John Mearsheimer 對富裕國家 必須殺戮

印度富了可能成為最強大國家?! 改變中美俄關係?!【國際360】20240730??

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=V69qnTK-s3s

YouTube 2024年7月30日

John Mearsheimer and Peter Varghese speak at the Centre for Independent Studies on In Depth Q&A: Mearsheimer and Varghese disagree on US Grand Strategy, Ukraine, Russia and China.

完整影片來源 The Centre for Independent Studies ?@CISAus? Video source: The Centre for Independent Studies ?@CISAus?

非常感謝今晚的活動，非常精彩，我隻是想聽聽你的看法，約翰，你經常談論人口數量之類的事情，彼得，這也是為你準備的，印度如何開始改變力量平衡，預計其人口將超過中國，其經濟增長強勁，你知道這會如何改變，你知道你談到了美國、中國、俄羅斯的秩序，印度如何開始改變這一點，然後如果亞洲是主要焦點，印度的崛起將如何改變該地區的力量平衡，非常感謝.

約翰·米爾斯海默

權力的兩個主要根源是人口規模和財富，如果你看看中國，中國一直擁有龐大的人口規模，但我們在冷戰期間並不認為中國是一個大國，記得當時是一個兩極體係，美國和蘇聯，而不是中國，我們在單極時代並不認為中國是一個大國。我們現在認為中國是一個大國，發生了什麽，人口規模基本保持不變，變化的是中國變得富裕了。

這又回到了關於印度尼西亞的問題，印度尼西亞不是一個富裕的國家，不像今天的中國或美國那樣，如果印度尼西亞突然變成了一個新的中國，變得非常富裕，澳大利亞人會非常擔心印度尼西亞，因為根據我的計算，每個澳大利亞人對應大約 10 個印度尼西亞人，甚至更多，他們就在隔壁，但他們並不富裕，這對你有好處，這就是為什麽當中國不富裕時，這對我們有好處，但我們幫助它富裕起來，這又回到了印度，印度還不夠富裕，不足以成為一個大國，如果它真的變得富裕，擁有那樣的人口規模，哦，天哪，它可能是地球上最強大的國家。

thanks so much for tonight's event it's
been fantastic I just wanted to get your
perspective John you talk so much about
population numbers and things like that
and Peter this will be for you as well
how does India start to change the
balance of power its population is
projected to be larger than China its
economic growth is you know strong how
will that change you know you spoke
about that order United States China
Russia how does India begin to change
that and then if Asia is the primary
focus how does India's emergence change
that balance of power in that area
thanks so much 
<<<<<>>>>>>
John Mearsheimer
the two principal tap roots of Power are
population size and wealth and if you
look at China China has always had a
huge population size but we did not
consider China a great power during the
Cold War remember it was a bipolar
system the United States and the Soviet
Union not China we did not consider
China a great power during the unipolar
moment there was only one great power
the United States we now consider China
a great power what happened the
population size remained basically
constant what changed was China became
wealthy this gets back to the question
about Indonesia Indonesia is not a
wealthy country the way that China is
today or the way that the United States
is if Indonesia all of a sudden turns
into uh a new China and it gets very
wealthy you are Australians will worry
greatly about Indonesia cuz according to
my calculations there are about 10
Indonesians for every Australian more if
not more and they're right next door but
they're not wealthy and that's good for
you right and that's why it was good for
us when China was not wealthy but we
helped make it wealthy and this gets
back to India just very quickly India is
not wealthy enough to to to qualify as a
great power if it does get wealthy with
that population size oh boy it'll
probably be the most powerful State on
the planet