風蕭蕭_Frank
以文會友
世界上隻有一個國家熱衷於對他國指指點點
近日，美國智庫亞洲協會舉辦了一場名為“美國、中國和全球秩序的未來”研討會，邀請新加坡前常駐聯合國代表、著名學者馬凱碩（Kishore Mahbubani），同協會副會長兼美中關係中心主任夏偉（Orville Schell）圍繞上述問題同台舌戰。俗話說，真理越辯越明，不妨看看他們誰占理。
▲ 2024年3月，新加坡知名學者、資深外交官馬凱碩在紐約亞洲協會與美國學者夏偉就中美關係與世界秩序展開激烈討論。
一、中國變了嗎？
夏偉稱，中國發展成就令人驚歎，但隨著國力增強，共產黨領導下的中國“徹底變了”。當前，中國強勢強硬，通過大搞“戰狼外交”同各國敵對，在全球推行“威權主義”。美國對此十分擔憂，不知該如何看待變化了的中國及其戰略目標。
馬凱碩指出，所謂“中國變了”“戰狼外交”等說辭，純屬盎撒媒體的偏見和炒作。占全球人口88%的非西方世界有著完全不同的“中國觀”。
研討會現場，馬凱碩提及，占全球人口88%的非西方世界有著完全不同的“中國觀”。
我們見證了中華文明4000年的興衰發展，清楚中國複興是非常自然的曆史回歸。凡是見過中國領導人的人都予以高度評價，認為他是一位智慧理性、冷靜清醒、通情達理的大國領袖，正在帶領中國人民團結奮鬥，努力實現中華民族偉大複興。我認為這就是中國的戰略目標。
中國追求的民族複興是要讓中國人民過上好日子，而不是折騰全球，更不是對外輸出意識形態。坦率地說，世界上隻有一個國家熱衷於對他國內部政治製度指指點點，那就是美國。（全場觀眾聞聲大笑。）
現場有觀眾提問“特朗普2.0”可能給美國帶來何種變化。夏偉及研討會美方主持人對此表態十分拘謹，僅強調“特朗普2.0”隻是一個假設性問題。
馬凱碩則坦陳，多數國家希望拜登勝選，因為他更可預測。如果特朗普再次當選，世界將麵臨更大挑戰。事實上，如果美國將更多精力投入國內事務，改善底層民眾生活質量，美國民眾就不會投票給特朗普。（夏偉默然點頭。）
2023年，美國無家可歸者人數大幅上升，包括芝加哥、邁阿密、波士頓和菲尼克斯等大多數主要城市都出現了增長。
二、中美隻能對抗嗎？
夏偉稱，如今美國戰略界很多人認為，由於中國的改變，美國對華數十年的“接觸”政策已經失敗，美中正走向競爭與對抗。特別是在台灣問題上，中國正加速“武統”，美國不能置之不理。“今日烏克蘭，明日台灣”是美國及世界必須正視的重大現實威脅。
2024年2月，美國駐華大使伯恩斯接受美國媒體采訪時表示，美國不想生活在被中國主導的世界裏。
馬凱碩表示，要理解當前的中美關係，首先要看清三大全球變化：一是世界經濟重心正在轉移到亞洲，21世紀迎來“亞洲世紀”。二是美國冷戰後獨享的單極世界已經結束，我們正走向一個新的兩極或多極世界，美國必須適應其他國家不會輕易屈服的現實。三是許多曆史悠久的文明加速複興，過去200年西方文明主導的世界正走入多元文明共存的新紀元。美國以“競爭”重新定義對華關係，實質就是為了應對三大全球變化，防範自身霸權被取代。
但外界不清楚美國對華新戰略目標是什麽。是要阻止中國經濟增長嗎？這做不到。是要複製對蘇聯的冷戰來遏製中國嗎？這也做不到。美國必須認識到，中國的崛起不取決於美國或是世界其他國家，而是由14億多中國人民推動的，是不可阻擋的。
研討會現場，馬凱碩直言，他對一些“盎格魯-撒克遜媒體”對中國的誤判不買賬。
不要低估美國，也不要低估中國。要尊重強大的美國，也要尊重強大的中國。當前，世界其他國家對美中之間缺乏戰略互信深感擔憂。
希望美國能少一些對華“接觸”或是“對抗”的爭論，認識到必須要與一個強大中國“共存”的現實。國際社會190多個國家同舟共濟，在一艘船上搞內訌或是搞孤立是不明智的。
美國應該為美中競爭按下“暫停鍵”，同中國合作應對氣候變化、大流行病等全球性挑戰。這符合美國的國家利益，也符合全球的共同利益。
台灣問題是唯一可能導致美中爆發直接衝突的問題。這是中國近代屈辱史遺留的最後一道傷痕，國家統一寄托著中國人民強烈的民族感情，美方一定要明白台灣問題的重要性和敏感性。
2023年4月10日，東部戰區圓滿完成環台島戰備警巡和“聯合利劍”演習。這是演練前夜參演火箭軍某部在進行轉載導彈訓練。
2003年陳水扁搞“入聯公投”謀求“台獨”時，布什政府曾明確表態反對。如果美國能繼續保持這種立場，台海就不會發生戰爭。
三、中國在製造世界動蕩嗎？
夏偉稱，中國正在以令人不安的方式擴大全球影響，在南海、中印邊境等問題上製造動蕩，同日、韓、菲、越等周邊國家分歧激化，給周邊和世界帶來不穩定因素。東南亞許多國家親美厭中但“不願明說”。美國不會逼迫各國公開選邊站隊，但全球南方和東南亞國家一定要對中國的意圖保持清醒認識。
馬凱碩表示，全球南方國家很清楚，世界上不存在什麽“仁慈大國”，每個國家都在追求自身利益。世界大多數發展中國家對華貿易額遠高於對美貿易額，全球南方為什麽要放棄同中國保持良好關係，放棄從對華貿易中獲取巨額利益呢？絕大多數國家很高興看到一個強大的美國和一個強大的中國在某種程度上取得平衡，希望同美中都保持良好的關係，不會選邊站隊。
2024年1月22日，江蘇南通的糧油接運碼頭正在卸運進口巴西玉米。
東南亞有兩倍於美國的人口和世界上最複雜的種族結構，但總體能夠保持地區長期和平穩定，正是因為地區國家善於靈活應對複雜地緣政治，懂得如何與美國和中國同時保持良好關係。
▲ 2024年3月7日，馬來西亞總理安瓦爾在澳大利亞國立大學發表演講，表示對中國而言，采取阻礙中國在軍事、經濟和技術方麵崛起的措施無異於試圖否認其在曆史上應有的地位。
菲律賓曆屆政府在美中之間形成了某種搖擺式平衡；印尼既是美國的朋友，也是中國的朋友；越南朋友告訴我，既不對中國示弱，又善於同中國合作，正是該國與中國共處千年的智慧。關於南海問題，不能隻看一時“快照”，而要看長遠圖景。美國不是當事方，形勢沒有炒作的那麽嚴重，事實上當事各方能夠總體保持克製。
“如果你想進入一個世界，不同文化和文明和平相處，可以到東盟來，到東南亞來。不要對這個地區表現出居高臨下的優越感。東南亞已經做到了非凡的事情，可資世界借鑒的經驗之一就是如何避免戰爭。”（馬凱碩話音未落，全場掌聲響起。）
馬凱碩最後總結說，世界應接受中國複興的現實，與中美兩國同時保持良好關係；也希望中美能妥處分歧，攜手共同應對全人類麵臨的重大難題。
中國的崛起不取決於美國或是世界其他國家，而是由14億多中國人民推動的，是不可阻擋的。
活動現場座無虛席，以紐約各界精英和各國外交官為主的觀眾多次為馬凱碩發言鼓掌。辯論全程視頻上傳網絡後，評論幾乎一邊倒讚同馬凱碩，支持中美和平共處而非競爭對抗，認為夏偉等人固執反華的看法對中美兩國乃至世界不利。你怎麽看？
The United States, China, and the Future of the Global Order with Kishore Mahbubani and Orville Schell
NEW YORK, March 21, 2024 — Asia Society Policy Institute, in partnership with Perry World House at the University of Pennsylvania, hosts a discussion on the U.S.-China relationship and how it impacts global trends. Speakers include Kishore Mahbubani, 2023-24 Schlager visiting fellow at the University of Pennsylvania's Perry World House; and Orville Schell, Arthur Ross director of the Asia Society’s Center on U.S.-China Relations. Rorry Daniels, managing director of Asia Society Policy Institute, moderates the conversation.
Asia Inside Out brings together our team and special guests to take you beyond the latest policy headlines and provide an insider’s view on regional and global affairs. Each month we’ll deliver an interview with informed experts, analysts, and decision-makers from across the Asia-Pacific region. If you want to dig into the details of how policy works, this is the podcast for you.
This podcast is produced by the Asia Society Policy Institute, a “think-and-do tank” working on the cutting edge of current policy trends by incorporating the best ideas from our experts and contributors into recommendations for policy makers to put these plans into practice.
The United States, China, and the Future of the Global Order
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PIfb7BUiqHY&ab_channel=
Asia Society 2024年3月22日
Kishore Mahbubani:
美國的目的是要阻止中國的經濟增長嗎？
做不到
美國的目的是要腿法中國共產黨執政嗎？
這也做不到
美國的目的是要像當年遏製蘇聯沒那樣遏製中國嗎
這還是做不到
既然這些都做不到，那麽全世界都要問美國一個簡單的問題，美國與中國戰略競爭的終極目標究竟是什麽？
<<<<<<>>>>>>
主持人：
大家晚上好，歡迎光臨，我很高興今晚能在這裏主持會議
0:06
我們確信，這將是一場關於中美競爭、未來和世界未來的熱烈討論。
0:12
全球秩序，正如 H 所說，我是 RI Daniels，我是亞洲協會政策研究所的常務董事
0:20
我把談話轉給科雷和奧維爾，聽聽他們的想法
0:25
關於我們在中國的競爭的初步想法我確實想談談我們現在的處境，所以在
0:33
最後讓我們說25年來美國中國發生了很多變化
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部分原因是這些國家在 25 年來發生了巨大變化
0:44
嗯隨著中國進入世界經濟全球化的進程
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那種引擎向前轉動的速度要快得多，嗯，有
0:56
亞洲的力量平衡確實發生了轉變，而且也發生了變化。
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該過程創造了許多新的機遇和挑戰
1:10
經濟一體化以及我們所有人都麵臨的技術革命
1:15
他們的經曆確實改變了這兩個國家看待彼此的方式以及他們在世界上的地位
1:22
我們現在正處於美中關係已經脫離正常狀態的時期
1:28
在喬治·布什 2 統治下相對合作的基礎
1:33
奧巴馬政府外交進程中的戰略與經濟對話
1:40
雙邊關係確實麵臨一係列新的刺激和挑戰
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關係，其中一些挑戰與你知道隨著中國的崛起而改變的中國體係有關
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經濟價值鏈並開始優先考慮批發之上的事情
1:59
經濟增長的一些轉變與我們對全球化的反應以及全球化的指責有關。
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人們對中國的看法是正確還是錯誤，因為它在你知道的方麵的作用可能正在減弱
2:13
美國在世界上的競爭力 經濟競爭力 嗯但是
2:18
不管怎樣，無論你如何看待這種情況，毫無疑問，這種關係現在被視為一種不屬於一種關係的關係。
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合作共存或外交優先，但實際上是戰略競爭
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在某些情況下，戰略競爭因此考慮到這一背景我
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想從吳開始，然後轉向奧維爾做一些開場白，嗯什麽
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從您的角度來看，美國和中國正在競爭，為什麽會產生什麽樣的結果
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您認為這兩個國家希望實現其在世界上的作用以及其在世界範圍內的作用嗎？
2:58
彼此的關係就交給你了
基肖爾·馬凱碩：
謝謝羅裏，首先讓我開始
3:03
感謝哈米德和你歡迎我回到亞洲協會，我確實覺得
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就像這幾乎是我的第二個家，因為我第一次來到亞洲協會是在 40 年前的 1984 年，當時我還是第一次
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任命新加坡駐聯合國大使，我過去常常來這裏，所以回到這裏就像回來一樣
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回家，我也很高興成為佩裏井院的研究員呃代表
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也在這個呃討論中，所以嗯
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回答你的問題 羅裏呃 我想你可以先回答關於我們中國走向的具體問題
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重要的是要強調我們正在處理這個問題
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在一個非常不同的全球背景下，我們必須理解這一點
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如果你想了解推動美國發展的動力，那麽困難的不同 Glo Global 背景
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中國呃關係和世界至少在三個基本方麵發生了變化，首先是
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坦率地說，21世紀美國與中國的競爭將主要集中在亞洲
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現在，當我說這將是亞洲世紀時，我的意思是什麽？這意味著經濟力量的轉移
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將轉移到亞洲，最大的經濟體將在亞洲，隻是為了
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說明這一點呃在 20 世紀 60 年代不久前就進入了前五名
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經濟體為零 亞洲為零 今天三個是前五名
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亞洲，正如你所知，未來的增長將來自亞洲，所以
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這是一個重大轉變，呃，第二個在地緣政治方麵正在發生，顯然我們正在采取行動
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從單極世界到至少兩極世界，我想說的是
4:58
這實際上是多極海洋中的兩極世界，因為許多新的其他新力量正在出現
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變得更加積極主動，因此美國在冷戰結束時享有的單極時刻正在
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消失了，但很多人還沒有適應它消失了的事實，而你
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現在必須生活在一個必須與純粹權力和其他不具備這些權力的重要權力抗衡的世界
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必然會如此輕易地屈從於大國的意願，因此我們擁有一個更加複雜的世界
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處理第三點也是同樣重要的一點
文化
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在維度上，我們也看到了一些根本性的轉變，我們所擁有的世界在某種意義上正在發生：
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過去200年來一直由一種文明西方文明統治
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如果你在 19 呃 24 坐在這裏，你知道，西方國家在 100 年前就殖民了整個地區
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韋斯特毫不費力地跑遍了整個世界，現在你有一個
6:08
多閥多明正在重新崛起並恢複實力，所以即使在
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文化方麵，這是一個不同的世界 所以在這個更大的全球背景下，我們也看到了美國 中國
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那麽為什麽會發生這種情況呢？原因很簡單，就是曼聯
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各國正在做的事情正是任何第一大國看到這一情況時都會做的事情
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競爭對手的出現，確保競爭對手不會超越它，從而將其壓低
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這就是所有大國所做的，所以美國所做的不是
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令人驚訝的是它是可預測的，如果你輸入 X 或 Y，這正是
6:52
發生這種情況是因為美國已經習慣了成為第一，它不希望看到這個地方被另一個大國搶走，但在
6:58
同時這是可以預見和預期的
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世界其他地方顯然正在觀看這場比賽並且對此非常擔心，但不清楚的是
7:10
爭論美國的主要戰略目標到底是什麽？
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你知道這場比賽，坦率地說，正如我在我的書中所說，中國有一個
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當我寫書時，我從亨利·基辛格的一對一談話中得到了關於中國獲勝並擊中目標的見解。
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您在講話中也在某種程度上提到了這一點，例如美國的目標是阻止
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中國的經濟增長也許這就是為什麽會有貿易關稅、芯片製裁等等。
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目標無法完成還是推翻中共的目標
7:55
再次聚會我稍後會解釋可以
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已經完成了，還是目標是像美國對蘇聯所做的那樣
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它有效地將其限製在一個小宇宙中並使其脫離
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再次從世界其他地方發送，正如我稍後將解釋的那樣，這是不可能的，所以在結束時
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那天世界要問的是美國到底想要什麽
8:26
在這場比賽中取得的成績以及最終的比賽是什麽
主持人：
好的，太棒了，您已經提出了很多內容供我們回來討論，包括嗯根本性的變化
8:39
多極體係的崛起 亞洲的經濟實力和活力
8:45
我認為這是一個非常有趣的新文化，我們應該回過頭來討論，但也提出了很多問題
8:51
關於我們的戰略目標，奧裏爾能否告訴我們您的觀點是什麽？
8:57
美國和中國在競爭，為什麽你知道美國希望借此達到什麽目的以及結局是什麽
9:03
說明我們正在尋找
奧維爾·謝爾：
嗯，總是很高興
9:08
與科雷交談，因為它立即讓我以我不曾想到的方式思考
9:14
通常我必須想到嗯之後我想到的第一個想法
9:20
聽到你的言論就是這個你問美國新戰略是什麽呃
9:28
1972年後我想我們可以訂婚了我想問你怎麽辦
9:35
認為中國的戰略就是他們所追求的，因為實際上這是一場舞蹈
9:42
在兩個夥伴之間，這不僅僅取決於美國，因為我相信你會同意，所以你認為中國是什麽
9:49
之後，如果我可以問你一個問題，什麽是強大的力量
9:56
假裝采用狼武士外交對抗我是說誰
10:02
對抗加拿大 瑞典 挪威 澳大利亞 印度 I
10:10
意思是我可以繼續說下去，為什麽這裏發生了什麽事？
10:16
任何人的優勢都少得多
10:23
中國
基肖爾·馬凱碩：
我我我我我我我期待著開場白
10:30
哦，請原諒我，我以為你會有大約七分鍾的準備時間
10:35
評論給我一些思考，但我我非常我很高興o回答呃你的
10:41
問題，如果你不介意再次請原諒我這樣做呃當你
10:47
談論我們的世界以及世界如何看待中國
10:55
目標和策略是我希望你們牢記的一個非常重要的
11:00
據統計，世界上12%的人口生活在西方
11:06
世界上 88% 的人口生活在西方以外，讓我非常強調一點
11:13
從一開始就明確且非常大膽地表明 12% 的人認為中國不是
11:21
88％的人如何看待中國，例如，呃，當你問什麽是
11:28
中國正在嚐試ACC Lish，如果你願意的話，我是否可以與你分享我從與我的談話中得到的信息
11:35
亞洲同胞、非洲同胞和拉丁美洲同胞看到中國正在努力
11:43
以堅強的姿態再次回歸
11:48
它曾經是文明，你知道中國是他更了解的
11:54
比我更重要的是，他是中國專家，我是，順便說一句，我不是中國專家，讓我強調一下，有一次我立即
12:01
我是中國觀察員呃，當然我們必須是中國觀察員，因為在東南部
12:07
眾所周知，亞洲在地理上對我們影響最大的力量顯然是中國
12:14
就像拉丁美洲將生活在美國的陰影下一樣，東南亞也必須生活在其中
12:21
實際上是中國、印度和我自己的影子，所以強調我們的
12:26
和其他非洲人的觀點是，我們已經看到這個文明已經有 4000 年了上升、下降、上升、下降
12:35
因此，中國的回歸隻是4000年漫長王朝曆史的一部分
12:42
循環往複，當中華文明衰落時，就會衰落得非常非常嚴重
12:47
我認為奧勒比我們任何人都清楚他們經曆了本世紀最糟糕的世紀之一
12:53
從1842年到1949年的屈辱，但這對中華文明來說並不正常
12:59
表現不佳這麽長時間，他們在一段時間後回來是更正常的，所以我們從
13:06
比方說，亞洲是一個文明的回歸，我們幾個世紀以來一直見證著這個文明的起起落落，所以這是一個
13:13
現在自然回歸，所以當中國試圖在世界上占據一席之地時
13:18
現在你提到的事情，大國是一個完全自然的發展
13:24
呃，你用了狼戰士外交這樣的詞，有趣的是
13:30
而“狼武士外交”這個詞在盎格魯-撒克遜人中經常使用
13:35
媒體，正如你所知，盎格魯撒克遜媒體讓我們非常直率地表達對中國和美國的偏見。
13:41
世界其他地區對盎格魯撒克遜媒體對中國的評價不以為然
13:48
世界其他國家所做的就是看看中國做了什麽，然後再處理
13:54
有了它，最終你會發現各個國家都有一個
14:02
他們想與中國進行貿易還是不想與中國進行貿易的選擇
14:09
中國，如果你看看中國的事跡，今天中國與其他國家的貿易要多得多
14:15
世界上比美國更重要的是，我們也確實希望與美國進行貿易，但正如你所知，貿易
14:22
是一項自願活動，但它對這樣做的國家有利，所以你可以選擇像巴西這樣的國家，這是一個非常多的國家
14:29
與美國的距離比20年前與中國的距離還要近
14:34
巴西今天需要一年時間才能向中國出口10億美元
14:41
巴西60小時內向中國出口10億美元 為什麽巴西不應該
14:49
與中國有正常的貿易關係，所以你可以明白這一點
14:54
我想告訴你的是，如果你看看南半球的許多國家，你會發現並非所有國家都如此。
15:01
南半球國家很高興與中國建立正常關係，並且沒有遇到任何困難
15:08
正如我所說，困難主要發生在聯合國之間
15:13
國家和中國出於可以理解的原因，這也不是這樣
15:19
當你有很大的權力轉移時就會發生，我實際上認為在某些情況下
15:24
正如美國對中國的所作所為是可以預見的，中國對美國的反應也是如此
15:31
也是可以預見的
主持人：
當然，我們現在生活在一個真正相互聯係的世界，正確的
15:38
正是這種關於偉大興衰的敘述
15:44
大國最終會以不同的方式產生反響，各國都非常樂意與中國進行貿易，我將轉向
15:50
奧維爾一會兒談談他的想法，你知道美國如何看待中國的行為，但從我的角度來看，我是這樣認為的
15:56
不認為美國嗯想傷害阻礙損害中國的合法貿易
16:03
與世界各國進行貿易往來，但與此同時，這些國家與中國的貿易也在增加，他們也在尋求越來越大的利益
16:09
來自美國的安全援助 奧維爾，你能詳細解釋一下嗎？有哪些擔憂？
16:16
中國崛起時的行為正在引發這種需求信號
16:22
更多西方國家的關注，也許包括一些經濟方麵的關注
16:27
正如您提到的加拿大的活動，您如何看待中國在這個體係中的崛起以及
16:37
其對全球發展的潛在影響
奧維爾·謝爾：
我想你知道
16:45
嗯，吳，我同意你的觀點，是的，中國完全有權利成為一個偉大的國家
16:51
力量，實際上他們已經取得了驚人的發展呃呃成功
16:57
我了解大國從來不喜歡被廢黜和取代
17:03
其他人，但我認為在你的論點中，我想問你的是中國
17:10
不僅僅是另一個大國，它是習近平領導下的馬克思列寧主義政權
17:17
1989 年北京大屠殺之後，ping 已經變得與我們在 80 年代甚至 90 年代經曆的非常非常不同
25
和示威，我認為如果不考慮這一因素
17:32
我們不能隻是說中國想成為一個大國想要貿易
17:38
每個人都想與它進行貿易，因為這個等式中還有另一個因素，即中國作為一個國家所追求的是什麽
17:47
世界上新型的技術專製以及其他國家是否感受到
17:53
對此感到滿意，現在我們在樓上談論菲律賓，我看菲律賓
18:00
非常仔細，因為我認為這是一種 RoR 量表，我的意思是
18:05
東南亞很公平 新加坡夾在中間不想選擇馬來西亞 我明白但是呃
18:15
我認為我們可能正在接近這樣一個地步：即使不是不可能，至少也會更加困難。
18:22
中間，我認為我們在菲律賓看到了這種認識的閃爍
18:27
現在承認世界總是在變化，所以我很好奇你如何看待這個世界
18:34
中國的內部政治轉變正在回歸一種更加呃的狀態
18:41
Maest 模式並不完全如此，其他國家的舒適度如何
18:47
如果不是在世界上，你願意接受中國在亞洲的霸權嗎？
18:53
對此感到滿意，我的意思是新加坡是一個小國家，你怎麽樣
18:59
感覺是的，您想繼續交易，但我認為您還必須考慮其他因素
19:07
考慮周全
基肖爾·馬凱碩：
首先，如果您不介意的話，請讓我快速評論一下您提出的觀點
19:12
羅裏呃，當你提到呃國家也在向美國靠攏時呃你是絕對正確的
19:20
呃，我想強調的是，為了避免任何誤解，全球都存在巨大的商譽儲備
19:26
對於美國和世界來說，其實很高興看到一個強大的美國和一個強大的中國
19:33
在某種程度上，如果它們相互平衡，這對於整個世界來說並不是太糟糕，所以這並不是說
19:39
世界正在爭先恐後地擁抱中國，告別美國，這不是世界，而是世界上大多數國家
19:45
正如您自己所說，石油公司希望與美國和中國建立良好的關係，呃現在在您的國家
19:53
在你關於呃內部呃政治的觀點中
19:59
中國的構成，中國不是變得更加馬克思列寧主義或共產主義了嗎？
20:05
我們擔心這一點嗎？我想在這裏我想強調的是
20:10
世界上隻有一個國家呃對內部做出判斷
20:16
其他國家的政治製度，這是一個非常特殊的國家，我想你們都知道
20:23
美國例外論 我可以告訴你，你知道聯合國離這裏並不太遠，隻要一兩英裏，如果你
20:31
走進聯合國你會發現最呃神聖的地方之一
20:37
《聯合國憲章》的原則實際上是聯合國非常堅決地堅持的
20:45
聯合國成員國的原則是我們不會幹涉彼此的內部事務
20:51
《聯合國憲章》所載的事務以及該原則被采用
20:56
大多數國家在相互打交道時的態度是，世界上大多數國家的態度是你選擇你的形式
21:02
政府 無論你選擇什麽，我們都會與政府打交道
21:07
權力，因此中國是否更馬克思主義或更少馬克思主義或民主或
21:13
不民主，我們可以選擇，但我們無法選擇，最終取決於中國人選擇什麽樣的政府
21:19
他們有，但我確實認為我是否可以或願意推動一點呃
21:25
回到你身上，你知道美國第一次陷入困境是什麽時候
21:34
1971年愛中國請問誰是領導人
21:44
那時的中國是maong，你會稱maong為偉大嗎？
21:52
人權捍衛者 你會說他是 這是
21:58
具有自由思想的人 具有自由精神的人 你可以認識的人 培養
22:05
與你有親屬關係，知道我的意思，所以當談到
22:12
地緣政治是一種非常殘酷的商業意識形態，當
22:21
必要時可以帶到 for，甚至在今天，如果你說
22:29
美國會站出來，站出來支持共產黨
22:36
政權為什麽要培育越南什麽是
22:43
我的意思是，越南不是也有共產黨執政嗎？所以我這麽說隻是因為
22:52
世界其他地方 當我說世界其他地方已經改變時 他們已經變得很多
22:59
更複雜的是，他們看透了這一切，他們看到，是的，有一個嚴重的問題
23:05
美國和中國之間正在進行的地緣政治競爭非常激烈
23:10
擔心這一點，他們想與雙方保持良好的關係，他們不會做出判斷，這不僅僅是為了公平或
23:18
不隻是新加坡 我可以 如果你想要 100 個國家的名單 我可以給你
23:23
我可以給你列出 100 個國家
在那個位置
主持人：
我們可以談談嗎
23:30
各國正在如何應對這一願望，而不是做出這樣的選擇
23:36
從您的角度來看，哪些因素正在縮小國家的選擇範圍並做出選擇
23:42
當大多數國家顯然不想選擇時，美國和中國之間的選擇
23:48
或者希望能夠選擇兩者，但同時這對美國都有利
23:54
中國和世界上有哪些主要的合作組織？
23:59
有刺激性的
奧維爾·謝爾：
在我開始討論令人惱火的問題之前，讓我先說一下，九個美國總統政府
24:08
全心全意地支持參與，我同意你的觀點，你知道我們
24:13
挑選誰我們反對誰，但我我認為區別在於，越南沒有
24:23
任何一種在南海的霸權行為都不與
24:28
佐久不與菲律賓爭奪第二 托馬斯沙不
24:34
威脅要進行某種形式的休閑聚會，並強製與
24:41
台灣，當然我提醒你，我們在台灣遇到了一點灰塵
24:47
最近印度和東北部地區的整個阿羅納爾邦
24:54
中國聲稱他們在鞋子所在的地方有中文名稱的地圖
25:00
將會下降，所以這不僅僅是中國是一個很好的小獨裁國家
25:06
一個想要與世界其他國家進行貿易的國家，在我看來，是什麽擾亂了局勢並使之變得如此
25:12
不僅對美國來說非常困難，對中國的自命不凡也是如此
25:18
以一種首先在亞洲，然後可能是全球願望的方式實現複興
25:25
其他地方我們不知道，所以我想你知道這是一個比中國複雜得多的事情
25:31
恢複活力並恢複到一個偉大的地方，它正在伸手
25:37
我認為這些方式對東南亞來說非常令人不安，當我在新加坡時，令我震驚的是我
25:45
了解新加坡的情況，但實際上我的意思是我認為你們是新加坡人，我把你們當作一種
25:52
這個比喻對於很多東南亞人來說確實感受頗深
25:57
與美國人相處很舒服，實際上很多人都覺得
26:02
對中國感到不舒服，但你不想大聲表達出來
26:07
因為你不想公平地攪局，我明白，但我會喜歡
26:13
聽聽你談論我認為有些人所說的中國在亞洲的霸權主張
26:21
以及整個過程中的不穩定影響
26:26
地區
奧維爾·謝爾：
你認為中國正在犯與其他工業化國家一樣的錯誤嗎？
26:33
太快了，他們試圖運用他們剛剛收到的力量太快了，嗯，那是怎麽回事
26:41
從你的角度來看，東南亞對中國的一些行為感到不安
好吧，我可以向你保證
26:48
這是我研究地緣政治約 50 年後學到的一課
26:55
仁慈的大國的概念是一個矛盾修辭法，不存在“仁慈的大國”這樣的東西
27:01
仁慈的大國，所有大國無一例外，這隻是
27:07
真正的4000年來都會追求自己的利益，我們把它你知道在你身上
27:13
知道在地緣政治中他們是價格製定者和價格接受者，所以美國
27:19
今天的中國是價格製定者，我們是價格行情製定者，如果我們有任何形式的話
27:27
幻想有一個仁慈可愛的偉大力量，他們會照顧你並犧牲自己的利益
27:34
你遇到了麻煩，所以你陷入了地緣政治，這是一個非常殘酷的遊戲，
27:39
不了解地緣政治的國家就會陷入衝突並陷入困境
27:47
問題，在這裏我想補充一個非常重要的觀點，因為我認為對於一些
27:53
呃 orille 你對東南亞國家不公平
27:59
到最後 6.6 億人生活在東南亞，大約是這一數字的兩倍
28:05
美利堅合眾國和世界該地區的人口 I
28:10
想要強調的是地球 660 個區域中最多樣化的區域
28:17
百萬人口 2.5 億是穆斯林 150
28:22
百萬是基督徒 1.5 億是佛教 大乘佛教 H 佛教道教迷惑者
28:28
印度教徒，正如我告訴過你的，如果地球上有一個地區的話，我們在東南亞也有很多共產黨人
28:35
地球注定會發生戰爭和衝突，英國人將其描述為東南部的亞洲巴爾幹地區
28:43
亞洲現在你可以問自己一個簡單的問題為什麽沒有重大的
28:51
東南亞戰爭從79年至今已有44年45年
28:58
東南亞有一位隱藏的天才
29:05
阿桑，我們知道如何管理地緣政治，我們知道如何調整適應
29:13
保持靈活性，我們知道如何保持良好的關係
與美國，我們做的時候
29:20
拜登總統邀請了 10 位亞洲領導人，他們來得正是時候
29:27
她總統邀請了他們去的10位亞洲領導人，而澳大利亞總理阿爾貝裏則邀請了10位阿桑
29:34
領導者他們會去，所以如果你想學習，如果你想進入一個世界
29:40
不同的文化和文明希望學習如何彼此和平相處並能夠共同生活
29:46
彼此和平 來牙山 來東南亞 請不要
29:53
居高臨下地對待這個地區這個地區
29:58
取得了一些非凡的成就，全世界都可以從中吸取教訓，第一課就是向我們學習
30:07
如何避免
30:14
戰爭呃
奧維爾·謝爾：
首先我想說的是我我我同意你的觀點我們居高臨下
30:21
對任何人都不是一個有用的政策，而且我我不，我不想
30:28
認為我們對東南亞居高臨下，我認為實際上與我們試圖做的恰恰相反
30:35
認識到東南亞國家正如我所說，陷入了困境
30:40
中間，我認為我們理解這一點，我認為這不是美國政府推動的目標
30:47
人們，但這仍然沒有回答我關於中國的問題
30:53
中國境內外的假象以及您如何解讀這些假象
31:00
當中間立場縮小時，你認為答案是什麽
31:06
韓國人在薩德導彈危機發生後受到懲罰，問問你認識的日本人問問
31:14
印第安人 我的意思是你已經看到了這個你知道這個所以什麽是我們應該怎麽做
31:21
回應這個呃中國不隻是另一個常態
31:27
呃準民主試圖在世界上找到自己的出路並恢複活力和
31:34
重新獲得大國地位，這是一種特殊的政治
31:40
具有政治特殊世界觀的結構，我想知道你認為對中國的正確反應是什麽
31:47
就讓它單獨拉回第七艦隊算了
31:54
台灣忘記南海忘記佐久忘記菲律賓阻止澳大利亞
32:00
停止四輪驅動，你認為這是正確的反應還是你的反應是什麽？
32:08
補救U
基肖爾·馬凱碩：
羅裏，這變得非常有趣，我保證我非常非常
32:14
很高興回答問題，但我我要泄露一個大秘密了呃
32:21
中國就像任何其他國家一樣，是一個不完美的國家，它使得
32:28
錯誤，我知道，但據我所知，所有國家都會犯錯誤，中國確實犯了錯誤
32:36
與多個國家存在雙邊問題，這實際上是毫無疑問的
32:42
無論如何，你是對的，你的清單與日本和南方是對的
32:48
韓國，呃，菲律賓，澳大利亞，還有印度
32:55
是的，呃，這是大約五六個國家的名單，我想記得在
33:01
世界上有 193 個國家是對的
33:08
大多數國家與其他一些國家存在問題 美國與一些國家存在問題
33:14
是俄羅斯還是伊朗還是朝鮮還是中國所以這就是
33:20
正常，你知道，對於每個國家，你給我一個清單，我可以告訴你哪個是哪個雙邊
33:27
那個國家有希臘和土耳其的困難，如果你想要印度和巴基斯坦，如果
33:32
你想要所以有困難 雙邊困難是正常的
33:41
世界現狀是正確的，所以事實並非如此
33:46
令人驚訝的是，中國有時會處理雙邊困難
33:53
好吧，有時它管理得很糟糕，所有國家都管理它們呃
34:00
嗯，我認為就華南地區而言肯定如此
34:05
海 呃它犯了錯誤 呃它已經太遠了
34:12
自信，我認為中國人犯的最大錯誤是
34:18
創建這九條虛線和九條虛線我不知道你們是否都
34:23
知道這一點，中國在南海建立了一條假想的線，這是沒有根據的
34:30
如果中國確實主張所有權利的話，現在就遵守國際法
34:38
N n-h 線內的水域如某些人聲稱的那樣為領水
34:43
中國正在做的事情那麽中國不應該允許任何國際航運通過南中國海，但我可以向你保證
34:52
昨天、今天、明天都有船舶經過南海Reg
34:58
定期未經中國許可，即使他們經過 n-h 線沃特斯，所以 n-h 線
35:05
顯然，中國犯了一個巨大的錯誤，但當你談論南海時，有必要強調一下
35:13
中國與四個阿桑邦的爭端不是爭端
35:19
你知道美國，如果你看一下，呃，以一種方式看四個阿桑州，或者
35:27
另一個他們一直在努力管理它，無論是越南、馬來西亞、文萊還是
35:33
呃菲律賓現在現在你們都專注於當前的困難關係到
35:38
菲律賓正在與美國進行呃，但你知道你知道的
35:43
菲律賓選出一位傾向中國的總統格洛爾·馬克·帕瓦·阿羅
35:50
然後選舉另一位總統 Akino 移居美國，然後是 elac
35:55
Duete 前往中國，然後 elex maros 前往曼聯
36:00
各州你可以預測接下來會發生什麽，所以你知道所以這很重要
36:07
強調不要拍快照，重要的是要看到
36:12
長期前景和最終如果
36:17
華南東南部真的很危險，你應該看到呃戰爭
36:24
或或或或或你知道槍戰等等，但到目前為止你知道
36:29
每個人都非常克製，但我可以告訴你，東南亞都知道
36:35
很好，當中國作為一個大國回歸時，它將
36:44
我們必須做出戰略調整 你知道這是一回事
36:50
住在老鼠隔壁還好，但當老鼠變成一隻老鼠時
36:56
大象，你擔心大象翻倒，你如何處理，我
37:04
可以告訴你，東南亞國家在這方麵有著悠久的智慧。
37:10
如何管理中國和你知道的一個非常了解中國的國家是越南 越南一直是一個
37:18
與中國相鄰2000年，被中國占領僅1000年
37:24
多年來，你知道你知道越南人怎麽說越南人說要成為
37:30
越南領導人你必須能夠對抗
37:36
中國和你必須能夠和中國相處，如果你不能兩者兼得，你就不能
37:43
成為越南的領導人，這是古老的智慧，所以我可以向你保證，我們
37:50
不隻是變成傻瓜然後翻身說好吧做你想做的事
37:55
想要中國 不不我們沒那麽蠢好吧我們有自己的方式方法
38:04
坦率地說，如果你看看像印度尼西亞這樣的大國，也意味著有 2.6 億人口
38:12
對了 印尼和中國相處得怎麽樣 印尼順便說一下還是不錯的
38:20
美國的朋友想成為美國的好朋友，也是
38:26
管理中國，你想問你是否想觀察微妙和
38:32
複雜性 仔細觀察印度尼西亞人的所作所為，然後你
38:39
了解亞洲人的水平
38:45
你永遠不會看到的複雜性和微妙性，但它是真實的，它有效，而且它
38:54
阻止戰爭奧維爾我想回到你身邊試圖得到我原來的答案
39:02
問題 Al 這是一個令人著迷的 Back in Forth 我真的很欣賞你的觀點，嗯讓我用一個
39:08
嚐試以稍微不同的方式來引起你的回應 美國在世界上想要和需要什麽樣的中國
39:15
為了對抗中國並與中國相處
39:20
中國當然好美國也是一個非常善變且不可預測的國家
39:26
我們很容易認為它應該采取行動
39:31
理性地，也許有時會理性地行動，但事實並非如此，我想你知道理想的世界是矛盾的
39:39
非常悲慘的是，我們所擁有的世界是訂婚，我認為這是一個
39:45
亨利·基辛格是絕對正確的，他按下了開關，但他沒有調用它
39:51
訂婚 當時我們還不知道訂婚，但後來就變成了訂婚
39:56
訂婚的初衷是讓我們或多或少地接受彼此
Host:
good evening everyone and welcome I'm so delighted to be here tonight to moderate
0:06
what we are sure will be a lively discussion on us China rivalry the future of the and the future of the
0:12
global order um as H noted I'm RI Daniels I'm the managing director of the Asia Society policy Institute and before
0:20
I turn the conversation over to both Kore and Orville for some thoughts
0:25
initial thoughts on us China competition I do want to talk a little bit about about where we are right now so over the
0:33
last let's say 25 years there have been so many changes in this us China
0:39
relationship in part because these countries have changed so much over 25
0:44
years um with China's entry into the wut with the process of globalization
0:51
kind of turning forward much more speedily from that engine um there's
0:56
really been a a a shift in the balance of power in Asia and there have also
1:04
been numerous kind of new opportunities and challenges created by that process
1:10
of in economic integration but also the technological Revolution that we're all
1:15
experiencing they really changeed the way these two countries see each other um and see their place in the world so
1:22
we're in a period now where the US China relationship has gone from being on
1:28
relatively Cooperative footing um under the George Bush 2
1:33
Administration under the Obama administration's process of diplomacy the Strategic and economic dialogue to
1:40
really facing a new set of um irritants and challenges in the bilateral
1:47
relationship um some of those challenges have to do with you know China's shifting system as China kind of goes up
1:54
the economic value chains and starts to prioritize things above um wholesale
1:59
economic growth some of those shifts have to do with us reactions to globalization and the the blame that has
2:06
been put on China rightly or wrongly for um its role in you know perhaps eroding
2:13
us competitiveness economic competitiveness in the world um but
2:18
either way you know however you look at the situation there's no doubt that the relationship is now seen as one not of
2:27
Cooperative coexistence or diplomacy first but really a strategic competition
2:33
and in some cases strategic rivalry so with that backdrop in mind I
2:39
want to start with Kure and then turn to Orville for some opening remarks um what
2:44
from your perspective are the US and China competing over and why what kind of end
2:52
state do you think that these two countries hope to achieve in terms of their role in the world but also their
2:58
relationship with each other so over to you
Kishore Mahbubani:
thank you Rory first let me Begin
3:03
by thanking hammed and you for welcoming me back uh to the Asia Society I do feel
3:09
like this is almost my second home because I first came to the Asia Society in 1984 40 years ago when I was first
3:17
appointed Singapore's ambassador to the UN and I used to come here all the time so to come back here is like coming back
3:23
home and I'm also very happy to be a Perry wellhouse fellow uh representing
3:29
upen also at this uh discussion so um to
3:34
answer your question Rory uh I think before you can answer the specific question about the direction of us China
3:42
relations it's important to emphasize that we are dealing with it
3:47
within a very very different Global context and we have to understand this
3:53
difficult different Glo Global context if you're going to understand the Dynamics that are also driving the US
3:59
China uh relationship and there are at least three fundamental ways in which the world has changed uh now firstly to
4:08
put it very bluntly the 21st century where most of the US China competition will take place will be the Asian
4:14
Century now what do I mean when I say it's going to be the Asian Century it means that the shift of economic power
4:20
is going to move to Asia the the largest economies will be in Asia and just to
4:26
illustrate that point uh in the 1960s not so long ago out of the top five
4:33
economies zero were Asian zero today three are the top five are
4:40
Asian and and that future growth as you know is going to come from Asia so
4:45
that's one big shift uh that is happening the secondly on the geopolitical front clearly we are moving
4:52
from a unipolar world to at least a bipolar world and I like to say that
4:58
it's actually a bipolar world in a multi-polar sea because lots of new other other new powers are emerging
5:04
becoming more exertive and so the unipolar moment that the United States enjoyed at the end of the Cold War is
5:12
gone but many people haven't adjusted to the fact that it is gone and that you
5:20
now have to live in a world where you have to contend with pure powers and other significant Powers who not
5:27
necessarily going to bend to the wishes of of the great Powers so easily so it's a much more complex world that we have
5:34
to deal with and thirdly and equally important point in the cultural
5:40
Dimension too we are seeing some fundamental shifts that are happening where we've had a world in a sense that
5:46
has been dominated by one civilization Western Civilization for the past 200
5:51
years and western states as you know colonized the whole 100 years ago if you were sitting here in in 19 uh 24 the
6:00
West ran the whole world effortlessly right now you have a
6:08
multi-valve been Domin are reemerging and coming back in strength so even on
6:14
the cultural front it's a different world So within this larger Global context we also seeing the US China
6:21
contest so why is it happening the reason quite simply is that the United
6:27
States is doing what what exactly any number one power would do when it sees
6:34
the emergence of a competitor it makes sure that the competitor doesn't overtake it so it is pushing it down
6:41
that's what all great Powers have done so what the US is doing is not
6:46
surprising it's predictable and if you put X or Y that's exactly what would
6:52
happen because the US has been used to be number one it doesn't want to see this place to another power but at the
6:58
same time while this is predictable and expected
7:04
what is not clear to the rest of the world that is obviously watching this contest and is very worried about this
7:10
contest what exactly are the main strategic goals of the United States in
7:18
this contest you know and this frankly as I say in my book has China One that
7:24
Insight I got from Henry Kissinger in a one-on-one conversation when I was writing my book as China won and hit to
7:31
some extent you alluded to it in your remarks too so for example is it the goal of the United States to stop the
7:38
economic growth of China maybe that's why you have trade tariffs chips sanctions and so on so forth is that the
7:46
goal can't be done or is it the goal to overthrow the Chinese Communist
7:55
party again I'll explain later can be
8:00
done or is it the goal to do what United States did with the Soviet Union contain
8:07
it effectively leave it confined to a small universe and have it disengaged
8:13
from the rest of the world again as I'll explain later it can't be done so then at the end of the
8:20
day what the world is asking is what exactly does the United States want to
8:26
accomplish in this contest and what will be the end game
Host:
okay fantastic well you've already put a lot on the table for us to come back and discuss including um fundamental changes
8:39
the the rise of a multi-polar system the economic power and dynamism of Asia um
8:45
new cultures which I think is a really interesting point we should Circle back to but also raised a lot of questions
8:51
about us strategic goals so orille could you give us your perspective what are
8:57
the US and China competing over and why you know what does the US hope to achieve with this and what is the end
9:03
state that we're looking for
Orville Schell:
well it's always a great pleasure to
9:08
talk with Kore because it immediately makes me think in ways that I don't
9:14
normally have to think um the first thought that occurs to me uh after
9:20
hearing your remarks is this you ask what's the United States new strategy uh
9:28
post 1972 I guess we could call an engagement I would like to ask you what do you
9:35
think China's strategy is what are they after because actually this is a a dance
9:42
between two partners it isn't just up to the United States as I'm sure you would agree so what do you think China is
9:49
after and if I may ask you a question what power with great power
9:56
pretentions adopts wolf Warrior diplomacy antagonizes I mean who
10:02
antagonizes Canada Sweden Norway Australia India I
10:10
mean I could go on and why what's going on here how is that in
10:16
the advantage of anybody much less
10:23
China
Kishore Mahbubani:
I I I I I I I was looking forward to the opening remarks of
10:30
oh for forgive me I thought you would have some seven minutes of prepared
10:35
remark give me some to think but I I'm very I'm very happy o to answer uh your
10:41
question and if you don't mind again forgive me for doing this uh when you
10:47
talk about our world and and how the world sees especially uh what China's
10:55
goals and strategies are I I want you to bear in mind a very important
11:00
statistic which is that 12% of the world's population lives in the west and
11:06
88% of the world's population lives outside the west and let me make one point very
11:13
clearly and very boldly at the very beginning how the 12% views China is not
11:21
how the 88% views China and so for example uh when you ask about what is
11:28
China trying to ACC Lish and if you want to sort of if I can share with you what I pick up from my conversations with my
11:35
fellow Asians with Africans with Latin Americans they see that China is trying
11:43
to come back once again as a strong
11:48
civilization which it once used to be and you know China is he knows better
11:54
than I do he's the China expert I'm by the way I'm not a China expert let me emphasize that one time immediately I
12:01
I'm a China Observer uh and of course we have to be China observers because in Southeast
12:07
Asia as you all know geographically the power that is going to have the greatest impact on us clearly is China just sheer
12:14
proximity just as Latin America will live in the shadow of the United States of America southeast Asia has to live in
12:21
the shadow actually of China and India and myself so emphasize so our
12:26
perspective and that of other Africans is that we've seen this civilization for 4,000 years go up go down go up go down
12:35
and so the return of China is just part of a long 4,000 year history of dynastic
12:42
cycles and when the Chinese civilization goes down can go down very very badly
12:47
and I think oille knows better than any of us that they went through the one of the worst centuries the century of
12:53
humiliation from 1842 to 1949 but it's not normal for the Chinese civilization
12:59
to underperform for so long it's much more normal for them to come back after a while so what we see therefore from
13:06
let's say from sais Asia is a return of a civilization that we have seen for centuries go up and down so this is a
13:13
natural return now so when China tries to claim a place in the world as one of
13:18
the great Powers is a perfectly natural development now you you mentioned things
13:24
uh you use words like wolf Warrior diplomacy and what's interesting is that
13:30
while the term wolf Warrior diplomacy is so frequently used in the Anglo-Saxon
13:35
media and as you know the Anglo-Saxon media let's be very blunt about this has a very jaundice view of China and the
13:41
rest of the World discounts what the uh uh uh Anglo-Saxon media says about China
13:48
what the rest of the world does is to look at what China does and then deal
13:54
with it and at the end of the day you you will notice that countries have a
14:02
choice do they want to trade with China or do they not want to trade with
14:09
China and if you look at the Deeds China today does far more trade with the rest
14:15
of the world than the United States does by the way we do want to have trade with United States too but trade as you know
14:22
is a voluntary activity but it benefits the countries that do it so you take a country like Brazil which is much much
14:29
closer to the United States than it is to China 20 years ago it took
14:34
Brazil one year to export $1 billion to China today it takes
14:41
Brazil 60 hours to export 1 billion dollars to China so why shouldn't Brazil
14:49
have a normal trading relationship with China so you can see therefore the point
14:54
I'm trying to suggest to you is that if you look at many of the countries in the global South not all at many of the
15:01
countries in the global South they're very happy to have normal relations with China and they have no difficulties the
15:08
difficulties have come as I said primarily betweenin the United
15:13
States and China for understandable reasons this is nor this is what would
15:19
happen when you have a great power shifts and I actually think that in some
15:24
ways just as what the United States did towards China was predictable China responses towards the United States are
15:31
also predictable
Host:
of course we live in a really interconnected world now correct
15:38
right where the kind of this narrative about the the rise and fall of great
15:44
Powers ends up reverberating in different ways countries are very happy to trade with China and I will turn to
15:50
Orville in a minute for his thoughts on you know how the US sees China's Behavior but I from my perspective do
15:56
not think that the US um wants to hurt hamper harm China's legitimate trade
16:03
with the world but at the same time the countries are trading more with China they're also seeking greater and greater
16:09
security assistance from the US Orville could you break this down a little bit what are some of the concerns about
16:16
China's Behavior as it rises that are causing this kind of demand signal for
16:22
more us Western attention um perhaps including some of the economic coion
16:27
activities as you mentioned with can Canada and how do you see that in terms of um China's rise in this system and
16:37
its potential effects on global development moving forward
Orville Schell:
I think you know
16:45
um Kure I agree with you that uh yes China has every right to be a great
16:51
power and actually they've accomplished an amazing developmental uh uh success
16:57
story and I understand great Powers never like to be deposed and replaced by
17:03
others but I think in your argument and what I'd like to ask you about is China
17:10
is not just another great power it is a Marxist leninist regime that under xiin
17:17
ping has become very very different than we experienced in the 80s even in the 90s after the 1989 uh Beijing Massacre
17:25
and demonstrations and I think that without factoring that element into the
17:32
equation we can't just blly say China wants to be a great power wants to trade
17:38
with everybody everybody wants to trade with it because there is another element in the equation namely what China is after as a
17:47
new kind of techno autocracy in the world and whether other countries feel
17:53
comfortable with that now we were talking upstairs a bit about the Philippines I watch the Philippines
18:00
extremely carefully because I see that as a kind of a RoR scale I mean
18:05
southeast Asia fair enough Singapore caught in the middle doesn't want to have to choose Malaysia I get it but uh
18:15
I think we may be approaching a point where it's going to be at least more difficult if not impossible to stand in
18:22
the middle and I think we see in the Philippines flickers of that recognition
18:27
now admitt the world is always in flux so I'm curious to know how you view the
18:34
internal political shift in China where it is returning to a much more uh sort
18:41
of maest mode not completely so and how other countries the Comfort levels they
18:47
feel about accepting China's hegemony in Asia if not in the world uh are you
18:53
comfortable with this I mean Singapore is a small little country how do you
18:59
feel about that yes you want to keep trading but there are other factors here I think you have to take into
19:07
consideration well
Kishore Mahbubani:
first of all let me uh if you don't mind quickly comment on the point you raised
19:12
Rory uh when you mentioned that uh countries are also moving closer to the United States uh you're absolutely right
19:20
uh I want to emphasize also to avoid any misunder understanding that there are huge reservoirs of Goodwill globally
19:26
towards the United States and and the world is actually quite happy to see a strong United States and a strong China
19:33
and to some extent if they balance each other that's not too bad uh for the World At Large so it's not as though the
19:39
world is rushing to embrace China and saying goodbye America that's not the world the world actually most countries
19:45
in the world as you yourself said oille want to have good ties with with both United States and China uh now in your
19:53
in your point about uh the internal uh political
19:59
makeup of China and isn't China becoming more Marxist leninist or communist and
20:05
are we worried about that and I think here I want to emphasize that there is
20:10
only one country in the world uh that passes judgments on the internal
20:16
political systems of other country it's a very exceptional country and I think you all know of
20:23
American exceptionalism I can tell you that you know the UN is not too far away from here it's a mile or two away if you
20:31
walk into the United Nations you will find that one of the most uh sacred
20:37
principles of the UN Charter uh which is actually uh held to very strongly by
20:45
member states of the UN is that we will not interfere in each other's Internal
20:51
Affairs that's enshrined in the UN Charter and that principle is used by
20:56
Most states when they deal with each other so attitude of most states in the world is you choose your form of
21:02
government no matter what you choose we will deal with the government uh in
21:07
power and so whether China is more Marxist or less Marxist or Democratic or
21:13
undemocratic we can get we cannot get to choose it's up to the Chinese at the end of day choose what kind of government
21:19
that they have but I do think also if if I can or will push a little bit bit uh
21:25
back at you you know when United States first fell in
21:34
love with China in 1971 can I ask you who was the leader of
21:44
China at that point was it maong would you call maong a great
21:52
defender of Human Rights would you say that he is this is
21:58
the man with a liberal mind a liberal Spirit someone you can you know develop
22:05
a kinship with you know what I'm getting at right so when it comes to
22:12
geopolitics it's a very cruel business ideology can be put aside when
22:21
necessary can be brought to the for when necessary and even today if you say
22:29
that the United States will stand up and stand up the Communist party's
22:36
regimes why are you cultivating Vietnam what's the
22:43
difference I mean is isn't doesn't Vietnam also have a Communist party in power so I'm only saying this because
22:52
the rest of the world when I say that the rest of the world has changed they've become much
22:59
more sophisticated they see through all this they see that yes there's a serious
23:05
geopolitical contest going on between United States and China they are very
23:10
worried about it they want to maintain good ties with both and they won't pass judgment and it's not just to be fair or
23:18
it's not just Singapore I can I can give you if you want a list of 100 countries
23:23
I can give you a list of 100 countries that are in that position
Host:
can we talk a little bit about
23:30
how countries are approaching this um desire not to make a choice like what
23:36
are the factors orille from your perspective that are narrowing country's options down into making a choice
23:42
between the US and China when it's clear that most countries don't want to choose
23:48
or want to be able to maybe choose both um but also that it benefits both the US
23:54
China and the world for there to be that type of Cooperative tissue what are some of the major
23:59
irritant
Orville Schell:
well before I get to the irritant let me just say k sure that nine US Presidential administrations
24:08
wholeheartedly supported engagement and I take your point that you know we we
24:13
pick and choose who who who we oppose and and but I I I think the the difference is that uh Vietnam is not has
24:23
no sort of hegemonic pretenses in the South China Sea is not in conflict with
24:28
the Saku is not competing with the Philippines for second Thomas sha is not
24:34
threatening to to have some sort of a a Rec reunion with a forced reunion with
24:41
Taiwan and and of course I remind you that uh we've had a little dust up in
24:47
India of late and the entire aronal Pradesh in the Northeast territories is
24:54
claimed by China they have maps with Chinese name on places that shoe is
25:00
going to drop so it isn't that just China's a a nice little authoritarian
25:06
country wanting to trade with the rest of the world it seems to me that what is agitating the situation and making it
25:12
very difficult not just for the United States but is China's pretentions to
25:18
rejuvenate in a way that has Global aspirations first in Asia and possibly
25:25
elsewhere we don't know so I think that you know this is a very much more complicated thing than just China
25:31
rejuvenating and restoring itself to a place of greatness it is reaching out in
25:37
ways which I think are very unsettling for Southeast Asia and when I'm in Singapore the thing that stuns me is I
25:45
understand Singapore's situation but actually I mean I think you singaporeans and I use you as a kind
25:52
of a metaphor for many people in Southeast Asia do feel rather profoundly
25:57
comfortable with American an and actually many people feel rather
26:02
uncomfortable with China but it is the you don't want to express it too loudly
26:07
because you don't want to rock the boat fair enough I get it but I I would love
26:13
to hear you address what I think some would call China's hegemonic pretentions in Asia
26:21
and the destabilizing effect of that throughout the entire
26:26
region
Orville Schell:
do you think China is making the same mistakes that other industrialized countries are making that they expand
26:33
too far too fast that they try to wield the power that they've just received too quickly and how does um how does that
26:41
uncomfortableness in Southeast Asia with some of China's Behavior play out from your perspective
well I can assure you
26:48
that um one lesson I learned after studying geopolitics for about 50 years
26:55
is that the concept of a benevolent great power is is an oxymoron there's no such thing as the
27:01
benevolent great power all great powers without exception and this has only been
27:07
true for 4,000 years will pursue their own interests and we take it you know in you
27:13
know in geopolitics they are price makers and price takers so United States
27:19
and China today are price makers we are price tickers and if we have any kind of
27:27
Illusion that there's a nice benevolent cuddly great power they will look after you and sacrifice his own interest then
27:34
you're in trouble so you in geopolitics which is the very cruel game and the
27:39
countries that don't understand geopolitics are the one that get sucked into conflict and get sucked into
27:47
problems and here I want to add a very important point because I think to some
27:53
extent uh orille you being unfair to the soueast Asian States there are at the
27:59
end of the day 660 million people living in Southeast Asia that's about double
28:05
the population of United States of America and this region of the world I
28:10
want to emphasize is the most diverse region of planet Earth out of 660
28:17
million people 250 million are Muslims 150
28:22
million are Christian 150 million are Buddhist Mahayana Buddhist H Buddhist taist confusionists
28:28
Hindus and as I told you we have lots of Communists also in Southeast Asia if there was one region on planet
28:35
Earth that should be destined for war and conflict and the British describe it as the Balkans of Asia that was soueast
28:43
Asia now can you please ask yourself a simple question why have there been no major
28:51
Wars in Southeast Asia since 79 that's 44 45 years
28:58
there is a hidden genius in Southeast Asia in
29:05
asan we know how to manage geopolitics we know how to adjust adapt
29:13
be flexible we know how to maintain good ties with United States and we do when
29:20
President Biden invites the 10 assian leaders they come right and when
29:27
President she invites the 10 Asian leaders they go and when Prime Minister alberi of Australia invites 10 asan
29:34
leaders they go so if you want to learn if you want to enter a world in which
29:40
different cultures and civilizations want to learn how to live in peace with each other and can live in
29:46
peace with each other come to asan come to Southeast Asia please don't
29:53
be condescending towards this region this region
29:58
has accomplished some remarkable things that the whole world can take lessons from and lesson number one learn from us
30:07
how to avoid
30:14
Wars uh
Orville Schell:
first of all I would say that I I I agree with you we condescension
30:21
towards anyone is not a a helpful policy and and and I I don't I don't want to
30:28
think that we are condescending towards southeast Asia and I think actually quite the contrary that we try to do
30:35
recognize that that Southeast Asian countries are as I said stuck in the
30:40
middle and and I think we understand that and it's not I think the goal of the United States government to push
30:47
people but that still doesn't answer my question of China's
30:53
pretentions both within China and outside of China and how you read those
31:00
and what you think the answer is as the middle ground shrinks and ask the
31:06
Koreans after what happened with the Thad Missile Crisis and they got punished ask the Japanese you know ask
31:14
the Indians I mean you've seen this you know this so what is h how should we
31:21
respond to this uh China is not just another normal
31:27
uh quazi democracy trying to find its way in the world and to rejuvenate and and
31:34
reattain great power status it is a particular kind of a a political
31:40
structure with a pol particular kind of world view and I wonder you know what you think the proper response to China
31:47
is just let it alone pull back the seventh fleet forget
31:54
Taiwan forget the South China Sea forget the Saku forget Philippines stop Aus
32:00
stop the quad do you think that's the proper response or what's your
32:08
remedy U
Kishore Mahbubani:
Rory this is getting very interesting I promise a li I'm very I'm
32:14
very happy to answer the questions but I I I'm going to give away a big secret uh
32:21
China is like any other country an imperfect country uh it makes
32:28
mistakes and I know but as far as I know all countries make mistakes and it is true that China has
32:36
had bilateral problems with several countries there's actually no question
32:42
whatsoever and you're right you have the list right with Japan with South
32:48
Korea uh with Philippines with Australia and also with India you're
32:55
right uh that's a list of about five or six countries I think remember at the
33:01
end of the day there are 193 countries in the world right and
33:08
most countries have problems with some other countries United States has problems with some countries whether
33:14
it's Russia whether it's Iran whether it's North Korea China so it's this is
33:20
normal and you know for every country you give me a list mention I can tell you which which which bilateral
33:27
difficulties that country has Greece and Turkey if you want India and Pakistan if
33:32
you want so having difficulties having bilateral difficulties is by the way a normal
33:41
state of the world right so it is not
33:46
surprising that China has bilateral difficulties sometimes it manages them
33:53
well sometimes it manages them badly where all countries manag them uh
34:00
well I think um certainly in in the case of South China
34:05
Sea uh it has made mistakes uh it has been far too
34:12
assertive and I think the the biggest mistake the Chinese have made uh is in
34:18
creating this nine dash line and the nine dash line I don't know if you all
34:23
know this there a sort of a hypothetical line in the South China Sea that's been created by China has no basis in
34:30
international law right now if it is true that China claims all the
34:38
waters within the N n-h line as territorial Waters as some people claim
34:43
the China is doing then China shouldn't allow any international shipping through South China Sea but I can assure you
34:52
yesterday today and tomorrow ships are going through the South China Sea Reg
34:58
regularly without seeking permission of China even though they're going through the n-h line Waters so the n-h line
35:05
clearly is a huge mistake that China has made but when you talk about the South China Sea it's important to emphasize
35:13
that the dispute that China has is with four Assan States it's not a dispute as
35:19
you know with the United States and if you look at it uh look at the four Assan States in one way or
35:27
another they been trying to manage it whether it's Vietnam Malaysia brunai and
35:33
uh Philippines now right now you are all focused on the current difficulties that
35:38
Philippines is having uh with United States but you know you know oille that
35:43
Philippines elects one president glor Mak pava Aro that moves towards China
35:50
then it elects another president Akino who moves to United States and then elac
35:55
duete who moves towards China and then elex maros who moves towards United
36:00
States can you anticipate what's coming next okay so you know so it's important
36:07
to emphasize that don't take a snapshot it's important to see the
36:12
long-term picture and at the end of the day if
36:17
South China SE really is that dangerous you should be seeing uh Wars
36:24
or or or or you know gun battles and so on so forth but you know so far
36:29
everybody's been very restrained but I can tell you this southeast Asia knows
36:35
very well that when China comes back as a great power as it has and it is going to
36:44
be we have to make strategic adjustments you know is one thing to
36:50
live next door to a mouse fine but when the mouse becomes an
36:56
elephant you worry about the elephant rolling over and how do you manage that and I
37:04
can tell you that the Southeast Asian countries have had very long wisdom in
37:10
how to manage China and the one country oille as you know that knows China very well is Vietnam Vietnam has been a
37:18
neighbor of China for 2,000 years it was occupied by China only 1,000
37:24
years and and you know you know what the vietnames say the vietnames say that to become a
37:30
leader of Vietnam you must be able to stand up to
37:36
China and you must be able to get along with China if you cannot do both you cannot
37:43
be a leader of Vietnam that's old wisdom so I can assure you that we're
37:50
not just going to become suckers and roll over and say okay do whatever you
37:55
want China no no we not that stupid okay that we have our own ways and means and
38:04
frankly if you look at a large country like Indonesia also mean 260 million people
38:12
right how does Indonesia get along with China Indonesia by the way is a good
38:20
friend of United States wants to be a good friend of United States and is also
38:26
managing China and you want to ask if you want to watch subtlety and
38:32
complexity watch carefully what the Indonesians do then you
38:39
understand that the Asians have a level of
38:45
sophistication and subtlety that you will never see but it's real and it works and it
38:54
prevents Wars Orville I want to turn back to you to try to get an answer to my original
39:02
question Al this has been a fascinating Back in Forth I've really appreciated your views um let me ask it in a
39:08
slightly different way to try to elicit your response what kind of China does America want and need in the world in
39:15
order to stand up to China and get along with
39:20
China well of course America is also a very fickle country and unpredictable
39:26
country and and and it's easy for us to think that it it it should act
39:31
rationally and maybe does ACT rationally sometimes but it doesn't I think you know the ideal world was paradoxically
39:39
and quite tragically the world we had which was engagement it was a I think
39:45
Henry Kissinger was absolutely right he threw the switch and he didn't call it
39:51
engagement then we didn't know about engagement yet but it became that and
39:56
the conceit of engagement was let's accept each other more or less let's
40:02
trade let's exchange let's try to get along and slowly see if we can't get on
40:08
a more convergent pathway and I think you all know that uh
40:15
America actually this was I think a a really good example of American leadership and I will remind you after
40:23
the Beijing Massacre what did President Bush du who was at the initial uh you know before we
40:31
had an embassy he was in Beijing representing the United States he sent Brent skof to see dong sha ping secretly
40:38
didn't even tell Ambassador Jim Lily that they were going the transcript of
40:43
that meeting is very telling because what it shows us was skull Croft really
40:48
got berated by dun shaing who I actually I think is quite a hero I don't want to
40:54
malign him but only to say that dong saw the demonstrations as caused by the
41:00
United States and was very abusive to skoof who was saying please remember
41:06
President Bush thinks of China uh the China relationship is important wants to
41:12
continue it I I raise that only to say that I think the United States has gone
41:17
the distance to try to find a way to do exactly what you propos Kure which is to
41:25
accept maybe not completely but to get along work it out see if the
41:31
future can't hold a better future a more congruent future and I think what we see
41:37
if I may just quickly jump to the end here and then stop is that in a certain sense if I read this correctly I think
41:44
xiin ping has brought engagement to an end sadly and tragically both for us for
41:51
you and for China and I ask you why how do you explain it
41:58
and that changes the game completely so what are you going to do about it what
42:03
am I going to do about it what are we going to do about what's the right response now that we don't have an
42:09
operating system for any kind of a a as Hamid said we're
42:17
compasses what's the answer you tell me could you actually talk to us a
42:23
little bit about where you think the US China relationship could more productively Go I mean I think Orville a
42:30
lot of the points that you've made and also Kure the points that you've made have really pointed to a very deep
42:36
strategic mistrust between the US and China don't trust each other's political systems China thinks the US is
42:43
fermenting color revolutions inside the PRC because of American democracy you
42:49
know the US thinks that um Chinese techno authoritarianism could spread throughout the world um we don't have
42:56
agreement on on what we are doing with regard to our Taiwan policy we're
43:02
definitely interpreting each other's actions as aggressive when we see our own as defensive so how do we manage
43:09
this strategic mistrust and maybe if we can throw in Orville's layer how do we do it in the XI Jin ping
43:15
era yeah great questions um strategic mistrust you're absolutely
43:23
right and I can tell you that this strategic mistrust between in United States and China worries the whole world
43:30
a great deal because at the end of the day no matter what you do the reality is that
43:39
China frankly has already emerged as a great power I I don't buy the the conventional
43:48
wisdom in the Anglo-Saxon media which is by the way always wrong on China in
43:55
1990 when the econom IST first predicted the coming collapse of the Chinese
44:01
economy in 1990 the Chinese GNP was $360
44:08
billion a few months ago The Economist again came out with a story saying
44:14
Chinese economy is going the Chinese economic growth is over but then it had grown to 18 trillion it had grown 50
44:22
times after 30 years of predictions of the coming collapse of China why do I emphasize that China's rise is
44:32
Unstoppable and it's not driven by you or by me is driven by 1.4 billion
44:38
Chinese people and I'm sure you read the column by Martin wolf in the financial times last week in which he said if 1.4
44:48
billion Chinese people decide to become
44:55
prosperous nothing can stop them and the Chinese
45:00
people have this great desire to do as well as the rest of the
45:07
world and so they have China by the way China's economy has serious serious
45:12
serious problems property bubble demographic challenges uh uh lack of
45:19
investor confidence these are all real issues but at the end of the day what we have learned is that if there's one set
45:26
of Poli makers that seem to know how to fix their problems gradually it is uh
45:32
China now if you want me to answer your question directly uh oille about uh
45:38
president xiin ping I want you to know that again I
45:43
want to go back to my point of 193 countries in the world almost no other country in the
45:52
world passes judgment on the quality
45:57
of the leader that they are dealing with they accept the fact that he's the
46:03
leader and we have to deal with him good bad friendly
46:09
unfriendly and frankly I want to tell you this if you
46:14
don't mind very directly if you did a poll of 193 leaders and asked
46:21
them in 2017 2018 would you would you rather deal
46:27
with President xiin ping or would you rather deal with President Donald
46:35
Trump but tell you 193 countries would vote in favor sh Ming I'm
46:42
serious so when you emphasize that oh it's a
46:48
leader that's a problem it's not the problem you have to deal with a
46:54
country and I can tell you is you know since I've spoken to many people in especially in third world countries who
47:01
have dealt with President XI they don't share your vision of President she they see him as a
47:10
sane sober rational
47:16
predictable leader who is advancing China's
47:21
interests quite effectively I mean at the end of the day
47:27
you look at where China was when he took power 2014 where China is
47:33
2024 it has come a long way so we
47:38
whatever we do we don't underestimate him or China by the way we also don't
47:45
underestimate United States I want to assure you that the respect for United
47:51
States is deep and profound and very strong but in the same way there's also
47:59
the same deep profound respect for China and we know we have to deal with these
48:04
two great powers and actually we believe that the United States would be better
48:10
off now don't call it engagement don't call it containment just deal with the
48:18
reality the reality is that there is a strong great power like China and you
48:25
have to live with it and then figure out what's the best way of living with it in
48:30
a way that enhances America's national interest and I would say for America to
48:37
defend its National interest is perfectly legitimate perfectly legitimate but in
48:44
many ways the world would be happier that if given the all the extra
48:50
extraodinary challenges you're facing for example in climate change you know you're the expert on climate
48:55
change the the most sensible thing Humanity could do is to tell United States and
49:02
China please we have a bigger problem coming if we burn out planet Earth we
49:08
have nothing left to live on we're destroying the only ship we have why don't we press the pause button on this
49:14
geopolitical contest frankly is less important than the global challenges we face so if you ask me what the rest of
49:21
the world thinks they actually hope that the United States and China could find
49:27
ways and means of dealing with their differences in such a way that it doesn't destabilize the rest of the
49:34
world and allows us to focus on what's really important that's coming in the
49:39
future we need to turn to your audience and get them involved in the questions
49:45
but from my perspective I think that is what reasonable people in the US
49:50
government are trying to do with the strategy of strategic competition the question I think that um raised at the
49:57
beginning is instructive do we have the Strategic Vision to carry forward our national interests the defense of our
50:04
national interest in a rational way that does not make the problem worse um please the audience throw us your
50:11
questions you can raise your hand I see one hand right here a mic will come to you shortly and
50:18
we'll take your questions thank you so much for the
50:24
great talk and good to see you again per first so uh I have two questions actually the first one is a little bit more specific
50:32
I remember uh Ambassador meani criticized China's reactions in South chinae SE decades ago including the
50:37
night Dash lines so how would you assess his recent approach to the Taiwan Street including what happened couple days ago
50:44
the new fishbo incident and it's being in the country criticized it's being not aggressive so do you think they learned
50:49
a lesson from the past and become more moderate these days but they also exert more military controlling areas that
50:55
used to be co- patroled and the second question is you talk about the different leaders so um forget
51:02
about a longstanding regime possibly in China what if Trump comes back this year couple years ago you critic that uh you
51:09
had an article saying that Trump helped China to gain International reputation
51:14
during his uh during his presidency so what if it comes back in the end of this year how do you think this going to
51:20
affect the bilateral relationship thank you I'd like to give you both a chance to answer those two questions so we'll
51:25
start with you sure okay the first question was on Taiwan second question what happens if Trump comes back okay
51:33
now by the way I think we all know I think aille would agree that by far the most dangerous um issue in the US China
51:41
bilateral relationship is Taiwan if there's one thing that could cause a war
51:46
between United States and China it is Taiwan and I think you all know that
51:52
from the Chinese point of view Taiwan is the last living symbol of the century of humiliation because Taiwan as you
51:59
know was first separated from China after China lost the Sino Japanese war in 1895 so not bringing Taiwan back is
52:07
seem like a a sort of a continuing wound in Chinese civilization that has to be
52:12
fixed but at the same time to prevent War the best thing we can do is to keep
52:18
the status quo as it is and not change it in any way and so those who want to
52:23
preserve peace in Taiwan Straits keep keep the status quo and some of it is
52:29
fictional of course the fiction is that the Republic of China represents all of China but that's a fiction that's
52:35
actually very important for peace the minute you drop that you create War now
52:40
at the same time I think we must all understand and respect the desire of the
52:46
people of Taiwan to keep their Lifestyles as it is they don't want to change they don't want to join uh
52:51
mainland China that's understandable but if you want to find a solution
52:58
that accommodates both the desire of the Taiwanese people to keep their the way
53:04
of life they're used to without any change whatsoever without any fear without any difficult and to also
53:11
prevent a war it can be done but the question is do you want to
53:16
see peace across Taiwan streets or do you want to see a war so I'm hope and I
53:21
must say to be fair many US administrations have understood that very very well so when
53:28
President Chan of Tai Taiwan emerged as you know in around
53:35
2003 2004 it was President George W bush that made it very clear to president
53:40
chunri ban I will not allow you to have a referendum that was a very wise decision
53:46
made by the president of the United States so the US government understands
53:51
the sensitivity of this issue so that's got to be very carefully managed now in the case Cas so what happens when Trump
53:58
uh comes back uh I I think if if Trump comes back huh if Trump comes back oh
54:06
if we not please delete that from the
54:11
record no I'm sorry yeah no no by the way I let me okay let me be very blunt very direct the I would say most
54:18
countries in the world would be happy happier if President Joe Biden's elected let me be very clear about that uh I
54:25
mean president Joe Biden is a very predictable uh careful
54:31
sensitive uh president who as you know has has made many friends around the
54:37
world but president Donald Trump version two if he comes back will I think be a
54:45
much bigger challenge uh for the world much much bigger challenge for the world
54:53
and that's why actually in some
54:58
ways if the United States could focus a bit
55:04
more on his own internal challenges as I say in chapter 7 of my
55:10
book as China One if the United States could become less of a
55:16
plutocracy and create a society where the bottom 50% who have seen a stagnation in their
55:23
standard of living for 30 years if you can improve their standard of living give them a sense of hope then
55:31
they won't vote for Donald Trump so from the from the point of view of rest of the world we want to see a strong
55:40
vibrant United States where the people are happy and they elect a happy
55:48
president Orville thoughts on either well I I have nothing to say on Trump I
55:55
have no idea what he' do if he's president I mean it's catch as catch can it's it's and I agree with you K sure
56:01
the best thing we can do is straighten our own mess out and be better leaders in the world and and preserve our
56:07
democracy as to Taiwan I think my remedy for Taiwan is
56:12
exactly maidong and Dong XA pings As maong Told Winston who's here and
56:19
Kissinger and Nixon let it let it be for 100
56:24
Years Don't let don't worry about it when dun xaing stopped in Tokyo on his
56:30
way to Washington to uh to meet with Jimmy Carter and reestablished diplomatic relations he said he was
56:38
asked about this and he said leave it for future Generations smarter generations to deal with that's the
56:45
smart way but that's not xiin Ping's way so I think you know we know what
56:51
happened to Tong Kong it's pretty obvious you know the that that there
56:57
will be some movement toward Taiwan maybe not an amphibious assault or something like that but I wager there'll
57:03
be some pecking away at the edges which will be really challenging I would say finally Kure this you say let's just
57:11
Live and Let Live and get along with China and accept them good but sometimes uh I think you'd
57:20
have to agree with me history provides a lot of examples where that does not work
57:25
and I raised the question of the Ukraine here I mean sometimes countries irid
57:32
Dental with potions of irredentism they they act as Russia did in the Ukraine I
57:38
fear that could happen in some way in the Taiwan Straits or in the South China Sea or with the Saku and I think that's
57:46
it's it's a very foolish uh pretention that China has that this wound as you
57:52
describe it is so deep that they have to go up Poss possibly blowing up the whole
57:57
Asian economic miracle and they take down Singapore with them let's take a
58:02
few more questions grouped all together if we can I'm going to say one two three
58:08
we'll take all three questions while we're bringing the mic to the first person um on the Taiwan straight I think
58:14
it's really instructive to remember that though there was this fishing boat incident it did not escalate into a
58:20
crisis and there's probably very clever smart diplomacy between
58:26
um officials or with officials in taibe Beijing and Washington that made sure
58:33
that that incident was relatively well contained so a bright spot in an otherwise messy neighborhood right up
58:39
here uh thank you so much I'm curious to here are your thoughts on China's increasing military presence in West
58:45
Africa uh eatori Guinea and now potentially jibou as well I'm sorry could you repeat that China China's
58:52
increasing military presence in Africa China's increasing military presence in Africa thank you next
58:58
question where are we right here yeah hi so thank you both uh for
59:07
this really interesting talk uh but it seems like uh on the side of China we're spending a lot of time talking about
59:14
what feels like the China of 2009 when they were at their peak in terms of influence when comparatively uh their
59:22
system of state-backed capitalism looked much better uh than the of the West and
59:27
well don't fully agree that the United States is the only country in the world that judges the leadership of other
59:32
countries uh China was also very um judgment free this was the time of a lot of infrastructure
59:39
Investments um but I think that's not the China of today and especially after the pandemic uh I think there's a lot of
59:46
a lot more Eric leadership um and a lot less of this kind of rule by Council
59:51
first among equals that you saw before when China was more stable and so I think that fun Al question of the China
59:58
of today with Xi Jinping with a much more personalized leadership does seem more unstable does that not worry more
1:00:04
of these countries than that you know that list of who would choose between the United States and China I don't think that's an operation anymore is
1:00:10
that the question what is what are other countries in the world thinking about the stability of XI jinping's leadership
1:00:16
today yeah it's much different leadership in China than it was before the pandemic and since the financial
1:00:21
crisis okay we have time for one more question I apologize I know a lot of you have the in the area we should answer
1:00:27
them as they come up or we'll forget them I've got them military inter u Chinese military in West Africa chines
1:00:33
military in Africa has being changed after the pandemic can we just take the last question I'm the third I had my hand up
1:00:40
first I'm going to go thank you I'm deeply impacted by Orville's
1:00:46
brother's book The Gift of time in which he highlights Albert Einstein's uh admonition that the
1:00:52
nuclear bomb changed everything except our thinking and drift toward catastrophe and what he was talking
1:00:58
about was the West philan model of nation states playing with these devices
1:01:04
and putting the whole world at risk every day and I'm also deeply informed by facts realism we're destroying
1:01:12
species at over a thousand times The evolutionary base rate 60% of our oxygen
1:01:17
comes from the health of the pH of the oceans because phytoplankton gives us our oxygen we're destroying rainforests
1:01:25
faster than their being replenished and the list goes on of problems that cannot be solved in the westan model of
1:01:32
competition among states how do we bring realism planetary realism back to the
1:01:38
discussion as you highlighted in the whole range of problems that are not about identity not about civilization
1:01:46
but about the reality that we're facing today thank you okay I'm going to turn
1:01:51
to Orville first on these three questions Chinese military and West Africa let me
1:01:57
in my weak brain let me answer that first uh yes the great tragedy for me of
1:02:03
the end of Engagement is the planet is at risk because the United States and China cannot cooperate and we absolutely
1:02:10
must learn how to but uh I also call your attention to the fact that John
1:02:15
ky's been working on this for decades and not gotten very far so it takes
1:02:22
reciprocity to bring about resolution questions like climate change nuclear
1:02:28
weapons pandemics and that's exactly what's missing now if I read the Biden Administration correctly the door is
1:02:35
open but I'm not sure it's very open in Beijing to these questions and if it isn't open in both sides you don't have
1:02:42
a partnership you don't have a dialogue you don't have effective action so I would say that about that that would be
1:02:48
my response to you about uh I'll answer one other question quickly XI Jin ping
1:02:54
stability you know I I listen we may just disagree here keaw I
1:03:01
think xiin ping is a leader who's very different from any of the prime
1:03:06
ministers any of the premieres or party General secretaries I watched from who
1:03:12
ya bang on down and I think it's a problem he is deeply involed victim culture he he
1:03:20
deeply believes in that sort of old ma Trope of hostile foreign forces are out
1:03:26
to overturn you know regime change all of these things not entirely untrue I might add but it is a problem that makes
1:03:34
it very difficult for China to be soluble in the world that the liberal
1:03:41
Democratic states live in even though they're in a fallen State of Grace often and I think this is a a huge danger and
1:03:49
in this sense leadership matters K last word to you on any any of
1:03:56
these questions or a response or okay three quick questions firstly on the military Chinese military in Africa I I
1:04:03
want to say this as respectfully as I can I would say I respect the
1:04:09
Africans if the Africans decide for their own security they want to have closer
1:04:15
military ties with the United States that's a good choice defendable choice if they want to
1:04:22
have good ties with China let them choose you know so please
1:04:27
allow the Africans to decide for themselves I can tell you in
1:04:33
private many Africans complain to me about the condescension they get when
1:04:39
they make their own decision so I think it's very very important to to take the
1:04:45
view that Africans can judge for themselves what is good for them now on the question of xiin
1:04:52
ping I actually uh believe believe that I think
1:04:57
this what you express is the conventional view of the Anglo-Saxon
1:05:03
media the first point I'm going to make is that the conventional view of the
1:05:08
Anglo-Saxon uh media on xiin PING is not shared by most countries in the
1:05:15
world and I can tell you this that many of the world
1:05:20
leaders who have dealt with President XI face to face
1:05:26
deal with him discuss issues find him a sober and reasonable
1:05:34
interlocutor and the one point of which I would say where I have the maximum
1:05:39
amount of disagreement with oille is that oille portrays a
1:05:47
man whose dream is to revive Marxism
1:05:52
leninism to revive communism that's not how most Asians see
1:05:58
shei we see shei as someone who believes that China has been a great
1:06:06
civilization it has had 100 bad years it's time for Chinese civilization to
1:06:13
come back so if he has a dream the dream has nothing to do with communism Marxism
1:06:19
leninism even though it is China is run by the Chinese Communist party it is an instrument the Chinese Communist party
1:06:26
is an instrument that has been used to revive what Chi chin ping believes to be
1:06:32
a great civilization so that's his end goal but I think the most important question was
1:06:39
the last question and I completely agree with you that our planet is endangered
1:06:44
in many different ways and you spell them out and frankly that's why in my
1:06:50
book you know the great convergence I say that the world has changed fundamentally and to explain how change
1:06:56
fundamentally I use a very simple boat analogy and I hope you'll reflect on
1:07:01
this boat analogy in the past when we live in 193 separate C separate
1:07:07
countries it was as though we were living 193 separate boats right so we could decide what to
1:07:14
do on our boat so if one boat got Co the other boats wouldn't get it they're in
1:07:20
different boats but the world has shrunk and I really mean that literally we no longer
1:07:27
live in 193 separate boats we live on 193 separate cabins on
1:07:35
the same boat now if you on a boat together and
1:07:40
the boat begins to sink the stupidest thing to do is to lock up your cabin and
1:07:46
say I'll protect my cabin and that's exactly what we are
1:07:52
doing which is bizarre we're supposed to represent the most intelligent species
1:07:57
on planet Earth but we doing something completely stupid in response to these great
1:08:04
planetary challenges and that's why I say the wisest thing you can do about this geopolitical contest between us and
1:08:11
China at least just press the pause button for a while look at what's
1:08:17
happening in the world focus on the real Global challenges maybe after we fix
1:08:23
them then we can go back to the squabbles thank
1:08:28
you all right we have reached thank you guys all so much we've reached time I
1:08:34
think that we have not resolved the US China rivalry but hopefully um you were
1:08:41
entertained and also if we can keep having conversations like this including um bringing prominent Asian experts to
1:08:49
this New York audience at the Asia Society we have a much better chance of of being in enlightened wise captains of
1:08:58
this boat that we are all in
