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烏克蘭戰爭與大國競爭
https://issuu.com/esdu/docs/esdu_2022_3/s/17249424
歐洲安全與防務聯盟 歐洲安全與防務聯盟 第 44 期
歐洲安全與防務聯盟
摘自歐洲安全與防務聯盟第 44 期，第 38 頁
文章來自：歐洲安全與防務聯盟第 44 期
歐洲的軍事機動性...
歐洲有可能成為三巨頭的玩具 烏克蘭戰爭和大國競爭
作者：Harald Kujat，將軍（退役）、前德國國防部長、前北約軍事委員會主席，Lögow
21 世紀的標誌是中華民國 (PRC) 作為經濟和軍事世界強國的崛起，以及美利堅合眾國 (US)、俄羅斯和中國等大國之間的競爭。 烏克蘭戰爭清楚地表明，隻有中國，而不是俄羅斯，才能取代美國成為世界頭號強國。 美國國家安全戰略 (10/2022) 指出，“中華人民共和國是唯一一個既有意重塑國際秩序，又擁有越來越多的經濟、外交、軍事和技術力量來重塑國際秩序的競爭對手。北京有雄心 擴大印太勢力範圍，成為世界領先力量”。
美國和俄羅斯的野心
美國在烏克蘭戰爭中不言而喻的地緣政治目標是在政治、經濟和軍事上削弱俄羅斯，以便能夠集中力量對抗中國。 對於這場衝突，美國希望將歐洲國家納入一個與對抗俄羅斯同樣團結的合作夥伴和盟友網絡。 在這方麵，北約正在搭建一個重要的橋梁。 美國成功地讓北約與澳大利亞、日本和韓國等地區盟友一起對抗中國。 2022 年 6 月 29 日通過的北約戰略構想指出，它將“解決中國對歐洲大西洋安全構成的係統性挑戰，並確保北約有持久的能力保障盟國的國防和安全。” 俄羅斯希望保持與美國同等的戰略核超級大國地位，減少美國在歐洲 — — 至少在東歐 — — 的影響力，並通過繼續成為不可或缺的原材料和能源供應國來確保其世界強國地位。
歐洲的地位不穩固
能源供應依賴俄羅斯，安全依賴美國，經濟和技術上尤其是數字化上依賴美國和中國，內部矛盾又麵臨著自身的挑戰，歐洲在大國實力計算中處於劣勢。 越來越落後了。 歐洲國家與美國並肩站在一起，聲援哈拉爾·庫賈特·烏克蘭將軍（已退役），該將軍曾擔任國際法軍事委員會主席，因違反國際法而受到襲擊，並於 2002 年至 2005 年在布魯塞爾的北約總部提供支持。 政治、經濟、金融和軍事 1942年出生，加入德國空軍支援國家。 1959 年的歐洲部隊。1980 年至 1884 年間，聯盟 (EU) 打算進一步擴大對烏克蘭的軍事援助，他曾擔任過兩任德國總理，後來被任命為 ISM/成員國和北約武器交付部主任。 他於 1998 年通過在波恩國防部訓練烏克蘭武裝部隊並於 2000 年成為德國首席部隊的訓練而擔任政策總監。 為此，在柏林成立了“歐洲防務聯盟”（CHOD）。 烏克蘭軍事支援團”（EUMAM烏克蘭）和培訓委員會
“烏克蘭戰爭是一個警告信號，隻會產生一個後果：歐洲堅決走上地緣政治自我主張之路，在政治、經濟、技術以及最後但並非最不重要的軍事上。”
兩個成員國將製定指令，盡管這增加了烏克蘭戰爭升級的風險，包括戰鬥的加劇和延長以及可能的擴大甚至核升級。
烏克蘭戰爭對歐洲的影響
在大國地緣政治博弈的背景下，烏克蘭戰爭將歐洲帶到了十字路口。 這場戰爭不僅關係到烏克蘭的安全和領土完整，從長遠來看，它還關係到歐洲大陸所有國家都擁有一席之地的歐洲安全與和平秩序。 然而，這場戰爭對作為工商業所在地的歐洲造成的巨大全球經濟後果正變得越來越明顯。 在針對俄羅斯的“經濟戰”中，歐盟對其實施了廣泛的製裁。 這些舉措的目的是迫使俄羅斯停止對烏克蘭的攻擊，並假設製裁既不會影響能源價格，也不會損害歐洲國家。 事實恰恰相反。 為了消除美國的保留意見，德國已經接受了重大的經濟劣勢。 長期以來，美國看到了合作的風險。
將德國資本和德國技術與俄羅斯原材料和俄羅斯生產潛力相結合。 然而，德國現在已經切斷了來自俄羅斯的能源供應，並通過財政捐贈、武器和軍事裝備的供應，以及對俄羅斯的製裁等方式向烏克蘭提供重要支持。 德國經濟的長期損害，特別是預計今年冬季能源緊急情況的後果以及對德國經濟國際競爭力的影響，也將對整個歐盟產生重大的長期影響。 更糟糕的是，還有針對中國的經濟限製跡象。 如果對德國和歐洲經濟有利的全球化進一步受到限製，將對依賴世界貿易的德國經濟和整個歐洲造成不可挽回的損害，包括大規模的去工業化。 但盡管對俄羅斯的製裁造成了挫折，歐洲仍然是一個經濟力量因素。 因此，對於中國來說，歐洲是否會屈服於美國的地緣政治目標，還是堅持自己的路線，這一問題至關重要。 因為對於中國能否成功取代美國成為世界主導力量，歐洲有發言權。
新的集團和不確定的未來
烏克蘭戰爭鼓勵了相互競爭的地緣政治集團的形成。 隨著美國、歐盟和北約的關係越來越密切，圍繞中國和俄羅斯的第二個地緣政治集團已經出現。 其核心由金磚國家、巴西、俄羅斯、印度、中國和南非組成，目前人口占世界人口的40%（G7+日本：12.5%）。 此外，中國、印度、伊朗、哈薩克斯坦、吉爾吉斯斯坦、巴基斯坦、俄羅斯、塔吉克斯坦、烏茲別克斯坦還成立了上海合作集團。 其他州也想加入這兩個組織。 西方民主國家與歐盟聯合起來，既沒有找到阻止烏克蘭戰爭的方法，也沒有找到遏製烏克蘭戰爭的方法，也沒有通過平衡相關國家的利益來通過談判實現和平。 相反，歐洲大陸的命運將由這場戰爭的兩個主要參與者決定：美國和俄羅斯。 盡管俄羅斯最近在軍事上取得了成功，但它顯然無法實現其所有政治戰爭目標。 美國也無法成功消除俄羅斯這一地緣政治對手。 此外，必須假設軍事上擊敗俄羅斯不符合中國的利益。 美國意識到，中國將利用這樣的發展既可以緩解俄羅斯的壓力，又可以維護自己的利益，但美國無法發動雙線戰爭。
一顆定時炸彈
因此，20世紀90年代“震驚與敬畏”理論的提出者、美國戰略專家哈蘭·厄爾曼就烏克蘭戰爭關切地問道：“美國對中國展開戰略雙線軍事對抗，是否犯了非受迫性錯誤？” 還有俄羅斯呢？” 哈倫將美國的雙線戰略描述為“定時炸彈”。 對於歐洲來說也是如此。 不僅美國政府，甚至歐洲人都明顯低估了他們參與烏克蘭事務的地緣戰略動力。 烏克蘭戰爭是一個警告信號，隻會產生一個後果：歐洲堅決走上地緣政治自我主張之路，在政治、經濟、技術以及最後但並非最不重要的軍事上。
The Ukraine war and the rivalry of the great powers
https://issuu.com/esdu/docs/esdu_2022_3/s/17249424
Military mobility for European...
Europe risks becoming a toy for the Big Three The Ukraine war and the rivalry of the great powers
by Harald Kujat, General (ret), former German Chief of Defence and former Chairman Military Committee NATO, Lögow
The 21st century is marked by the rise of the Peoples’ Republic of China (PRC) as an economic and military world power and by the rivalry between the great powers: the United States of America (US), Russia and China. The Ukraine war has made it clear that only China, and not Russia, can replace the US as the leading world power. The US National Security Strategy (10/2022) states that "the PRC is the only competitor with both the intent to reshape the international order and, increasingly, the economic, diplomatic, military, and technological power to do it. Beijing has ambitions to create an enhanced sphere of influence in the IndoPacific and to become the world’s leading power”.
The ambitions of the US and Russia
It is the unspoken geopolitical goal of the US in the Ukraine war to weaken Russia politically, economically and militarily in order to be able to concentrate on the conflict with China. For this conflict, the US want to integrate the European states into a network of partners and allies of the same unity as against Russia. In this regard, NATO is forming an important bridge. The US has managed to position NATO against China alongside regional allies such as Australia, Japan and South Korea. The NATO Strategic Concept adopted on 29th June 2022 states that it will “address the systemic challenges posed by the PRC to EuroAtlantic security and ensure NATO’s enduring ability to guarantee the defense and security of Allies.” Russia wants to maintain its status as a strategic nuclear superpower equally with the US, reduce the influence of the US in Europe – at least in eastern Europe – and secure its position as a world power by staying an indispensable supplier of raw materials and energy.
Europe’s unconsolidated position
Dependent on Russia for energy supply and on the US for security, depending economically and technologically – especially in digitalisation – on both the US and China, struggling with selfmade challenges due to internal contradictions, Europe, in the power calculation of the great powers, is falling more and more behind. European states have stood shoulder to shoulder with the US in solidarity with General (ret.) Harald Kujat Ukraine, which was attacked in violation served as Chairman Military Committee of international law, and are providing at NATO HQ in Brussels from 2002–2005. political, economic, financial and miliBorn in 1942, he joined the German Air tary support to the country. The EuropeForce in 1959. Between 1980–1884 an Union (EU) intends to further expand he served two German Chancellor’s and military assistance to Ukraine through was then appointed as Dep Director ISM/ arms deliveries from Member States and NATO. He became in 1998 Director Policy through the training of Ukrainian armed at MOD Bonn and in 2000 German Chief forces. To this end, a “European Union of Defence (CHOD) in Berlin. Military Support Mission for Ukraine” (EUMAM Ukraine) and training com
“The war in Ukraine is a warning sign that can only have one consequence: resolutely taking the path to geopolitical self-assertion for Europe, politically, economically, technologically and, last but not least, militarily.”
mands will be formed in two Member States, even though this increases the risk of an escalation of the war in Ukraine, both with regard to an intensification and prolongation of the fighting and a possible expansion or even a nuclear escalation.
The impact of the Ukraine war on Europe
Against the background of the geopolitical rivalry of the great powers, the Ukraine war has brought Europe to a crossroads. This war is not only about Ukraine’s security and territorial integrity, but in the long term it is also about a European security and peace order, in which all the states of the European continent have their place. However, the dramatic global economic consequences of this war for Europe as an industrial and business location are becoming increasingly apparent. In the “economic war” against Russia, the EU has imposed extensive sanctions against it. These were started with the aim of forcing Russia to end its attack on Ukraine and on the assumption that the sanctions would neither affect energy prices nor harm European states. Exactly the opposite happened. Germany has accepted major economic disadvantages in order to dispel American reservations. For a long time, the US saw a risk in combining German capital and German technology with Russian raw materials and Russian production potential. However, Germany has now cut off energy supplies from Russia and is providing Ukraine with significant support – through financial donations, the supply of weapons and military equipment, and not to forget, the sanctions against Russia. The longterm damage to the German economy, in particular the consequences of the energy emergency expected for this winter and the effects on the international competitiveness of the German economy will also have a significant longterm impact on the entire European Union. To make matters worse, there are also signs of economic restrictions in relation to China. If globalisation, which has developed so beneficially for the German and European economies, is further restricted, irremediable damage will result for the German economy, which is dependent on world trade, and for Europe as a whole, including extensive deindustrialisation. But Europe is an economic power factor, despite the setbacks resulting from the sanctions against Russia. For China, therefore, the question of whether Europe will submit to US geopolitical goals or maintain its own course is of vital importance. Because Europe has a say in whether China succeeds in replacing the US as the dominant world power.
New blocs and an uncertain future
The war in Ukraine has encouraged the formation of competing geopolitical blocs. As the US, EU and NATO move closer together, a second geopolitical bloc has emerged around China and Russia. Its core is formed by the BRICS countries, Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa, which currently make up 40% of the world’s population (G7 + Japan: 12.5%). Furthermore, the Shanghai Cooperation Group was formed with China, India, Iran, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Pakistan, Russia, Tajikistan and Uzbekistan. Other states want to join both groups. Western democracies, joined together in the European Union, have neither found a way to prevent the war in Ukraine nor contain it and achieve a negotiated peace by balancing the interests of the powers involved. Rather, the fate of the European continent will be decided by the two main players in this war: the US and Russia. Russia obviously cannot achieve all its political war goals despite its recent military successes. Neither will the US succeed in eliminating Russia as a geopolitical rival. Furthermore, it must be assumed that a military defeat of Russia would not be in China’s interest. The US is aware that China would use such a development both to relieve Russia and to assert its own interests, but that the US would not be able to wage a twofront war.
A ticking time bomb
The American strategy expert Harlan Ullman, author of the doctrine of “Shock and Awe” in the 1990s, therefore asks with concern, regarding the war in Ukraine: “Has the United States committed an unforced error by opening a strategic twofront military confrontation against China and Russia?” Harlan describes the American twofront strategy as a “ticking time bomb”. This is also true for Europe. Not only the American government but even Europeans have obviously underestimated the geostrategic dynamics of their engagement in Ukraine. The war in Ukraine is a warning sign that can only have one consequence: resolutely taking the path to geopolitical selfassertion for Europe, politically, economically, technologically and, last but not least, militarily.
