2025 屬於中國的世紀或許已經到來

屬於中國的世紀或許已經到來

凱爾·陳 2025年5月19日

多年來，理論家們一直設想“中國世紀”的到來：在這個世界上，中國最終將利用其巨大的經濟和技術潛力超越美國，重塑全球力量平衡，使之以北京為中心。

這個世紀或許已經到來，當曆史學家回顧曆史時，他們很可能會將特朗普總統第二個任期的頭幾個月視為一個分水嶺，正是從那時起，中國開始超越美國，將美國遠遠甩在身後。

華盛頓和北京在特朗普發起的貿易戰中達成的暫時性、毫無成效的休戰協議無關緊要。總統立即宣稱勝利，反而凸顯了其政府和美國麵臨的根本問題：目光短淺地關注無關緊要的小規模衝突，卻在與中國的這場更為關鍵的戰爭中節節敗退。

特朗普正在破壞美國實力和創新的支柱。他的關稅政策正在危及美國公司進入全球市場和供應鏈。他大幅削減公共研究經費，削弱美國大學實力，迫使有才華的研究人員考慮離開美國前往其他國家。他想縮減清潔能源和半導體製造等技術項目，並消除美國在全球大片地區的軟實力。

中國的發展軌跡截然不同。

中國在鋼鐵、鋁、造船、電池、太陽能、電動汽車、風力渦輪機、無人機、5G設備、消費電子產品、活性藥物成分和高速鐵路等領域的生產已處於世界領先地位。預計到2030年，中國製造業將占全球製造業的45%，接近一半。北京也非常注重贏得未來：今年3月，中國宣布設立規模達1萬億元人民幣的國家風險投資基金，用於對量子計算和機器人等尖端技術進行長期投資，並增加了公共研發預算。

中國的發展模式取得了令人矚目的成果。

今年1月，當中國初創公司Deepin推出其人工智能聊天機器人時，許多美國人突然意識到，中國在人工智能領域擁有強大的競爭力。但像這樣的“衛星時刻”還有很多。

特朗普的政治盟友埃隆·馬斯克曾嘲笑中國電動汽車製造商比亞迪，但該公司去年的全球銷量超過了特斯拉，正在世界各地建設新工廠，並且在今年3月，其市值超過了福特、通用和大眾三家公司的總和。中國在藥物研發領域處於領先地位，尤其是在癌症治療方麵，並且預計到2023年，中國安裝的工業機器人數量將超過世界其他地區的總和。半導體是本世紀的關鍵商品，也是中國長期以來的軟肋。在華為近期取得突破性進展的引領下，中國正在構建自給自足的供應鏈。至關重要的是，中國在這些以及其他相關技術領域的優勢正在形成一個良性循環，多個相互關聯的領域的進步彼此促進、相互增強。

然而，特朗普仍然執迷於關稅。他似乎根本沒意識到中國構成的威脅有多大。在兩國上周一宣布同意削減貿易關稅之前，特朗普還對此前針對中國商品征收的高額關稅會導致美國商店貨架空空如也的擔憂不以為然。他說，美國人隻不過是得少給孩子買幾個娃娃而已——這種將中國描繪成玩具和其他廉價商品工廠的說法如今早已過時。

美國需要認識到，關稅或其他貿易壓力都無法讓中國放棄行之有效的國家主導型經濟政策，也無法讓中國突然采納美國人認為公平的產業和貿易政策。相反，北京正在加倍推行其國家主導型路線，以“曼哈頓計劃”式的戰略，致力於實現高科技產業的主導地位。

中國也麵臨著嚴峻的挑戰。盡管有跡象表明房地產市場可能終於開始複蘇，但長期低迷的房地產市場仍在拖累經濟增長。此外，勞動力萎縮和人口老齡化等長期挑戰也迫在眉睫。但多年來，懷疑論者一直預測中國經濟會達到頂峰，然後不可避免地走向衰退，但每次都被證明是錯誤的。無論自由市場倡導者是否認同，中國國家主導體製的持久力量如今已是不爭的事實。該體製能夠根據國家長遠利益靈活調整方向、改變政策並重新分配資源。

特朗普盲目迷戀關稅等短期權宜之計，正在積極地破壞美國強大的根基，同時加速中國主導世界的到來。

如果中美兩國繼續沿著目前的道路發展，中國最終很可能完全主導高端製造業，從汽車、芯片到核磁共振成像儀和商用飛機，無一例外。

人工智能霸權之爭的戰場並非中美兩國，而是深圳、杭州等中國高科技城市。作為世界首屈一指的科技和經濟超級大國，中國工廠將遍布全球，供應鏈也將以中國為中心進行重構。

https://cn.nytimes.com/opinion/20250519/china-us-trade-tariffs/

相比之下，美國最終可能會走向嚴重的衰落。在關稅壁壘的庇護下，美國企業幾乎隻向國內消費者銷售產品。國際銷售的損失將降低企業利潤，導致其用於運營的投資減少。隨著美國製造成本的上升，美國消費者將不得不購買質量平庸但價格高於全球產品的美國產品。工薪家庭將麵臨通貨膨脹加劇和收入停滯不前的困境。汽車製造和製藥等傳統高價值產業已經轉移到中國；未來重要的產業也將隨之轉移。試想一下，如果底特律或克利夫蘭的局麵在美國各地重現，將會是怎樣一番景象。

避免這種嚴峻局麵意味著要做出一些顯而易見且已獲得兩黨支持的政策選擇——而且必須立即行動：投資研發；支持學術界、科技界和企業創新；與世界各國建立經濟聯係；並為國際人才和資本創造一個友好且具有吸引力的環境。然而，特朗普政府在這些領域卻恰恰相反。

本世紀究竟屬於中國還是美國，取決於我們。

但改變方向的時間已經不多了。

A century belonging to China may have arrived

KYLE CHAN  May 19, 2025

For years, theorists have envisioned the advent of a “ Chinese Century ”: a world in which China eventually uses its vast economic and technological potential to surpass the United States and reshape the global balance of power so that it is centered on Beijing.

That century may have already arrived, and when historians look back, they will likely point to the first few months of President Trump’s second term as a watershed moment in which China pulled away and left the United States behind.

It mattered little that Washington and Beijing reached a temporary, fruitless truce in Mr. Trump’s trade war. The president’s immediate claim of victory only highlighted the fundamental problem facing his administration and the United States: a myopic focus on inconsequential skirmishes while it is losing the more critical war with China.

Trump is wreaking havoc on the pillars of American power and innovation. His tariffs are jeopardizing American companies’ access to global markets and supply chains. He is slashing public research funding, weakening our universities , and forcing talented researchers to consider leaving the United States for other countries He wants to scale back technology programs like clean energy and semiconductor manufacturing, and eliminate American soft power in large swaths of the globe.

China’s trajectory is very different.

China already leads the world in production of steel, aluminum, shipbuilding, batteries, solar, electric vehicles, wind turbines, drones, 5G equipment, consumer electronics, active pharmaceutical ingredients, and high-speed rail. By 2030, China is expected to account for 45% of global manufacturing, nearly half. Beijing is also very focused on winning the future: in March, it announced a 1 trillion yuan national venture capital fund to make long-term investments in cutting-edge technologies such as quantum computing and robotics, and increased the public research and development budget.

China's approach has achieved amazing results.

In January, when the Chinese startup Deepin launched its AI chatbot, many Americans suddenly realized that China could compete in the field of artificial intelligence. But there are many more “Sputnik moments” like this.

Trump’s political ally Elon Musk once made a joke of Chinese electric car maker BYD, but the company sold more cars worldwide last year than Tesla, is building new factories around the world , and in March was worth more than Ford, GM, and Volkswagen combined. China is leading the way in drug discovery, especially in cancer treatments, and in 2023 installed more industrial robots than the rest of the world combined. Semiconductors are the critical commodity of this century and China’s long-standing Achilles’ heel. Led by Huawei’s recent breakthrough, China is building a self-sufficient supply chain. Crucially, China’s strengths in these and other overlapping technologies are creating a virtuous cycle in which advances in multiple interconnected fields feed and enhance each other.

Yet Trump remains obsessed with tariffs. He doesn’t even seem to realize how big a threat China poses. Before the two countries announced last Monday that they had agreed to cut trade tariffs, Trump dismissed concerns that his previous sky-high tariffs on Chinese goods would leave American store shelves empty. Americans, he said, would just have to buy their kids a few fewer dolls — a narrative that cast China as a factory for toys and other cheap goods that is now completely outdated.

The United States needs to recognize that neither tariffs nor other trade pressures can make China abandon the state-led economic policies that have worked so well and suddenly adopt industrial and trade policies that Americans believe are fair. Instead, Beijing is doubling down on its state-led approach, focusing on achieving high-tech industrial dominance in a “Manhattan Project” style.

China faces daunting challenges, too. A prolonged downturn in the housing market continues to weigh on economic growth, though there are signs that the sector may finally be recovering. Longer-term challenges also loom, such as a shrinking workforce and an aging population. But skeptics have been predicting a peak in China’s economy and an inevitable decline for years, only to be proven wrong every time. Whether free-market advocates agree or not, the enduring strength of China’s state-led system, which can pivot, change policies, and reallocate resources at will to serve the country’s long-term interests, is now undeniable.

Trump’s blind obsession with short-term expedients like tariffs is actively undermining the foundations of American greatness while only accelerating the arrival of a world dominated by China.

If both countries continue on their current trajectory, China will likely eventually completely dominate high-end manufacturing, from cars and chips to MRI machines and commercial aircraft. The battle for AI supremacy will not be between the United States and China, but between Chinese high-tech cities such as Shenzhen and Hangzhou. As the preeminent world technological and economic superpower, Chinese factories will be spread all over the world, and supply chains will be reconfigured with China at the center.

https://cn.nytimes.com/opinion/20250519/china-us-trade-tariffs/
The United States, by contrast, could end up as a country in serious decline. Sheltered by tariff barriers, American companies will sell almost exclusively to domestic consumers. Loss of international sales will reduce corporate earnings, leaving them with less money to invest in their operations. As U.S. manufacturing costs rise, American consumers will be stuck with American products that are mediocre but more expensive than global products. Working families will face rising inflation and stagnant incomes. Traditional high-value industries such as auto manufacturing and pharmaceuticals have already gone to China; future important industries will go with them. Imagine a Detroit or Cleveland scenario across the country.

Avoiding this dire situation means making policy choices that should be obvious and already have bipartisan support—making them today: investing in research and development; supporting academic, technological, and corporate innovation; building economic ties with countries around the world; and creating a welcoming, attractive environment for international talent and capital. Yet the Trump administration is doing just the opposite in these areas.

Whether this century belongs to China or the United States is up to us.

But time is running out to change course.