Alan Freeman 自1960工業化國家經濟持續下降

世界工業化國家經濟增長60年下降趨勢

https://doi.org/10.1080/2329194X.2023.2214594
艾倫·弗裏曼
2023年5月11日收稿，2023年5月11日接受，在線發布：2023年6月1日， CrossMark

這份報告利用一係列權威來源的數據，研究了工業化北方國家戰後的長期經濟增長，並表明，至少自 20 世紀 60 年代初以來，經濟增長一直在持續下降，隻有短暫和有限的中斷。這一趨勢極其強勁，所有北方主要經濟體無一例外。它得到了購買力平價 (PPP) 和一係列標準實際 GDP 衡量標準、各種增長率權重以及不同國家的各種匯總的證實。新興工業化國家在經曆了早期的高增長之後，在1997年亞洲金融危機之後，加入了其他工業化國家的大趨勢，這是一個極為印證的曆史趨勢。最近的數據顯示，沒有證據表明新冠疫情後出現任何逆轉。這些結果讓人們對當前世界經濟的困難有了新的認識，並具有許多意義。它們與任何一種觀點相衝突，即即使在主流文獻中也越來越多地提到“長期停滯”，它起源於最近的一些動蕩，例如2008年的經濟崩潰，或者是新自由主義等假定的新積累製度的發生或產生的問題。或金融化。事實上，當前危機的根源在於一個漫長的曆史過程，這個過程很快就進入了戰後擴張的“黃金時代”。

關鍵詞： 發展經濟史增長
致謝
我要感謝 Nobuharu Yokokawa、Robert Wade、Radhika Desai 的熱情支持以及兩位匿名審稿人的評論。所有錯誤都是我自己造成的。

筆記
1 “工業化國家”和“全球北方”等術語的定義見第 7 節“北方的定義”。

2 請參閱本文末尾的數據定義部分。

3 有關這些內容的更詳細討論，請參見 Freeman (Citation2016)。

4 澳大利亞、比利時、加拿大、丹麥、芬蘭、法國、德國、意大利、日本、荷蘭、挪威、葡萄牙、西班牙、瑞典、瑞士、英國和美國。

5 該 PPP 美元的幾種不同衡量標準得到維護和公布。在第 4 節“增長的替代衡量標準：購買力平價和麥迪遜統計數據”中，我們比較了結果，表明我們的定性結論得到了所有這些變體的證實。

6 我們在本文中使用了四期移動平均線，大約是戰後商業周期平均長度的一半。

7 “Hodrick-Prescott 濾波器”是一種數據平滑技術，對於生成整潔的趨勢圖形說明非常有用，並且廣泛用於輔助呈現具有周期性波動的數據。然而，它必須謹慎使用，並且不推薦將其用作統計分析工具（Hamilton Citation2007）。
The 60-year downward trend of economic growth in the industrialized countries of the world

https://doi.org/10.1080/2329194X.2023.2214594

Alan Freeman
Received 11 May 2023, Accepted 11 May 2023, Published online: 01 Jun 2023， CrossMark

This report, using data from a range of authoritative sources, studies the long-term postwar economic growth of the industrialised North and shows that this has fallen continuously, with only brief and limited interruptions, since at least the early 1960s. The trend is extremely strong and includes all major Northern economies without exception. It is confirmed by both Purchasing-Power-Parity (PPP) and a range of standard real GDP measures, by a variety of weightings of the growth rates, and a variety of aggregations of different countries. The Newly-Industrialised Countries (NICS), after early high growth rates, joined the general trend of other industrialised countrieds after the Asian Financial Crisis of 1997. It is thus an extremely well-confirmed historical trend. Recent data show no evidence of any post-COVID reversal. These results sheds new light on the current difficulties of the world economy and have many implications. They conflict with any idea that Secular Stagnation as it is increasingly referred to even in mainstream literature, originates in some recent upset such as the 2008 crash, or in the incidence of, or problems created by, a putative new régime of accumulation such as neoliberalism or financialisation. In fact, the roots of the present crisis lie in a long historical process which set in very shortly into the ‘Golden Age’ of postwar expansion.

Keywords: Developmenteconomic historygrowth
Acknowledgments
I would like to acknowledge the kind support of Nobuharu Yokokawa, Robert Wade, Radhika Desai, and the comments of two anonymous referees. All errors are my own.

Notes
1 The terms “industrialised countries” and “global North” are defined in Section 7 “The definition of the North.”

2 See the data definitions section at the end of this article.

3 See Freeman (Citation2016) for a more detailed discussion of these.

4 Australia, Belgium, Canada, Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, Netherlands, Norway, Portugal, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, United Kingdom, and United States.

5 Several different measures of this PPP dollar are maintained and published. In Section 4 “Alternative measures of growth: PPP and the Maddison statistics,” we compare the results, showing that our qualitative conclusions are confirmed by all such variants.

6 We have used a four-period moving average throughout this article, being approximately half the average length of the postwar business cycle.

7 The “Hodrick-Prescott filter” is a data smoothing technique which is very useful for producing uncluttered graphical illustrations of trends, and it is widely used as an aid in presenting data with cyclic fluctuations. However it has to be used with care and its use as a tool of statistical analysis is deprecated (Hamilton Citation2007).