https://www.wqln.org/2025-08-07/economist-paul-krugman-on-the-impact-of-trumps-tariffs
史蒂夫·英斯基普 2025年8月7日
史蒂夫·英斯基普，主持人：
現在我們請到保羅·克魯格曼，他一直在密切關注這一切。他是紐約城市大學的經濟學家，在他的Substack網站上撰寫經濟學文章，還拿過諾貝爾獎之類的。克魯格曼先生，我說得對嗎？
保羅·克魯格曼：他們就是這麽告訴我的。
英斯基普：好的，太好了。恭喜你。斯科特·霍斯利剛才提到了對咖啡征收50%的關稅。所以我還想問你，你喝咖啡嗎？
克魯格曼：我是。我非常惱火，我們竟然豁免了巴西橙汁的關稅，而我卻不喝橙汁，還對咖啡征稅，而咖啡是我賴以生存的。
因斯基普：那麽，我們來談談更廣泛的影響吧。我們剛剛聽說了通貨膨脹，雖然沒有達到很高的水平，但正朝著錯誤的方向緩慢蔓延，導致經濟增長放緩。我立刻想到了20世紀70年代的那句老話——滯脹。我們麵臨這種風險嗎？
克魯格曼：可能隻是輕度滯脹。我的意思是，你知道，合理的數據顯示，我們可能正走向接近4%的通脹率。我們可能正走向——我們肯定會看到經濟放緩。至於它是否真的會跨越界限進入衰退，目前尚不清楚，但不會讓人感覺——感覺會很糟糕。
因斯基普：我在想麥當勞的數據，它似乎出現了分化。麥當勞的銷售額似乎是根據顧客的收入劃分的。低收入顧客似乎感到擔憂，減少了支出，麥當勞認為這和對關稅的擔憂有關。他們的整體銷售額略有增長，所以我想高收入人群，即使是收入略高一點的人群，也不太擔心。您對此有何看法？
克魯格曼：嗯，您想想——您知道，關稅本質上是一種選擇性銷售稅。它是對碰巧進口的商品征收的稅。無論特朗普怎麽說，外國人都不用繳納。美國消費者繳納的是銷售稅，而銷售稅是累退稅。底層人群（占人口30%或40%）的銷售稅負擔比1%的人群要重得多。所以，這正是您所預料的。那些迎合低收入消費者以及總體低收入消費者的產品將受到更大的衝擊，我們已經開始看到這一點了。我不得不說，我很驚訝我們這麽快就看到了，但它來了。
因斯基普：好吧，我們來談談事情可能的發展方向。今天節目中還有一位嘉賓，邁克·弗勒德。他是來自內布拉斯加州的共和黨眾議員。我問他關於關稅的問題，以及為什麽國會袖手旁觀，允許總統在貿易法庭認定這是國會的責任的情況下隨意增減稅收。他似乎對目前的形勢並不滿意，但他充滿希望。他說：“我們必須非常穩定。我們必須非常可預測。我們現在還沒有做到這一點，但我相信這一點，因為我希望這些貿易協議能夠達成。” 他希望至少給總統到聖誕節的時間。你覺得這個時間表怎麽樣？
克魯格曼：嗯，問題是，協議是什麽？我的意思是，據說我們和歐洲達成了協議，但根據協議，我們——歐洲賣給我們的所有產品仍然要征收15%的關稅。所以這看起來不像是什麽交易。而且事實證明，歐洲人並沒有真正承諾給我們多少回報。所以這些交易很大程度上隻是特朗普的臆想。我們真正看到的是，美國加征了一堆關稅，一些國家為了阻止他進一步提高關稅而說了好話，但實際上什麽也沒做。所以，除非法院裁定這整件事都是非法的——事實上確實如此——但我不知道他們是否會這樣裁定，否則我們就會麵臨這樣的處境。我們又回到了90年前的高關稅水平。
因斯基普：我想問一下這件事的另一個影響。蘋果公司首席執行官蒂姆·庫克昨天在白宮橢圓形辦公室向肯塔基州玻璃製造公司的總裁做了一個簡短的陳述。他說，我們不能像你最初要求的那樣在美國生產整部iPhone，但我們可以生產玻璃，我們會努力做到這一點。您是否認為美國工業界會真正努力將產業回流到美國本土，而這正是政府的目標之一？
克魯格曼：這將會非常有限。是的，會有一些邊緣性舉措。但是，你知道，當一位高管在與總統的一次重要會議上宣布類似的事情，並因此獲得一些關稅豁免時，你不得不懷疑這是否是真的，或者這是否是他們本來就打算做的事情，但你知道，假裝他們是在幫總統的忙顯然符合他們的利益。因此，將會有很多引人注目的投資公告，這些投資實際上並非額外的，隻是一些無關緊要的東西。
他們無論如何都會這麽做。
因斯基普：保羅·克魯格曼是紐約城市大學的經濟學家。非常感謝。與您交談總是一件愉快的事。
克魯格曼：謝謝。
文字記錄由NPR提供，版權歸NPR所有。NPR文字記錄由NPR承包商在緊急截稿時間內製作。本文可能並非最終版本，未來可能會更新或修訂。準確性和可用性可能會有所不同。NPR節目的權威記錄是音頻記錄。
Krugman on the impact of Trump's tariffs
https://www.wqln.org/2025-08-07/economist-paul-krugman-on-the-impact-of-trumps-tariffs
By Steve Inskeep August 7, 2025
STEVE INSKEEP, HOST:
Now we're joined by Paul Krugman, who's closely following all of this. He's an economist at the City University of New York and writes about economics on his Substack and has a Nobel Prize or something. Am I right, Mr. Krugman?
PAUL KRUGMAN: That's what they tell me.
INSKEEP: OK, excellent. Congratulations. Fifty percent tariff on coffee is one of the things that Scott Horsley just mentioned. So I'll also ask you, are you a coffee drinker?
KRUGMAN: I am. I'm extremely annoyed that we're exempting Brazilian orange juice, which I don't drink, and we're taxing the coffee, which is what I live on.
INSKEEP: So let's talk about the broader effects here. We just heard about inflation, not getting really high, but creeping in the wrong direction and slowing growth. I immediately think of that old phrase from the 1970s, stagflation. Are we at risk of that?
KRUGMAN: Probably a mild case. I mean, we're - you know, reasonable numbers say we might be heading for something closing in on 4% inflation. We might be heading for - we're definitely seeing a slowdown in the economy. Whether it actually crosses the line into a recession is less clear, but it's not going to feel - it's going to feel pretty bad.
INSKEEP: I was thinking about that McDonald's number, and it seemed to be divided. McDonald's sales seem to be divided based on the income of the customer. Lower-income customers seem worried and are spending less, and McDonald's thinks that concern about tariffs has something to do with it. Their overall sales are up a little bit, so I guess higher-income people, even slightly higher income, are less worried. What do you make of that?
KRUGMAN: Well, you want to think - you know, a tariff is basically a selective sales tax. It's a tax on goods that happen to be imported. It's - foreigners do not pay it, whatever Trump may say. U.S. consumers pay it, and sales taxes are regressive. Sales taxes fall much more heavily on people in the bottom, 30% or 40% of the population, than they do on the 1%. So it's exactly what you'd expect. It would be things that cater to lower-income consumers and generally lower-income consumers in general, are going to be hurting more, and we're already starting to see that. I have to say, I'm surprised we're seeing it so soon, but here it comes.
INSKEEP: Well, let's talk about where this might be going. We have elsewhere in the program today, Mike Flood. He's a Republican representative from Nebraska. And I asked him about tariffs and why Congress is sitting back and allowing the president to raise and lower taxes when a trade court is find this is - found this is Congress' responsibility. He didn't seem to love the current situation, but he was hopeful. He said, quote, "we have to be very stable. We have to be very predictable. We don't have that right now, but I'm buying into it because I want these trade deals done." He wants to give the president at least until Christmas. What do you think of that timeline?
KRUGMAN: Well, the question is, what is the deal? I mean, supposedly, we have a deal with Europe, but with the deal, we - it's still a 15% tariff on everything Europe sells us. So that doesn't look like much of a deal. And it turns out that the Europeans have not really promised us much in return. So the deals are largely a figment of Trump's imagination. What we're really seeing is that the United States went and imposed a bunch of tariffs, and a bunch of countries said nice things in order to keep him from raising them even higher, but they haven't actually done anything. So unless the courts rule that the whole thing is illegal, which it really is, but I don't know if they're going to rule it that way, this is where we are. We're back to tariffs as high as they were 90 years ago.
INSKEEP: Let me ask about another effect of this. Tim Cook, the head of Apple, was at the White House yesterday and made a little presentation in the Oval Office to the president of Kentucky-made glass. He said, we can't make the whole iPhone in the United States, as you originally requested, but we can make the glass, and we're going to work on that. Do you see real efforts by American industry to reshore industry, which was one of the administration's goals?
KRUGMAN: It's going to be really limited. Yeah, there'll be a few things at the margin. But, you know, when an executive announces something like that in a big meeting with the president and gets some tariff exemptions as part of it, you have to wonder whether this is real or whether this is something they were going to do anyway, but it's, you know, clearly in their interest to pretend that they're doing a favor for the president. And so there's going to be a lot of splashy announcements of investments that really aren't additional, that are really just stuff that they were going to do regardless.
INSKEEP: Paul Krugman is an economist at the City University of New York. Thanks very much. It's always a pleasure talking with you.
KRUGMAN: Thank you. Transcript provided by NPR, Copyright NPR.
NPR transcripts are created on a rush deadline by an NPR contractor. This text may not be in its final form and may be updated or revised in the future. Accuracy and availability may vary. The authoritative record of NPR’s programming is the audio record.
Steve Inskeep
Now we're joined by Paul Krugman, who's closely following all of this. He's an economist at the City University of New York and writes about economics on his Substack and has a Nobel Prize or something. Am I right, Mr. Krugman?
PAUL KRUGMAN: That's what they tell me.
INSKEEP: OK, excellent. Congratulations. Fifty percent tariff on coffee is one of the things that Scott Horsley just mentioned. So I'll also ask you, are you a coffee drinker?
KRUGMAN: I am. I'm extremely annoyed that we're exempting Brazilian orange juice, which I don't drink, and we're taxing the coffee, which is what I live on.
INSKEEP: So let's talk about the broader effects here. We just heard about inflation, not getting really high, but creeping in the wrong direction and slowing growth. I immediately think of that old phrase from the 1970s, stagflation. Are we at risk of that?
KRUGMAN: Probably a mild case. I mean, we're - you know, reasonable numbers say we might be heading for something closing in on 4% inflation. We might be heading for - we're definitely seeing a slowdown in the economy. Whether it actually crosses the line into a recession is less clear, but it's not going to feel - it's going to feel pretty bad.
INSKEEP: I was thinking about that McDonald's number, and it seemed to be divided. McDonald's sales seem to be divided based on the income of the customer. Lower-income customers seem worried and are spending less, and McDonald's thinks that concern about tariffs has something to do with it. Their overall sales are up a little bit, so I guess higher-income people, even slightly higher income, are less worried. What do you make of that?
KRUGMAN: Well, you want to think - you know, a tariff is basically a selective sales tax. It's a tax on goods that happen to be imported. It's - foreigners do not pay it, whatever Trump may say. U.S. consumers pay it, and sales taxes are regressive. Sales taxes fall much more heavily on people in the bottom, 30% or 40% of the population, than they do on the 1%. So it's exactly what you'd expect. It would be things that cater to lower-income consumers and generally lower-income consumers in general, are going to be hurting more, and we're already starting to see that. I have to say, I'm surprised we're seeing it so soon, but here it comes.
INSKEEP: Well, let's talk about where this might be going. We have elsewhere in the program today, Mike Flood. He's a Republican representative from Nebraska. And I asked him about tariffs and why Congress is sitting back and allowing the president to raise and lower taxes when a trade court is find this is - found this is Congress' responsibility. He didn't seem to love the current situation, but he was hopeful. He said, quote, "we have to be very stable. We have to be very predictable. We don't have that right now, but I'm buying into it because I want these trade deals done." He wants to give the president at least until Christmas. What do you think of that timeline?
KRUGMAN: Well, the question is, what is the deal? I mean, supposedly, we have a deal with Europe, but with the deal, we - it's still a 15% tariff on everything Europe sells us. So that doesn't look like much of a deal. And it turns out that the Europeans have not really promised us much in return. So the deals are largely a figment of Trump's imagination. What we're really seeing is that the United States went and imposed a bunch of tariffs, and a bunch of countries said nice things in order to keep him from raising them even higher, but they haven't actually done anything. So unless the courts rule that the whole thing is illegal, which it really is, but I don't know if they're going to rule it that way, this is where we are. We're back to tariffs as high as they were 90 years ago.
INSKEEP: Let me ask about another effect of this. Tim Cook, the head of Apple, was at the White House yesterday and made a little presentation in the Oval Office to the president of Kentucky-made glass. He said, we can't make the whole iPhone in the United States, as you originally requested, but we can make the glass, and we're going to work on that. Do you see real efforts by American industry to reshore industry, which was one of the administration's goals?
KRUGMAN: It's going to be really limited. Yeah, there'll be a few things at the margin. But, you know, when an executive announces something like that in a big meeting with the president and gets some tariff exemptions as part of it, you have to wonder whether this is real or whether this is something they were going to do anyway, but it's, you know, clearly in their interest to pretend that they're doing a favor for the president. And so there's going to be a lot of splashy announcements of investments that really aren't additional, that are really just stuff that they were going to do regardless.
INSKEEP: Paul Krugman is an economist at the City University of New York. Thanks very much. It's always a pleasure talking with you.
KRUGMAN: Thank you. Transcript provided by NPR, Copyright NPR.
NPR transcripts are created on a rush deadline by an NPR contractor. This text may not be in its final form and may be updated or revised in the future. Accuracy and availability may vary. The authoritative record of NPR’s programming is the audio record.
Steve InskeepSteve Inskeep is a host of NPR's Morning Edition, as well as NPR's morning news podcast Up First.
