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我親中國？ 我接受這個標簽，前外交部長喬治·楊在權衡中美緊張局勢時說
https://www.todayonline.com/singapore/george-yeo-accepts-pro-bejing-label-1975616
作者：LOW YOUJIN 2022 年 8 月 23 日 在 Instagram 和 Tiktok 上關注我們，並加入我們的 Telegram 頻道以獲取最新消息。
前外交部長 George Yeo（如圖）在 2019 年退休前曾在香港擔任嘉裏物流網絡董事長兼執行董事數年。
前外交部長楊致遠表示，有一種誤解認為中國是一隻會“撲過來吃掉你”的老虎，他說，實際上，它的本性就像一隻熊貓，如果被愚弄，它會嚴重傷害某人。他說美國和中國的領導人都不希望戰爭，但可能會發生意外。
如果戰爭爆發，他說這將使新加坡陷入困境，兩個超級大國之間的衝突也可能對世界造成災難性後果
新加坡——前外交部長喬治·楊 (George Yeo) 表示，美國和中國的領導人可能都不希望發生戰爭，但他們經常被大眾情緒所左右，這可能導致一場對整個世界來說都是“災難性”的衝突。
新加坡國立大學李光耀公共政策學院訪問學者表示，有一種誤解認為中國是一隻會“撲過來吃掉你”的老虎，而事實是它的本性是 一隻熊貓。
“但中國必須表明它的本性不是老虎，而是熊貓，”他補充說。
自 2011 年卸任公職以來，楊先生就中國發表了大量演講和文章。
這位 67 歲的老人在周一（8 月 22 日）接受《今日報》采訪時給出了他的類比，他說熊貓可能看起來很可愛，但“你不能拿它開玩笑。 你可能會受到嚴重傷害”。
楊先生接受了他被一些人視為親北京的事實，他正在接受采訪以配合他的書的發布，這本書名為 George Yeo：Musings，該書基於對資深媒體從業者 Woon Tai Ho 的采訪，並且是 打算成為三本書中的第一本書。
除了擔任新加坡外交部長一職外，楊先生還在其 23 年的職業生涯中的不同時期擔任過衛生、貿易和工業以及信息和藝術部長。 當分水嶺 2011 年大選 (GE) 縮短了他的政治生涯時，他離開了辦公室。
楊先生在 2019 年退休前曾在香港擔任嘉裏物流網絡董事長兼執行董事多年，周一表示，中國是一個古老的文明，具有非常保守的本能，這使得它可以預測。
他說，每個中國朝代都築起了城牆，而且還在資本市場上為好萊塢電影甚至遊戲築牆。
“他們為什麽要那樣做？ 他們為什麽不開放？ 他們喜歡他們的同質性，這使得治理更容易。”
但隨著美國眾議院議長南希佩洛西8月2日訪問台灣後兩個超級大國之間的緊張局勢升級，他表示雙方現在都在計劃戰爭。
“中國當然不希望發生戰爭，但在美國，有些人認為戰爭是不可避免的……如果不可避免，最好早日發生，而不是晚發生，因為中國還沒有那麽強大。”
“
中國當然不希望，但在美國，有些人認為戰爭是不可避免的……如果不可避免，最好早點，而不是晚點，因為中國還沒有那麽強大。
前內閣部長喬治·楊談中美戰爭前景
”
楊先生說，已經有研究表明，如果戰爭宜早不宜遲，中國將血流成河，而美國將受到傷害。
但是，如果再過10年再舉行，雙方都將血流成河。
“關鍵是，你等待的時間越長，大中華區的相對實力就越大，”他補充道。
當被問及他何時預見到兩國之間會爆發戰爭時，楊先生表示，曆史充滿了意外，戰爭“並沒有像我們冷分析所認為的那樣發生”。
這是因為演員們並非僅根據分析采取行動，而是“被大眾的激情所驅使”，並且可能會發生事故。
“
在戰爭與和平中，在最高層，人們可能不想要戰爭。 在最底層，事情發生了，領導人被大眾情緒所吸引，尤其是在印度和美國這樣喧鬧的民主國家。
前內閣部長喬治·楊
“在戰爭與和平中，在高層，人們可能不想要戰爭。在底層，事情發生了，領導人被大眾情緒所左右，尤其是在印度和美國這樣喧鬧的民主國家，”楊先生說。
“中國紀律嚴明得多，他們控製著媒體，如果有必要，他們可以降低公眾溫度。如果需要，他們可以提高溫度，”他補充說。
“但在西方和印度，有時你會被公眾情緒所引導。中國必須在他們自己的計算中考慮到這一點，其他人的行為不像你。因此，你不能誤讀他們對你行為的反應。”
楊先生表示，如果美國總統拜登是一位“更強大的領導人”，佩洛西夫人訪問台灣本可以避免。
中國認為台灣是一個分裂的省份，根據美國承認的一個中國政策，台灣應該是其領土的一部分，但條件是未經雙方同意不得改變現狀。
美國對中國入侵台灣時是否介入保衛台灣采取“戰略模糊”態度。
政治分析人士此前告訴《今日報》，中國認為佩洛西夫人此行是一種政治恐嚇，是對其主權和領土完整的不尊重。
因此，如果戰爭爆發，楊先生表示，美國和中國都知道這將是“對整個世界而言都是災難性的，而不僅僅是對兩國而言”。
他補充說，這也將使新加坡處於非常緊張的境地。
“首先，我們與台灣有著特殊的關係。 我們那裏有人。 我想如果我在 Mindef（國防部），我就會製定應急計劃。”
而美國在新加坡擁有艦船和飛機，是否允許西方強國繼續利用新加坡將成為一個問題。
“我不在政府工作，但我毫不懷疑我們有很多人花很多時間思考這個問題，並擔心這個問題，”他說。
不要對快照做出判斷
關於新加坡對俄羅斯入侵烏克蘭的反應，楊先生表示，當出現“大人物毆打小人物的快照”時，人們很自然地會對受害者表示同情，尤其是對於小國新加坡而言。但他說，從更大的背景來看，現實並非如此簡單。
《今日報》此前曾報道，擁有約 4300 萬人口的比緬甸略小的烏克蘭希望加入由歐洲和北美 30 個國家組成的軍事聯盟北約，但俄羅斯擔心任何此類舉動都會打破全球力量平衡 它。
“事情以這種方式發生是有原因的，”楊先生說。 “我不同意大佬會這樣反應，但看到整個視頻，我能理解大佬為什麽要付出高昂的代價，才會做出這樣的舉動。”
他又打個比方說，當發生機動車事故時，播放整個視頻很重要，“否則，你就是在根據快照做出判斷”。
楊先生對新加坡政府對俄羅斯實施製裁而不是等待聯合國安理會做出決定感到驚訝，因為這“打破了一個危險的先例”。
“但隨後的論點是，俄羅斯擁有否決權（作為安理會成員）......（而且它）永遠不會同意對自己實施製裁。 所以我們必須表明立場。”
他補充說，即使美國不對新加坡施加壓力，“我們也會感受到壓力”，因為新加坡在金融部門和軍事硬件等領域對美國的依賴。
當時的問題是，新加坡是否應該超越發表強硬聲明對俄羅斯實施製裁。
“當我們決定製裁時，製裁的範圍有多大？ 我知道我們的製裁非常有限，”他說。
“最後……我認為這是一種妥協。 他們（政府）不想走得太遠。 但同時，遇到這樣的事情不表態，我們以後會後悔的。
“所以有時候，巧妙地處理它並不能取悅任何人。 但以這種或另一種方式做更多的事情可能會給我們自己帶來更大的成本。”
老葉歸根
當TODAY談到中國對楊先生的重要性時，他回應說，中國人有句老話，葉老了，又回到了根。
他談到了他父親的情況，他的“中國性”隨著年齡的增長而變得更加強烈，並舉了一個例子，說明年長的父親如何在一次奧運會上為中國隊加油。
“他就是這麽覺得的。 隨著年齡的增長，您的傳統意識和血統意識會變得更強。”
當《今日報》指出，一些年輕的新加坡華人可能更認同自己的國籍而不是種族時，楊先生說：“在新加坡，你可以這麽說。
“如果你是在美國的新加坡華人，你會更強烈地感受到自己的華人氣質，因為別人看到你的華人氣質，而你無法逃避。”
今年 3 月初，福克斯新聞主持人塔克卡爾森 (Tucker Carlson) 在他的 Facebook 頁麵上分享了一段視頻，楊先生還被問及有關美國資助烏克蘭生物項目的說法。
在帖子的標題中，他隻是寫道：“來自一個意想不到的地方”，由於視頻剪輯已經被發現是假的，這引起了網絡社區多個部分的批評。
楊先生澄清說，他並不是說他同意該視頻的信息，而隻是覺得它很吸引人，因為“通常非常反華的卡爾森先生站在了中國一邊”。
當被問及楊先生關於中國的言論，加上他在社交媒體上發表的有關中國的帖子，是否會被某些人視為“親中國”時，楊先生沒有表示反對。
“好吧，我接受了。 但我希望那些人會讀我的書，以及接下來的兩本書，然後對我是誰有一個全麵的評價。”
Me pro-China? I accept the label, says ex-foreign minister George Yeo as he weighs in on Sino-US tensions
https://www.todayonline.com/singapore/george-yeo-accepts-pro-bejing-label-1975616
BY LOW YOUJIN August 23, 2022 Follow us on Instagram and Tiktok, and join our Telegram channel for the latest updates.
Former foreign affairs minister George Yeo (pictured) was based in Hong Kong for several years as chairman and executive director of Kerry Logistics Network before he retired in 2019.
- Former foreign affairs minister George Yeo said there is a misperception that China is a tiger that will "leap at you and eat you up”
- Its nature, in reality, is that of a panda that will maul someone badly if fooled around with, he said
- He said neither leaders in the US or China hope for war, but accidents can happen
- And if war breaks out, he said it would leave Singapore in a tight spot
- The conflict between the two superpowers could have cataclysmic consequences for the world as well
The visiting scholar at the Lee Kuan Yew School of Public Policy of the National University of Singapore said there is a misperception that China is a tiger that will “leap at you and eat you up”, when the reality is that its nature is that of a panda.
"But China has got to signal that its nature is not that of a tiger, but a panda," he added.
Since he left public office in 2011, Mr Yeo has spoken and written extensively on China.
In his analogy, which the 67-year-old gave during an interview with TODAY on Monday (Aug 22), he said that the panda may look cute, but “you don’t fool around with it. You can be badly mauled”.
Mr Yeo, who accepted that he is seen as being pro-Beijing by some, was giving an interview to coincide with the launch of his book, titled George Yeo: Musings, which is based on interviews with veteran media practitioner Woon Tai Ho and is intended to be the first of three books.
Aside from his last post as Singapore's foreign affairs minister, Mr Yeo has also been minister for health, trade and industry, and information and the arts at various points of his 23-year career. He left office when the watershed 2011 General Election (GE) cut short his political career.
Mr Yeo, who was based in Hong Kong for several years as chairman and executive director of Kerry Logistics Network before he retired in 2019, said on Monday that China is an old civilisation with very conservative instincts that makes it predictable.
Every Chinese dynasty, he said, has built walls, and it continues to do so in the capital market, for Hollywood movies and even games.
“Why do they do that? Why don’t they open up? They like their homogeneity, this makes it easier to govern.”
But with tensions between the two superpowers rising after US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi visited Taiwan on Aug 2, he said that both sides are now planning for war.
“China, for sure, doesn’t wish it, but in the US, there are people who think that war is inevitable… And if it is inevitable, better to have it earlier than later, when China is not as strong.''
“China, for sure, doesn’t wish it, but in the US, there are people who think that war is inevitable…And if it is inevitable, better to have it earlier than later, when China is not as strong.Former Cabinet minister George Yeo on the prospect of war between China and the United States”
Mr Yeo said studies have been done, which indicated that if a war is held sooner rather than later, China will be badly bloodied, while the US will be hurt.
However, if it is held 10 years from now, both sides will be badly bloodied.
“The point is, the longer you wait, the greater China’s relative strength is,” he added.
When asked when he foresaw war between the two nations breaking out, Mr Yeo said that history is full of surprises and that war “doesn't happen in the way we think it would, by cold analysis”.
This is because the actors do not act on the basis of analysis alone, but rather, are “driven by mass passions” and accidents can happen.
“In war and peace, at the top, people may not want war. At the bottom, things happen and leaders are pulled by mass emotions, particularly in boisterous democracies, like India and US.Former Cabinet minister George Yeo”
"China is much more disciplined, they control the media, they can lower public temperature, if they have to. They can raise it, if they need to," he added.
"But in the West and India, sometimes you are led by public emotions. China has to factor this in their own calculations, that others don’t behave like you. Therefore, you must not misread their reactions to your actions."
Mr Yeo said that Mrs Pelosi’s visit to Taiwan could have been prevented if US President Joe Biden was a “stronger leader”.
China considers Taiwan a breakaway province that should be part of its territory under the one-China policy, which the US recognises, with the proviso that the status quo should not be altered without the consent of both parties.
The US adopts an attitude of "strategic ambiguity" as to whether it would intervene to defend Taiwan in the event of an invasion by China.
Should war break out, as a result, Mr Yeo said that both the US and China know it will be “cataclysmic for the entire world, not just for the two countries”.
This would also leave Singapore in a very tight position, he added.
“To begin with, we have a special relationship with Taiwan. We have people there. I think if I were in Mindef (the Ministry of Defence), I’ll be having contingency planning.”
And as the US has ships and aircraft in Singapore, it will become a question of whether to allow the Western power to continue using the country.
“I’m not in Government, but I have no doubts we have a lot of people spending a lot of time thinking about this, and worrying about this,” he said.
DON'T MAKE JUDGEMENTS ON SNAPSHOTS
On Singapore’s response to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, Mr Yeo said that when there is a “snapshot of a big guy beating up a small guy”, it is natural to feel sympathetic for the victim, particularly so for tiny Singapore.
But the reality is not so simple when viewed in a larger context, he said.
TODAY previously reported that Ukraine, a nation slightly smaller than Myanmar with about 43 million people, wanted to join Nato, a military alliance of 30 countries in Europe and North America, but Russia is concerned that any such move would tip the global power balance against it.
“There was a reason why things happen this way,” Mr Yeo said. “I don’t agree the big guy should react this way, but I can understand when I see the entire video, why the big guy, at a high cost to himself, decides to take this course of action.”
Using another analogy, he said that when there is a motor vehicle accident, it is important to play the entire video, “otherwise, you're forming your judgement based upon a snapshot”.
Mr Yeo was surprised that the Singapore Government issued sanctions against Russia, rather than wait for a decision by the United Nations Security Council, because this “breaches a dangerous precedent”.
He added that even if the US did not add pressure on Singapore, “we would have felt the pressure anyway” because of Singapore’s dependence on US in areas such as the financial sector and military hardware.
The question then, was whether Singapore should have gone beyond making strong statements to impose sanctions on Russia.
“And when we decide on sanctions, how broad are the sanctions? I understand our sanctions are quite limited,” he said.
“In the end… I think it was a compromise. They (the Government) didn't want to go too far. But at the same time, to not take a position when something like this happens, we will regret later.
“So finessing it, sometimes, pleases nobody. But doing it more one way or the other may have resulted in greater costs to ourselves.”
OLD LEAVES FALL BACK TO THEIR ROOTS
When TODAY broached the topic of what importance China has to Mr Yeo, he responded that the Chinese have a saying that when the leaves are old, they fall back to their roots.
He spoke about how this was the case for his father, whose “Chinese-ness” grew stronger in his older age, citing an example of how the older man was rooting for the Chinese team during one Olympic Game.
“That’s how he felt. As you grow older, your sense of tradition and your ancestry become stronger.”
When TODAY pointed out that some younger Chinese Singaporeans may identify themselves more strongly with their nationality than ethnicity, Mr Yeo said: “In Singapore, you can say that.
“If you’re a Singaporean Chinese in America, you will feel much more strongly in your Chinese-ness because others see you in your Chinese-ness, and you can’t escape it.”
Mr Yeo was also asked about a video clip he shared in early March this year on his Facebook page by Fox News host Tucker Carlson about claims that the US was funding biological programmes in Ukraine.
In his caption for the post, he merely wrote: “From an unexpected quarter”, which drew criticisms from several segments of the online community since the video clip had been already been found to be false.
Mr Yeo clarified that he was not saying that he agreed with the video’s message, but that he simply found it fascinating because Mr Carlson, “who is normally very anti-China, took China’s side”.
When probed if what Mr Yeo has been saying about China, combined with his posts about the country on social media, might be seen by some as “pro-China”, Mr Yeo did not disagree.
“Well, I accept that. But I hope those people will read my book, and the coming two ones, and then have an overall evaluation of who I am.”
