崛起的中國如何重塑全球政治

崛起的中國如何重塑全球政治

https://www.worldpoliticsreview.com/how-a-rising-china-has-remade-global-politics/

編輯 2023年7月17日 2023年7月19日

2021 年 6 月 28 日，中國國家主席習近平帶領其他高級官員在中國共產黨成立 100 周年前夕的一場盛大演出中宣誓入黨誓言（美聯社照片：Ng Hanguan）。

與任何其他單一發展一樣，中國在過去二十年的崛起重塑了全球政治格局。 自2001年12月加入世界貿易組織以來，中國迅速將其經濟從一個低成本的“世界工廠”轉變為全球先進技術的領導者。 一路走來，它改變了全球供應鏈，也改變了國際外交，利用其成功成為亞洲、非洲和拉丁美洲新興經濟體的主要貿易和發展夥伴。

但北京作為全球大國的崛起也造成了緊張局勢。 早期對中國融入全球經濟將導致國內自由化和國外溫和化的預期已被證明過於樂觀，特別是自習近平主席於 2012 年上台以來。相反，習近平監督了國內對異見的鎮壓，以支撐 擴大中國共產黨對中國社會各個方麵的控製。 必要的經濟改革已被擱置一旁，而強製技術轉讓和對在華經營的外國公司的其他限製等不公平貿易做法導致了與美國的貿易戰，並受到歐洲越來越多的批評。

與此同時，中國的“悄然崛起”已被更直言不諱地表達大國抱負和更加自信的國際姿態所取代，特別是在中國南海的領土爭端方麵。 再加上北京的軍事現代化計劃，亞洲和美國都注意到中國的經濟實力將產生地緣政治影響。 COVID-19大流行最初為北京擴大影響力提供了機會，但隨後人們對中國作為負責任的利益相關者的信譽以及推動其經濟成功故事的供應鏈的未來提出了質疑。

由於習近平第三次連任中共中央總書記和國家主席，打破了中國改革開放期間創下的兩屆任期的先例，所有這些趨勢現在可能會積聚勢頭。 但隨著習近平將權力集中到自己手中，他也對中國的成功和失敗承擔了更大的責任。 隨著挑戰越來越多，很難保證中國的崛起不會因為北京與華盛頓競爭的外部壓力或自身的錯誤和非受迫性錯誤而失去動力。 去年中國各地的抗議活動導致習近平放棄了嚴厲的“零新冠”政策，這提醒人們，盡管他和中共掌握了權力，但他們最終仍然要對中國人民負責。

WPR 詳細報道了中國的崛起，並繼續研究有關接下來會發生什麽的關鍵問題。 麵對人口和環境挑戰以及與美國的競爭，中國能否維持其經濟奇跡？ 在“一帶一路”倡議似乎已經走到盡頭的情況下，中國將在國際發展中發揮什麽作用？ 中國是在尋求重塑基於規則的國際體係以更好地反映其利益，還是北京的目標是破壞和取代它？ 以下是 WPR 報道的一些要點。

我們最新的報道：全球秩序對於美國和中國來說可能已經足夠大

中美競爭將塑造21世紀國際政治的進程。 因此，從美國國務卿安東尼·布林肯和中國國家主席習近平最近的會晤中可以收集到的有關雙邊關係狀況的任何見解都值得評估。 收集到的見解令人鼓舞。

習近平領導下的中國

許多西方觀察家認為，中國融入全球經濟將導致國內自由化和國際溫和化。 相反，在習近平的領導下，中國將經濟崛起的成果裝進自己的口袋，同時鎮壓前任領導人領導下出現的一些國內異議。 他現在已第三次擔任黨主席、國家主席，打破了中國改革開放以來兩屆任期的先例。 但隨著國內外挑戰不斷堆積，他可能會發現當前的形勢更加難以應對。

習近平史無前例的第三個國家主席任期對中國國內外的政治優先事項意味著什麽，《習近平謝幕》。

中國最近的反封鎖抗議活動與 1989 年在天安門廣場達到頂峰的抗議活動有何不同和相似之處，中國短暫的零新冠抗議活動可能會產生持久影響
最近針對零新冠措施的抗議活動如何將北京的大流行信息暴露為宣傳，在中國的新冠抗議活動中揭穿了習近平的勝利主義謊言
為什麽習近平的權力鞏固對中國乃至世界來說都是一個問題，《習近平對權力的掌控現在是中國最大的國內挑戰》

中美關係與競爭

奧巴馬政府結束後，隨著對中國崛起的樂觀情緒開始消退，美國外交政策界很快就需要對北京采取強硬態度達成了兩黨共識。 但在呼籲兩國經濟更廣泛“脫鉤”的背景下，前總統唐納德·特朗普發起的貿易戰並未取得決定性成果。 自上任以來，拜登政府試圖在開放接觸渠道的同時保持對北京的壓力，但這些努力未能切實改善關係。 最近，拜登團隊加大了對北京的壓力，特別是在決定21世紀全球權力動態的技術競爭方麵。

為什麽美國必須重新考慮在東南亞與中國競爭的方式，因為美國正在東南亞輸給中國
美國及其七國集團夥伴計劃如何對抗中國和俄羅斯，《七國集團現在有對抗中國和俄羅斯的計劃》

中美關係再次緩和，改善中美關係的前景如何

為什麽華盛頓對中國的選擇都不理想，美國對中國沒有好的選擇
外交政策與“一帶一路”倡議
中國對發展中國家的援助和投資有著悠久的曆史。 但其全球基礎設施投資的“一帶一路”倡議不僅進入了亞洲和非洲，還進入了歐洲。 北京越來越多地利用其經濟夥伴關係產生的影響力來推進其政治利益，有時通過抵製和其他脅迫策略來欺淩與之有衝突的政府。 再加上北京咄咄逼人的“戰狼”外交，現在正在引發反彈，損害中國的全球形象和影響力。

中國如何成為海灣國家可再生能源的重要合作夥伴，海灣國家將可再生能源的希望寄托在中國身上

中亞為何成為中國接觸的戰略地區，中國的魅力攻勢凸顯中亞地位的提升

中國如何重塑其作為國際發展夥伴的角色，中國正在尋求再次改變全球發展
為什麽對中國在拉美影響力的擔憂被誇大了，《美國誇大了中國在拉美的影響力》

中國的軍事現代化——以及台灣

中國軍隊曾經是一支人員密集、裝備落後的陸軍，如今已成為一支能夠在陸地、海上、空中、太空以及網絡領域作戰的軍隊。 其尖端設備越來越多地由中國國防工業提供，而中國國防工業本身已成為全球參與者。 這引起了鄰國和競爭對手的擔憂，特別是在涉及入侵台灣以武力統一台灣與大陸的前景時。

習近平第三任期內中國軍事現代化的前景，《習近平：建設21世紀軍隊是中國崛起的關鍵》
為什麽改善與台灣關係的時間不站在中國一邊，等待蔡英文下台解決不了中國的“台灣問題”
為什麽對中國入侵台灣的擔憂被誇大了，中國從入侵台灣中沒有任何好處
為什麽中國恐嚇台灣的企圖適得其反，中國的武力威脅不會讓台灣改變路線
探索更多 WPR 中國報道。

編者注：本文最初發表於 2019 年 5 月，並定期更新。

How a Rising China Has Remade Global Politics

https://www.worldpoliticsreview.com/how-a-rising-china-has-remade-global-politics/

The Editors  Jul 17, 2023July 19, 2023

Chinese President Xi Jinping leads other top officials pledging their vows to the party during a gala show ahead of the 100th anniversary of the founding of the Chinese Communist Party in Beijing, June 28, 2021 (AP photo by Ng Han Guan).

As much as any other single development, China’s rise over the past two decades has remade the landscape of global politics. Beginning with its entry into the World Trade Organization in December 2001, China rapidly transformed its economy from a low-cost “factory to the world” to a global leader in advanced technologies. Along the way, it has transformed global supply chains, but also international diplomacy, leveraging its success to become the primary trading and development partner for emerging economies across Asia, Africa and Latin America.

But Beijing’s emergence as a global power has also created tensions. Early expectations that China’s integration into the global economy would lead to liberalization at home and moderation abroad have proven overly optimistic, especially since President Xi Jinping rose to power in 2012. Instead, Xi has overseen a domestic crackdown on dissent, in order to shore up and expand the Chinese Communist Party’s control over every aspect of Chinese society. Needed economic reforms have been put on the backburner, while unfair trade practices, such as forced technology transfers and other restrictions for foreign corporations operating in China, have resulted in a trade war with the U.S. and increasing criticism from Europe.

Meanwhile, China’s “quiet rise” has given way to more vocal expressions of great power aspirations and a more assertive international posture, particularly with regard to China’s territorial disputes in the South China Sea. Combined with Beijing’s military modernization program, that has put Asia, as well as the United States, on notice that China’s economic power will have geopolitical implications. The COVID-19 pandemic initially opened up opportunities for Beijing to expand its influence, but subsequently called into question both China’s credibility as a responsible stakeholder and the future of the supply chains that have fueled its economic success story.

All of these trends are now likely to gather momentum now that Xi has been reappointed to a third term as Communist Party chairman and Chinese president, breaking the two-term precedent set during China’s reform and opening period. But as he concentrates power into his own hands, Xi also assumes greater responsibility for China’s successes—and its failures. With challenges piling up, there is no guarantee that China’s rise won’t lose steam, due to outside pressure from Beijing’s competition with Washington or mistakes and unforced errors of its own. And last year’s protests across China, which led to the abandonment of Xi’s draconian “zero COVID” policies, served as a reminder that despite his and the CCP’s grip on power, they are still ultimately accountable to the Chinese people.

WPR has covered China’s rise in detail and continues to examine key questions about what will happen next. Can China sustain its economic miracle in the face of demographic and environmental challenges—and competition with the U.S.? What role will China play in international development now that its Belt and Road Initiative seems to have run its course? Is China seeking to reshape the rules-based international system to better reflect its interests, or is Beijing’s goal to undermine and replace it? Below are some of the highlights of WPR’s coverage.

Our Most Recent Coverage:

The Global Order Might Be Big Enough for the U.S. and China

The U.S.-China rivalry will shape the course of international politics in the 21st century. Hence, any insights that can be gleaned on the state of bilateral relations from the recent meeting between U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken and Chinese President Xi Jinping are worth evaluating. And the insights to be gleaned are encouraging.

China Under Xi Jinping

Many observers in the West assumed that integrating China into the global economy would lead to domestic liberalization and international moderation. Instead, under Xi, China has pocketed the gains of its economic rise, while cracking down on what little domestic dissent had emerged under previous leaders. He’s now been appointed to a third term as party chairman and president, breaking the two-term precedent set since China’s reform and opening period. But with challenges piling up at home and abroad, he might find the current landscape harder to navigate.

• What Xi’s unprecedented third term as president means for China’s political priorities at home and abroad, in Xi Takes a Highly Choreographed Curtain Call
• How the recent anti-lockdown protests in China were both different than and similar to the protests of 1989 that culminated in Tiananmen Square, in China’s Short-Lived Zero-COVID Protests Could Have a Lasting Impact
• How the recent protests against zero-COVID measures exposed Beijing’s pandemic messaging as propaganda, in China’s COVID Protests Put the Lie to Xi’s Triumphalism
• Why Xi’s consolidation of power is a problem for China—and the world, in Xi’s Grip on Power Is Now China’s Biggest Domestic Challenge

U.S.-China Relations and Competition

As optimism about China’s rise began to fade at the end of the Obama administration, the U.S. foreign policy community quickly embraced a bipartisan consensus on the need to get tough on Beijing. But former President Donald Trump’s trade war, amid calls for a broader “decoupling” of the two countries’ economies, did not deliver decisive results. Since taking office, the Biden administration has tried to maintain pressure on Beijing while opening channels of engagement, but those efforts have failed to meaningfully improve relations. More recently, the Biden team has increased the pressure on Beijing, particularly when it comes to competition over the technologies that will determine global power dynamics in the 21st century.

• Why the U.S. has to rethink its approach to competing with China in Southeast Asia, in The U.S. Is Losing Ground to China in Southeast Asia
• How the U.S. and its G-7 partners plan to counter China and Russia, in The G-7 Now Has a Plan for Countering China and Russia
• What the prospects are for improving U.S.-China relations, in The U.S. and China Take Another Stab at Thawing Relations
• Why Washington’s options for how to approach China are all suboptimal, in The U.S. Has No Good Options for How to Approach China

Foreign Policy & the Belt and Road Initiative

China has a long history of aid and investment in the developing world. But its Belt and Road Initiative of global infrastructure investment made inroads not only in Asia and Africa, but also Europe. Beijing is increasingly using the leverage its economic partnerships generate to advance its political interests, at times by using boycotts and other coercive tactics to bully governments that cross it. That, combined with Beijing’s aggressive “wolf warrior” diplomacy, is now creating a backlash that is undermining China’s global image—and influence.

• How China has become a key partner for the Gulf states on renewable energy, in The Gulf States Are Pinning Their Renewable Energy Hopes on China
• Why Central Asia has become a strategic region for Chinese engagement, in China’s Charm Offensive Highlights Central Asia’s Rising Profile
• How China is reshaping its role as an international development partner, in China Is Looking to Transform Global Development—Again
• Why fears of China’s influence in Latin America are overblown, in The U.S. Is Overstating China’s Influence in Latin America

China’s Military Modernization—and Taiwan

Once primarily a personnel-heavy and ill-equipped land army, the Chinese military has overhauled itself into a force capable of fighting on land and sea, in the air and space, as well as in the cyber domain. And its cutting-edge equipment is increasingly supplied by a Chinese defense industry that has itself become a global player. That has raised concerns among neighbors and rivals, particularly when it comes to the prospect of an invasion of Taiwan to unify the island with the mainland by force.

• What’s ahead for China’s military modernization during Xi’s third term, in For Xi, Building a 21st-Century Military Is Key to China’s Rise
• Why time isn’t on China’s side when it comes to improving ties with Taiwan, in Waiting for Tsai’s Departure Won’t Solve China’s ‘Taiwan Problem’
• Why fears of a Chinese invasion of Taiwan are overblown, in China Has Nothing to Gain From Invading Taiwan
• Why China’s attempts to intimidate Taiwan are backfiring, in China’s Saber-Rattling Won’t Make Taiwan Shift Course

Explore more of WPR’s China coverage.

Editor’s note: This article was originally published in May 2019 and is regularly updated.