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印度為何無法像中國一樣成為經濟超級大國
https://www.aspistrategist.org.au/why-india-unlike-china-wont-be-an-economic-superpower/
Ashoka Mody 2023年8月1日
1985年3月，《華爾街日報》對印度新任總理拉吉夫·甘地給予了極高的評價。在一篇題為“拉吉夫·裏根”的社論中，該報將40歲的甘地比作“我們熟知的另一位著名的減稅者”，並宣稱放鬆管製和減稅政策在印度引發了一場“小革命”。
三個月後，在甘地訪美前夕，哥倫比亞大學經濟學家賈格迪什·巴格瓦蒂的評價更加熱情洋溢。他在《紐約時報》上撰文稱：“如今的印度遠勝於中國，是一個即將發生的經濟奇跡。” “如果奇跡真的發生，核心人物將是這位年輕的總理。”巴格瓦蒂還讚揚了甘地執政期間的減稅和放鬆監管政策。
20世紀80年代初是一個關鍵的曆史時刻，中國和印度——這兩個世界上人口最多的國家，人均收入幾乎相同——開始自由化和開放經濟。兩國都引發了人們對“革命”和“奇跡”的預測。然而，中國在強大的人力資本發展基礎上實現了快速增長，而印度在這方麵卻有所欠缺。中國成為了經濟超級大國；預測印度將成為下一個超級大國不過是炒作而已。
這種差異由來已久。1981年，世界銀行將中國“極高的”預期壽命64歲與印度的51歲進行了對比。報告指出，中國公民的飲食狀況比印度公民更好。此外，中國幾乎實現了全民醫療保健，其公民（包括女性）享有更高的初等教育接受率。
世界銀行的報告強調了毛澤東時代中國在性別平等方麵取得的顯著進步。正如紀思道和吳敦義在其2009年出版的《半邊天》一書中所指出的，中國（尤其是城市地區）成為“女性成長的最佳場所之一”。受教育機會的增加和女性勞動力參與率的提高導致了生育率的下降和育兒方式的改善。世界銀行認可中國在發展人力資本和增強婦女權能方麵取得的進步，並做出了一個異常大膽的預測：中國將在“大約一代人的時間內”實現生活水平的“大幅提高”。
世界銀行的報告沒有關注減稅或經濟自由化，而是關注布朗大學經濟學家奧德·加洛爾最近強調的一個曆史事實。自工業革命以來，每一次經濟進步——其關鍵在於持續的生產力增長——都與人力資本投資和女性勞動力參與率的提高息息相關。
誠然，市場自由化極大地促進了中國和印度的經濟增長。但中國的成功發展戰略建立在人力資本和性別平等這兩大支柱之上，而印度在這些領域遠遠落後。
即使在更加市場化之後，中國仍在人力資本方麵進行了令人印象深刻的投資，在將教育和健康標準提高到擁有國際競爭力的勞動力所需的水平方麵，中國的表現超過了印度。世界銀行2020年人力資本指數（以0到1的等級衡量各國的教育和健康成果）顯示，印度的得分為0.49，低於尼泊爾和肯尼亞這兩個較為貧窮的國家。中國的得分為0.65，與人均收入更高、更富裕的智利和斯洛伐克相當。
中國女性勞動力參與率已從1990年的約80%下降至約62%，而印度同期女性勞動力參與率則從32%下降至約25%。尤其是在城鎮地區，針對女性的暴力行為阻礙了印度女性進入勞動力市場。
優越的人力資本和更高的性別平等水平共同推動了中國全要素生產率的大幅增長，而全要素生產率是衡量資源利用效率的最全麵指標。假設兩國經濟體在1953年（大約在它們開始現代化進程之時）的生產率相同，那麽到20世紀80年代末，中國的生產率已比印度高出50%以上。如今，中國的生產力幾乎是印度的兩倍。盡管45%的印度工人仍在生產率極低的農業部門工作，但中國甚至已經從簡單的勞動密集型製造業轉型，成為全球汽車市場（尤其是在電動汽車領域）的主導力量。
中國也為迎接未來機遇做好了更充分的準備。中國有七所大學躋身世界百強，其中清華大學和北大大學躋身前二十。清華大學被認為是世界領先的計算機科學大學，而北大則排名第九。同樣，中國有九所大學躋身全球數學學科前五十。相比之下，包括著名的印度理工學院在內的印度大學均未躋身世界百強。
中國科學家在提升研究數量和質量方麵取得了顯著進展，尤其是在化學、工程和材料科學等領域，並可能很快在人工智能領域占據領先地位。
自20世紀80年代中期以來，印度和其他國際觀察家就預測，專製的中國兔子最終會衰落，而民主的印度烏龜將贏得比賽。最近發生的事件——中國嚴格的“零新冠”限製、不斷上升的青年失業率，以及中國當局為控製國內過度擴張的房地產行業和大型科技公司而采取的笨拙措施所帶來的負麵影響——似乎證實了這種觀點。
然而，盡管中國憑借雄厚的人力資本和更高的性別平等水平，站在新舊經濟的前沿，但印度領導人及其國際同行卻吹噓自己擁有一種超越曆史的能力，能夠憑借光鮮的數字和物理基礎設施跨越脆弱的人力基礎。中國在當前的困境中擁有一條可行的道路。相比之下，印度則麵臨陷入盲目樂觀的死胡同的風險。
作者
阿育王·莫迪，普林斯頓大學國際經濟政策客座教授，曾在世界銀行和國際貨幣基金組織工作。他著有《印度支離破碎：一個被背叛的民族，從獨立到今天》。本文由 Project Syndicate 聯合呈現
《破碎的印度：一個被背叛的民族，從獨立至今》
https://www.amazon.ca/India-Broken-People-Betrayed-Independence/dp/1503630056
作者：阿育王·莫迪 (Ashoka Mody)，2023年2月14日
這部引人入勝的新作講述了印度如何從1947年充滿希望的建國之初，一路走到如今經濟和民主的戲劇性崩潰。
1947年，印度領導人首次執掌政府時，便宣揚了民族團結和世俗民主的理想。在建國後的前半個世紀裏，領導人在關鍵目標上取得了不均衡但可衡量的進展。20世紀80年代中期之後，赤貧狀況在幾十年間有所下降，鼓舞人心地宣告勝利。但如今，絕大多數印度人生活在就業不足的困境中，距離絕望隻有一步之遙。公共產品——醫療衛生、教育、城市建設、空氣和水資源以及司法係統——狀況堪憂。隻要這種情況持續下去，優質就業崗位就將持續稀缺。就業崗位的匱乏將進一步削弱民主，進而進一步削弱就業創造。《支離破碎的印度》一書對這一經濟困境提供了最具說服力的闡釋。
莫迪挑戰了主流觀點，認為從首任總理賈瓦哈拉爾·尼赫魯開始，曆屆獨立後的領導人都未能直麵印度真正的經濟問題，而是尋求簡單的解決方案。隨著民眾的不滿情緒日益加深，政治腐敗日益猖獗，印度的經濟增長越來越依賴於不受監管的金融和破壞環境的建設。暴力印度教民族主義的興起，徹底摧毀了公民生活和公共問責方麵的所有先前規範。
本書將統計數據與文學、電影等創意媒介相結合，創造出強有力的、通俗易懂的、以人為本的敘事，是對民主與經濟進步之間相互作用的反思，其經驗教訓遠不止印度。莫迪提出了一條充滿危險的前進之路，但它卻帶來了一絲希望。
Why India, unlike China, won’t be an economic superpower
https://www.aspistrategist.org.au/why-india-unlike-china-wont-be-an-economic-superpower/
Ashoka Mody 1 Aug 2023
In March 1985, the Wall Street Journal showered India’s new prime minister, Rajiv Gandhi, with its highest praise. In an editorial titled ‘Rajiv Reagan’, the newspaper compared the 40-year-old Gandhi to ‘another famous tax cutter we know’, and declared that deregulation and tax cuts had triggered a ‘minor revolution’ in India.
Three months later, on the eve of Gandhi’s visit to the United States, Columbia University economist Jagdish Bhagwati was even more effusive. ‘Far more than China today, India is an economic miracle waiting to happen,’ he wrote in the New York Times. ‘And if the miracle is accomplished, the central figure will be the young prime minister.’ Bhagwati also praised the reduced tax rates and regulatory easing under Gandhi.
The early 1980s marked a pivotal historical moment, as China and India—the world’s most populous countries, with virtually identical per capita incomes—began liberalising and opening up their economies. Both countries elicited projections of ‘revolution’ and ‘miracle’. But while China grew rapidly on a strong foundation of human-capital development, India shortchanged that aspect of its growth. China became an economic superpower; projections of India as next are little more than hype.
The differences have been long in the making. In 1981, the World Bank contrasted China’s ‘outstandingly high’ life expectancy of 64 years to India’s 51 years. Chinese citizens, it noted, were better fed than their Indian counterparts. Moreover, China provided nearly universal health care, and its citizens—including women—enjoyed higher rates of primary education.
The World Bank report highlighted China’s remarkable strides towards gender equality during the Mao Zedong era. As Nicholas Kristof and Sheryl WuDunn note in their 2009 book Half the sky, China (particularly its urban areas) became ‘one of the best places to grow up female’. Increased access to education and the higher female labour-force participation rate resulted in lower birth rates and improved child-rearing practices. Recognising China’s progress in developing human capital and empowering women, the World Bank made an unusually bold prediction: China would achieve a ‘tremendous increase’ in living standards ‘within a generation or so’.
Rather than tax cuts or economic liberalisation, the World Bank report focused on a historical fact recently emphasised by Brown University economist Oded Galor. Since the dawn of the Industrial Revolution, every instance of economic progress—the crux of which is sustained productivity growth—has been associated with investments in human capital and higher female workforce participation.
To be sure, market liberalisation greatly helped Chinese and Indian growth. But China built its successful development strategy on the twin pillars of human capital and gender equality, areas in which India has lagged far behind.
Even after it became more market-oriented, China invested impressively in its people, outpacing India in raising education and health standards to levels necessary for an internationally competitive workforce. The World Bank’s 2020 Human Capital Index—which measures countries’ education and health outcomes on a scale of 0 to 1—gave India a score of 0.49, below Nepal and Kenya, both poorer countries. China scored 0.65, similar to the much richer (in per capita terms) Chile and Slovakia.
While China’s female labour-force participation rate has decreased to roughly 62% from around 80% in 1990, India’s has fallen over the same period from 32% to around 25%. Especially in urban areas, violence against women has deterred Indian women from entering the workforce.
Together, superior human capital and greater gender equality have enabled much higher Chinese total factor productivity growth, the most comprehensive measure of resource-use efficiency. Assuming that the two economies were equally productive in 1953 (roughly when they embarked on their modernisation efforts), China became over 50% more productive by the late 1980s. Today, China’s productivity is nearly double that of India. While 45% of Indian workers are still in the highly unproductive agriculture sector, China has graduated even from simple, labour-intensive manufacturing to emerge, for example, as a dominant force in global car markets, especially in electric vehicles.
China is also better prepared for future opportunities. Seven Chinese universities are ranked among the world’s top 100, with Tsinghua and Peking among the top 20. Tsinghua is considered the world’s leading university for computer science, while Peking is ranked ninth. Likewise, nine Chinese universities are among the top 50 globally in mathematics. By contrast, no Indian university, including the celebrated Indian Institutes of Technology, is ranked among the world’s top 100.
Chinese scientists have made significant strides in boosting the quantity and quality of their research, particularly in fields such as chemistry, engineering and materials science, and could soon take the lead in artificial intelligence.
Since the mid-1980s, Indian and other international observers have predicted that the authoritarian Chinese hare would eventually falter and the democratic Indian tortoise would win the race. Recent events—China’s harsh zero-Covid restrictions, rising youth unemployment and the adverse repercussions of the Chinese authorities’ ham-handed efforts to rein in the country’s overgrown real-estate sector and large tech companies—seem to support this view.
But while China, with its deep well of human capital and greater gender equality, stands poised at the frontiers of both the old and the new economies, Indian leaders and their international counterparts tout an ahistorical ability to leapfrog over a fragile human foundation with shiny digital and physical infrastructure. China has a plausible path through its current muddle. India, by contrast, risks falling into blind alleys of unfounded optimism.
Ashoka Mody, visiting professor of international economic policy at Princeton University, previously worked for the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund. He is the author of India is broken: a people betrayed, independence to today. This article is presented in partnership with Project Syndicate © 2023. Image: Sankhadeep Banerjee/NurPhoto via Getty Images.
India Is Broken: A People Betrayed, Independence to Today
https://www.amazon.ca/India-Broken-People-Betrayed-Independence/dp/1503630056
by Ashoka Mody (Author) Feb. 14 2023
A provocative new account of how India moved relentlessly from its hope-filled founding in 1947 to the dramatic economic and democratic breakdowns of today.
When Indian leaders first took control of their government in 1947, they proclaimed the ideals of national unity and secular democracy. Through the first half century of nation-building, leaders could point to uneven but measurable progress on key goals, and after the mid-1980s, dire poverty declined for a few decades, inspiring declarations of victory. But today, a vast majority of Indians live in a state of underemployment and are one crisis away from despair. Public goods―health, education, cities, air and water, and the judiciary―are in woeful condition. And good jobs will remain scarce as long as that is the case. The lack of jobs will further undermine democracy, which will further undermine job creation. India is Broken provides the most persuasive account available of this economic catch-22.
Challenging prevailing narratives, Mody contends that successive post-independence leaders, starting with its first Prime Minister, Jawaharlal Nehru, failed to confront India's true economic problems, seeking easy solutions instead. As a popular frustration grew, and corruption in politics became pervasive, India's economic growth relied increasingly on unregulated finance and environmentally destructive construction. The rise of a violent Hindutva has buried all prior norms in civic life and public accountability.
Combining statistical data with creative media, such as literature and cinema, to create strong, accessible, people-driven narratives, this book is a meditation on the interplay between democracy and economic progress, with lessons extending far beyond India. Mody proposes a path forward that is fraught with its own peril, but which nevertheless offers something resembling hope.
