我們的美元，你的問題 Our Dollar, Your Problem

我們的美元，你的問題 Our Dollar, Your Problem

《我們的美元，你的問題：一位業內人士眼中的全球金融七十年動蕩及未來之路》

作者：肯尼斯·羅戈夫 (Kenneth Rogoff) 2025年5月6日

Our Dollar, Your Problem: An Insider's View of Seven Turbulent Decades of Global Finance, and the Road Ahead 

https://www.amazon.ca/Our-Dollar-Your-Problem-Turbulent/dp/0300275315

by Kenneth Rogoff (Author)  May 6 2025

一位著名經濟學家探討了美元在全球的崛起，並指出其未來穩定性為何遠未得到保證。

“《我們的美元，你的問題》的核心論點——美元的主導地位從未得到保證，而且有可能被顛覆——恰逢其時。”——《經濟學人》

《我們的美元，你的問題》認為，如果沒有一定的運氣，美元或許無法達到今天的巔峰。肯尼斯·羅戈夫部分借鑒自身經曆，包括與政策製定者和世界領導人的交往，生動展現了美元在戰後非凡的崛起——它如何擊敗日元、蘇聯盧布和歐元——以及如今美元麵臨的挑戰，包括加密貨幣和人民幣的衝擊、穩定的低通脹和低利率時代的終結、政治動蕩以及美元集團的瓦解。

美國人不能想當然地認為“和平美元”時代會無限期地持續下去，這不僅是因為許多國家對這一體係深感沮喪，還因為過度自信和傲慢可能導致非受迫性失誤。羅戈夫展示了美國超強的實力和過度的特權如何可能引發金融不穩定——不僅在國外，也在國內。

Our Dollar, Your Problem: An Insider's View of Seven Turbulent Decades of Global Finance, and the Road Ahead 

https://www.amazon.ca/Our-Dollar-Your-Problem-Turbulent/dp/0300275315

by Kenneth Rogoff (Author)  May 6 2025

A leading economist explores the global rise of the U.S. dollar and shows why its future stability is far from assured

“The central argument of Our Dollar, Your Problem—that the greenback’s pre-eminence was never guaranteed and might plausibly be overturned—could hardly be more timely.”—The Economist
 
Our Dollar, Your Problem argues that America’s currency might not have reached today’s lofty pinnacle without a certain amount of good luck. Drawing in part on his own experiences, including with policymakers and world leaders, Kenneth Rogoff animates the remarkable postwar run of the dollar—how it beat out the Japanese yen, the Soviet ruble, and the euro—and the challenges it faces today from crypto and the Chinese yuan, the end of reliably low inflation and interest rates, political instability, and the fracturing of the dollar bloc. Americans cannot take for granted that the Pax Dollar era will last indefinitely, not only because many countries are deeply frustrated with the system, but also because overconfidence and arrogance can lead to unforced errors. Rogoff shows how America’s outsized power and exorbitant privilege can spur financial instability—not just abroad but also at home.

“我們的美元，你們的問題”——這話還對嗎？

埃莫特：肯尼思•羅戈夫的新書書名借用了這句美國前財長康納利的名言，他發出恰逢其時的警告——美元麵臨的威脅來自美國自身，特別是其失控的債務水平。

 

肯尼思•羅戈夫

2025年4月27日 08:24 比爾•埃莫特

我們都知道，唐納德•特朗普(Donald Trump)認為，美國承受的安全負擔是不公平的，其他國家多年來在貿易和防務上占了美國的便宜。然而，更令人意外的是，這位再次當選的總統的親信也表示，美元的全球主導地位不再是法國前財政部長瓦萊裏•季斯卡•德斯坦(Valéry Giscard d’Estaing)在20世紀60年代所說的“過度特權”，而是過度負擔。如今，人們對特朗普第二任期的眾多重大疑問之一是，哈佛大學(Harvard)經濟學教授、國際貨幣基金組織(IMF)前首席經濟學家肯尼思•羅戈夫(Kenneth Rogoff)所稱的“美元治下的和平時代”(the Pax Dollar era)是否即將終結。

羅戈夫最廣為人知的著作是2009年與同事卡門•萊因哈特(Carmen Reinhart)合著的《這次不一樣》(This Time is Different)，這部精彩著作回顧了數個世紀以來的金融繁榮與崩潰。其書名應該早已作為預警信號深入投資者腦海，一旦聽到這幾個字，就應該賣出，但可惜的是，一廂情願式思維的力量太強，往往無視這種警示。

Our Dollar, Your Problem by Kenneth Rogoff — does the buck stop here? | “我們的美元，你們的問題”——這話還對嗎？

www1.ftchinese.com 2025年4月27日 08:24

 

We all knew Donald Trump believes the security burden borne by America is unfair and that other countries have been ripping it off for years on trade and defence. It has been more surprising to find the re-elected president’s close aides also saying that the pre-eminent global role played by the US dollar is not the “exorbitant privilege” it was termed by Valéry Giscard d’Estaing as France’s finance minister in the 1960s, but an exorbitant burden. Now, one of the many huge questions about Trump’s second term is whether what Kenneth Rogoff calls “the Pax Dollar era” might be coming to an end.

 

我們都知道，唐納德•特朗普(Donald Trump)認為，美國承受的安全負擔是不公平的，其他國家多年來在貿易和防務上占了美國的便宜。然而，更令人意外的是，這位再次當選的總統的親信也表示，美元的全球主導地位不再是法國前財政部長瓦萊裏•季斯卡•德斯坦(Valéry Giscard d’Estaing)在20世紀60年代所說的“過度特權”，而是過度負擔。如今，人們對特朗普第二任期的眾多重大疑問之一是，哈佛大學(Harvard)經濟學教授、國際貨幣基金組織(IMF)前首席經濟學家肯尼思•羅戈夫(Kenneth Rogoff)所稱的“美元治下的和平時代”(the Pax Dollar era)是否即將終結。

 

A professor of economics at Harvard and former chief economist at the IMF, Rogoff is best known for This Time is Different, a fine book on financial booms and busts through the ages that he co-authored in 2009 with his colleague Carmen Reinhart. That work should by now have cemented its four-word title in investors’ minds as a sell signal whenever it is heard, though such is the power of wishful thinking that it probably hasn't.

 

羅戈夫最廣為人知的著作是2009年與同事卡門•萊因哈特(Carmen Reinhart)合著的《這次不一樣》(This Time is Different)，這部精彩著作回顧了數個世紀以來的金融繁榮與崩潰。其書名應該早已作為預警信號深入投資者腦海，一旦聽到這幾個字，就應該賣出，但可惜的是，一廂情願式思維的力量太強，往往無視這種警示。

 

Rogoff’s new book, Our Dollar, Your Problem, also takes an historical approach to global finance, albeit over seven decades rather than eight centuries, and carries a timely warning. The sharp sell-off of US Treasury bonds following Trump’s April 2 announcement of America’s highest tariff wall for a century confirmed Rogoff’s view that the recently prevailing belief that real interest rates will be “lower forever” is a dangerous myth. For he sees America’s, and hence the dollar’s, “Achilles heel”, as being the country’s $36tn stock of federal debt and the associated danger that a rising interest burden could lead it towards a fiscal crisis.

 

羅戈夫的新作《我們的美元，你們的問題》(Our Dollar, Your Problem)同樣回顧了全球金融的曆史，不過聚焦的是過去70年，而非8個世紀，並提出了一個恰逢其時的警告。特朗普於4月2日宣布美國設立百年來最高關稅壁壘後，美國國債遭遇的劇烈拋售，驗證了羅戈夫的一個觀點：市場此前普遍相信的實際利率將“永遠保持較低”是一種危險的神話。他認為，美國、進而美元的“阿喀琉斯之踵”在於36萬億美元的聯邦債務，以及隨之而來的風險——不斷上升的利息負擔可能引發財政危機。