投資很簡單,但並不容易

查理·芒格善於以多學科知識進行投資研究。他認為達爾文關於物種如何通過適應環境生存下來、物種間如何競爭或合作的理論,值得企業借鑒。對投資人來說也是需要掌握的基本思維模型。

那爛陀資本(Nalanda Capital)創始人普拉克·普拉薩德(Pulak Prasad)在芒格的啟發下,開始深入挖掘了達爾文學說的核心理念。他將自然界的鮮活案例與自身的投資實踐相結合,並整理成書《我從達爾文那裏學到的投資知識》。

本書中文版一經推出便受到國內讀者的廣泛好評,截止目前在豆瓣評分高達9.0。作者普拉克·普拉薩德為了表達感謝,特地寫了一封《致中國投資者的信》

以下為這封信的全文。


Hello readers:

讀者朋友們,你們好!

Have you ever imagined finding silver foxes, stock market valuations, honeybees, corporate debt, Darwin’s finches, and business excellence within the same book?  If not, I sincerely hope you will be pleasantly surprised by my book “What I Learned About Investing From Darwin.”  

你們是否想象過,能在一本書裏同時讀到銀狐、股市估值、蜜蜂、企業債務、地雀和卓越企業的故事?如果從未有過這樣的期待,那麽我希望我的著作《我從達爾文那裏學到的投資知識》能帶給你們驚喜。

To be clear, this is a book on equity investing, not the theory of evolution. I have incorporated core Darwinian principles to make the book more interesting and readable (I hope!), but at its heart, the book highlights my personal learnings as an investor in the Indian equity markets.

需要說明的是,這本書探討的是股票投資,而非進化論。我借鑒了達爾文的核心思想來增加趣味性和可讀性(但願如此!),但本質上,書中記錄的是我作為印度股市投資者的切身經驗。

But why should you learn from meWhat have I done to earn this honour? Let me highlight three key things. 

為何要向我學習?我有什麽資格?請容我列舉三個關鍵點:

First, I have been an investor for 27 years which, as many of you might agree, is a considerable amount of time to learn from one’s mistakes. These 27 years have witnessed six changes of central government in India, the global financial crisis, the global pandemic, the dotcom crash, significant changes in Indian regulations, and so much more.  In other words, as an equity investor, while I may not have experienced absolutely everything, I have been through enough, and my investing lessons have proven resilient over time.

第一,我擁有27年投資經驗。諸位想必認同,這段漫長歲月足以讓人從錯誤中成長。這27年間,印度經曆了六屆中央政府更迭、全球金融危機、新冠疫情大流行、互聯網泡沫破裂、監管體係重大變革等等。換言之,作為一名股權投資者,我雖未曆盡萬事,卻已飽經風霜,而我的投資心法也經受住了時間考驗。

Second, I learned from the best during my almost nine-year tenure at the private equity firm Warburg Pincus, before setting up my own fund (Nalanda) eighteen years ago. My stint at the global firm Warburg helped me internalise the simple – yet often underestimated – truth: core investing principles remain consistent across geographies and time periods.  

第二,在創立自家基金(那爛陀資本)前的年裏,我曾效力於私募巨頭華平投資。這段經曆讓我深刻領悟一個樸素卻常被忽視的真理:核心投資原則放之四海、曆久彌新。

And third, Nalanda has outperformed the market by close to double digits annually over the past eighteen years. It could have been luck, of course, but over eighteen years, there is probably some skill in there, too.  Our method has proven effective.  Very effective.  

第三,過去十八年,那爛陀資本的年化收益率持續跑贏市場近10個百分點。當然可能是運氣使然,但若能延續十八載,其中想必也有真功夫。我們的方法確實有效——極其有效。

Which brings us to the question: what is this “method” that has worked so well over almost two decades? Before delving into the method or the process, let’s define Nalanda’s investment philosophy, upon which this process is based.  Our investment approach can be summarised in just ten words: We want to be permanent owners of high-quality businesses

那麽,這個延續二十載的“方法”究竟是什麽? 在詳解方法前,請先了解那爛陀的投資哲學(方法正根植於此),它可用十個單詞概括:我們立誌成為高質量企業的永久所有者

The choice of words here is deliberate –when I say “permanent”, I truly mean permanent. When we invest, our intention is to stay invested in the business indefinitely, not just for an 8 to 10-year time frame.  Second, we aim to be “owners” of the business, not merely investors.  An owner is willing to stand by the business through its inevitable ups and downs, while an investor may feel no such obligation.  Note the two crucial words “high-quality”.  This is admittedly a somewhat vague term and can, and does, have different meanings for different investors.  The book not only details Nalanda’s specific definition of “high-quality” but also why this definition is likely to endure.  

這句話裏的每個措辭都經過深思熟慮:

  • 永久即字麵意義的永遠。我們的投資沒有8-10年退出期限,而是永續持有。

  • “所有者”意味著與企業共渡榮枯,而非僅當順境股東。

  • 高質量雖顯主觀(不同投資者定義各異),但本書不僅會闡明那爛陀的獨家定義,更將論證其曆久彌新的合理性。



If you accept the ten-word investment philosophy of Nalanda in the para above, then our three-step approach to investment success logically follows:

1.Avoid big risks

2.Buy high-quality at a fair price

3.Don’t be lazy – be very lazy

若你認同上述哲學,我們的三步驟投資法便順理成章:

1.規避重大風險

2.以合理價格高質量股票

3.不輕易買入,更不輕易賣出

In my opinion, the most critical skill an investor needs to learn is how not to invest.  Yes, refraining from investing is a skill in itself.  The majority of investing advice from investment gurus, finance academics, and fund managers focuses on making investments.  I contend that knowing when not to invest is a more challenging and ultimately more important skill to cultivate than learning how to invest.

我認為投資者最需掌握的技能其實是懂得不投資。沒錯,克製本身就是一種能力。當市麵上所有投資大師、金融學者和基金經理都在教人“如何投”時,我要說:知所不投,遠比知所投更難,也更重要

So, when should we refrain from investing? When the risk is substantial.  The book provides numerous examples of high-risk investments, some of which include: businesses run by crooks, turnaround situations, unproven business models, balance sheet loaded with debt, and many others.  At Nalanda, most of our time is spent saying “No”.  Avoiding substantial risks has allowed us to take calculated ones.

何時該按兵不動?當風險過高時。 書中列舉了大量高風險投資案例:騙子經營的企業、困境反轉股、未經驗證的商業模式、債台高築的公司等等。在那爛陀,我們大部分時間都在說“不”。正是這種規避,才讓我們能精準出擊。

This brings me to the second component of our investment approach: Buy high-quality at a fair price. Sounds simple, doesn’t it?  Not so fast.  Do you believe any sane investment manager would ever claim to buy “low-quality at a high price”?  Of course not.  Every long-term investor professes to emulate the Buffetesque strategy of buying quality at a sensible valuation.  But then why do the portfolio holdings of different fund managers vary so considerably, and why are most unable to beat the market over the long term?  This discrepancy arises because each fund manager has their own unique definition of “high-quality” and “fair price”.  Nalanda has its own definitions for these two critical terms, which I have discussed in the book over six different chapters.  Indeed, defining quality and price requires considerable effort!

第二步驟以合理價格購入高質量股票”聽起來簡單,實則不然。難道有基金經理會宣稱自己“以高價買劣質資產”嗎?當然不會。所有長期投資者都標榜效仿巴菲特——以合理估值買入優質資產。但為何各家的持倉天差地別?為何多數人長期無法跑贏市場?症結在於:每個人對高質量”和“合理”的定義不同。本書用六個章節詳解那爛陀的定義體係——定義質量與價格本就是門學問!

While most fund managers would concur with the first two elements of our investing process, most will diverge on our third principle: Don’t be lazy – be very lazy.  The majority (if not all) investors eventually sell their investments.  We don’t.  We are very lazy when it comes to selling quality businesses.  If you are a professional or a retail investor reading this, your initial thought might be: What if the valuation becomes excessive?  Well, across three chapters I have addressed this and many other questions concerning the benefits of never selling a quality business.  I have used real-world examples from Nalanda to illustrate why being “lazy” might not seem intuitively sound to an investor initially but can ultimately lead to superior long-term results.

對於第三步驟不輕易買賣”,多數基金經理恐怕難以苟同。幾乎所有投資者最終都會賣出持倉,但我們不會。麵對優質企業,我們懶惰至極。專業投資者或散戶此刻或許會問:若估值過高也不賣嗎? 本書用三個章節結合那爛陀的真實案例,論證為何這種“懶惰”雖反直覺,卻能締造長期超額收益。

One final point. I would consider my objective in writing this book achieved if, upon finishing it, you come to appreciate the following truth: investing is simple, but it is not easy. 

最後,若讀完本書後你能領悟一個真理,我便算達成所願:投資很簡單,卻不容易

Enjoy!

登錄後才可評論.