得益於其安全性和流動性。

特朗普宣布關稅政策以來首次舉行的財政部債券拍賣中，由於需求意外疲軟，美國國債價格出現逆轉，隨後加速上漲，這引發了越來越多的擔憂。美國國債的大幅拋售，加上新發行美國國債的需求低迷，進一步引發了人們對外國正在放棄購買新發行美國國債和出售其持有的債券的擔憂。由於債券收入用於支付稅收無法覆蓋的政府項目成本，人們普遍擔心特朗普更廣泛的議程將麵臨危險。

在周三的電視采訪中，貝森特駁斥了這些舉動，稱其“令人不安，但很正常”。

但對於貝森特來說，他的金融生涯與債券市場息息相關，並且在內閣任職期間一直致力於壓低10年期國債收益率，財政部高級官員發出的警告他心知肚明，並在後來與特朗普的談話中有所體現。

總統密切關注著電視上對他本人的報道，他甚至看到一些親密盟友也發出了可怕的警告，稱關稅可能導致經濟衰退。周三早上，他正在觀看福克斯商業頻道，摩根大通首席執行官傑米·戴蒙表示，特朗普的關稅政策導致貿易戰升級，經濟衰退“很可能是”結果。

戴蒙告訴福克斯商業頻道的瑪麗亞·巴蒂羅莫：“市場並不總是正確的，但有時它們是對的。”

高管們紛紛致電白宮

在白宮內部，企業高管、共和黨人以及總統的其他盟友紛紛致電，敦促他重新考慮關稅政策，但幾乎沒有跡象表明特朗普正在考慮暫停加征關稅。

隨著市場持續下跌，貿易鷹派人士繼續在電視上宣傳特朗普不惜一切代價加征關稅的策略，高管們紛紛致電白宮辦公廳主任蘇西·威爾斯、副總裁JD·萬斯和財政部長斯科特·貝森特，直接向特朗普陳述情況。

這些消息人士表示，威爾斯尤其有效地說服了特朗普，市場暴跌正在耗費他未來議程所需的大量政治資本。隨著市場持續下跌，議員們接到的選民來電也越來越多，他們對此表示憤怒。

貝森特周末在佛羅裏達與特朗普的談話重點關注關稅的總體目標，他似乎也更多地參與了公共信息傳遞，頻繁談論目前數十個國家正在爭奪貿易協議。

“這是由總統的策略驅動的。我和他周日進行了一次長談，這始終是他的策略，”貝森特周三表示。

然而，特朗普承認他一直密切關注市場，稱過去幾天市場表現“低迷”。

在宣布顛覆全球貿易體係的關稅一周後，總統站在白宮外三輛色彩鮮豔的賽車前，反思導致他退縮的原因。他試圖將很大程度上是自己造成的問題歸咎於自己，並表示他的信譽並未因這次打擊而受損。

“你必須保持靈活性，”特朗普說。“我認為在金融市場，因為它們會變化，看看今天的變化有多大。”

Inside Trump’s tariff retreat: How fears of a bond market catastrophe convinced Trump to hit the pause button

https://www.cnn.com/2025/04/09/politics/trump-tariffs-retreat-bond-market

Kevin Liptak, Jeff Zeleny, Phil Mattingly, Kayla Tausche and Alayna Treene, CNN

April 9, 2025

 

CNN — 

President Donald Trump’s abrupt decision to reverse course on his sweeping tariff plan by announcing a three-month pause revealed his threshold for political pain: One week.

“They were getting yippy,” Trump said, explaining the rising criticism raining down on the White House over the last week. “They were getting a little bit yippy, a little afraid.”

Even for a president famous for his policy bobs and weaves, Wednesday’s announcement he was pausing his long-touted reciprocal tariffs for three months amounted to a stunning reversal of a plan he had appeared only a day earlier to be fully behind and came as his own trade representative was testifying on Capitol Hill to the benefits of the tariffs, seemingly catching him unaware of the pause.

Days of pressure from fellow Republicans, business executives and even his close friends hadn’t appeared to move Trump, who insisted last week: “MY POLICIES WILL NEVER CHANGE.”

By Wednesday, however, it had become evident the campaign to convince Trump to change course would not let up. It had also become plain after a sharp sell-off in US government bond markets — usually a safe corner for investors — that the economic ramifications of the president’s strategy were potentially catastrophic and worse than his advisers had previously predicted.

The growing alarm inside the Treasury Department over developments in the bond market was a central factor in Trump’s decision to hit pause on his “reciprocal” tariff regime, according to three people familiar with the matter.

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent raised those concerns directly to Trump Wednesday in a meeting that preceded the pause announcement, underscoring concerns shared by White House economic officials who had briefed Trump on the accelerating selloff in the US Treasury market earlier in the day.

Calls to top White House advisors from key business community allies also increasingly focused on the troubling developments in the bond market as they made the case for Trump to pull back.

Trump had not yet made the decision to pause the dramatic new tariff rates when he was posting on social media about the stock market Wednesday morning, two of the people said.

But he acknowledged later in the afternoon that he’d been watching the bond market turmoil closely.

“The bond market is very tricky, I was watching it,” Trump told reporters. “The bond market right now is beautiful. But yeah, I saw last night where people were getting a little queasy.”

Sitting in the Oval Office to tap out his announcement, Trump was joined by two advisers who had become dueling faces of the tariff plan: Bessent and Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick.

“We didn’t have access to lawyers or – it was just wrote up. We wrote it up from our hearts, right? It was written from the heart, and I think it was well written too, but it was written from the heart,” Trump said afterward, describing a process driven more by impulse than mapped-out strategy.

Even as Trump calmed the markets – for now, at least – he also raised new questions by suggesting he would consider exempting some US companies from tariffs, saying he would make any such decisions “instinctively.”

Whirlwind Wednesday

It was another whirlwind Wednesday at the White House, with advisers scrambling to keep pace with the president’s decisions. He sought to take a victory lap after one of the most humbling retreats of his presidency, eager to take credit for the stock market gains Wednesday – without mentioning the record-setting, trillion-dollar losses over the last week.

“It’s the biggest increase in the history of the stock market. That’s pretty good,” Trump told reporters in the Oval Office. “If you keep going, you’re going to be back to where it was four weeks ago.”

If Trump was planning early Wednesday to pause his new tariffs after days of market turmoil, he did not reveal his intentions widely. Many White House officials heard of his decision at the same time the world learned, via post on Truth Social, that the new tariffs were on pause.

Even his own top trade official seemed only vaguely aware the change was possible by the time Trump announced the reversal on social media.

“It looks like your boss just pulled out the rug from under you and paused the tariffs,” Democratic Rep. Steven Horsford of Nevada told US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer during a hearing that was underway on Capitol Hill when Trump made his announcement. Greer had offered zero indication to that point the major shift was coming.

Bessent and other officials insisted the decision to pause the new tariffs on all nations except China was not a backdown; instead, they framed the move as all part of Trump’s master plan to bring nations to the negotiating table.

“It took great courage, great courage for him to stay the course until this moment,” said Bessent, who flew to Palm Beach last weekend for a lengthy discussion with Trump on the endgame of the tariffs.

Even as his advisers danced around it, though, the president acknowledged that the rising criticism, deepening angst and mounting losses in the financial markets contributed to his abrupt decision on Wednesday afternoon to impose a three-month pause on many of the tariffs.

“I thought that people were jumping a little bit out of line,” Trump told reporters.

Alarm over bond selloff

The administration’s economic team spent Wednesday morning intensely focused on the bond selloff that had intensified a day earlier and accelerated aggressively overnight, driving yields higher and, in effect, demonstrating the exact opposite of what would normally happen during such an unstable and volatile moment in the global economy.

Historically, Treasurys rally in moments of stock market selloffs as investors rush to shift assets to a global safehaven, the longstanding status due to the safety and liquidity provided by the US market.

Watching the inverse play out, then accelerate after unexpectedly weak demand at the first Treasury Department auction to take place since Trump’s announced his tariff regime, led to growing alarm. The sharp selling of Treasurys – coupled with low demand for a sale of new US Treasury debt – sparked further concerns that foreign countries were abstaining from buying new US Treasurys and selling the debt they had. Because bond revenue pays for the cost of government programs that tax revenue doesn’t cover, worries abounded that Trump’s broader agenda was in jeopardy.

In a television interview Wednesday, Bessent dismissed the moves as “uncomfortable, but normal.”

But for Bessent, whose finance career was deeply intertwined with the bond market and who has been fixated on driving down the 10-year yields in his cabinet post, the alarm relayed by senior Treasury officials was understood and reflected in the later conversation with Trump.

The president, who is a close monitor of his own coverage on television, had seen even some of his close allies issue dire warnings about the prospects of a recession as a result of the tariffs. He was watching Fox Business channel on Wednesday morning when JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon said a recession was “a likely outcome” of an escalating trade war resulting from Trump’s tariff policies.

“Markets aren’t always right, but sometimes they are right,” Dimon told Fox Business’ Maria Bartiromo.

Executives light up White House phones

Inside the White House, telephone calls had been coming quickly from business executives, Republicans and other allies of the President urging him to reconsider his tariffs, but they received little indication a pause was in the works.

Executives had been lighting up the phone lines of chief of staff Susie Wiles, Vice President JD Vance, and Treasury secretary Scott Bessent to make the case to Trump directly as trade hawks continued to promote Trump’s tariffs-at-all-costs approach on television as the market continued to sink.

Wiles, these sources said, had been particularly effective in convincing Trump that the market rout was costing considerable political capital that he would need for future agenda items, with lawmakers fielding increasingly angry constituent calls as the market continued sinking.

Bessent, whose conversation with Trump in Florida over the weekend focused on zeroing in on the overall goal of the tariffs, also appeared to assume more of a role in the public messaging, talking frequently about the dozens of countries now jockeying for trade deals.

“This was driven by the President’s strategy. He and I had a long talk on Sunday, and this was his strategy all along,” Bessent said on Wednesday.

Trump, however, acknowledged he’d been keeping a close eye on markets, calling their performance “glum” over the last few days.

A week after making a tariff announcement that upended the global trading system, the president stood outside the White House in front of three colorful race cars and reflected on what led to his retreat. He sought to take credit for a problem largely of his own making, saying his credibility was not eroded by the whiplash.

“You have to have flexibility,” Trump said. “I think in financial markets, because they change, look how much you change today.”