基辛格所長Robert Daly 中美關係 挑戰與機遇

基辛格所長Robert Daly 中美關係 挑戰與機遇

中美關係：新政府和國會的挑戰與機遇

伍德羅威爾遜中心

2024 年 11 月 22 日
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5jyymxFrO5Y

Robert Daly, Director of the Wilson Center's Kissinger Institute
威爾遜中心基辛格中美研究所所長羅伯特·戴利（Robert Daly）也加入了本期的威爾遜中心。

他重點介紹了他最近的中國之行，並討論了北京如何通過深化與盟友和全球南方國家的關係、提振其國內科技行業以及為經濟應對關稅增加做好準備，為特朗普第二屆政府做好準備。

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紐約北京人的男主角將羅伯特·戴利作為中國人的人性、人性、人性靈魂都人性化了。
但在政治的範圍內，他仍然停留在西方的頭腦中，沒有清楚地看到民主正在把權力授予那些沒有人腦、沒有人性、沒有人靈魂的魯莽者，他們隻能用非人性的方式來毀掉人民的生活。世界人民。

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你好，我是約翰·梅斯基，這裏是威爾遜中心，現在是伍德羅·威爾遜國際學者中心的產物，今天的客人是老朋友羅伯特
戴利是威爾遜中心基辛格中美研究所所長，他定期與我們一起提供有關中華人民共和國的最新情況，在這種情況下，羅伯特，你剛剛進行了一次大流行後第一次回國旅行去中國呆了大約三個星期 我在那裏呆了三個星期然後上周
我在科羅拉多州與一個中國高級代表團一起討論了新政府領導下的關係，所以對你來說花時間在中國做一些事情是多麽重要
你的工作很重要，呃，了解接近了解人們的真實想法，他們如何看待中國，他們如何看待美國，他們如何談論呃，這確實是我對薪水的唯一要求，華盛頓有很多人看待中國通過望遠鏡呃，這就是我在新冠疫情期間所做的，然後對其中一些陳述的位置做出非常確定的陳述，呃，但他們往往會錯過紋理的複雜性中國人自己認為的地方和方式，在過去的十年裏，我們有一種傾向，將我們對中國的看法簡化為共產黨，並將我們對中國的看法簡化為習近平本人，因此中國研究變成了習近平研究現在有可以理解的原因，公司是其中之一，但你也知道共產黨日益絕對的權力和習近平在其中的地位，他是唯一的決定製造商呃，但如果你回想一下，當我們有更強大的總統時，任何外國分析人士如果隻將美國視為那位總統，以及他們所說的話，你在這裏我們都知道一切有多麽重要，一切都很重要，那就大錯特錯了中國也是如此，所以你必須在那裏，你知道嗎？我知道你在幾個周期前進行了這次預選，嗯，與她交談，你如何比較這兩者，美國的興趣更高上次大選，他們對唐納德·特朗普的看法是什麽，他們第一次試探他的身材，你能告訴我們幾件事嗎？首先，呃，關於美國的負麵敘述現在在中國比在中國根深蒂固得多。他們是，我指的不是簡單的反美主義，而是來自中國宣傳的下意識的反美主義，我指的是反美敘事，嗯，這些信念那些對美國有良好和謹慎思考的人認為，美國，呃，雖然仍然是世界上最強大的國家，但正在衰落，這是相當強烈的感覺，美國對中國所涉足的世界廣大地區不感興趣。對非洲、拉丁美洲、東南亞、中亞的活躍感興趣，這非常強大，即使中國現在正處於經濟危機之中，人們仍然相信中國正在崛起，而美國正在衰弱，這是根深蒂固的觀點，而唐納德·特朗普在 2016 年第一次競選總統時，情況並非如此，正如你所指出的，我到中國進行了一次長途旅行，然後在那段時間進行中文講座橫跨民主黨和共和黨全國代表大會，隻是簡單地談論這個製度，因此對希拉裏·克林頓·唐納德·特朗普呃競爭的興趣當時很高，但並不是在這種對美國信仰的背景下下降，所以這是現在最大的區別之一，另一個是，他們覺得是的，他們知道唐納德·特朗普，他們已經經曆過這一切，他們不會感到驚訝，他們已經準備好了，呃，他們完全期望得到被火車撞到，或者臉上挨了一拳，或者任何正確的類比，你知道，在政府上任的第一天，你知道，關稅更高，貿易戰死灰複燃，他們還沒有準備好迎接第一天時間呃他們現在已經準備好了他們仍然寧願我這沒有發生，他們不會喜歡它，但他們已經準備好了，呃，謝伊總統如何成長為世界領導人的角色，你知道，我是我，你提到了中國對他感興趣的事實全球部分地區，或者至少是中國人的看法是，美國已經放棄或分散了對羅伯特·秘魯上周的熱烈歡迎。他抵達利馬參加亞太經合組織峰會，中國領導人甚至獲得了進行國事訪問的榮幸；相比之下，喬·拜登在空軍一號降落時受到了簡單的問候，然後開始像對待美國總統一樣對待美國總統。回水州甚至確保在公共場合看到這種羞辱，例如在領導人的合影中
參加峰會時，她站在前排秘魯總統右邊的榮譽位置，拜登被安排在後排的角落，美國，呃，美國人有時稱之為他們的後院，正在受到不尊重，而另一方麵，中國看起來很強勢貿易和投資在該地區占據主導地位 這是《新聞周刊》雜誌的評論 你知道這一切如何影響她成為主要人物的願望世界領導人，所以這句話在細節上基本上是正確的，呃，中國尚未在該地區占據主導地位，但他們正在移動，趨勢線應該讓我們非常關注，這也是習近平獲得如此多的關注的原因之一一個很好的反響是，秘魯的陳港在利馬以北開放了一個深水港，可以停泊軍艦和集裝箱船，並且正在開放那是一個中國建造的，並將是一個中國經營的港口，然後習近平將從秘魯前往巴西，呃，他在那裏建立了非常牢固的關係，主要基於貿易，但它比貿易更廣泛，呃，這不僅僅是中國的故事活動，但也是美國忽視的呃中國可以給這些地區帶來如此多的呃財富貿易呃投資貸款呃如果
美國繼續與該地區打交道，與非洲打交道，就像中國現在明確表示，它應該成為全球南方的領導者，這有點奇怪，呃，你知道中國是世界第二大國，所以它是不清楚它是否以任何有意義的方式成為全球南方的一部分，但它有一個可以追溯到萬隆會議的傳統，即認為自己與欠發達地區或發展中國家保持一致，他們現在正在利用他們所聲稱的美國煽動烏克蘭和加沙戰爭作為其中的一部分，他們正在取得進展，呃，這是不平衡的，它在中東正在加速，呃，中國發現它的進展嗯，共產黨領導下的對技術高度感興趣的發展型國家實際上與中東的神權政治非常匹配，中東也想要發展教育和技術，但在你知道的手下老牌政黨他們才剛剛在中東起步，所以我們需要有我們必須擁有的全球視野，我認為第一屆特朗普政府以及在某些方麵拜登政府沒有呃新闡述的令人信服的對美國人民可以支持的美國全球角色的描述，這在至少八年的時間裏一直是一個挑戰，可能更長，而且我認為，當我們進入新的特朗普政府時，當你看到出口時，它仍然是一個巨大的挑戰剛剛完成的美國總統選舉的民意調查呃移民經濟排名第一和第二的經濟可能特別是通貨膨脹呃在國際舞台上的背景下當然加沙織機很大特別是在密歇根州和呃呃當你與中國人交談時，烏克蘭持續不斷的衝突是什麽？他們的雷達屏幕上有什麽貿易戰，你知道，當中國已經因國內原因而陷入某種程度的困境時，情況將會變得多麽糟糕，嗯，對技術轉讓的技術限製，我們在拜登政府領導下實施的出口管製，以限製中國先進計算的發展呃，先進芯片是一個大領域，這些領域，呃，他們非常擔心，他們正在準備防禦措施，他們一直在呃解耦，像我們一樣拿他們的經濟冒險
他們一直在努力通過製裁證明他們的經濟，他們在尋找新市場方麵非常成功，這是回到拉丁美洲的一部分，這就是你知道美國和歐洲可能不會購買中國的電動汽車，但他們“它們相對便宜，部分原因是製造它們的公司不會從中獲利，因此它們可以銷往非洲、拉丁美洲和東南亞。”亞洲並主導這些市場，因此他們一直忙於為中國商品尋找替代供應來源和新市場，為新的貿易戰做準備，這場貿易戰主要以技術為中心，他們對全球訂單更有信心他們知道美國不會再在中國活躍的非洲或拉丁美洲地區真正活躍，他們知道他們正在中東取得進展，他們正在尋找機會挑撥美國及其合作夥伴之間的關係，因為他們知道，歐洲和東北亞的美國合作夥伴對這次選舉的結果感到有些震驚，他們認為這些國家也擔心美國的合作夥伴和盟友對韓國和韓國的關稅感到擔憂。日本要求他們為美國在其國家的軍事基地支付更多費用，因此中國正在尋找他們對全球秩序非常有信心的人連貫的敘述 對他們想在世界上扮演的角色的感覺 他們不能總是做到這一點 這裏也存在非自我認識和不連貫的領域 呃，我認為他們低估了美國的一些剩餘優勢，但他們他說：“我們不確定特朗普政府是否會重視這些優勢，因此預計他們會在習近平在達沃斯發表演講時在全球秩序方麵采取更積極的行動。”一月份就職日之前，正如他在 2017 年所做的那樣，將中國描述為當前秩序的維護者和穩定的提供者。我想回到有關全球秩序和中國角色的問題，但我首先想談談你談到呃技術和貿易戰呃潛在的貿易戰中國是否在諸如人工智能等領域看到了機會，這些領域存在激烈的競爭，或者呃呃氣候相關如果唐納德·特朗普的第二屆政府與他的第一屆政府一樣，那麽中國很快就可以宣稱自己是氣候技術的領導者，呃，盡管中國仍然是世界上最大的溫室氣體排放國，這是事實，並將在很長一段時間內繼續如此時間，但你也知道他們安裝了呃風和太陽能產能專業向世界提供太陽能電池板，實際上市場目前正在下降，但它可能會回來鋰電池電子汽車呃中國已經領先世界，並且正在將其作為其外交的一部分，特別是在哪些領域我們現在把全球南方稱為發展中國家，它不僅在經濟上為中國服務，而且在外交上為中國服務，作為全球公共產品的提供者，呃，所以即使我說他們仍然是世界上最大的汙染者，呃，他們仍在燃燒大量煤炭並建造燃煤發電廠，他們是最大的未裝核容量，所以他們在這裏有一係列很好的談話要點，他們也不再是否認氣候變化的國家在早期曾有過不少這樣的情況，但中國政府現在全力以赴，並將利用這一點作為其公共外交的一部分，對那些已經氣候變化的國家進行公共外交。感受到全球變暖的毀滅性影響，它將在全球秩序方麵與美國形成鮮明對比，我們在過去 24 小時內看到，烏克蘭的局勢可能會危險升級，隨後俄羅斯會發起猛烈攻擊拜登總統決定取消對從烏克蘭向俄羅斯發射遠程導彈的某些限製，現在普京簽署了一項新的核學說俄羅斯用核武器做出反應的能力的門檻 中國在這方麵處於什麽位置 她將介入其中 她將保持一定距離 中國會做什麽 中國將努力繼續左右逢源中立並聲稱自己是和平的提供者，而事實上，正如拜登政府所說，它是俄羅斯的重要推動者，呃，通過購買俄羅斯碳氫化合物並通過其出口無人機和備件，呃，你知道中國的加工商，所以中國不是中立的，但它能夠在全球範圍內再次很好地發揮中立方和潛在和平締造者的作用 南歐不買這個東北亞 北美不買賬相信這一點，但世界其他大部分國家都知道，中國是ALS，也明白核武器是美國與中國關係和大國競爭中日益重要的一部分。做了很多事情，我在中國的時候聽到了很多關於中國的不首先使用政策，而美國沒有不首先使用政策，這是有充分理由的，但那是出於一些原因。對於大多數人來說，首先說“不”是顯而易見的

China-US Relations: Challenges and Opportunities for the New Administration and Congress

WoodrowWilsonCenter 2024年11月22日
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5jyymxFrO5Y

Robert Daly, Director
Wilson Center's Kissinger Institute
https://www.wilsoncenter.org/contact-us
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One Woodrow Wilson Plaza
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China-US Relations: Challenges and Opportunities for the New Administration and Congress
WoodrowWilsonCenter 2024年11月22日
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5jyymxFrO5Y

In this edition of Wilson Center NOW, we are joined by Robert Daly, Director of the Wilson Center’s Kissinger Institute on China and the United States. He highlights his recent trip to China and discusses how Beijing is preparing for the second Trump administration by deepening ties with allies and Global South nations, boosting its internal tech sector, and bracing the economy for increased tariffs.
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A time of  Starring Actor of Beijingers in New York humanized Robert Daly as Chinese in human quality, human nature and human soul. 
But in the scope of politics, he is still in the mind of the west without see clear that democracy is granting power to the recklee ones whom no human brain no human nature and no human soul that can only inhuman play to ruin the life of world people.
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hello I'm John meski and this is Wilson Center now a production of the woodro Wilson International Center for Scholars my guest today is an old friend Robert
Daly director of the Wilson Center's Kissinger Institute on China and the United States and as he does joins us regularly to provide an update on the People's Republic of China and in this case Robert you just uh made a trip your first post-pandemic trip back to China spent what about three weeks there I was there for three weeks and then last week
I was with a Chinese high level delegation in Colorado talking about the relationship under the new Administration so how important is it for you to spend time in China to do
your work it's it's essential uh knowing getting close to knowing how people are really thinking how they see China how they see America how they're talking about uh is really my sole claim to a paycheck there are plenty of people in Washington who look at China through a telescope uh which is what I was doing during covid and then make very certain declarations about the place some of those declarations are correct uh but they tend to miss the texture the complexity of the place and the ways that the Chinese themselves are thinking we've had a tendency over the past decade to reduce our view of China to the Communist party and to reduce our view of the Communist party to Xi Jinping himself and so China studies becomes Xi Jinping studies now there are understandable reasons for that Co is one of them but also you know the increasingly absolute power of the Communist party and XI jinping's status within it he's the sole decision maker uh but if you think back to when we've had stronger presidents any foreign analyst would have been more than wrong to have seen America only as that President and what they said and did you here we know how much everything matters the everything matters in China as well and so you've got to be there what was you know I know that you you did this pre-election a couple Cycles ago uh speaking to her how can you compare the two was the interest higher in the US election what was the opinion about Donald Trump last time around they were trying him on for size for the first time right what can you tell us well a couple things first uh the negative narratives about the United states are much more deeply ensconced in China now than they were and I don't mean simple anti-americanism there is knee-jerk anti-americanism that comes from Chinese propaganda I mean anti-American narratives uh beliefs that are held by people who who think well and carefully about the United States the sense that the United States uh while still the world's most powerful nation is declining is fairly strong the sense that the United States is not interested in vast areas of the world that China is interested in an active in Africa Latin America southeast Asia central Asia that's very strong uh and even with uh the economic crisis that China is now in the midst of there's still a belief that China is rising as America weakens that is those are very deeply held views and that wasn't true the first time Donald Trump ran for president in 2016 as you noted I did it a long trip to China then was giving Chinese language lectures During the period spanning both the Democratic and the Republican national conventions simply talking about the system so interest in the Hillary Clinton Donald Trump uh competition was high then but not against this background of a belief in American decline so that's one of the big differences now the other is that they feel yes that they that they know Donald Trump they've been through this they will not be surprised they've been getting ready gaming it out uh they fully expect to get hit by a train or punched in the face or whatever the right analogy is you know on the first day of the administration you know with higher tariffs and a resuscitation of the trade war that they were not ready for the first time uh they're ready now they would still rather it didn't happen they're not going to like it but they're ready uh how has president shei grown in the role of a a a world leader you know I'm I'm you you mentioned the fact that China is interested in in parts of the globe or at least the Chinese perception is that they are that the US has forsaken or or been distracted from I'm reading from Newsweek here Robert Peru gave xiangping a warm welcome last week when he arrived for the asia-pacific economic cooperation Summit in Lima the Chinese leader was even accorded the honor of a state visit Joe Biden in contrast got a barebones greeting as Air Force One landed PR then proceeded to treat the American president as if he were a Backwater State even making sure the humili was seen in public for instance in the group photo of leaders
attending the summit she was standing in the place of honor to the right of the Peruvian president in the front row Biden was placed in the back in the corner America in uh what Americans sometimes call their backyard is being disrespected China on the other hand looks ascendant trading and investing its way into dominance of the region this is a commentary from Newsweek magazine how you know how does this all factor into she's desire to to be the major world leader so that that quote is largely true in its details uh it is China is not yet dominant in the region but they're moving and the trend line should be very concerning to us one of the reasons that Xi Jinping got so much such such a good reception was that the Peruvian Port of Chan opening up uh north of Lima a deep water Port uh which could host military vessels as well as container ships is opening up and that that was a Chinese built and will be a Chinese operated Port Xi Jinping is then going from Peru to Brazil uh and he's building up a very strong relationship there mostly based on trade but it's broader than trade uh this is a story not only of Chinese activity but also of American neglect uh China can bring so much uh wealth trade uh investment lending to these areas uh that it is going to be May well be ascendant if the
United States continues to deal with the region to deal with Africa as it has China has now explicitly said that it should be the leader of the global South now this is a little peculiar uh you know China is the world's second largest Nation so it's it's not clear that it is a part of the global South in any meaningful way but it has a tradition going back to the Bandung Conference of of seeing itself as aligned with the less veled or the developing world and they're now playing on that they are using what they claim is America's instigation of the wars in Ukraine and Gaza as part of that and they are making
progress uh it is uneven it is speeding up in the Middle East uh China is finding that its uh developmental State highly interested in technology under the leadership of the Communist party is actually a very good match for the theocracies of the Middle East which also want development education and Tech but under the hand of you know established parties they're only getting started in the Middle East and so we need to have a global view we have to have and I would argue that the first Trump administrations and in some ways the Biden Administration did not have uh a newly articulated convincing description of America's Global role that the American people could support that has been a challenge for at least eight years probably longer and it remains a big challenge I think as we go
into the new Trump Administration when when you look at the exit polls from the the just completed US presidential election uh immigration the economy number one and number two by a significant margin in the economy maybe specifically inflation uh in the background of that on the international scene of course Gaza Loom large particularly in Michigan and uh uh the ongoing conflict in Ukraine when you were speaking to people in China what are what what on their radar screen what would be their exit pole issues that are dominating the conversation in China it is I think the trade War you know how much worse is it going to get at a time when China is already somewhat hobbled for domestic reasons uh techn restrictions on technology transfer the export controls that we have put in place under the Biden Administration to limit China's development of advanced Computing uh and advanced chips is a big one and those are areas in which uh they are quite fearful they are preparing defenses they have been uh decoupling and drisking their economy as we have
been they have been trying to sanctions proof their economy they have been very successful in finding new markets and this is part of coming back to Latin America part of what that is about you know the United States and Europe might not buy China's electronic vehicles but they're relatively cheap in part because the companies that make them don't profit from them uh and therefore they can sell to Africa to Latin America to
southeast Asia and dominate those markets so they've been busy looking for alternate sources of supply and new markets for Chinese Goods uh in preparation for for a new trade War which is largely centered around technology they're more confident on the global order piece uh they know that the United States will once again not really be active in Africa or Latin America places where China is active they know that they are making gains uh within the Middle East and they are looking for opportunities to drive wedges between the United States and its partners because they understand that that Europe and partner American Partners in Northeast Asia are somewhat alarmed by the results of uh this election that they that these countries too American partners and allies worry about tariffs worry in South Korea and Japan about uh demands that they pay more for American uh soldiers military bases that that are in their countries so China's looking for that they're quite confident on on the global order front they have a coherent narrative a sense of the role they'd like to play in the world they can't always do it there are areas of non-self knowledge and incoherence here as well uh and I think they underestimate some of America's remaining strengths but they're not sure that these are strengths that the Trump Administration will value and so expect them to move even more aggressively on the global order front watch Xi Jinping will give a speech at Davos in January right before inauguration day as he did in 2017 presenting China as the upholder of the current order and the provider of stability I I want to Circle back to questions about the global order and and China's role but I first I want to touch on what you said about uh technology and the trade War uh potential trade Wars does China see opportunities in areas like whether be AI where there's been Fierce competition or uh uh climate related technological advances where China could claim to be the the climate Tech leader very shortly if Donald Trump his second Administration is anything like his first Administration as it relates to climate well it it already claims to be the leader of the global green economy with with considerable justification uh even though China Remains the world's biggest emitter of greenhouse gases that is true and will continue to be true for a long time but they're also you know for installed uh wind and solar capacity Pro for provision of solar panels to the world that's actually that market is is falling off for now but it may be back lithium batteries electronic vehicles uh China is already leading the world and it is making that a part of its diplomacy especially in what we now call the global South in in the developing world that's become it works for China not only economically but it works for them diplomatically as a provider of global public goods uh and so even though as I say they Remain the world's biggest polluter uh and they're still burning a lot of coal and building coal power plants they're the number one uninstalled nuclear capacity so they have a pretty good series of talking points here and they are also no longer climate change deniers there had been quite a bit of that in China uh in the early days but the Chinese government is now all in and it will use that as part of its public diplomacy in countries that are already feeling devastating impacts of global warming and it will be contrasting itself with the United States in on the global order front uh we've seen in the last 24 hours what could be a dangerous escalation in Ukraine with uh the a fierce attack from Russia followed up by President Biden deciding that he will lift certain restrictions on the use of long range missiles fired from from Ukraine toward Russia and now Putin has signed a new nuclear Doctrine lowering the bar for Russia's ability to respond with nuclear weapons where is China on this is she going to insert himself into this is he going to keep this at arms length what will China do China will try to continue to have it both ways to claim to be
neutral and to claim to be a provider of Peace while in fact it is as the Biden
Administration has said an essential enabler of Russia uh through its purchases of
Russian hydrocarbons and through its exports of drones and spare parts and uh
you know processors to China so China is not neutral but it is able to play part
of a neutral party and potential Peacemaker fairly well again in the global South Europe doesn't buy this northeast Asia North America doesn't buy it but much of the rest of the world does China is ALS also understands that uh nuclear weapons are a growing part of us China relations and of great power competition it makes a great deal and I heard a lot about this when I was in China uh just recently about China's no first use policy and the United States does not have a no first use policy uh for good reasons but that re
for reasons that aren't immediately obvious to most people saying no first
use policy seems like it would be sort
of the default moral position America
because of its extended deterrence and
other policies feels that it can't have
a no first use policy and so China as
the danger of you know nuclear weapons
use especially in Ukraine goes up is
using that as one of its major talking
points in public diplomacy around the
world so uh any involvement on the
Middle East as far as the conflict will
will she attempt to be a peacemaker or
will he again try to have it both ways
as you put it CH China is having it both
ways when China within China tells the
story of what's happening in the Middle
East they tend to begin either with
pictures of uh victims of the war in
Gaza civilians or with footage of
American uh aircraft carriers steaming
toward uh the Eastern Mediterranean and
their claim is that as in Ukraine uh
this war comes about as a result of
American hegemony and so they they are
hitting uh very us very hard with that
uh and using the tying that to their
lending through belon road to get
support for their position and votes in
the United Nations for example but they
don't get close enough they don't pay
any cost or take any risks such that if
and when there are peace talks they will
want to sweep in and play a major role
in that and if and when there is a
rebuild of Ukraine or Gaza they're going
to be very interested to bring their you
know World beating capacity in concrete
in steel and aluminum to these projects
and to wear the hero hat there but they
were remain you know they retain that
distance and they're not a player in the
week to week month-to-month
diplomacy in the Middle East in part
because that's very very risky and they
don't want to take those risks yeah
lining up a lot of style points that
they may be able to cash in later that's
what it say and and and that can work
yeah you know they are building up while
working in some ways within the existing
order and talking a lot about the
importance of the United Nations as the
center of a world order the United
Nations not the United States they are
also trying to set up alternate orders
alternate mechanisms that will give
options to countries which like China
Russia Iran and a growing number of
countries throughout the world don't
want their choices shaped as they see it
by the United States and its allies so
but they're they're doing that in a way
that is is sort of non-committal all
things to all people and talking a big
game on piece so uh a final area I want
to ask you about Robert for this
discussion of course we'll have others
because as you've reminded us this is
not a short-term story right this is
going to go on for
decades or it no Beginnings or endings
it's a Continuum right but this is where
we are today and that area is a
potential hot spot of Taiwan and uh
breaking news in the last 24 hours about
Pro democracy 45 Pro democracy Le
sentenced to as much as 10 years for
their participation in an non-official
primary some months ago uh in Hong Kong
in Hong Kong right where where does the
where do we stand on on Taiwan uh and
China and the US so the you know
regarding the these new convictions in
Hong Kong these will only you know
strengthen uh Taiwanese opposition to
the offer that Beijing makes which is
one country two systems that's the
country it makes to Taiwan that is the
offer it made to Hong Kong uh that now
has no purchase in Taiwan even among uh
the more moderate K dong party there is
some anxiety in Taiwan uh as we head
into the new Administration on a couple
of fronts one is that President Trump
has said that China the Taiwanese
company tsmc Taiwan semiconductor which
is the world's leading practically only
maker of Leading Edge chips president
Trump has said that uh tsmc stole that
industry from the United States um which
is isn't true but which they see as a
Potential Threat there is also concern
that while there are many Fierce
Defenders of uh Taiwan uh and its its
ongoing deao Independence in the
Republican party and even in the new
Trump Administration the president himself
isn't necessarily among them and this
was true in the first Trump Administration as well that he the
president was often put the brakes on
some more hawkish members of his administration that wanted to go further
in drawing closer to Taiwan and creating distance from from uh Beijing Trump
would say no you know the game is actually China you know in dollar terms certainly
in ow terms not Taiwan now that attitude of President Trump's has both encouraging and and somewhat worrisome Trends depending on how things break
down I he's he's not going to agitate on
Taiwan uh but Taiwan is also not sure
that he won't make a deal that includes
some diminishment of American support
for them and so this remains a big question mark um and this is a question
about the administration generally when
you have sort of a Maga somewhat
isolationist America First impulse from
the president but you have a Republican
party and many strong supporters within
that party of the president who remain
American Prim assists who want America
to be the most important country in
maintaining a global order that is an
evolution of the one we set up on after
World War II how do those two different
instincts play out and and Robert where
do you place uh president-elect Trump's
nominee for Secretary of State Marco
Rubio in that equation he's been a very
vocal China critic yes but he's also an
American Primacy and I think and a
believer in a strong American global
role there's no contradiction between
being a strong you know critic of China
and being a Primacy the question is will
there be a contradiction between being a
Primacy which means cherishing and
building alliances providing Global public goods exercising Global Leadership sometimes at a cost to America is there going to be any friction between that branch of American foreign policy and the Republican party and what the president wants to do and we don't know the answer to that yet well uh as the answers emerge we'll talk about it again Rob Bert as always thank you thank you we hope you enjoyed this edition of Wilson Center now and that
you'll join us again soon until then for all of us at the center I'm John meski thank you for your time and your interest.