風蕭蕭_Frank
以文會友
德國去工業化給美國製造商敲響了警鍾
吉姆·維諾斯基 (Jim Vinoski) 撰稿人 2024 年 2 月 29 日
德國作為工業超級大國的日子即將結束，瓦盧瑞克 SACA 管道工廠被關閉 鐵路線通向關閉的瓦盧瑞克工廠院子裏的生產設施和舊設備 © 2024 彭博社
幾代人以來，德國一直是製造業強國。該國處於十九世紀工業革命的先鋒地位，在電氣元件製造和化學品生產方麵確立了主導地位。飽受二戰摧殘的該國在馬歇爾計劃的幫助下迅速重建了其製造基地。 盡管先是日本，然後是中國也成為主要出口國，但它仍然是製成品的最大出口國。該國長期以來以其龐大的製造基地所證明的工程實力和高品質而享有當之無愧的聲譽。
現在，隨著德國工業在世界舞台上的競爭日益困難，這種情況正在迅速發生變化。其強大的化學和重工業部門受到的打擊尤其嚴重，目前這些部門正在迅速衰退。主要驅動因素之一是導致能源成本飆升的政策，而德國對於其他主要工業國家來說就像煤礦裏的金絲雀。
德國巴斯夫是該國工業狀況的領頭羊。 該公司長期以來一直是德國製造實力的代表，自 1865 年成立以來不斷發展壯大，在約 80 個國家擁有近 400 個生產基地，同時保留其總部和位於德國路德維希港的龐大多單元生產設施，該設施擁有 200 個獨立的生產車間。 工廠和約 39,000 名員工。 但該網站在過去兩年中出現了嚴重問題。 該公司已永久關閉了那裏的兩座合成氨工廠之一，並閑置了其他幾座工廠，因為它們不再具有競爭力，此舉導致路德維希港 2,500 個職位流失。 巴斯夫2023年銷售額下降21.1%，調整後收益下降60.1%。上周，巴斯夫宣布在路迪維希港進一步節省 11 億美元的成本，這將導致又一輪失業。
巴斯夫並不是唯一一家削減成本和裁員的公司。 德國無縫管生產商瓦盧瑞克 (Vallourec) 於 2023 年底關閉了位於杜塞爾多夫和米爾海姆的工廠。美國盛禧奧 (Trinseo) 關閉了伯倫 (Böhlen) 的苯乙烯工廠和施塔德 (Stade) 的聚碳酸酯生產線，導致美國公司 Olin 關閉了施塔德 (Stade) 的相關二氯甲烷和氯仿生產。 好吧，這一切都是由於高昂的生產成本。 德國湛新去年關閉了其位於漢堡的工業塗料工廠。 就在幾天前，梅耶博格科技股份公司宣布將停止在弗萊堡生產太陽能組件。
許多因素導致德國電力和天然氣成本飆升：例如，俄羅斯入侵烏克蘭和隨之而來的製裁，以及北溪管道的破壞。 但最大的推動因素之一是德國的淨零能源政策“能源轉型”，以及該國快速轉向可變可再生能源、風能和太陽能發電。 它們必然需要備用發電能力，因為風不會一直吹，陽光也不會一直照耀。 這通常由化石燃料或核電廠提供，但德國在 2019 年通過立法，到 2038 年關閉所有燃煤電廠，去年該國關閉了其曾經強大的核電廠中的最後三座電廠（1990 年核電廠提供了 德國電力的四分之一）。 結果，該國被迫以高得多的價格進口電力和天然氣。 德國最近推遲了關閉燃煤電廠的計劃，現在也在計劃新建天然氣電廠，但損害已經造成。 德國現在是世界上電價最高的國家之一。
受此影響，整個德國經濟陷入低迷。 今年的增長預測最近被大幅下調至僅 0.2%，而通貨膨脹率預計約為 2%，這意味著實際的經濟收縮。 其他指標也很糟糕，德國工程公司的訂單和總體外國投資大幅下降。
在美國，德國的工業和經濟困境已轉化為一些短期收益，因為部分被取代的德國工業希望美國尋求更有利的能源成本。 例如，前麵提到的德國梅耶博格關閉太陽能組件工廠，是為了讓該公司能夠專注於其在美國的新工廠。
然而，問題在於，美國在過早關閉煤炭、天然氣和核電站轉而采用 VRE 方麵並不落後於德國多少。 警告
美國國家和地區電網運營商更頻繁地發出有關可怕的潛在後果的擔憂。 例如，管理中西部大部分地區、南部幾個州以及加拿大曼尼托巴省部分地區的電網的中大陸獨立係統運營商定期發布“對可靠性要求的響應”文件。 在上周發布的最新一期的執行摘要中，MISO 首席執行官約翰·貝爾 (John Bear) 寫道：“MISO 和其他實體進行的研究表明，可靠地運行傳統發電廠數量少得多、零發電廠數量多得多的電力係統是可能的。” 碳資源比我們今天擁有的還要多。 然而，正在進行的向脫碳最終狀態的轉變正在對電力可靠性構成重大的不利挑戰。 一個主要風險是，許多現有的可根據需要打開、關閉和調整的“可調度”資源正在被風能和太陽能等具有截然不同特性和能力的依賴天氣的資源所取代。 雖然風能和太陽能生產所需的清潔能源，但它們缺乏保持電網全年每小時可靠所需的某些關鍵可靠性屬性。 盡管一些新興技術有一天可能會改變這種計算方式，但它們尚未在網格規模上得到驗證。 與此同時，建設新的可調度資源的努力麵臨著政府法規和政策以及新能源項目融資的現行投資標準的阻力。 在新技術變得可行之前，我們將繼續需要可調度資源來實現可靠性目的。”
然而，美國大部分地區仍在繼續關閉可調度發電機，並增加更多依賴天氣的可變可再生能源，幾乎不考慮能源可靠性或可負擔性。 盡管電力需求不斷增加，並且預計未來幾年將大幅增加，但所有這一切仍在發生。 製造業回流美國的情況正在大幅增加，而使用雲和人工智能的高耗電計算機應用程序的使用量也在猛增。 現在正是減少發電能力的錯誤時機，但這正是美國許多州和地區電網運營商正在做的事情，正如電網專家兼作家 Meredith Angwin 在她的新書《短路電網：電網》中詳細解釋的那樣 我們電網隱藏的脆弱性。
製造商對電力可靠性和可承受性有著獨特的需求，因為許多行業的商業模式依賴於通過幾乎全年每天 24 小時運行來最大化產量。 然而，盡管政策製定者要求關閉更多化石燃料和核電站，並增加更多間歇性可再生能源，但美國製造商大多保持沉默。 也許來自德國的持續壞消息會改變這一點。
本文已更新，修正了巴斯夫路德維希港工廠關閉的氨裝置數量和取消的位置。
吉姆·維諾斯基
我在製造業的“戰壕”工作了數十年，專注於工程、運營和管理。
German Deindustrialization Is A Wake-Up Call For U.S. Manufacturers
Jim Vinoski Contributor
Rail lines lead to production facilities and old equipment in a yard at the closed Vallourec © 2024 BLOOMBERG For generations, Germany has been a manufacturing powerhouse. The country was in the vanguard of the industrial revolution in the nineteenth century, establishing dominant positions in electrical components manufacturing and chemical production. Devastated by WWII, with the help of the Marshall plan the country quickly rebuilt its manufacturing base afterwards. It remained a top exporter of manufactured goods even as first Japan then China rose to become major exporters as well. The country has long enjoyed a well-deserved reputation for engineering prowess and high quality that was demonstrated across its huge manufacturing base.
Now that picture is changing rapidly, as German industry increasingly struggles to compete on the world stage. Particularly hard hit are its mighty chemical and heavy industry sectors, which are now in rapid decline. One of the main drivers is policies that have made energy costs skyrocket, and there Germany serves as a canary in the coal mine for other leading industrial nations.
Germany’s BASF is a bellwether for the state of the country’s industry. The company has long been representative of Germany’s manufacturing prowess, having grown since its founding in 1865 to encompass nearly 400 production sites in about 80 countries, while maintaining its headquarters and a sprawling multi-unit production facility in Ludwigshafen, Germany, which houses 200 separate plants and about 39,000 employees. But that site is where serious problems have arisen in the past two years. The company has permanently closed one of two ammonia units there and has idled other several other units as well because they’re no longer competitive, moves that cost 2,500 positions in Ludwigshafen. BASF’s sales were down 21.1% in 2023, and adjusted earnings fell 60.1%. In the last week, BASF announced a further $1.1 billion in cost savings efforts at Ludiwigshafen, which will lead to another round of job losses.
BASF has not been alone in cutting costs and jobs. German seamless pipe producer Vallourec closed its plants in Düsseldorf and Mülheim in late 2023. U.S.-based Trinseo closed a styrene facility in Böhlen and a polycarbonate line in Stade, causing fellow American firm Olin to shut down related methylene chloride and chloroform production in Stade as well, all due to high production costs. Germany’s Allnex closed its industrial coatings plant in Hamburg last year. And just days ago, Meyer Burger Technology AG announced it was discontinuing production of solar modules in Freiburg.
Many factors contribute to the skyrocketing costs in Germany for electricity and natural gas: Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and the resultant sanctions, as well as the destruction of Nord Stream pipelines, for example. But one of the biggest drivers has been Germany’s net-zero energy policy, Energiewende, and the country’s rapid move to variable renewables, wind and solar, for electric generation. They necessarily require backup generating capacity, since the wind doesn’t blow and the sun doesn’t shine all the time. That’s usually provided by fossil fuel or nuclear power plants, but Germany passed legislation in 2019 to shut down all its coal plants by 2038, and last year the country shuttered the last three plants in its once-formidable nuclear fleet (in 1990 nuclear provided a quarter of Germany’s electricity). As a result, the country has been forced to import electricity and natural gas at substantially higher prices. Germany has recently been delaying planned closures of coal plants and is now also planning new gas plants as well, but the damage has been done. Germany now has some of the highest prices for electricity in the world.
As a result, the entire German economy is in the doldrums. Growth forecasts for this year were recently slashed to just 0.2%, and as inflation is forecast to come in at about 2%, that implies actual economic contraction. Other indicators are also dire, with orders at German engineering firms and overall foreign investment dropping dramatically.
Here in the U.S., Germany’s industrial and economic woes have translated into some short-term gains, as part of the displaced German industries look to America seeking more favorable energy costs. For example, the solar module factory closure by Meyer Burger in Germany mentioned earlier was done to allow the company to focus on its new U.S. facilities.
The problem, however, is that the U.S. isn’t that far behind Germany in prematurely shutting down coal, gas and nuclear power plants in favor of VREs. Warnings about the dire potential consequences have been coming from America’s national and regional grid operators more frequently. For example, the Midcontinent Independent System Operator, which manages electric grids in much of the Midwest, several southern state, and part of Manitoba, Canada, issues a periodic “Response to the Reliability Imperative” document. In the executive summary of its most recent installment issued just last week, MISO’s CEO John Bear wrote, “Studies conducted by MISO and other entities indicate it is possible to reliably operate an electric system that has far fewer conventional power plants and far more zero-carbon resources than we have today. However, the transition that is underway to get to a decarbonized end state is posing material, adverse challenges to electric reliability. A key risk is that many existing ‘dispatchable’ resources that can be turned on and off and adjusted as needed are being replaced with weather-dependent resources such as wind and solar that have materially different characteristics and capabilities. While wind and solar produce needed clean energy, they lack certain key reliability attributes that are needed to keep the grid reliable every hour of the year. Although several emerging technologies may someday change that calculus, they are not yet proven at grid scale. Meanwhile, efforts to build new dispatchable resources face headwinds from government regulations and policies, as well as prevailing investment criteria for financing new energy projects. Until new technologies become viable, we will continue to need dispatchable resources for reliability purposes.”
Yet most of America is forging ahead with shuttering its dispatchable generators and adding more weather-dependent VREs nonetheless, with almost no regard to energy reliability or affordability. All that is occurring even as demand for electricity is on the rise and is expected to increase dramatically in coming years. Reshoring of manufacturing to the U.S. is picking up substantially, while the use of power-hungry computer applications using the Cloud and AI is skyrocketing. Now is exactly the wrong time to be decreasing generating capacity for electricity, yet that’s exactly what many of America’s state and regional grid operators are doing, as explained in great detail by grid expert and author Meredith Angwin in her recent book Shorting the Grid: The Hidden Fragility of our Electric Grid.
Manufacturers have a unique need for power reliability and affordability, as many industries’ business models rely on maximizing production output by operating 24 hours a day nearly year-round. Yet there’s been mostly silence from U.S. manufacturers even while policymakers have mandated ever more closures of fossil fuel and nuclear power plants, and ever more additions of intermittent VREs. Perhaps the continuing bad news out of Germany will change that.
This article has been updated with correction on the number of ammonia units that were shut down and positions that were eliminated at the BASF facility in Ludwigshafen.
I've spent decades in the "trenches" of manufacturing, focused on engineering, operations, and management.
