應對人口挑戰並非不可能
Joe Bish 2020 年 6 月 30 日
Joe Bish 是人口媒體中心問題宣傳總監。
https://archive-yaleglobal.yale.edu/content/addressing-population-challenge-not-impossible
社會可以通過教育、避孕和重視可持續性來避免世界人口達到 108 億以及相關災難
耶魯全球在線
世界麵臨著不可持續的人口增長。一些研究人員認為，以每公頃可耕地兩人為基礎的人口是可持續的，而 160 萬公頃可耕地可以養活 32 億人，不到目前人口的一半。地球人口在 50 年內翻了一番，到本世紀末可能接近 110 億。“但人類人口規模和增長並不是棘手的問題，”人口媒體中心宣傳問題總監 Joe Bish 解釋道。 “推動人口持續增長的因素是可以理解和糾正的。這些因素來自人口勢頭、全球高生育期望、婦女和女孩地位低下以及對避孕的偏見等因素的結合。”世界上一些最貧窮的國家生育率很高，每名男性生育超過 7 個孩子，而富裕國家的生育率卻下降，許多國家低於更替水平。Bish 強調長期解決方案，包括教育、依賴避孕和計劃生育計劃以及強調個人機會。– YaleGlobal
美好生活：即使生育率放緩，到本世紀末世界人口仍將超過 100 億——伊朗在 10 年內將生育率減半，左圖，而到 2050 年非洲將占世界人口增長的一半來源：euters)
佛蒙特州南伯靈頓：人類文明麵臨著可持續糧食產量與全球人口規模之間嚴重的長期不匹配。一些專家認為，每公頃可耕地大約有兩人的人口規模在生態上是可持續的。如果是這樣，擁有 160 萬公頃可耕地的地球可以永久養活 32 億人。這還不到目前 78 億人口的一半。
此外，在一切照舊的情況下，聯合國人口統計學家預計到 2050 年地球將有 97 億人。僅就糧食生產而言，這一數字是可持續的人類負荷的三倍多。短期內，通過不可持續的做法，如依賴不可再生能源和化肥、殺蟲劑和過度抽取地下水進行灌溉，可以養活這麽多人。工程師伯納德·吉蘭德 (Bernard Gilland) 等人發出的警告傳達了一個簡單而令人不安的教訓：自 1960 年以來人口已經翻了一番的人類，發現自己正處於進退維穀的生態困境之中。
緩慢下降：世界生育率自 1960 年以來一直在下降（世界銀行）
但人類人口規模和增長並不是難以解決的問題。推動人口持續增長的因素是可以理解和糾正的。這些因素來自人口勢頭、全球高生育期望觀念、婦女和女孩地位低下以及對避孕的偏見。後者主要基於謠言、神話、錯誤信息和對婦女偏好的壓製。
撒哈拉以南非洲地區超過五個孩子的生育率尤其表明了這些不公平和令人不安的動態。例如，在三個非洲國家進行的一項研究發現，62% 的肯尼亞女性受訪者認為避孕藥會導致嬰兒畸形。該國接受調查的女性中超過 55% 認為避孕藥可能導致癌症。巴基斯坦的一項研究發現，女性常常被勸阻不要使用避孕措施，因為她們認為生育能力是由上帝的意誌決定的，或者計劃生育的決定應該完全由丈夫做出。
當然，很難誇大男性在理想化和渴望大家庭規模方麵的作用。例如，在撒哈拉以南非洲的每個國家，男性的理想子女數量都超過了更替水平的生育率。在尼日利亞，男性平均想要 7 個以上的孩子。馬裏的男性想要 8.1 個孩子。2017 年的一項研究表明，撒哈拉以南非洲至少有 20 個國家的實際男性生育率高於每名男性 8.5 個孩子。尼日爾的男性生育率最高，為每名男性 13.6 個孩子；南蘇丹為 13.5 個孩子；乍得為 12.1 個孩子。這些數字大大超過了這些國家女性的實際生育率。這是因為，平均而言，男性開始養育孩子的年齡比女性大得多，而當時男性群體的規模比年輕女性群體的規模要小得多。年輕女性可以選擇的潛在父親相對較少。再加上社會規範認可一夫多妻製，父權製對女性的控製得以延續
生命和身體，並對現代避孕產生偏見，因此，到 2050 年，全球人口預計將增加 20 億，而非洲國家將占到 50% 以上，這也就不足為奇了。
然而，值得記住的是，我們都身處其中。將我們集體的生態困境“歸咎於受害者”——尤其是非洲被剝奪權利和受到社會壓迫的婦女和女孩——不僅是不道德的，而且也是我們最先進的解決方案無法解決的。毫無疑問，在 21 世紀解決人口問題在很大程度上意味著反對導致高生育率的壓迫性文化習俗和社會弊病。無論在哪裏，婦女的社會權力受到抑製，她們的自決權和生多少孩子、何時生孩子的真正選擇權也會受到抑製。
我們痛苦、難以麵對的可持續性緊急情況可能令人難以承受。世界已經深陷生態超調，全球人口增長還遠未結束，更不用說自然減少了。盡管如此，政府、民間社會和多邊機構仍應采取積極措施，並注重負責任的行動。令人高興的是，人口增長的驅動因素都有已知的解決方案，其中許多解決方案已在日常工作中得到部署。應優先考慮大規模和即時的投資以實現更大規模。誠然，今天逐步解決人口增長的驅動因素不會在明天在地球上創造可持續的人類存在，但承擔代際責任意味著反對放任不管的人口宿命論。
不平等：較低的生育率與教育和財富有關（來源：聯合國人口司）
在很大程度上得益於 20 世紀的計劃生育計劃，生育率已從 20 世紀 60 年代中期的全球平均生育超過 5 個孩子下降了一半以上。除了可持續糧食生產問題之外，其他進步也預示著人類與地球之間更健康的關係。例如，可再生能源生產現在占全球發電量的 25%。自然權利終於在法律體係中得到承認。新冠疫情造成的深刻混亂為世界提供了一個反思的機會，即在 78 億人類同胞的陪伴下，什麽才是有意義的、令人滿意的生活。
重要的是，當關於可持續性的辯論必然涉及人類人口動態時，它們絕不應該為脅迫的想法提供可信度。將人口困境呈現為二元對立，其中被視為必要的事情——人口增長的結束和人口自然減少——隻能通過犯罪或脅迫來實現，這是失敗主義和誤導性的。大多數實現生育率下降的國家都是自願的，采用人權方法。
伊朗全麵的國家計劃生育計劃導致 1986 年至 2000 年間總生育率下降了 64%。泰國每名婦女的平均生育數量從 1970 年代的 7 個急劇下降到 1980 年代的 2.1 個“更替水平”以下。這些努力是無可辯駁的證據，表明突出的、毫無顧忌的公共討論和影響人口趨勢的運動——結合教育、婦女解放以及計劃生育信息和服務，可以產生迅速而有意義的結果。
有趣的是，當脅迫的話題浮出水麵時，大多數人會想到令人憎惡的、反生育的、國家批準的“人口控製”政策。反對這些愚蠢的行為是容易和適當的，比如 1990 年至 2000 年間對 30 萬秘魯人（其中大部分是女性）實施的赤裸裸的暴政。前總統阿爾貝托·藤森自 2009 年以來因多次侵犯人權而被監禁，他以國家計劃生育計劃的名義實施了一項絕育計劃——其中大多數是以某種方式強迫的。
然而，政府幹預也帶有鼓勵生育的傾向。通過羞辱、誤導和現金支付來刺激家庭生育更多孩子是常見的做法。 2015 年，馬來西亞婦女、家庭和社會發展部部長在議會上表示，生育率下降是“該部鼓勵夫婦不要過於關注生活質量，而要為國家的長遠利益而生孩子”的原因。然後是丹麥在 2014 年發起的一場古怪的公關活動——“為丹麥而生！”最近，新加坡、俄羅斯和澳大利亞等國都推出了所謂的嬰兒獎勵計劃。土耳其則采取了更具軍事主義傾向的政策。從全球生態角度來看，這些“促進增長”的計劃完全是瘋狂的。
當今全球人口增長存在長期解決方案。
首先，人口增長勢頭可以通過“低於替代水平的生育率”來緩解，全球已有 110 個國家實現了這一目標。日本、
意大利、葡萄牙和波蘭的生育率均低於每名婦女 1.5 個孩子，這些國家都不受人口增長勢頭的影響，目前正在經曆人口自然減少。這些國家都沒有停止運轉，也沒有經曆過生存災難。事實上，它們是最終將成為全球現象的先鋒。
增長放緩：生育率可能迅速下降，各國按當前生育率列出（來源：我們的數據世界和世界銀行）
低於替代水平的生育率出現的最關鍵條件是不受限製地獲得和使用現代避孕措施。曆史告訴我們，大多數女性一旦獲得真正的選擇自由，就不會選擇生育兩個以上的孩子。懷孕會給女性帶來健康風險，尤其是 35 歲以上的女性，而多年照顧幼兒的責任可能會幹擾其他個人追求。孩子較少的家庭報告的財富積累更多。
人口增長的其他主要驅動因素可以描述為規範性或信息性。社會規範是社區中每個人都接受並在很大程度上期望的日常習慣、不成文的規則和規範化的行為。這適用於更高的生育期望以及與婦女和女孩地位低下有關的問題。Project Drawdown 將女孩教育和計劃生育相結合視為最有力的氣候解決方案之一。
政府和民間社會可以輕鬆利用行之有效的解決方案來遏製人口增長的這些規範性和信息性因素。數十年來，社會和行為改變科學領域的研究表明，讓人們參與理論驅動的娛樂教育可以激發人們拒絕壓迫性社會規範的情感和心理欲望，同時也提供開拓新社會規範所需的工具和信心。例如，研究人員和非政府組織認為電視劇是巴西生育率從 1960 年的 6 個以上孩子下降到 2017 年的 1.7 個孩子的原因。當然，這些舉措必須伴隨持續保證負擔得起、可獲得的生殖健康商品和服務。
2019 年，聯合國人口司預測，在一切照舊的情況下，到 2100 年，全球人口將超過 108 億。盡管由於教育、城市化和避孕措施的使用，人口增長率繼續下降，但名義年增長率仍保持在 8200 萬左右。這是因為較低的增長率作用於近 80 億的龐大“基數”人口。
因此，沒有人應該指望地球在我們的有生之年承載 32 億人口的負擔——但我們也應該盡一切努力避免 108 億的人口負擔。我們可以采取措施確保子孫後代不再增長，並且確實正在朝著與地球更好的平衡邁進。教育公民了解自 1960 年代以來增加了一倍以上的全球人口的生態困境是一項必不可少的工作。但結果不能是讓實現真正可持續發展的努力陷入絕望。關心此事的公民必須擁抱積極思考的力量並推動全球朝著可持續農業、可持續人口、遏製氣候變化和其他環境威脅的方向做出巨大改變。
Addressing Population Challenge Is Not Impossible
SOUTH BURLINGTON, VERMONT: Human civilization faces a severe long-range mismatch between sustainable food yields and global population size. Some experts suggest a population sized at approximately two people per arable hectare would be ecologically sustainable. If so, with 1.6 million arable hectares, the planet could support 3.2 billion people in perpetuity. This is less than half the current 7.8 billion.
Moreover, in a business as usual scenario, by the year 2050 United Nation demographers expect 9.7 billion people to call Earth home. Just in terms of food production, this is more than three times the human load considered sustainable. Feeding that many is possible, in the short term, through unsustainable practices, such as reliance on non-renewable energy and fertilizers, pesticides and over-pumping groundwater for irrigation. Warnings to this effect, such as those posed by engineer Bernard Gilland, convey a simple and uncomfortable lesson: that humanity, whose population has already doubled since 1960, finds itself quantifiably between a rock and an ecological hard place.
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Slow decline: World fertility rates have declined since 1960 (World Bank)
But human population size and growth are not intractable problems. The factors driving ongoing population increases are understood and amendable. They come from a combination of population momentum, notions of high-desired fertility around the globe, low status of women and girls and bias against contraception. The latter is based primarily on rumors, myths, misinformation and subjugation of women’s preferences.
Fertility rates of more than five children in sub-Saharan Africa are especially indicative of these unjust and troubling dynamics. For example, a study conducted in three African countries found that 62 percent of female respondents in Kenya thought contraceptives could result in deformed babies. More than 55 percent of women surveyed in that country suggested contraceptives could cause cancer. A study in Pakistan found that women are often dissuaded from using contraception because of the belief that fertility is determined by God’s will or that family-planning decisions should be made solely by husbands.
Certainly, it would be hard to overstate men’s roles in idealizing and aspiring to large family sizes. For example, in every country in sub-Saharan Africa, the ideal number of children for men exceeds replacement level fertility. In Nigeria, the average man wants over 7 children. Men in Mali want 8.1 children. A 2017 study indicated that realized male fertility in sub-Saharan Africa was above 8.5 children per man in at least 20 countries. The highest male fertility levels were observed in Niger, at 13.6 children per man; South Sudan, 13.5 children; and Chad, 12.1 children. These figures greatly exceed realized fertility for women in those countries. This is because, on average, men began parenting children at much older ages than women did, when the cohort size of males is much smaller than that of their younger female counterparts. Relatively few potential fathers are available for younger women. Coupled with social norms that sanction polygamy, perpetuate patriarchal control of women’s lives and bodies, and create bias against modern contraception, it is little wonder that of the 2 billion increase in population expected worldwide by 2050, African nations will combine to contribute more than 50 percent.
Yet, it is worth remembering that we are all in this together. “Blaming victims” for our collective ecological predicament – especially disempowered and socially repressed women and girls in Africa – is not merely immoral, it also eludes our most progressive solutions. Make no mistake, working on the population issue in the 21st century largely means working against oppressive cultural practices and social maladies that contribute to high fertility. Wherever women’s social power is inhibited, their self-determination and true choice in how many children to have, and when, is also inhibited.
Our painful, difficult-to-face, sustainability emergency can be overwhelming to contemplate. The world is already deep into ecological overshoot, and the global population is not yet anywhere near to ending its growth, to say nothing of natural decreases. Still, governments, civil society and multilateral agencies should take proactive steps and focus on responsible action. Pleasingly, the drivers of population growth all have known solutions, many of which already deployed on a daily basis. Large and immediate investments towards achieving greater scale should be prioritized. It is true that progressively addressing the drivers of population growth today will not create a sustainably sized human presence on the planet tomorrow, but embracing intergenerational responsibility means opposing laissez faire demographic fatalism.
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Inequality: Lower fertility rates are associated with education and wealth (Source: UN Population Division)
Thanks in large part to 20th century family planning programs, fertility rates have more than halved from a global average of over five children in the mid-1960s. Looking beyond just the sustainable food production issue, other advances also harken towards a healthier human relationship with Earth. For example, renewable energy production now represents 25 percent of global electricity generation. The rights of nature are finally being recognized in legal systems. The profound dislocations of the Covid-19 pandemic have provided an opportunity for the world to reflect on what constitutes a rewarding, satisfying existence in the company of 7.8 billion fellow humans.
Importantly, when debates on sustainability necessarily include human population dynamics, they should never lend credibility to the idea of coercion. Presenting the population predicament as a binary, where what is deemed necessary – the end of population growth and its natural decrease – can only be achieved by crimes, or coercion, is defeatist and misleading. Most countries that have achieved fertility decreases have done so voluntarily, using human rights approaches.
Iran’s comprehensive national family planning program resulted in a 64 percent decline in the total fertility rate between 1986 and 2000. Thailand’s average number of births per woman dropped precipitously from seven in the 1970s to well below the “replacement-level” of 2.1 in the 1980s. These efforts represent irrefutable evidence that prominent, unembarrassed public discourse and campaigning to affect population trends — in combination with education, women’s emancipation, and family planning information and services, can yield swift, meaningful results.
Interestingly, when the topic of coercion surfaces, most think of abhorrent, anti-natalist, state-sanctioned “population control” policies. It is easy and appropriate to oppose these idiocies, such as the rank tyranny, imposed on 300,000 Peruvians, mostly women, between 1990 and 2000. Former President Alberto Fujimori, imprisoned since 2009 for multiple human rights violations implemented a sterilization program – most of them forced in one way or another – under the guise of a national family planning program.
Yet, government meddling also comes in the pronatalist vein. Goading families to have more children by shaming, misinformation and cash payments is common practice. In 2015, the Minister of Women, Family and Community Development in Malaysia told parliament that falling fertility was why “the ministry encourages couples not to be so focused on quality of life, but to also have children for the long-term benefit of the country.” Then there was the outlandish public relations campaign launched by Denmark in 2014 – “Do it for Denmark!” So-called baby bonus efforts have recently taken place in Singapore, Russia and Australia to name just a few. A more militaristic slant comes from Turkey. Seen from a global ecological perspective, these “pro-growth” schemes are utter madness.
There are long-term solutions to today’s global population growth.
First, population momentum can be mitigated by “sub-replacement fertility,” which 110 countries around the world have already achieved. Japan, Italy, Portugal and Poland – all with fertility rates below 1.5 children per woman – are beyond the effects of population momentum and currently experiencing natural population decreases. None have stopped functioning nor experienced existential disaster. Indeed, they are the vanguard for what eventually will become a global phenomenon.
Slowed growth: Fertility rates can fall rapidly, and nations are listed with current rate (Source: Our World in Data and World Bank)
The most critical conditions for sub-replacement fertility to manifest are unrestricted access to, and agency to use, modern contraception. History shows us that most women do not choose to have more than two children once they attain true freedom of choice. Pregnancies can pose health risks for women, especially those over age 35, and the responsibility of caring for young children over many years can interfere with other personal pursuits. Families with fewer children report greater wealth accumulation.
Other major drivers of population growth can be described as either normative or informational. Social norms are the daily habits, unwritten rules and normalized behaviors that everyone in the community accepts, and to a large degree, expects. This applies to higher desired fertility and issues related to the low status of women and girls. Project Drawdown identifies the combination of a girl’s education and family planning as one of the most powerful climate solutions available.
Governments and civil society can easily avail themselves of proven solutions to curtail such normative and informational contributors to population growth. Decades of work in the social and behavior change sciences have shown that engaging people with theory-driven entertainment-education can spark emotive, psychological desires to reject oppressive social norms, while also providing the tools and confidence necessary to pioneer new social norms. For example, researchers and NGOs have credited telenovelas for the reduction in Brazil’s fertility rate from more than six children in 1960 to 1.7 in 2017. Of course, continual assurance of affordable, accessible reproductive health commodities and services must accompany such initiatives.
In 2019, the UN Population Division projected that, in a business as usual scenario, global population would top 10.8 billion by the year 2100. Even though the growth rate of population continues its welcome decline due to education, urbanization and utilization of contraception, nominal annual increases remain elevated at around 82 million per year. This is because the lower growth rate acts on an enormous “base” population of almost 8 billion.
Hence, no one should expect the planet to carry a 3.2 billion human population load in our lifetimes — but we should also do all within our power to avoid the 10.8 billion scenario. We can take steps to ensure future generations are no longer growing and, indeed, are moving towards a better equilibrium with the planet. Educating citizens about the ecological predicament of a global population that has more than doubled since the 1960s is an essential exercise. But the outcome cannot be to create hopelessness around efforts towards bona fide sustainability. Concerned citizens must embrace the power of positive thinking and agitate for a sea change in global efforts towards sustainable agriculture, sustainable population, the stemming of climate change and other environmental threats.
