馬斯克，中國如何避免世界大戰

 

馬斯克，中國如何避免世界大戰，中國人有哪些有趣的特點，一針見血！

2025年1月26日 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PC8UdvFXAcI

你坦誠地談到了如果不能找到外交解決方案，我們和中國之間長期發生戰爭的可能性，例如台灣問題和一個中國政策，對吧，我們如何避免這兩個超級大國發生衝突的軌跡，嗯，值得一讀那本關於難以發音的 Theus trap 的書，我相信它叫我愛戰爭史，我喜歡內部藝術和倒敘，幾乎沒有一場戰鬥我沒讀過，並試圖弄清楚，在任何特定情況下，真正的勝利原因是什麽，而不是一方或另一方聲稱的勝利原因和引發戰爭的原因，是的，是的，整個事情，是的，所以雅典和斯巴達是經典案例，關於希臘人的事情是他們真的寫下了很多東西，他們喜歡寫作，嗯，你知道，世界上很多地方都發生過很多有趣的事情，但人們沒有寫下來，所以我們不知道發生了什麽，或者他們沒有詳細記錄，他們隻會說，我們打了一場仗，我們贏了，你能再補充一點嗎，嗯，希臘人真的寫了很多，他們非常善於表達，他們隻是喜歡寫作，所以我們有很多這樣的作品被保存下來，所以我們知道是什麽導致了斯巴達人和雅典人之間的皮皮亞戰爭，聯盟嗯，我們知道他們，他們，他們相當預見到了，嗯，我的意思是斯巴達人沒有，他們也不是很擅長奧塞，他們的天性就是這樣，但他們做得對，但他們不是很擅長，呃，但雅典人和其他希臘人寫了一行字，他們就像嗯，斯巴達人是有點像希臘的領導者，但是雅典每年都變得越來越強大，嗯，每個人都覺得雅典和斯巴達之間不可避免地會發生衝突，嗯，我們如何避免這種情況，他們不能，他們不能，他們實際上來了，他們仍然無法避免，所以你知道在某個時候，如果一個文明或國家或任何文明超過另一個文明，就像你知道美國自 1890 年以來一直是最大的孩子一樣，從經濟角度來看，美國一直是世界上最強大的經濟引擎，比任何人活著的時間都長，戰爭的基礎是經濟，所以現在我們在中國的情況是，經濟可能是美國的兩倍甚至三倍，所以想象一下從人們的記憶中，你一直是街區裏最大的孩子，突然間，一個孩子出現了，他有你的兩倍大，所以我們看到了它的到來，是的，怎麽可能停止，有沒有讓我拋出一些東西，隻是文化的融合理解，似乎確實存在著巨大的文化差距，相互理解，你是一個有趣的案例研究，因為你是美國人，顯然你在美國做了很多令人難以置信的製造業，但你也與中國合作，我在中國呆了很多時間，並多次會見了領導層，也許一個好問題是，中國有哪些東西是人們不理解的，隻是在文化方麵，你了解到了什麽有趣的事情，嗯，中國真正聰明勤奮的人的數量，真是令人難以置信，你說中國有多少聰明勤奮的人，遠不止這些我認為那裏的人數比這裏多，而且他們有很多精力，所以我的意思是近年來中國的建築比美國更令人印象深刻，火車站、建築物、高鐵等一切都比美國更令人印象深刻，我建議有人去上海和北京看看這些建築，然後坐火車從北京到西安，那裏有兵馬俑，中國有著令人難以置信的曆史，非常悠久的曆史，我認為可以說從書麵語言的角度來看，它是最古老的書麵語言之一，也許可能是最古老的書麵語言，然後中國人確實把東西寫下來了，所以現在中國曆史上除了極少數例外一直專注於內部，他們沒有很好奇，他們之間發生過很多次內戰，在三國戰爭中，我相信他們損失了大約 70% 的人口，所以他們發生了殘酷的內戰，比如內戰，相比之下，美國內戰就顯得微不足道了，所以我認為重要的是要認識到中國並不是鐵板一塊，我們認為中國是一個思想統一的整體，但事實絕非如此。從我所見，我認為大多數了解中國的人都會同意，中國人對中國的思考比他們對中國以外任何事物的思考多 10 倍，所以他們 90% 的考慮都是內部的，當你談論超級大國之間的合作和未來的和平時，這難道不是一件非常積極的事情嗎？當你麵向內部時，這就像專注於提高自己，而不是專注於通過軍事力量來提高他人。好消息是，中國的曆史表明，中國並不好奇，這意味著他們不會出去入侵一大堆國家，嗯，現在他們確實感覺非常強烈，所以這很好，我的意思是，因為很多非常強大的國家都好奇，嗯，美國是其中之一，也是二戰後少數不好奇的國家之一II
美國基本上可以接管世界和任何國家，比如我們有核武器，其他國家都沒有核武器，我們甚至不必失去士兵，呃你想要哪個國家，MH，美國可以接管一切，哦，隨心所欲，但它沒有，嗯，美國實際上幫助重建國家，所以幫助重建歐洲，你幫助重建日本，嗯，這是非常不尋常的行為，幾乎是史無前例的，嗯，你知道美國做了明顯的善舉，比如柏林空運，嗯，我想你知道，它總是像美國做了壞事，當然美國做了壞事，但人們需要看看整個記錄，嗯，一般來說，你知道一種測試是你如何對待你的戰俘，嗯，或者讓我們說，嗯，你知道沒有冒犯俄羅斯人，但假設你在德國，那是 1945 年，你看到俄羅斯軍隊從一邊過來，你看到法國、英國和美國軍隊從另一邊過來，誰你願意向哪個國家投降嗎
就像沒有哪個國家在道德上是完美的
但我建議嗯，與美國人一起成為 PW，這將是我非常強烈地選擇在 P 的完整菜單中
所以事實上 V Von Brown 嗯，是的，你知道聰明的家夥呃，就像我們必須被美國人抓獲一樣
是的，呃事實上，黨衛軍奉命處決布朗和所有呃德國火箭工程師呃，他們僥幸逃脫了他們的 SSR，他們說他們要出去在樹林裏散步，他們在冬天中旬離開，沒有外套呃，他們跑得像，沒有食物，沒有外套，沒有水，隻是拚命地跑，跑向西方呃，而 Sherlock 他們，我想他的兄弟找到了一輛自行車或什麽東西，嗯，然後盡可能快地騎車向西，找到了美國巡邏隊嗯，所以無論如何，這就是一
這是判斷道德的一種方式，就是你想成為 PW，哪裏都不好玩，但有些地方比其他地方糟糕得多，所以嗯，無論如何，所以所以所以我認為美國雖然遠非完美，但總體上是一支仁慈的力量，嗯，我們應該始終自我批評，努力變得更好，嗯，但嗯，任何有一半正確觀點的人都知道這一點，所以我認為中國和美國在這方麵是相似的，兩個國家都沒有以顯著的方式進行探究，所以這就像一個共同的原則，我想嗯，現在中國對台灣確實有非常強烈的感覺，他們長期以來一直非常清楚這一點，嗯，你知道從他們的立場來看，它就像其中一個州，你知道，不是像夏威夷或類似的東西，但比夏威夷更重要，你知道嗯，夏威夷對我們來說非常重要，所以嗯，他們認為這是中國的一個基本組成部分，福薩島不是台灣，它不是中國的一部分，但應該是，唯一沒有成為中國一部分的原因是美國太平洋艦隊，他們的經濟實力在增長，軍事實力在增長，他們明確表示，他們的利益是否會實現，是的，中國已經非常清楚，他們將以和平或軍事的方式兼並台灣，但從他們的立場來看，他們會兼並台灣是 100% 可能的，你知道你說過，作為一種地緣政治政策，明顯的善舉幾乎看起來很幼稚，但我敢說，這可能是避免大多數戰爭的前進道路，就像你說的那樣，這聽起來很幼稚，但如果你相信大多數人性中都潛藏著善良，這聽起來很聰明，明顯的善舉似乎可以在相關國家的民眾中產生反響，嗯，絕對緩和，所以第一次世界大戰後，他們犯了一個大錯誤，你知道他們基本上試圖把所有的責任都推到德國身上，嗯，嗯，你知道用不可能的賠償解決了 JY，嗯，你知道真的有很多 BL，第一次世界大戰有很多責任，但是他們試著把一切都放在德國，嗯，這就是第二次世界大戰的種子，所以很多人，不僅僅是希特勒，很多人都覺得受到了委屈，嗯，他們想要複仇，他們得到了它，人們不會忘記，是的，你殺了別人的父親、母親、兒子、女兒，他們不會忘記，他們會想要複仇，嗯，所以二戰後，他們就像《維拉伊條約》是第一次世界大戰中一個巨大的錯誤，嗯，所以這一次，我們不是粉碎失敗者，而是幫助他們製定軍事計劃，我們將幫助德國革命，我們將幫助奧地利和意大利等等，所以嗯，這是正確的舉動，嗯，確實感覺有一個深刻的真理，呃，這些引人注目的行為作為這種現象的解藥，必須有某種東西來阻止這種相互暴力的循環，某種東西會阻止它，否則它就會停止，你知道它會永遠不會停止，以眼還眼，以牙還牙，以肢還肢，以命換命，直到永遠

馬斯克，中國如何避免世界大戰，中國人有哪些有趣的特點，一針見血！

2025年1月26日 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PC8UdvFXAcI

You' spoken honestly about the
possibility of war between us and China
in the long term if no diplomatic
solution is found for example on the
question of Taiwan and one China policy
right how do we avoid the trajectory
where these two superpowers
Clash well it's it's worth reading that
book on the the difficult to pronounce
Theus trap I believe it's called I love
war history I like inside art and
backwards um there's hardly a battle I
haven't read about and and trying to figure out like
what what really was the cause of
victory in any particular case as
opposed to what one side or another
claimed the reason both the Victory and
what sparked the war and yeah yeah the
whole thing yeah so that Athens and
Sparta it's classic case the thing about
the Greeks is they really wrote down a
lot of stuff they loved writing um you
know there lots of interesting things
that happened in many parts of the world
but they people didn't write down so we
don't know what happened or they didn't
really right with in detail they just would say like
we went we had a battle and we won and
like what can you add a bit more um the
the the Greeks they really wrote a
lot they were very articulate on they
just love writing so and we have a bunch
of that writing that's preserved so we
know what led up to the pipian war
between um the spoton and Athenian
Alliance um and uh we we know that they
they they for quite they they saw it
coming mhm I mean the Spartans didn't
right they also weren't very for aose by
their nature but they did right but they
weren't very they were t uh but the the
Athenians and the other Greeks wrote
wrote a line and they were
like um and spot was really kind of like
the leader of of Greece um but but
Athens grew stronger and stronger with
each passing year and um and everyone was like well
that's inevitable that there's going to
be a clash between Athens and
Sparta uh well how do we avoid that and
they couldn't they couldn't they
actually they soed coming and they still
could not avoid it so you know at some point if there's
if if one uh group one civilization or or
country or whatever um exceeds another sort of like if you
know the United States has been the
biggest kid on the Block for since I
think GR 1890 from an economic standpoint so the
United States has been the economic most
powerful economic engine in the world
longer than anyone's been alive um and the foundation of war is
economics so now we have a situation in the case
of china where the um the economy is
likely to be two perhaps three times larger than that
of the US so imagine you're the biggest
kid on the Block for as long as anyone
can remember and suddenly a kid comes
along he's twice your size so we see it coming yeah how is it
possible to stop is there some let me
throw something out there just
intermixing of cultures understanding
there does seem to be a giant cultural
Gap in understanding of each other and
you're an interesting case study because
you are an American obviously you've
done a lot of uh incredible manufactur here in the
United States but you also work with
China I've spent a lot of time in China
and met with the leadership many times
maybe a good question to ask is what are
some things about China that people
don't understand positive just in the
culture what's some interesting things
that you've learned about the
Chinese well uh the the sheer number of
really smart hardworking people in China
is is um incredible uh there are really
you say like how many smart hardworking
people are there in China there's far
more of them there than there are here I
think in my in my opinion
um the uh and they've got a lot of
energy so I mean the architecture in China
that's in recent years is far more
impressive than the US I mean the the
train stations the buildings the
highspeed rail everything it's
um really far more impressive than what
we have in the US I I mean I recommend
somebody just go to Shanghai and
Beijing look at the buildings and go to
you know take the train from Beijing to
Shion where you have the Terracotta
Warriors um China's got incredible
history uh very long history and um you
know I think arguably the in terms of
the use of language from from a written
standpoint um sort of one of one of the
oldest Perhaps Perhaps the oldest
written language and and then China
people did write things down
so um now China um historically has
always been with rare exception been
internally focused um they've not been
inquisitive uh they've theyve fought
each other there been many many Civil
Wars um in the Three Kingdoms War I
believe they lost about 70% of their
population so that so the they've had
brutal internal Wars like civil wars
that make the US Civil War look small by comparison um so I think it's important to appreciate that China is not monolithic um we sort of think of like
China is a sort of one entity of one
mind and this is definitely not the case
um from what I've seen and I think most
people who understand China would agree
people in China think about China 10
times more than they think about
anything outside of China so it's like
90% of their consideration is uh you
know are is is internal well isn't that
a really positive thing when you're
talking about the collaboration and a
future peace between superpowers when
you're inward facing which is like
focusing on improving yourself versus
focusing on yeah uh quote unquote
improving others through military might
the good news the history of China
suggests that China is not inquisitive
meaning they're not going to go out and
invade a whole bunch of countries um now
they do feel very strongly you know so
that's that's good I mean because a lot
of lot of very powerful countries have
been inquisitive um the US is one of the
also one of the rare cases that has not
been inquisitive like after World War II
the us could have basically taking over
the world and any country like we got
nukes nobody else got nukes we don't
even have to lose soldiers uh which country do you want MH
and the United States could have taken
over everything oh at will and it didn't
um the United States actually helped
rebuil countries so helped rebuild
Europe you it helped rebuild Japan um
this is very unusual behavior almost
unprecedented um you know the US did conspicuous acts
of kindness like the Berlin
airlift you know um and and I think you know it's always
like well America's done bad things well
of course America's done bad things but
one needs to look at the the whole track
record um and and just generally you know one one sort of test
would be how do you treat your prisoners
of War mhm or let's say um you know no offense to the Russians but
let's say you're in Germany it's 1945
you got the Russian army coming on one
side you got the French British and
American armies coming to the other side
who would you like to be to surrender to
like no country is like morally perfect
but I recommend um being a PW with the
Americans that would be my choice very
strongly in the full menu of P very much
so and in fact V Von Brown um yeah took you
know smart guy uh was like we've got to
be captured by the Americans
yeah and uh in fact the SS was under
orders to execute bar Brown and all of
the uh German rocket Engineers uh and
they narrowly escaped their SSR they
said they were going out for a walk in
the woods they left in the middle of
winter with no coats uh and they ran
like like and with no food no coat no
water and just ran like hell uh and ran
West um and by Sherlock they I think his
brother found like a a bicycle or
something and um and then just cycled
West as fast as he could and found found
a US Patrol um so anyway that's that's one
that's one way you can tell morality is who who where do you
want to be a PW it's not fun anywhere but some places
are much worse than others so um anyway so so so I think America has
been uh while far from perfect uh
generally a benevolent Force um and uh
we should always be self-critical and uh
try to be better um but um anyone with
half right knows that so so I think
there are in this way China and uh the
United States are similar NE neither
country has been inquisitive um in a significant way so that's like a
you know a shared principle I guess um
now now China does feel very strongly
about Taiwan they've been very clear about
that for a long time um you know from
their standpoint it's it's it would be
like one of the states is is is you know
not there like like Hawaii or something
like that but but more significant than
Hawaii you know um and Hawai is pretty significant for
us so um they view it as as as really
the there's a fundamental part of
China the island of fosa not not Taiwan
that is um not part of China but should
be uh and the only reason it hasn't been
is because of the US Pacific
Fleet and is there economic power grows
and is there military power
grows the thing that they are clearly
saying uh is their interest will you know
clearly be materialized yes China has been very clear that um
they will incorporate Taiwan uh
peacefully or uh militarily but that
they will incorporate it from their
standpoint is 100% likely you know something you said about
conspicuous acts of kindness as a
geopolitical policy it almost seems
naive but I'd venture to say that this is
probably the path forward how you avoid
most wars just as you say it it sounds
naive but it's kind of brilliant if you believe in the goodness
of underlying most of human nature it
just seems like conspicuous acts of
kindness can uh reverberate through the
populace of the countries involved
yeah well and deescalate absolutely so
after World War I the the they made a
big mistake you know they basically
tried to lump all the blame on Germany
um and um and and you know settled JY with uh
impossible reparations um and you know really there was a lot
of BL there was a fair quite a bit of
blame to um go around for World War I um
but they they try to you know put it all
in Germany um and uh that was that that laid the
seeds for World War II uh so a lot of people well not just Hitler
a lot of people felt wronged um
and they wanted Vengeance and they got it people don't
forget yeah you you kill somebody's father mother son daughter
they're not going to forget it they will
want Vengeance um so after World War II
they're like well the Treaty of verai
was a huge mistake um in World War
one and um so this time instead
of uh you know crushing the losers we're
we're actually going to help them with
the martiall plan and we're going to help R Revol Germany
we're going to help rol or you know
Austria and the other you know Italy and
whatnot so um that was the right move there is uh
it does feel like there's a profound
truth to uh the conspicuous acts of kind
as being an antidote to this something must stop the the cycle
of reciprocal violence something will stop it or it will you
know it'll it'll it'll never stop
just eye for an eye tooth for a tooth
limb for a limb life for a life forever
and ever