Jeffrey Sachs Mearsheimer 意見分歧的地方

傑弗裏·薩克斯和約翰·米爾斯海默意見分歧的地方

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QojwHRTCWls&t=75s
2024年8月15日
傑弗裏·薩克斯的世界觀與約翰·米爾斯海默等現實主義者的世界觀有何不同？

傑弗裏·薩克斯認為和平與國際合作至關重要且可以實現。他和約翰·米爾斯海默的不同之處在於，他認為在政府無政府關係中，悲劇是不可避免的。他的觀點是，由於無政府世界中存在如此多的不安全因素，大國不僅必然會相互爭鬥，而且還會爭奪主導地位。如果兩個國家爭奪主導地位，那麽一個贏，一個輸。這是一個零和博弈，或者說是負和博弈。事實上，他的書名《大國政治的悲劇》暗示了一場負和博弈，在這種博弈中，鬥爭不斷，在某種意義上，災難隨之而來。

約翰因準確的預測而備受讚譽，比如他預測美國對俄羅斯的外交政策，特別是在烏克蘭的外交政策將導致我們走向對抗。他因此備受讚譽，因為他在 2014 年就非常清楚這一點，並且從那時起就一直如此。他還做出了一個更有力的預測，早在 2001 年、2002 年他的巨著出版時，他就說過：“美國和中國的關係是良性的，但隨著中國繼續發展，它們將發展為敵對關係。”

大國政治的悲劇

https://www.amazon.ca/Tragedy-Great-Power-Politics/dp/0393349276
作者：約翰·米爾斯海默 (John J. Mearsheimer) 2014 年 4 月 8 日

這本關於大國行為的經典論文的更新版深入探討了可能主導 21 世紀國際關係的問題：中國能否和平崛起？約翰·米爾斯海默以清晰、雄辯的散文解釋了為什麽答案是否定的：崛起的中國將尋求主宰亞洲，而決心繼續保持世界唯一地區霸權的美國將不遺餘力地阻止這種情況發生。大國政治的悲劇是不可避免的。

Here’s Where Jeffrey Sachs and John Mearsheimer Disagree

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QojwHRTCWls&t=75s
2024年8月15日
How does Jeffrey Sachs' worldview differ from that of realists like John Mearsheimer?

Jeffrey Sachs believes that peace and international cooperation are vital and achievable. And the difference between him and John Mearsheimer is that he believes that in the anarchic relations of governments, tragedy is inevitable. His view is that because there is so much insecurity in an anarchic world, great powers are bound not only to jostle with each other but to struggle for dominance. And if two are struggling for dominance, one wins and one loses. The setup is a zero-sum, or I would say a negative-sum game. In fact, the title of his book, The Tragedy of Great Power Politics, suggests a negative-sum game where the struggle goes on and in some sense, a disaster ensues.

John gets a lot of credit for accurate predictions, like his predictions that US foreign policy vis-a-vis Russia and specifically in Ukraine would lead us to confrontation. He gets a lot of credit for that because he was very clear on that point in 2014 and has been clear on that ever since. And he also made a prediction, which is in a way even more powerful, that back in 2001, 2002 when his great book was published, he said, "The relations between the US and China are benign, but as China continues to grow, they will develop into hostility."

The Tragedy of Great Power Politics 

https://www.amazon.ca/Tragedy-Great-Power-Politics/dp/0393349276
by John J. Mearsheimer (Author) April 8 2014

The updated edition of this classic treatise on the behavior of great powers takes a penetrating look at the question likely to dominate international relations in the twenty-first century: Can China rise peacefully? In clear, eloquent prose, John Mearsheimer explains why the answer is no: a rising China will seek to dominate Asia, while the United States, determined to remain the world's sole regional hegemon, will go to great lengths to prevent that from happening. The tragedy of great power politics is inescapable.