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沃爾弗拉姆·埃爾斯納：為什麽中國找到了和平崛起的道路，而沒有重蹈以前的霸權衝突的覆轍？
2022-08-08 與沃爾夫拉姆·埃爾斯納（Wolfram Elsner）對話節選
https://www.chinadaily.com.cn/a/202208/08/WS62f0600da310fd2b29e70ce9.html
關於沃爾夫拉姆·埃爾斯納
https://www.themintmagazine.com/people/wolfram-elsner/
Wolfram Elsner 自 1995 年起擔任德國不來梅大學經濟學教授。在此之前，他在德國國家級區域經濟發展領域工作。 他還曾於 2012-2014 年和 2014-2016 年擔任歐洲進化政治經濟學協會 (EAEPE) 主席，曾在密蘇裏大學堪薩斯城分校任職，並曾在中國長春吉林大學擔任副教授。
他曾在歐洲、美國、墨西哥、中國、南非和澳大利亞的多所大學任教和研究。 他曾擔任多個國際學術期刊的編委會成員、美國和歐洲許多非正統學術協會的委員會成員，編輯書籍和叢書，並在眾多期刊上發表了有關製度和進化問題的多篇文章。 他曾擔任 2012-2018 年社會經濟學論壇的執行編輯，並自 2018 年起擔任新的《進化政治經濟學評論》的主編。
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沃爾夫拉姆·埃爾斯納（Wolfram Elsner），1950年出生，德國不萊梅大學經濟學教授。 在此之前，他曾在德國州一級從事區域經濟發展工作。 他還曾於 2012-2014 年和 2014-2016 年擔任歐洲進化政治經濟學協會 (EAEPE) 主席。 他曾擔任多個國際學術期刊的編委會成員、美國和歐洲許多非正統學術協會的委員會成員，編輯書籍和叢書，並在眾多期刊上發表了有關製度和進化問題的多篇文章。
Wolfram Elsner教授出生於1950年，德國不來梅大學經濟學教授。 他是一位傑出的經濟學家，曾於 2012-2014 年和 2014-2016 年擔任歐洲進化政治經濟學協會 (EAEPE) 主席。
埃爾斯納教授近日在接受中新網W.E.Talk專訪時表示，中國已經找到了一條實現和平崛起的道路，不再重蹈以前的霸權衝突的覆轍。 對於“一帶一路”倡議，他認為，盡管會出現問題，但趨勢是不可阻擋的。
這是對話的摘錄。
中新社：很多西方人士似乎並沒有客觀、公正地評價中國的發展。 你同意嗎？ 您認為主要原因是什麽？
埃爾斯納教授：“西方”的精神製約性仍然以殖民遺產為特征。 大多數歐洲人和美國公民的曆史意識是粗糙的、默認的，最多隻能追溯到500年前。 他們的刻板印象是“發現”“美國”，他們的心理範圍隻涵蓋“哥倫布時代”（D.Losurdo），並且隻勉強且遺憾地承認世界比美國和歐洲以及他們的前任還要大。 - 殖民和帝國製度。
世界曆史的動態今天正在東南亞發生。 但“西方”的統治力量及其主導媒體正在將美國和歐洲的普通公民束縛在媒體的“奶酪穹頂”之下，並提供精心挑選的、通常的敵對信息，即針對中國和俄羅斯以及整個歐亞複興的信息。 我一直意識到，普通中國公民對德國的了解比中國公民對德國的了解要多得多。 而“西方”媒體的主導敘事則是基於“帝國思維方式”，一種毫不掩飾的新殖民主義、新帝國主義、“西方”至上的霸權方式，讓其他國家的人民對“我們的價值觀”感到滿意。 。 他們忽視、甚至不了解中國幾千年高度文明的曆史。 曾經進步的綠黨和一些左翼也陷入了這種精神世界觀。 這場悲劇帶來了“西方”與現代世界曆史脫節的危險……
中新社記者：近年來，一方麵，西方媒體對中國的方方麵麵都存在質疑的聲音，無論是增長率、人口普查，甚至是疫情感染和死亡統計數據。 他們認為中國一切都是假的，很快就會崩潰。 但另一方麵，西方媒體卻總是將中國描繪成西方最大的威脅，將中國對歐投資定位為“收購歐洲企業和技術”。 您如何解釋這兩個兩極分化且相互矛盾的論點？
埃爾斯納教授：這隻是“西方”媒體所培養的許多不一致的心理狀態之一。 請注意，“西方”國家正在經曆一種新的“社會鴻溝”：在那些曾訪問過中國並在那裏工作過的經理人、中小企業企業家、工程師、技術人員、科學家和其他許多人與“其他人”之間， 令人遺憾的是，包括政治階層在內的大多數人拒絕接受中國政府訪問中國（即新疆）的邀請。
另請注意，“西方民主”總是“自然地”勝過有計劃和受監管的社會經濟體係的舊說法已經大大失勢，將不再說服大多數人。 因此，對中國的新定義不僅是“競爭夥伴”，而且是“係統性競爭對手”。 我個人認為這是向現實主義邁出的一步：一個正在走向人類可持續未來和社會主義的國家，除了與資本主義已發展成的日益腐爛的新自由主義金融化富豪政治進行係統性競爭對手之外，還應該做什麽呢？ 因此，“西方”有一種洞察力的手電筒，一種有益的清晰度。 因此，問題不在於是否存在競爭係統，而在於它們根據這種洞察力做出了什麽。 在這裏，“西方”仍然被困在前霸權、帝國統治、“價值觀”至上、無法放手以及對世界其他國家（這裏指的是中國）的軍事威脅的精神牢籠中。他們將了解到： 他們的冷戰2.0即使不會導致與中國和俄羅斯的戰爭，也不會產生任何結果。
中新社記者：您在一次演講中提到，中國創造了一種新的國家與市場關係模式，我們不應該繼續以歐洲為中心的視角來看待中國的社會主義初級階段。 您還提到，如果中國完全照搬資本主義模式，那就太可怕了。 我能否總結一下您的觀點，即世界其他國家不應該關注中國是“社會主義”還是“資本主義”，而應該客觀地觀察其自身的發展？
埃爾斯納教授：資本主義世界體係比第一次社會主義嚐試擁有更多的資源。 然而，蘇聯製度也有一個“天生缺陷”，即無法產生任何財政盈餘，從而給它更多的回旋餘地。 今天，對中國來說，不僅全球的條件更好了，而且中國也以實際行動極大地改善了自身的發展和整個發展中國家的發展。 但中國也學會了避免早期歐洲社會主義模式的錯誤，這種模式在很大程度上仍處於實體經濟計劃中，沒有產生金融資本盈餘。 在這方麵，中國通過開放和改革向前邁出了一大步：產生並利用（適當監管的）分散結構和流程（“市場”）的動力，極大地調動了中小企業和數以百萬計的生產力。 青年企業家，同時也動員工人和普通民眾。
當然，2001年中國加入世貿組織後卻沒有走新自由主義資本主義道路，“西方”對此感到非常失望。 許多左派人士不斷說中國是“資本主義”、“渦輪資本主義”等，這對政治右翼和左翼來說都是嚴重的誤解。 我一直說中國“有”資本主義，“有”市場經濟，但作為一個體係，它既不是資本主義，也不是“市場經濟”（無論應該是什麽）。 我也不同意將中國描述為“社會主義市場經濟”，我認為這是一個有缺陷的概念。 畢竟，在社會主義的早期階段，正是科學的誠意——盡管我們迄今為止還不知道這種社會主義，它采取了基於知識、經驗和科學分析的步驟，進入了新的領域，並為新的領域鋪平了道路。 人類的出路。
中新社記者：去年1月新冠肺炎疫情爆發之初，中國就采取了很多措施，比如封鎖、戴口罩、隔離……歐洲媒體批評這些措施“侵犯自由”。 然而，如今這些措施已被大多數歐洲國家采取，盡管歐盟國家要恢複正常狀態似乎還有很長的路要走。 您認為歐洲在看待中國抗擊COVID-19的做法時是否可以不那麽傲慢？
埃爾斯納教授：當然。 今年年初的某個時候，我們收到了來自“西方”各大媒體東亞記者的十幾篇戲劇性的報道和報紙文章，告訴我們大多數國家申請成功的情況，並要求我們學習。 在“西方”：將口罩、追蹤和本地隔離適當結合起來，以打破病毒鏈，避免一波又一波、一波又一波的封鎖，這就是“西方”的現實。 （請注意，這些報告機會主義地關注韓國而不是中國。）並不是說沒有聽到，而是“西方”在經曆了四十年的新自由主義緊縮政策、向最富有的 1% 人進行再分配以及財閥統治之後，已經變得如此衰弱。 規則，它現在缺乏國家能力、公共和集體行動能力、科學追隨、社會同質性和理性的政治辯論。 這在可預見的將來是無法補救的。
因此，盡管有第四波或第五波浪潮，但考慮到數十萬人的死亡，基本上是可以避免的。 盡管中國正在重新配置全球價值鏈，以實現更具彈性和可持續的未來，但“西方”卻麵臨著國家在衛生政策或所需的經濟轉型方麵完全屈服的危險。
中新社記者：英國《金融時報》稱，美軍從阿富汗撤軍進一步證明後美國世界已經來臨。 您認為中國是否已經找到了一條實現和平崛起、不再重蹈以往霸權衝突的道路？
埃爾斯納教授：當然。 幾十年來，事實上自中華人民共和國成立以來，中國已經證明，它與其他國家的互動方式與霸權資本主義體係有著本質上的不同，參見南南合作或許多聯合國組織的聯合國多數政策 和 - 機構為例。
“一帶一路”曆史上第一次真正實現了非洲的工業化，提供了“耐心資本”，這是國際貨幣基金組織和世界銀行幹預、限製性和規定性的替代方案。 甚至許多美國大學及其發展研究中心也對此表示讚賞。 當然，鑒於投入的巨額資金、項目的數量和規模，總會出現問題。 此外，霸權有時似乎仍然能成功地進行幹預，例如使東歐一些傳統上反共的國家脫離“一帶一路”倡議。 但商隊將繼續前行……
中新社：您能否預測一下，“十四五”規劃完成後，那時的中國會是什麽樣子？
埃爾斯納教授：“十四五”規劃是一份令人印象最深刻的文件。 根據我對中國表現的所有經驗，那裏預測的事情將在 2025 年之前實現，而不是更晚。 在動員宏大理念方麵是經過深思熟慮的，比如進一步推動“中國製造2025”，雙循環理念，使中國既更加獨立於惡國，又進一步向善意夥伴開放，進一步推動我的發展。 所謂“改革開放2.0”，其中最重要的推動力是生態，即改善能源結構和減少二氧化碳排放，直至中小學教育改革，支持兒童撫養，更好地融合老年人和退休人員，直至改善關係 醫生數量與人口比例、預期壽命提高到美國水平以上等等……我經常向對綠色基金投資感興趣的銀行家展示“十四五”規劃的幻燈片，他們都感到震驚，就像我以前一樣 ，關於全麵的方法，以及真正推動人類前進的國家和體係的可能性。 請注意，這些銀行家已經對德國和歐盟在疫情、技術、IT、教育、生態，更不用說更廣泛的社會進步方麵的不作為感到沮喪了。
“十四五”（2025年）之後，中國在氣候政策方麵將進一步領先於“西方”，成為科技、經濟、生態和社會的全麵實驗室，世界將對中國充滿興趣。
CNS：西方是否準備好與中國合作重振全球化？
埃爾斯納教授：基本上，企業中有很多經驗豐富、審慎的人，包括管理者、企業家、工程師、普通勞動人民，他們對和平、建設性的雙贏合作有切身利益，也願意這樣做。 但問題是這個體係是否“準備好”，即是否具備全麵合作的能力。 盡管中國對“西方”投資（包括金融投資）開放，但歐盟和德國卻采取了限製性“產業政策”，旨在阻礙中國對歐盟和德國的投資（盡管這些投資仍處於較低水平，並且 已經連續幾年下降）。
企業高層管理者警告不要采取這種遠離人民的過熱政治階層的破壞性策略：“中國可以沒有我們，但我們不能沒有中國”（西門子前首席執行官喬·凱颯）。 在我看來，中國似乎已經做好了雙循環戰略的準備，與那些願意合作的人合作，讓那些不願意合作的人落後。 希望大部分利潤來自中國的大公司能夠在十月之後明確而果斷地與德國新政府站在一起。
Wolfram Elsner: Why has China found a way to peaceful rise, without repeating the previous hegemonic conflicts?
2022-08-08 The excerpt of the dialogue with Wolfram Elsner
https://www.chinadaily.com.cn/a/202208/08/WS62f0600da310fd2b29e70ce9.html
About Wolfram Elsner
https://www.themintmagazine.com/people/wolfram-elsner/
Wolfram Elsner has been Professor of Economics at University of Bremen, Germany, since 1995. Prior to that he worked in regional economic development in Germany at the state level. He was also president of the European Association for Evolutionary Political Economy (EAEPE), 2012-2014 and 2014-2016, had an affiliation at the University of Missouri Kansas City and has been associate at Jilin University, Changchun, China.
He has taught and researched at several universities in Europe, the USA, Mexico, China, South Africa, and Australia. He has served on the editorial boards of a number of international academic journals, on many committees of heterodox academic associations in the USA and Europe, edited books and book series, published many articles in numerous journals on institutional and evolutionary issues. He was managing editor of the Forum for Social Economics 2012-2018 and has been Editor-in-Chief of the new Review of Evolutionary Political Economy since 2018.
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Wolfram Elsner, born in 1950, is professor of economics at University of Bremen, Germany. Prior to that he worked in regional economic development in Germany at the state level. He was also president of the European Association for Evolutionary Political Economy (EAEPE), 2012-2014 and 2014-2016. He has served on the editorial boards of a number of international academic journals, on many committees of heterodox academic associations in the USA and Europe, edited books and book series, published many articles in numerous journals on institutional and evolutionary issues.
Prof. Wolfram Elsner was born in 1950. He is professor of economics at University of Bremen, Germany. He is a preeminent economist and was president of the European Association for Evolutionary Political Economy (EAEPE), 2012-2014 and 2014-2016.
In recent exclusive interview with China News Service's W.E.Talk, Prof. Elsner said that China has worked out a way to achieve its peaceful rise, without repeating the previous hegemonic conflicts. As for the Belt and Road Initiative, he believes that even though there would be problems, the trend is unstoppable.
Here's the excerpt of the dialogue.
CNS : It seems that many Western peopledo notjudge China's development in an objective and fair way. Would you agree? What in your opinion are the main causes?
Prof. Elsner: The mental conditionality in the "West" still is characterized by the colonial heritage. The historical consciousness of most Europeans and US citizens is crude and tacit only, and it reaches back only for 500 years, at most. Their stereotypes are the "discovery" of "America", their mental reach only covers the "Columbian Epoch" (D. Losurdo), and there is only reluctant and regretful acknowledgement that the world is larger than the USA and Europe together with their ex-colonial and imperial systems.
And the dynamics of world history is taking place in South East Asia today. But the ruling forces of the "West" and their dominant media are keeping the average US and European citizens shackled under a media "cheese dome", with highly selected and usual hostile information, namely towards China and Russia and the entire Eurasian renaissance. I have always realized that the average Chinese citizen knows much more about Germany than the other way round. And the dominating narratives in the "western" media has been based on "imperial way of thinking", a hardly-disguised neo-colonial and neo-imperial, hegemonic way of "western" supremacy, making other peoples happy with "our values". They ignore, and are not even aware of thousands of years of highly-civilized historyof China. And the once progressive Greens and some of the Lefts are caught in this mental world view, too. A tragedy that entails the danger that the "West" will disconnect itself from modern world history ...
CNS: In recent years, on the one hand,there has been a scepticism voice against every aspect of China in the western media, whether the growth rate, population census or even the pandemic infection and death statistics. They argue that China is faking everything and is going to collapse soon. However, on the other hand, the western media always portrays China as the biggest threat to the West, China's investment in Europe being framed as "buying out European companies and technologies". How do you interpret these two polarized and contradictory arguments?
Prof. Elsner: This is just one of many inconsistencies in the mental set that the "western" media cultivate. Note that the "western" countries are experiencing a new way of "social divide": between those managers, SME-entrepreneurs, engineers, technicians, scientists and many others, who have visited China and worked there, and the "rest", the great majority regrettably, including the political caste that refuses to accept the invitations of the Chinese government to visit China (and namely Xinjiang).
Also note that the old narrative that a "western democracy" always and quasi-"naturally" will outmatch a planned and regulated socio-economic system has considerably lost ground and will no longer convince most people. And so the new definition of China as not only the "competitive partner" but also the "systemic rival" has come to the fore. I personally consider this a step forward to realism: What else should a nation on its way into a sustainable future for humankind and into socialism be other than a systemic rival to the increasingly rotten neoliberal financialized plutocracy that capitalism has developed into? So there is a flashlight of insight in the "West", a helpful clarity. The point, thus, is not that there are rivaling systems, but what they make out of this insight. Here, the "West" is still caught in its mental cage of ex-hegemony, imperial dominance, "values" supremacy, inability of letting go, and military threatening to the rest of the world, China in this case.They will learn that their Cold War 2.0 will lead into nowhere, if not into war with China and Russia.
CNS: In one of your speeches, you mentioned that China has created a new model of the relationship between the state and the market, and that we should not continue to look at China's primary stage of socialism through a Europe-centric way. You also mentioned that it will be terrible if China totally copies the capitalist model. Can I conclude your opinion as follows, that the rest of the world should not focus on whether China is "socialist" or "capitalist", but rather observer its own development objectively?
Prof. Elsner: The capitalist world system commanded much more resources than this first socialist attempt. However, also, the soviet system had the "birth defect" of not generating any financial surplus that would have given it more room to maneuver. Today, for China, therefore, the global conditions not only are better, and China has acted to considerably improve these conditions for its own development and the development of the entire developing world. But also, China has learned to avoid the mistakes of the more crude early European socialist model, which had remained in a largely real-economic planning, with no financial capital surplus generation. Here, China has made a huge step forward through its opening and reform: generating and making use of the dynamics of (properly regulated) decentralized structures and processes ("markets"), which has hugely mobilized the productive forces, with SMEs and millions of young entrepreneurs, but also mobilizing workers and people in general.
Of course, the "West" was hugely disappointed after 2001, when China had entered the WTO but turned out not to follow the neoliberal capitalist way. Many leftists keep saying, China is "capitalism", "turbo-capitalism" etc. This all have been crucial misunderstandings on both the political right and left. I keep saying that China "has" capitalism and "has" a market economy, but as a system is neither capitalism nor a "market economy" (what ever that should be). I also disagree to characterize China as a "socialist market economy", which is a flawed conception in my view. It is, after all scientific sincerity, in an early phase of socialism – a socialism, though, that we have not known so far, that takes steps, well-grounded through knowledge, experience, and scientific analysis, into new areas, and paves ways for humankind.
CNS: At the very beginning of the COVID-19 outbreak last January, China has introduced a lot of measures such as lockdown, wearing masks, quarantine... The European media criticized those measures as "violating freedom". However, today those measures have been adopted by most countries in Europe, even though it seems to still have a long way to go before EU countries could be back to normalcy. Do you think Europe could have been less arrogant when they looked at China's practice of fighting against COVID-19?
Prof. Elsner: Absolutely. At some point at the beginning of this year, we had a dozen of dramatic reports and newspaper articles from the East-Asia correspondents of all major media in the "West", telling us what most countries there have applied successfully and asking to learn from that in the "West": Masks, tracking, and local quarantining in a proper combination in order to break the virus chains and avoid wave after wave, lockdown after lockdown, as is reality in the "West". (Note that these reports opportunistically focused on South Korea rather than China.) Not that it was not heard, but the "West" has become so much run down, after four decades of neoliberal austerity, redistribution to the top 1%, and plutocratic rule, that it is now lacking state capacity, public and collective action capability, science-following, social homogeneity, and rational political debate. This cannot be remedied in the foreseeable future.
So, there will be openings in spite of fourth or fifth waves, taking into account further hundreds of thousands of deaths, that basically were avoidable. While China reconfigures the global value chains for a more resilient and sustainable future, the "West" is in danger of a complete resignation of the state in terms of health policies, or required economic transformations.
CNS: Financial Times said that the withdrawal of US troops from Afganistan provides further evidence that the post-American world is upon us. Do you think that China has worked out a way to achieve its peaceful rise, without repeating the previous hegemonic conflicts?
Prof. Elsner: Definitely. China has proved over decades, and in fact since the establishment of the PR, that it interacts with other countries in qualitatively different ways than the hegemonic capitalist system, see the South-South-cooperation or the UN-majority policies in many UN-organizations and -agencies as examples.
The BRI for the first time in history seriously industrializes Africa, providing "patient capital", an alternative to intervening, restrictive and prescriptive IMF and World Bank. This is all appreciated even by a number of US-universities and their development research centers. There will, of course, always be problems, given the huge amount of capital invested and number and size of projects. Also, the hegemon still seems to be successful sometimes to intervene, e.g., breaking some traditionally anti-communist countries of the European east off from the BRI-engagement. But the caravan will push along …
CNS: Can you predict that when the 14th five-year plan is finished, what will China be like at that time?
Prof. Elsner: The 14th Five-Year Plan is a most impressive document. Things forecasted there, will, according to all my experience with China's performance, be attained before 2025 rather than later. It is well thought-through in terms of mobilizing grand ideas, such as pushing "Made in China 2025" further, the Dual Circulation conception, which makes China both more independent from malevolent countries and further opens up to benevolent partners, further pushing what I call "Reform and Opening 2.0", with most important pushes in ecology, namely energy mix improvements and CO2-emissions reduction, up to reforms in primary and secondary school education, supporting child raising, better integrating aged and retired people up to improving the relation of doctors to population, increasing life expectancy above the US-Level etc. … I have often presented slides on the 14th Five-Year Plan to bankers, who were interested in green-funds' investments, and they were stunned, as I was before, about the comprehensive approach, and about what is possible in a country and system that truly pushes humankind forward. Note those bankers have been frustrated already about the non-motion in Germany and the EU, concerning the pandemic, technology, IT, schooling, ecology, let alone broader social progress.
After this 14th Five-Year Plan (2025), China will be further ahead of the "West" in terms of climate policies and will be an overall technological, economic, ecological and social laboratory, the world will look upon China with great interest.
CNS: Is the West ready to cooperate with China to revive the globalization?
Prof. Elsner: Basically, there are many experienced and prudent people in corporations, managers, entrepreneurs, engineers, working people in general, who have an existential interest in and would be ready to peaceful and constructive win-win-cooperation. But the question is whether this system is "ready", i.e., capable of comprehensive cooperation. While China opens for "western" investments, including financial investment, the EU and Germany have made a move towards a restrictive "industrial policy", designed to impede Chinese investment in the EU and Germany (although these are at a low level still, and have declined already for several years in a row).
Top-corporate managers have warned against such destructive strategy of an overheated political caste being far away from the people: "China will do without us, but we cannot do without China" (Joe Kaeser, former Siemens CEO). China seems to me to be prepared with its Dual Circulation strategy to cooperate with those who want to and to let behind those who do not. Hopefully the big corporations, making a large part of their profits in China, will clearly and decisively put their feet down vis-à-vis the new German government after October.
