我以前曾經寫過一篇介紹美國曆史房價和房價指數的文章(文章鏈接),裏麵提到過,美國各個都市區(MSA)比較準確的房價指數,無論是FHFA房價指數,還是Freddie Mac 房價指數,數據最早隻能追溯到1975年,其中Freddie Mac 都市區房價指數最為全麵。這裏結合Freddie Mac 都市區房價指數,簡單介紹一下自1975年開始近半個世紀以來,美國發生的三次大的地產崩盤,它們分別是:
房地產是有地域性的,並且各個地區的周期也不是完全相同的。
在這三次大的崩盤當中,最近一次的次貸危機是最慘烈的一次,盡管像德州等很少幾個地區在次貸危機中房價所受影響不大,但總體上說次貸危機是接近全國性的。
而前兩次崩盤則是局部性的,如果僅僅從名義房價指數(不計通脹)來看,甚至都看不出前兩次崩盤的存在(下圖中藍線),主要是因為通貨膨脹把它們給掩蓋住了。當然也由於它們的局部性,對全國指數的整體影響也就沒有次貸危機那麽大。但如果過濾掉通貨膨脹,前兩次崩盤(下圖中橙色線)還是非常明顯的,甚至在有些地區,還是相當慘烈的:
這裏按照發生的先後順序簡單介紹一下。
一.八十年代的石油危機
美國的經濟從七十年代開始,就已經開始變差,二戰的紅利早已耗盡,又打了一場毫無意義耗費巨大的越南戰爭,到1971年美元正式跟黃金剝離,布雷頓森林體係的終結,美國經濟開始了嚴重的滯脹期,就是高通脹率和高失業率並存。到七十年代末盡管經濟有短暫的反彈,但從1978年到1983年又連續經曆了兩次經濟衰退。
正可謂屋漏偏逢連夜雨,許多經濟嚴重依賴於石油產業的地區,除了遭受經濟衰退的打擊外,又恰逢石油過剩和石油價格暴跌。本來早前1978~1979年發生的伊朗革命造成了短暫的石油短缺而使石油價格飆升,至1980年時曾一度飆升至$39.50/桶(相當於現在$132/桶),但隨後價格開始暴跌,到1986年最低時竟跌到$10.4/桶(相當於現在$26/桶)。
多重危機沉重打擊了石油重鎮的經濟和地產業,這些地區包括德州,俄克拉荷馬州,路易斯安那州,阿拉斯加州等,其中石油之都休斯頓便是重災區之一,據說當時是哀鴻滿地,慘不忍睹。以下是此次崩盤中價格下跌最厲害的地區(Freddie Mac房價指數總共涵蓋了382個都市區,沒在名單之列的說明在此次危機中房價沒有明顯的下跌,畢竟這不是光榮榜,後麵的表格也一樣):
Metro | Percentage | Peak | Trough |
Casper WY | -50 | 1982/01 | 1988/04 |
Enid OK | -44 | 1982/09 | 1988/09 |
Lafayette LA | -39 | 1982/06 | 1988/10 |
Anchorage AK | -39 | 1984/09 | 1990/01 |
Fairbanks AK | -38 | 1984/09 | 1990/01 |
Midland TX | -35 | 1982/04 | 1987/12 |
Grand Junction CO | -34 | 1982/11 | 1985/10 |
Odessa TX | -34 | 1982/10 | 1989/12 |
Austin-Round Rock TX | -28 | 1985/09 | 1989/12 |
Oklahoma City OK | -28 | 1983/07 | 1988/09 |
Abilene TX | -26 | 1982/10 | 1989/12 |
Houma-Thibodaux LA | -25 | 1982/04 | 1988/11 |
Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land TX | -24 | 1982/10 | 1987/12 |
Niles-Benton Harbor MI | -22 | 1982/01 | 1982/11 |
Bay City MI | -21 | 1982/01 | 1982/11 |
Jackson MI | -21 | 1982/01 | 1982/11 |
Waterloo-Cedar Falls IA | -21 | 1982/04 | 1988/01 |
Brownsville-Harlingen TX | -20 | 1982/04 | 1989/01 |
Detroit-Warren-Dearborn MI | -20 | 1982/01 | 1982/11 |
Peoria IL | -20 | 1982/01 | 1986/01 |
Saginaw MI | -20 | 1982/01 | 1982/11 |
Flint MI | -19 | 1982/01 | 1982/11 |
Grand Island NE | -19 | 1982/08 | 1987/08 |
Monroe MI | -19 | 1982/01 | 1982/11 |
Muskegon MI | -19 | 1982/01 | 1982/11 |
Ann Arbor MI | -18 | 1982/01 | 1982/11 |
Baton Rouge LA | -18 | 1983/11 | 1989/02 |
Kalamazoo-Portage MI | -18 | 1982/01 | 1982/11 |
Lansing-East Lansing MI | -18 | 1982/01 | 1982/11 |
Tulsa OK | -18 | 1983/07 | 1988/09 |
Victoria TX | -18 | 1982/10 | 1989/01 |
Battle Creek MI | -17 | 1982/01 | 1982/11 |
San Antonio-New Braunfels TX | -17 | 1986/05 | 1989/12 |
Billings MT | -16 | 1983/10 | 1988/02 |
Grand Rapids-Wyoming MI | -16 | 1982/01 | 1982/11 |
Kennewick-Richland WA | -16 | 1982/02 | 1988/07 |
McAllen-Edinburg-Mission TX | -16 | 1982/10 | 1989/01 |
Midland MI | -16 | 1982/01 | 1982/11 |
Beaumont-Port Arthur TX | -15 | 1982/10 | 1987/12 |
Corpus Christi TX | -15 | 1982/10 | 1989/01 |
Davenport-Moline-Rock Island IA-IL | -15 | 1983/08 | 1988/01 |
Farmington NM | -15 | 1982/07 | 1988/12 |
Beckley WV | -14 | 1983/11 | 1988/11 |
Corvallis OR | -14 | 1983/01 | 1986/10 |
Laredo TX | -14 | 1982/10 | 1987/12 |
Amarillo TX | -13 | 1984/08 | 1989/12 |
College Station-Bryan TX | -13 | 1984/08 | 1989/12 |
Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington TX | -13 | 1986/05 | 1989/02 |
Longview WA | -13 | 1982/01 | 1982/09 |
New Orleans-Metairie LA | -13 | 1984/06 | 1989/03 |
Shreveport-Bossier City LA | -13 | 1986/05 | 1989/02 |
Tyler TX | -13 | 1986/05 | 1989/12 |
Bend-Redmond OR | -12 | 1982/12 | 1984/08 |
Lake Charles LA | -12 | 1982/05 | 1988/03 |
Ocala FL | -12 | 1984/08 | 1986/01 |
Coeur d'Alene ID | -11 | 1983/01 | 1987/11 |
Eugene OR | -11 | 1982/11 | 1984/07 |
Hammond LA | -11 | 1987/05 | 1989/02 |
San Angelo TX | -11 | 1982/10 | 1989/02 |
Atlantic City-Hammonton NJ | -10 | 1982/01 | 1983/04 |
Bismarck ND | -10 | 1984/03 | 1988/03 |
Charleston WV | -10 | 1983/11 | 1985/12 |
Duluth MN-WI | -10 | 1982/02 | 1985/07 |
Great Falls MT | -10 | 1986/02 | 1988/01 |
Killeen-Temple TX | -10 | 1986/07 | 1989/12 |
Lawton OK | -10 | 1986/05 | 1988/10 |
Morgantown WV | -10 | 1982/01 | 1982/08 |
Sebastian-Vero Beach FL | -10 | 1982/09 | 1986/01 |
Spokane-Spokane Valley WA | -10 | 1982/03 | 1982/09 |
Bellingham WA | -9 | 1982/04 | 1986/12 |
Decatur IL | -9 | 1982/01 | 1982/12 |
Denver-Aurora-Lakewood CO | -9 | 1986/05 | 1989/03 |
Monroe LA | -9 | 1985/06 | 1989/01 |
Mount Vernon-Anacortes WA | -9 | 1982/03 | 1982/09 |
Parkersburg-Vienna WV | -9 | 1982/01 | 1982/08 |
Salt Lake City UT | -9 | 1987/03 | 1989/01 |
Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue WA | -9 | 1982/03 | 1982/09 |
Sherman-Denison TX | -9 | 1987/03 | 1989/12 |
Walla Walla WA | -9 | 1982/03 | 1982/09 |
Wichita Falls TX | -9 | 1986/05 | 1989/01 |
Bremerton-Silverdale WA | -8 | 1982/03 | 1982/09 |
Columbus IN | -8 | 1982/01 | 1982/10 |
Danville IL | -8 | 1982/01 | 1982/12 |
Greeley CO | -8 | 1986/05 | 1989/02 |
Greenville-Anderson-Mauldin SC | -8 | 1982/01 | 1982/11 |
Johnstown PA | -8 | 1982/01 | 1985/03 |
Las Vegas-Henderson-Paradise NV | -8 | 1982/08 | 1984/10 |
Logan UT-ID | -8 | 1983/06 | 1987/09 |
Longview TX | -8 | 1983/11 | 1989/01 |
Olympia-Tumwater WA | -8 | 1982/03 | 1982/09 |
Springfield IL | -8 | 1982/01 | 1982/12 |
Wenatchee WA | -8 | 1982/03 | 1982/09 |
Yakima WA | -8 | 1982/03 | 1982/09 |
Dubuque IA | -7 | 1982/01 | 1985/04 |
Fresno CA | -7 | 1982/04 | 1983/12 |
Gainesville FL | -7 | 1982/09 | 1984/11 |
Grand Forks ND-MN | -7 | 1982/01 | 1982/07 |
Gulfport-Biloxi-Pascagoula MS | -7 | 1986/04 | 1989/03 |
Huntington-Ashland WV-KY-OH | -7 | 1982/01 | 1982/08 |
Madera CA | -7 | 1982/04 | 1984/01 |
Medford OR | -7 | 1984/12 | 1986/03 |
Memphis TN-MS-AR | -7 | 1983/08 | 1984/06 |
Michigan City-La Porte IN | -7 | 1982/01 | 1982/10 |
Missoula MT | -7 | 1982/01 | 1982/10 |
Pocatello ID | -7 | 1986/06 | 1988/08 |
Portland-Vancouver-Hillsboro OR-WA | -7 | 1984/12 | 1986/03 |
Redding CA | -7 | 1982/04 | 1984/01 |
Bridgeport-Stamford-Norwalk CT | -6 | 1987/08 | 1989/12 |
Cape Coral-Fort Myers FL | -6 | 1982/09 | 1983/12 |
Cheyenne WY | -6 | 1987/02 | 1988/04 |
Colorado Springs CO | -6 | 1987/03 | 1989/03 |
Indianapolis-Carmel-Anderson IN | -6 | 1982/01 | 1982/10 |
Kokomo IN | -6 | 1982/01 | 1982/10 |
Lafayette-West Lafayette IN | -6 | 1982/01 | 1982/10 |
Lubbock TX | -6 | 1986/05 | 1989/01 |
Minneapolis-St. Paul-Bloomington MN-W | -6 | 1985/03 | 1985/07 |
Morristown TN | -6 | 1983/10 | 1984/07 |
South Bend-Mishawaka IN-MI | -6 | 1982/01 | 1982/10 |
Terre Haute IN | -6 | 1982/01 | 1982/10 |
Texarkana TX-AR | -6 | 1983/10 | 1989/01 |
Waco TX | -6 | 1987/03 | 1989/01 |
Weirton-Steubenville WV-OH | -6 | 1982/01 | 1982/06 |
Wheeling WV-OH | -6 | 1982/01 | 1982/06 |
Alexandria LA | -5 | 1986/05 | 1989/12 |
Bloomington IN | -5 | 1982/01 | 1982/10 |
Canton-Massillon OH | -5 | 1982/01 | 1982/06 |
Chico CA | -5 | 1982/05 | 1986/01 |
El Paso TX | -5 | 1986/07 | 1987/12 |
Hot Springs AR | -5 | 1986/04 | 1988/01 |
Jackson MS | -5 | 1985/07 | 1989/03 |
Jackson TN | -5 | 1983/11 | 1984/07 |
Johnson City TN | -5 | 1983/10 | 1984/06 |
Knoxville TN | -5 | 1983/10 | 1984/07 |
Lebanon PA | -5 | 1982/01 | 1983/01 |
Lima OH | -5 | 1982/01 | 1982/06 |
Mansfield OH | -5 | 1982/01 | 1982/06 |
Miami-Fort Lauderdale-West Palm Beach | -5 | 1982/09 | 1985/07 |
Ocean City NJ | -5 | 1982/03 | 1983/03 |
Ogden-Clearfield UT | -5 | 1986/06 | 1988/12 |
Pine Bluff AR | -5 | 1987/05 | 1989/04 |
Provo-Orem UT | -5 | 1983/06 | 1987/10 |
Rochester MN | -5 | 1982/01 | 1982/09 |
Winchester VA-WV | -5 | 1982/01 | 1982/06 |
Akron OH | -4 | 1982/01 | 1982/06 |
Blacksburg-Christiansburg-Radford VA | -4 | 1982/01 | 1982/05 |
Cedar Rapids IA | -4 | 1982/05 | 1984/03 |
Charlottesville VA | -4 | 1982/01 | 1982/05 |
Cleveland-Elyria OH | -4 | 1982/01 | 1982/06 |
Columbus OH | -4 | 1982/01 | 1982/06 |
Goldsboro NC | -4 | 1982/04 | 1982/08 |
Harrisonburg VA | -4 | 1982/01 | 1982/05 |
Hinesville GA | -4 | 1984/09 | 1985/04 |
Lynchburg VA | -4 | 1982/01 | 1982/05 |
Modesto CA | -4 | 1982/04 | 1983/12 |
Muncie IN | -4 | 1982/01 | 1982/10 |
New Haven-Milford CT | -4 | 1988/06 | 1989/12 |
Phoenix-Mesa-Scottsdale AZ | -4 | 1987/07 | 1989/12 |
Port St. Lucie FL | -4 | 1982/09 | 1983/02 |
Pueblo CO | -4 | 1987/03 | 1989/01 |
Sacramento--Roseville--Arden-Arcade CA | -4 | 1982/05 | 1983/12 |
Springfield OH | -4 | 1982/01 | 1982/06 |
Staunton-Waynesboro VA | -4 | 1982/01 | 1982/05 |
Toledo OH | -4 | 1982/01 | 1982/06 |
Baltimore-Columbia-Towson MD | -3 | 1982/01 | 1982/12 |
Cincinnati OH-KY-IN | -3 | 1982/01 | 1982/06 |
Dayton OH | -3 | 1982/01 | 1982/06 |
Evansville IN-KY | -3 | 1982/01 | 1982/09 |
Fargo ND-MN | -3 | 1987/06 | 1989/01 |
Hagerstown-Martinsburg MD-WV | -3 | 1982/01 | 1982/06 |
Hartford-West Hartford-East Hartford CT | -3 | 1988/07 | 1989/12 |
Lancaster PA | -3 | 1982/06 | 1983/01 |
Mankato-North Mankato MN | -3 | 1982/01 | 1982/06 |
New York-Newark-Jersey City NY-NJ-PA | -3 | 1988/07 | 1989/12 |
Richmond VA | -3 | 1982/01 | 1982/05 |
Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario CA | -3 | 1982/05 | 1983/12 |
Roanoke VA | -3 | 1982/01 | 1982/05 |
Santa Cruz-Watsonville CA | -3 | 1982/04 | 1982/09 |
St. Joseph MO-KS | -3 | 1983/08 | 1984/02 |
The Villages FL | -3 | 1988/06 | 1989/12 |
Vineland-Bridgeton NJ | -3 | 1982/05 | 1983/02 |
Virginia Beach-Norfolk-Newport News V | -3 | 1982/01 | 1982/05 |
Washington-Arlington-Alexandria DC-VA- | -3 | 1982/01 | 1982/06 |
Watertown-Fort Drum NY | -3 | 1988/08 | 1989/12 |
Wichita KS | -3 | 1987/06 | 1988/02 |
Youngstown-Warren-Boardman OH-PA | -3 | 1982/01 | 1982/06 |
德州在此次危機之後一直到現在,房價總體上再也沒有出現過明顯的下跌,在次貸危機中受影響也很小。
二.九十年代的東西海岸泡沫
美國獨居屋市場在六十年代和七十年代這二十年的大部分時間裏,各州和各都市區的房價波動趨勢基本一致,實際價格增長緩慢。在七十年代之前,房價的增長速度與通貨膨脹率差不多,地區差異相對較小。但到了七十年代,房價上漲速度明顯快於通貨膨脹率, 但除了加州從1976 年至 1980 年地產市場比較繁榮外,其它地區之間的差異仍然很小。
相比之下,八十年代和九十年代房屋的價格波動開始加劇,不同地區的價格開始出現較大差異。八十年代開始,美國東北部、加州、夏威夷、西雅圖和華盛頓特區的房價都出現了急劇上漲,比如,洛杉磯的房價從1985~1989增長了100%,而波士頓的房價從1982~1989則差不多增長了150%。房價的急劇上漲吸引了大批的資金,至1988~1989年時,這些地區的獨居屋市場已經出現嚴重過剩,泡沫最嚴重的加州和美國東北部地區(尤其是新英格蘭地區)房價開始崩潰,房價大約在1995~1996年觸底,其中洛杉磯為重災區:
Metro | Percentage | Peak | Trough |
Hartford-West Hartford-East Hartford CT | -26 | 1988/07 | 1996/02 |
Los Angeles-Long Beach-Anaheim CA | -26 | 1990/04 | 1996/02 |
Manchester-Nashua NH | -26 | 1988/06 | 1994/02 |
New Haven-Milford CT | -25 | 1988/06 | 1996/02 |
Norwich-New London CT | -24 | 1989/04 | 1994/02 |
Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario CA | -24 | 1990/08 | 1996/12 |
San Luis Obispo-Paso Robles-Arroyo Grande CA | -23 | 1990/07 | 1996/01 |
Oxnard-Thousand Oaks-Ventura CA | -22 | 1989/11 | 1995/12 |
Barnstable Town MA | -21 | 1988/05 | 1994/03 |
Kingston NY | -21 | 1989/08 | 1996/04 |
Pittsfield MA | -20 | 1990/01 | 1993/03 |
Springfield MA | -19 | 1990/01 | 1995/02 |
Binghamton NY | -18 | 1990/07 | 1996/12 |
Bridgeport-Stamford-Norwalk CT | -18 | 1988/05 | 1994/02 |
Modesto CA | -18 | 1990/08 | 1996/12 |
Sacramento--Roseville--Arden-Arcade CA | -18 | 1990/10 | 1996/12 |
Worcester MA-CT | -18 | 1988/11 | 1994/03 |
Boston-Cambridge-Newton MA-NH | -17 | 1988/07 | 1993/03 |
Lewiston-Auburn ME | -16 | 1989/11 | 1995/01 |
Providence-Warwick RI-MA | -16 | 1989/12 | 1996/02 |
San Diego-Carlsbad CA | -16 | 1990/08 | 1995/12 |
Vallejo-Fairfield CA | -16 | 1990/09 | 1996/12 |
Portland-South Portland ME | -15 | 1989/10 | 1995/01 |
San Jose-Sunnyvale-Santa Clara CA | -15 | 1989/12 | 1994/02 |
Santa Maria-Santa Barbara CA | -15 | 1990/07 | 1996/01 |
Stockton-Lodi CA | -15 | 1990/09 | 1996/12 |
Urban Honolulu HI | -15 | 1991/11 | 1996/12 |
Kahului-Wailuku-Lahaina HI | -14 | 1991/12 | 1996/12 |
San Francisco-Oakland-Hayward CA | -14 | 1990/07 | 1995/12 |
The Villages FL | -14 | 1988/06 | 1993/02 |
New York-Newark-Jersey City NY-NJ-PA | -13 | 1988/07 | 1994/03 |
Trenton NJ | -13 | 1988/06 | 1996/02 |
Bakersfield CA | -12 | 1992/02 | 1996/12 |
East Stroudsburg PA | -12 | 1990/02 | 1996/01 |
Ithaca NY | -12 | 1989/11 | 1996/04 |
Utica-Rome NY | -12 | 1992/11 | 1996/04 |
Merced CA | -11 | 1990/10 | 1996/12 |
Santa Cruz-Watsonville CA | -11 | 1990/07 | 1995/12 |
Yuba City CA | -11 | 1991/07 | 1996/12 |
Albany-Schenectady-Troy NY | -10 | 1992/11 | 1996/12 |
Napa CA | -10 | 1991/06 | 1996/12 |
Santa Rosa CA | -10 | 1990/08 | 1996/01 |
Allentown-Bethlehem-Easton PA-NJ | -9 | 1989/07 | 1996/01 |
Syracuse NY | -9 | 1990/07 | 1996/04 |
Atlantic City-Hammonton NJ | -8 | 1990/01 | 1996/02 |
Kennewick-Richland WA | -8 | 1994/05 | 1996/01 |
Killeen-Temple TX | -8 | 1988/06 | 1990/11 |
New Orleans-Metairie LA | -8 | 1988/01 | 1991/02 |
San Antonio-New Braunfels TX | -8 | 1988/01 | 1990/03 |
Bangor ME | -7 | 1989/11 | 1995/02 |
Fresno CA | -7 | 1992/09 | 1996/12 |
Glens Falls NY | -7 | 1990/07 | 1996/04 |
Lake Havasu City-Kingman AZ | -7 | 1991/11 | 1996/12 |
Ocean City NJ | -7 | 1990/01 | 1996/02 |
Redding CA | -7 | 1992/09 | 1996/12 |
Watertown-Fort Drum NY | -7 | 1988/08 | 1991/04 |
Alexandria LA | -6 | 1988/07 | 1991/02 |
Salinas CA | -6 | 1990/08 | 1996/01 |
Shreveport-Bossier City LA | -6 | 1988/01 | 1991/02 |
Vineland-Bridgeton NJ | -6 | 1992/02 | 1994/02 |
Chico CA | -5 | 1992/02 | 1996/01 |
Hammond LA | -5 | 1988/01 | 1989/02 |
Odessa TX | -5 | 1988/06 | 1990/03 |
San Angelo TX | -5 | 1988/06 | 1990/11 |
Sherman-Denison TX | -5 | 1988/06 | 1990/03 |
Washington-Arlington-Alexandria DC-VA-MD-WV | -5 | 1990/06 | 1996/02 |
Baton Rouge LA | -4 | 1988/01 | 1989/02 |
College Station-Bryan TX | -4 | 1988/06 | 1990/11 |
Denver-Aurora-Lakewood CO | -4 | 1988/04 | 1989/03 |
Elmira NY | -4 | 1994/07 | 1996/04 |
Farmington NM | -4 | 1988/01 | 1988/12 |
Homosassa Springs FL | -4 | 1993/06 | 1996/01 |
Houma-Thibodaux LA | -4 | 1988/01 | 1988/11 |
Lafayette LA | -4 | 1988/01 | 1988/10 |
Madera CA | -4 | 1992/09 | 1996/12 |
Monroe LA | -4 | 1988/01 | 1989/01 |
Philadelphia-Camden-Wilmington PA-NJ-DE-MD | -4 | 1990/02 | 1996/01 |
Salt Lake City UT | -4 | 1988/01 | 1989/01 |
Visalia-Porterville CA | -4 | 1994/07 | 1996/12 |
Brownsville-Harlingen TX | -3 | 1988/03 | 1989/01 |
Buffalo-Cheektowaga-Niagara Falls NY | -3 | 1994/07 | 1996/03 |
Greeley CO | -3 | 1988/04 | 1989/02 |
Laredo TX | -3 | 1994/10 | 1996/02 |
Oklahoma City OK | -3 | 1988/01 | 1988/09 |
Pine Bluff AR | -3 | 1990/09 | 1991/08 |
Reading PA | -3 | 1994/07 | 1996/01 |
Rochester NY | -3 | 1992/11 | 1996/03 |
Texarkana TX-AR | -3 | 1988/06 | 1990/11 |
Waco TX | -3 | 1988/06 | 1990/11 |
Wichita Falls TX | -3 | 1988/06 | 1989/01 |
需要說明一點的是,盡管在1990~1991美國曾經出現過經濟衰退,但經濟衰退是在房價開始下跌以後才開始的,而不是以前,這也說明,房價的下跌不是經濟衰退造成的,而主要是由房價上漲太快和房屋過剩造成的。
投壇大佬老朽兄的第一桶金,估計就是由於抓住這次機遇而賺取的。
三.次貸危機
次貸危機主要是由銀行放貸過度引起的,用朽哥的話說就是銀行無節操。這個很多人都經曆過,想必已經很熟悉了,我也就不多囉嗦了,直接把整理的數據列出來:
Metro | Percentage | Peak | Trough |
Merced CA | -66 | 2006/04 | 2009/05 |
Las Vegas-Henderson-Paradise NV | -64 | 2006/06 | 2012/01 |
Modesto CA | -62 | 2006/04 | 2012/01 |
Stockton-Lodi CA | -62 | 2006/04 | 2012/01 |
Vallejo-Fairfield CA | -60 | 2006/04 | 2012/01 |
Cape Coral-Fort Myers FL | -58 | 2006/04 | 2011/02 |
Madera CA | -58 | 2006/05 | 2012/01 |
Reno NV | -58 | 2006/03 | 2012/02 |
Port St. Lucie FL | -57 | 2006/04 | 2011/02 |
Carson City NV | -56 | 2006/04 | 2012/02 |
Naples-Immokalee-Marco Island FL | -56 | 2006/04 | 2011/02 |
Salinas CA | -56 | 2006/04 | 2012/02 |
Yuba City CA | -56 | 2005/09 | 2012/02 |
Punta Gorda FL | -55 | 2005/11 | 2011/02 |
Sebring FL | -55 | 2006/07 | 2012/01 |
Bakersfield CA | -54 | 2006/06 | 2012/01 |
Deltona-Daytona Beach-Ormond Beach FL | -54 | 2006/04 | 2011/03 |
North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton FL | -54 | 2006/03 | 2011/02 |
Ocala FL | -54 | 2006/07 | 2012/01 |
Palm Bay-Melbourne-Titusville FL | -54 | 2005/11 | 2011/02 |
Phoenix-Mesa-Scottsdale AZ | -54 | 2006/05 | 2011/05 |
Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario CA | -53 | 2006/05 | 2012/01 |
Sebastian-Vero Beach FL | -53 | 2005/11 | 2012/01 |
Orlando-Kissimmee-Sanford FL | -52 | 2006/07 | 2011/02 |
Sacramento--Roseville--Arden-Arcade CA | -52 | 2005/09 | 2012/01 |
Fresno CA | -51 | 2006/05 | 2012/01 |
Lakeland-Winter Haven FL | -51 | 2006/07 | 2011/02 |
Bend-Redmond OR | -50 | 2006/07 | 2011/02 |
El Centro CA | -50 | 2006/06 | 2012/01 |
Homosassa Springs FL | -50 | 2006/04 | 2012/01 |
Visalia-Porterville CA | -50 | 2006/05 | 2012/01 |
Lake Havasu City-Kingman AZ | -49 | 2006/05 | 2011/05 |
Miami-Fort Lauderdale-West Palm Beach FL | -49 | 2006/05 | 2011/02 |
Prescott AZ | -48 | 2006/06 | 2011/06 |
Santa Maria-Santa Barbara CA | -48 | 2005/09 | 2012/02 |
Medford OR | -46 | 2006/06 | 2012/02 |
Redding CA | -46 | 2006/05 | 2012/01 |
Santa Rosa CA | -46 | 2005/09 | 2012/01 |
Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater FL | -46 | 2006/04 | 2011/02 |
Detroit-Warren-Dearborn MI | -45 | 2005/06 | 2011/02 |
Flint MI | -45 | 2005/07 | 2011/02 |
Hanford-Corcoran CA | -45 | 2006/05 | 2012/02 |
Boise City ID | -44 | 2007/05 | 2011/03 |
Napa CA | -44 | 2006/04 | 2012/01 |
St. George UT | -44 | 2006/08 | 2011/03 |
Panama City FL | -43 | 2005/11 | 2012/01 |
Tucson AZ | -43 | 2006/06 | 2012/01 |
Yuma AZ | -43 | 2006/07 | 2012/01 |
Chico CA | -42 | 2006/04 | 2012/02 |
Grants Pass OR | -42 | 2006/07 | 2012/02 |
Crestview-Fort Walton Beach-Destin FL | -41 | 2005/11 | 2011/02 |
Hagerstown-Martinsburg MD-WV | -40 | 2006/06 | 2011/02 |
Jacksonville FL | -40 | 2006/07 | 2012/01 |
Oxnard-Thousand Oaks-Ventura CA | -40 | 2006/05 | 2012/02 |
Winchester VA-WV | -40 | 2006/06 | 2011/02 |
Flagstaff AZ | -39 | 2007/05 | 2012/01 |
Kahului-Wailuku-Lahaina HI | -39 | 2006/06 | 2011/11 |
Monroe MI | -39 | 2005/07 | 2011/02 |
San Francisco-Oakland-Hayward CA | -39 | 2006/05 | 2012/01 |
Brunswick GA | -38 | 2007/06 | 2012/02 |
East Stroudsburg PA | -38 | 2006/07 | 2013/01 |
Jackson MI | -38 | 2005/08 | 2011/02 |
Santa Cruz-Watsonville CA | -38 | 2006/04 | 2012/01 |
Gainesville FL | -37 | 2007/04 | 2012/01 |
Los Angeles-Long Beach-Anaheim CA | -37 | 2006/06 | 2012/02 |
San Luis Obispo-Paso Robles-Arroyo Grande CA | -37 | 2005/09 | 2012/01 |
Daphne-Fairhope-Foley AL | -36 | 2006/08 | 2011/02 |
Hilton Head Island-Bluffton-Beaufort SC | -36 | 2006/07 | 2012/02 |
Lansing-East Lansing MI | -36 | 2005/07 | 2012/02 |
Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Roswell GA | -35 | 2007/06 | 2012/01 |
Gainesville GA | -35 | 2007/06 | 2012/01 |
Myrtle Beach-Conway-North Myrtle Beach SC-NC | -35 | 2007/06 | 2013/01 |
Pensacola-Ferry Pass-Brent FL | -35 | 2006/04 | 2011/02 |
San Diego-Carlsbad CA | -35 | 2005/09 | 2012/01 |
Chicago-Naperville-Elgin IL-IN-WI | -34 | 2006/07 | 2012/02 |
Dalton GA | -34 | 2007/05 | 2012/01 |
Grand Junction CO | -34 | 2007/07 | 2012/01 |
Rockford IL | -34 | 2007/07 | 2013/01 |
Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue WA | -34 | 2007/07 | 2012/01 |
Ann Arbor MI | -33 | 2005/07 | 2012/01 |
Coeur d'Alene ID | -33 | 2006/07 | 2012/01 |
Longview WA | -33 | 2007/07 | 2012/01 |
Mount Vernon-Anacortes WA | -33 | 2007/07 | 2012/01 |
Tallahassee FL | -33 | 2007/04 | 2012/01 |
Atlantic City-Hammonton NJ | -32 | 2006/07 | 2012/02 |
Bremerton-Silverdale WA | -32 | 2007/06 | 2012/02 |
Battle Creek MI | -31 | 2006/06 | 2012/02 |
Minneapolis-St. Paul-Bloomington MN-WI | -31 | 2006/06 | 2012/01 |
Muskegon MI | -31 | 2005/07 | 2011/02 |
Saginaw MI | -31 | 2005/06 | 2012/02 |
Sierra Vista-Douglas AZ | -31 | 2007/05 | 2013/12 |
Gulfport-Biloxi-Pascagoula MS | -30 | 2007/05 | 2012/02 |
Providence-Warwick RI-MA | -30 | 2005/08 | 2012/02 |
Provo-Orem UT | -30 | 2007/07 | 2011/03 |
Racine WI | -30 | 2006/07 | 2013/01 |
Salem OR | -30 | 2007/06 | 2012/02 |
San Jose-Sunnyvale-Santa Clara CA | -30 | 2007/05 | 2009/04 |
Savannah GA | -30 | 2007/06 | 2012/01 |
Vineland-Bridgeton NJ | -30 | 2007/06 | 2013/02 |
Wilmington NC | -30 | 2007/06 | 2012/02 |
Dover DE | -29 | 2007/06 | 2012/03 |
Olympia-Tumwater WA | -29 | 2007/07 | 2012/02 |
Portland-Vancouver-Hillsboro OR-WA | -29 | 2007/06 | 2012/01 |
Salisbury MD-DE | -29 | 2006/07 | 2012/02 |
Toledo OH | -29 | 2005/07 | 2012/02 |
Eugene OR | -28 | 2007/06 | 2012/02 |
Norwich-New London CT | -28 | 2006/07 | 2013/01 |
USA | -28 | 2006/07 | 2012/01 |
Worcester MA-CT | -28 | 2005/08 | 2012/02 |
Albany OR | -27 | 2007/07 | 2012/02 |
Bay City MI | -27 | 2005/07 | 2011/02 |
Bridgeport-Stamford-Norwalk CT | -27 | 2006/06 | 2013/01 |
Chambersburg-Waynesboro PA | -27 | 2006/07 | 2012/02 |
Charleston-North Charleston SC | -27 | 2007/05 | 2012/02 |
Gettysburg PA | -27 | 2007/07 | 2013/01 |
Grand Rapids-Wyoming MI | -27 | 2005/07 | 2011/02 |
Jacksonville NC | -27 | 2007/07 | 2013/12 |
Janesville-Beloit WI | -27 | 2007/06 | 2012/02 |
California-Lexington Park MD | -26 | 2006/07 | 2012/02 |
Fayetteville-Springdale-Rogers AR-MO | -26 | 2006/07 | 2011/03 |
Hinesville GA | -26 | 2007/07 | 2012/02 |
Macon GA | -26 | 2007/06 | 2012/02 |
Manchester-Nashua NH | -26 | 2005/08 | 2012/02 |
Mobile AL | -26 | 2007/07 | 2011/12 |
Salt Lake City UT | -26 | 2007/07 | 2011/03 |
Santa Fe NM | -26 | 2007/06 | 2012/02 |
Trenton NJ | -26 | 2006/07 | 2012/03 |
Allentown-Bethlehem-Easton PA-NJ | -25 | 2007/07 | 2012/02 |
Athens-Clarke County GA | -25 | 2007/07 | 2012/01 |
Baltimore-Columbia-Towson MD | -25 | 2006/07 | 2012/02 |
Cleveland-Elyria OH | -25 | 2005/07 | 2012/02 |
Kankakee IL | -25 | 2007/07 | 2013/01 |
Kingston NY | -25 | 2006/07 | 2013/03 |
Mansfield OH | -25 | 2006/06 | 2013/01 |
New Haven-Milford CT | -25 | 2006/07 | 2013/01 |
Richmond VA | -25 | 2007/06 | 2012/01 |
Spokane-Spokane Valley WA | -25 | 2007/07 | 2012/01 |
St. Cloud MN | -25 | 2006/07 | 2012/02 |
Virginia Beach-Norfolk-Newport News VA-NC | -25 | 2007/06 | 2012/01 |
Washington-Arlington-Alexandria DC-VA-MD-WV | -25 | 2006/06 | 2009/02 |
Columbus GA-AL | -24 | 2007/06 | 2012/01 |
New Bern NC | -24 | 2007/06 | 2013/01 |
New York-Newark-Jersey City NY-NJ-PA | -24 | 2006/07 | 2012/02 |
The Villages FL | -24 | 2006/07 | 2012/01 |
Wenatchee WA | -24 | 2007/08 | 2012/01 |
Idaho Falls ID | -23 | 2007/08 | 2012/01 |
Kokomo IN | -23 | 2005/08 | 2012/02 |
Las Cruces NM | -23 | 2007/06 | 2013/01 |
Milwaukee-Waukesha-West Allis WI | -23 | 2006/07 | 2012/02 |
Ocean City NJ | -23 | 2006/06 | 2013/02 |
Staunton-Waynesboro VA | -23 | 2007/06 | 2012/01 |
Valdosta GA | -23 | 2007/07 | 2012/02 |
York-Hanover PA | -23 | 2007/07 | 2013/01 |
Albany GA | -22 | 2007/07 | 2012/02 |
Auburn-Opelika AL | -22 | 2007/06 | 2011/12 |
Barnstable Town MA | -22 | 2005/07 | 2012/02 |
Dayton OH | -22 | 2006/06 | 2012/02 |
Elkhart-Goshen IN | -22 | 2007/06 | 2011/01 |
Kalamazoo-Portage MI | -22 | 2006/06 | 2012/02 |
Niles-Benton Harbor MI | -22 | 2007/07 | 2012/02 |
Ogden-Clearfield UT | -22 | 2007/08 | 2012/01 |
Rome GA | -22 | 2007/06 | 2012/01 |
Sheboygan WI | -22 | 2007/07 | 2012/02 |
St. Louis MO-IL | -22 | 2006/07 | 2012/01 |
Akron OH | -21 | 2006/06 | 2012/02 |
Albuquerque NM | -21 | 2007/06 | 2012/02 |
Boston-Cambridge-Newton MA-NH | -21 | 2005/07 | 2012/02 |
Canton-Massillon OH | -21 | 2006/06 | 2011/02 |
Charlottesville VA | -21 | 2007/06 | 2012/01 |
Greeley CO | -21 | 2005/07 | 2011/02 |
Augusta-Richmond County GA-SC | -20 | 2007/07 | 2012/02 |
Bellingham WA | -20 | 2007/07 | 2012/01 |
Hammond LA | -20 | 2007/05 | 2012/01 |
Harrisonburg VA | -20 | 2007/06 | 2012/02 |
Montgomery AL | -20 | 2007/06 | 2012/01 |
Reading PA | -20 | 2007/07 | 2012/02 |
Warner Robins GA | -20 | 2007/06 | 2012/01 |
Asheville NC | -19 | 2007/07 | 2012/02 |
Birmingham-Hoover AL | -19 | 2007/06 | 2011/12 |
Charlotte-Concord-Gastonia NC-SC | -19 | 2007/07 | 2011/03 |
Memphis TN-MS-AR | -19 | 2007/05 | 2012/01 |
Philadelphia-Camden-Wilmington PA-NJ-DE-MD | -19 | 2007/07 | 2012/02 |
Cincinnati OH-KY-IN | -18 | 2006/07 | 2012/01 |
Green Bay WI | -18 | 2006/07 | 2012/02 |
Hartford-West Hartford-East Hartford CT | -18 | 2006/07 | 2013/02 |
Kansas City MO-KS | -18 | 2006/07 | 2012/01 |
Lewiston-Auburn ME | -18 | 2006/06 | 2012/02 |
Pueblo CO | -18 | 2007/06 | 2012/01 |
Springfield MO | -18 | 2007/07 | 2012/01 |
Sumter SC | -18 | 2007/06 | 2012/02 |
Youngstown-Warren-Boardman OH-PA | -18 | 2006/06 | 2011/02 |
Anniston-Oxford-Jacksonville AL | -17 | 2007/07 | 2011/12 |
Colorado Springs CO | -17 | 2007/07 | 2012/01 |
Duluth MN-WI | -17 | 2007/07 | 2012/02 |
Lima OH | -17 | 2006/07 | 2013/01 |
Michigan City-La Porte IN | -17 | 2006/07 | 2012/02 |
Roanoke VA | -17 | 2007/06 | 2012/02 |
Springfield MA | -17 | 2006/06 | 2012/02 |
Springfield OH | -17 | 2006/06 | 2013/01 |
Walla Walla WA | -17 | 2007/08 | 2012/02 |
Columbia SC | -16 | 2007/06 | 2013/01 |
Columbus OH | -16 | 2006/06 | 2011/02 |
Danville IL | -16 | 2007/07 | 2012/01 |
Farmington NM | -16 | 2007/08 | 2012/02 |
Fond du Lac WI | -16 | 2007/07 | 2012/02 |
Madison WI | -16 | 2006/07 | 2012/02 |
Mankato-North Mankato MN | -16 | 2006/07 | 2012/02 |
Morristown TN | -16 | 2007/07 | 2012/02 |
Pittsfield MA | -16 | 2007/07 | 2013/01 |
Pocatello ID | -16 | 2007/08 | 2012/01 |
Rochester MN | -16 | 2006/07 | 2012/02 |
South Bend-Mishawaka IN-MI | -16 | 2007/07 | 2012/02 |
Wausau WI | -16 | 2007/07 | 2013/01 |
Cumberland MD-WV | -15 | 2007/08 | 2013/12 |
Hickory-Lenoir-Morganton NC | -15 | 2007/07 | 2011/03 |
Lynchburg VA | -15 | 2007/07 | 2012/01 |
Midland MI | -15 | 2006/07 | 2009/02 |
Portland-South Portland ME | -15 | 2006/06 | 2012/02 |
Rocky Mount NC | -15 | 2007/07 | 2012/02 |
Corvallis OR | -14 | 2007/07 | 2012/02 |
Dothan AL | -14 | 2007/07 | 2011/12 |
Greensboro-High Point NC | -14 | 2007/07 | 2012/02 |
Greenville NC | -14 | 2007/07 | 2013/01 |
Jackson TN | -14 | 2007/07 | 2012/02 |
Lancaster PA | -14 | 2007/07 | 2012/02 |
Logan UT-ID | -14 | 2008/07 | 2012/01 |
Missoula MT | -14 | 2007/07 | 2012/01 |
Muncie IN | -14 | 2005/08 | 2012/02 |
New Orleans-Metairie LA | -14 | 2007/04 | 2012/01 |
Oshkosh-Neenah WI | -14 | 2007/07 | 2012/02 |
Spartanburg SC | -14 | 2007/06 | 2012/02 |
Winston-Salem NC | -14 | 2007/06 | 2012/02 |
Appleton WI | -13 | 2006/07 | 2012/02 |
Bangor ME | -13 | 2006/07 | 2012/02 |
Blacksburg-Christiansburg-Radford VA | -13 | 2007/06 | 2012/01 |
Champaign-Urbana IL | -13 | 2007/07 | 2012/01 |
Cleveland TN | -13 | 2007/06 | 2012/02 |
Des Moines-West Des Moines IA | -13 | 2007/07 | 2012/01 |
Glens Falls NY | -13 | 2007/07 | 2012/02 |
Hattiesburg MS | -13 | 2007/05 | 2012/01 |
Lewiston ID-WA | -13 | 2007/08 | 2012/01 |
Nashville-Davidson--Murfreesboro--Franklin TN | -13 | 2007/07 | 2011/01 |
Scranton--Wilkes-Barre--Hazleton PA | -13 | 2007/07 | 2012/02 |
St. Joseph MO-KS | -13 | 2007/07 | 2012/01 |
Bloomington IL | -12 | 2007/07 | 2012/01 |
Burlington NC | -12 | 2007/06 | 2012/02 |
Decatur IL | -12 | 2007/07 | 2013/01 |
Denver-Aurora-Lakewood CO | -12 | 2006/06 | 2011/02 |
El Paso TX | -12 | 2007/07 | 2012/01 |
Fayetteville NC | -12 | 2008/07 | 2013/12 |
Florence SC | -12 | 2007/06 | 2012/02 |
Harrisburg-Carlisle PA | -12 | 2007/07 | 2012/02 |
Laredo TX | -12 | 2007/06 | 2011/01 |
Peoria IL | -12 | 2007/07 | 2012/01 |
Pine Bluff AR | -12 | 2007/08 | 2013/12 |
Raleigh NC | -12 | 2008/06 | 2012/02 |
Yakima WA | -12 | 2008/07 | 2012/01 |
Cape Girardeau MO-IL | -11 | 2007/07 | 2011/01 |
Chattanooga TN-GA | -11 | 2007/07 | 2012/01 |
Eau Claire WI | -11 | 2007/07 | 2012/02 |
Fort Wayne IN | -11 | 2007/06 | 2009/01 |
Gadsden AL | -11 | 2008/07 | 2011/12 |
Greenville-Anderson-Mauldin SC | -11 | 2008/07 | 2012/02 |
Huntsville AL | -11 | 2008/08 | 2011/12 |
Indianapolis-Carmel-Anderson IN | -11 | 2007/07 | 2011/02 |
Knoxville TN | -11 | 2007/07 | 2012/02 |
Lawrence KS | -11 | 2007/07 | 2012/02 |
Lebanon PA | -11 | 2008/07 | 2013/01 |
McAllen-Edinburg-Mission TX | -11 | 2007/07 | 2011/01 |
Terre Haute IN | -11 | 2006/08 | 2009/01 |
Weirton-Steubenville WV-OH | -11 | 2006/07 | 2011/02 |
Albany-Schenectady-Troy NY | -10 | 2007/08 | 2012/02 |
Goldsboro NC | -10 | 2008/06 | 2011/02 |
Hot Springs AR | -10 | 2007/08 | 2012/01 |
Jackson MS | -10 | 2007/05 | 2010/12 |
Lafayette-West Lafayette IN | -10 | 2006/07 | 2011/02 |
Omaha-Council Bluffs NE-IA | -10 | 2006/07 | 2011/12 |
Beaumont-Port Arthur TX | -9 | 2008/07 | 2012/01 |
Binghamton NY | -9 | 2008/07 | 2012/02 |
Decatur AL | -9 | 2007/08 | 2011/12 |
Durham-Chapel Hill NC | -9 | 2008/07 | 2012/02 |
Evansville IN-KY | -9 | 2007/07 | 2009/01 |
Joplin MO | -9 | 2007/07 | 2011/01 |
Louisville/Jefferson County KY-IN | -9 | 2007/07 | 2012/01 |
Tuscaloosa AL | -9 | 2008/07 | 2011/02 |
Wichita KS | -9 | 2007/08 | 2012/02 |
Carbondale-Marion IL | -8 | 2007/07 | 2009/02 |
Fort Collins CO | -8 | 2007/07 | 2009/01 |
Lawton OK | -8 | 2007/08 | 2013/01 |
Lincoln NE | -8 | 2006/07 | 2009/02 |
Topeka KS | -8 | 2007/07 | 2012/02 |
Baton Rouge LA | -7 | 2007/09 | 2012/01 |
Brownsville-Harlingen TX | -7 | 2007/07 | 2012/01 |
Fort Smith AR-OK | -7 | 2008/08 | 2012/01 |
Johnson City TN | -7 | 2008/08 | 2011/01 |
Killeen-Temple TX | -7 | 2007/07 | 2011/01 |
Lexington-Fayette KY | -7 | 2007/07 | 2012/01 |
Manhattan KS | -7 | 2007/07 | 2012/02 |
Cedar Rapids IA | -6 | 2008/08 | 2012/01 |
Fairbanks AK | -6 | 2007/08 | 2012/02 |
Johnstown PA | -6 | 2010/06 | 2013/02 |
Elizabethtown-Fort Knox KY | -5 | 2010/06 | 2013/02 |
Little Rock-North Little Rock-Conway AR | -5 | 2007/07 | 2011/01 |
四.結語
第一次崩盤發生在石油重鎮, 而第二次崩盤主要發生在東西兩海岸的加州和美國東北部,這兩次崩盤的區域基本是不重疊的,也就是說盡管前麵提到了三次崩盤,但大多地區至多會經曆兩次, 甚至隻會經曆一次,不太可能經曆全部三次。
在寫那篇房價指數文章之前,我還不知道Freddie Mac 房價指數的存在,所以以前用的都是FHFA房價指數。但FHFA房價指數大多都是從1991年Q1才開始的,如果比較一下加州vs德州,洛杉磯vs休斯頓從1991年Q1開始到現在的FHFA房價指數(房價增長率),會得到如下的對比:
單看這個對比結果,很容易得出這樣的結論:德州和加州,洛杉磯和休斯頓,它們的房價增值速度差不多。在過去的30年裏,也的確如此。
但這種簡單的對比是有欺騙性的,因為1991年,對於德州和休斯頓來說, 已經是柳暗花明,早已度過了最黑暗的時期,並且自此後,德州和休斯頓的房價基本上一直處在上升的趨勢,即便次貸危機都沒能阻止這種趨勢。
而1991年,對加州和洛杉磯來說,還有兩次過山車要坐,也就是說還要經曆兩次大的波動,當時恰好是第一次過山車之前的高峰之上,正在往下衝:
如果把時間段放長些,比較一下從1975年1月到2021年八月Freddie Mac 房價指數的數據,會得到以下對比結果:
顯然會得出不同的結論。
熟知過去,才能更好的認知未來。
每次寫這一類文章,總能學到新東西,至少對我自己來說是值了,希望也對您會有一些幫助!
作者:建寧 2021/10/13 (轉載須經作者本人同意)