風蕭蕭_Frank
以文會友
從礦工到石油巨頭，偉大的商品提款機又回來了
托馬斯·比舍維爾和哈維爾·布拉斯，彭博新聞
Ben van Beurden，荷蘭皇家殼牌公司首席執行官 攝影師：F. Carter Smith/Bloomberg
（彭博社）——就在五年前，英美資源集團陷入了嚴重的麻煩。 這家自然資源巨頭受到大宗商品價格暴跌的困擾，取消了股息，並宣布計劃關閉礦山並裁員數千人。 在緊急融資的傳言中，其市值跌至不足 30 億美元。
本周，對於該公司首席執行官馬克·庫蒂法尼 (Mark Cutifani) 來說，2016 年的考驗似乎就像是一個平行宇宙。 在鐵礦石和其他大宗商品價格上漲的推動下，他宣布了創紀錄的上半年收益和數十億美元的股息。 任何在英美資源集團股價觸底時押注的人都會看到，隨著市值飆升至 550 億美元，股價將上漲 14 倍。
“高商品價格對我們來說非常重要，”庫蒂法尼本周早些時候告訴投資者。 “我們認為這還不夠好。”
英美資源集團就是其中之一：隨著原材料價格飆升，整個自然資源行業正在向股東提供特別股息和回購，礦工、石油鑽探公司、貿易公司、鋼鐵製造商和農民獲得了數十億美元的暴利。 該行業因其對氣候變化的影響以及在大型項目上浪費資金的名聲而受到投資者的青睞，但它再次成為了一台巨大的提款機。
去年新冠疫情造成的經濟低迷帶來的反彈推動了大宗商品價格的爆炸性上漲，因為消費者放棄了度假和外出就餐，轉而購買實物商品：從庭院取暖器到最先進的電視等各種商品。 政客們也在提供幫助，在資源密集型基礎設施項目上投入了數千億美元。
由近二十幾種原材料組成的一攬子商品現貨指數本周飆升至 10 年來的新高，並迅速逼近 2011 年創下的紀錄。全球石油基準布倫特原油再次飆升至 75 美元上方。 每桶銅價回升至每噸 10,000 美元，歐洲天然氣價格達到夏季以來的最高水平，鋼鐵也以前所未有的水平易手。 玉米、大豆和小麥等農產品也很昂貴。
全球最大煉油商之一瓦萊羅能源公司首席執行官喬·戈爾德本周早些時候表示：“隨著全球疫苗接種的增加，需求持續改善。”
即使是動力煤等長期被擱置的大宗商品，也將在 2021 年重獲新生。在發電廠燃燒發電的煤炭，加上大量的碳排放，目前的交易價格創下了 10 年來的新高。
雖然大宗商品價格是經濟好轉的主要原因，但結構性因素也在發揮作用。 礦商和石油公司大幅削減新項目支出，造成供應短缺。 礦業公司首當其衝，因為投資者要求加強紀律，他們從 2015-16 年開始限製投資； 石油公司緊隨去年的步伐，一些主要能源公司本周宣布進一步削減 2021 年支出。結果是，雖然需求激增，但供應卻沒有增加——至少目前是這樣。 石油巨頭也從歐佩克+石油生產國聯盟的工作中受益，該聯盟仍然抑製了很大一部分產量。
英美資源集團宣布派發 40 億美元股息，可能是自然資源行業最引人注目的扭虧為盈的故事，但其利潤與規模更大的競爭對手相比仍然相形見絀。 全球兩大鐵礦石生產商力拓集團和淡水河穀公司上周共同承諾返還超過 170 億美元的股息。 對於投資者來說，還有更多的事情要做，全球最大的礦業公司必和必拓集團和另一家大型礦業公司和大宗商品交易商嘉能可公司尚未公布報告。
這一次，世界上最大的鋼鐵製造商不僅能夠吸收成本，而且還能轉嫁成本。 這個在過去十年的大部分時間裏都陷入危機的行業現在也能夠回報長期遭受苦難的股東。 中國以外全球最大的鋼鐵製造商安賽樂米塔爾公司(ArcelorMittal SA)在五年前被迫出售股票並取消股息，本周公布了自2008年以來的最佳業績，並宣布了22億美元的股票回購計劃。
礦業公司搶走了能源行業的風頭，而能源行業曆來是自然資源行業最大的股息支付者。
盡管如此，大型石油公司還是從 2020 年曆史性的價格暴跌中恢複過來，當時沙特和俄羅斯的惡性價格戰和 Covid-19 大流行導致美國石油基準西德克薩斯中質油的價格短暫跌破零。 在石油、天然氣，尤其是塑料化學品價格上漲的支撐下，埃克森美孚公司、雪佛龍公司、荷蘭皇家殼牌公司和TotalEnergies SE的利潤達到了疫情前的水平。 英國石油公司（BP Plc）是五大石油巨頭中規模最小的一家，將於下周公布業績。
隨著現金流激增，殼牌去年自二戰以來首次削減股息，但現在卻將股息提高了近 40%，並宣布追加 20 億美元的回購計劃。 我們對現金流充滿信心。”殼牌首席執行官本·範伯登 (Ben van Beurden) 表示。 雪佛龍和道達爾也宣布將購買股票。 不過，埃克森美孚仍在舔舐傷口，專注於償還債務。
更加不透明的大宗商品交易世界也從中獲利。嘉能可本周表示，預計交易利潤將高於預期，全球最大的兩家石油貿易商競爭對手維多集團(Vitol Group)和托克集團(Trafigura Group)也受益於石油價格飆升帶來的利潤豐厚的機會。 價格。
農產品貿易商利用價格上漲和中國異常強勁的需求獲利。 全球最大的大豆壓榨商邦吉有限公司 (Bunge Ltd.) 告訴投資者，該公司預計將實現自二十年前首次公開募股以來的最佳每股收益。 美國另一家大型穀物貿易商和加工商阿徹-丹尼爾斯-米德蘭公司(Archer-Daniels-Midland Co.)也公布了強勁的收益。 全球最大的農產品貿易商嘉吉公司 (Cargill Inc.) 的 2021 財年盈利將創下曆史新高。
自然資源繁榮是否能夠持續存在著激烈的爭論。 許多投資者擔心氣候變化使該行業的長期未來難以預測，他們還擔心高管們傾向於在周期高峰期批準昂貴的項目。 礦業高管擔心中國的需求將在某個時候放緩，尤其是鐵礦石。 但目前投資的缺乏可能會支撐銅和石油等其他大宗商品。
但殼牌的範伯登本周早些時候總結了看漲情況：“供應將受到限製，而需求實際上相當強勁”。
From Miners to Big Oil, the Great Commodity Cash Machine is Back
Jul 31, 2021
Thomas Biesheuvel and Javier Blas, Bloomberg News
Ben van Beurden, chief executive officer of Royal Dutch Shell Photographer: F. Carter Smith/Bloomberg , Bloomberg
(Bloomberg) -- Just over five years ago Anglo American Plc was in deep trouble. The natural resources giant, beset by a collapse in commodity prices, scrapped its dividend and announced plans to close mines and cut thousands of workers. Amid talk of an emergency capital raise, its market value fell to less than $3 billion.
This week, the trials of 2016 probably seemed like a parallel universe to its Chief Executive Officer Mark Cutifani. Fueled by a rally in iron ore and other commodity prices, he announced record first-half earnings and billions in dividends. Anyone who took a punt on Anglo’s shares when they reached their nadir, would have seen a 14-fold increase as the market capititalization soared to $55 billion.
“High commodity prices have been very important to us,” Cutifani told investors earlier this week. “We don’t think this is as good as it gets.”
Anglo American is one of many: with raw materials prices surging, the whole natural resources sector is showering shareholders with special dividends and buybacks as miners, oil drillers, trading houses, steelmakers and farmers reap billions in windfall profits. The sector, marked down by investors because of its contribution to climate change and a reputation of squandering money on mega-projects, is again a great cash-machine.
The economic rebound from last year’s Covid slump has powered an explosive rally in commodity prices as consumers forgo vacations and dining out and spend their money loading up on physical goods instead: everything from patio heaters to start-of-the art TVs. Politicians are helping, too, lavishing hundreds of billions on resource-heavy infrastructure projects.
The Bloomberg Commodity Spot Index, a basket of nearly two dozen raw materials, surged to a 10-year high this week and is rapidly closing in on the record set in 2011. Brent crude, the global oil benchmark, has again surged above $75 a barrel, copper is headed back toward $10,000 a ton, European natural gas is at its highest ever for the summer season, and steel is changing hands at unprecedented levels. Agricultural commodities such as corn, soybeans and wheat are also expensive.
“Demand continues to improve with increasing global vaccinations,” Joe Gorder, the chief executive of Valero Energy Corp., one of the world’s largest oil refiners, said earlier this week.
Even commodities long left for dead, like thermal coal, are enjoying a new life in 2021. Coal, burned in power stations to produce electricity, together with huge volumes of carbon emissions, is trading at a 10-year high.
While commodities prices are the main reason behind the turnaround, there are structural factors at play as well. Miners and oil companies have cut spending in new projects savagely, creating a supply shortfall. The miners were first, as they curbed investment from 2015-16 as investors demanded more discipline; oil companies followed up last year and some major energy companies this week announced further cuts in spending for 2021. The result is that while demand is surging, supply isn’t -- at least for now. The oil majors are benefiting too from the work of the OPEC+ alliance of oil producers, which is still holding back a large share of output.
Anglo American, which announced $4 billion in dividends, is probably the most remarkable turnaround story in the natural resources sector, but its profits were still dwarfed by its bigger rivals. Rio Tinto Group and Vale SA, the world’s two leading iron ore miners, together vowed to hand back more than $17 billion in dividends last week. There’s still more to come for investors, with both BHP Group, the world’s biggest miner, and Glencore Plc, another big miner and commodity trader, yet to report.
And for once, the world’s biggest steelmakers were not only able to absorb the costs, but pass them on. An industry that has spent much of the last decade in crisis is now also able to reward long suffering shareholders. The world’s largest steel maker outside China, ArcelorMittal SA, that was forced to sell shares and scrap its dividend just five years ago, posted its best results since 2008 this week and announced a $2.2 billion share buyback program.
The miners have stolen the spotlight from the energy industry, traditionally the biggest dividend payer in the natural resources industry.
Still, Big Oil recovered from the historic price collapse of 2020, when a vicious Saudi-Russian price war and the Covid-19 pandemic briefly sent the value of West Texas Intermediate, the U.S. oil benchmark, below zero. Supported by rising oil, natural gas, and, above all, the chemicals that go into plastics, Exxon Mobil Corp., Chevron Corp., Royal Dutch Shell Plc, and TotalEnergies SE delivered profits that went to pre-covid levels. BP Plc, the smallest of the top five oil majors, will report results next week.
With cash flow surging, Shell, which last year cut its dividend for the first time since the Second World War, was able to hike it nearly 40%, and announced an additional $2 billion in buybacks.“We wanted to signal to the market the confidence that we have in cash flows,” Shell CEO Ben van Beurden said. Chevron and Total also announced they will buy shares. Exxon, though, is still licking its wounds and focused on paying down debt.
The more opaque world of commodity trading has also cashed in. Glencore said this week that it was expecting bigger trading profits than forecast, with rivals Vitol Group and Trafigura Group, two of the world’s largest oil traders, also benefiting from lucrative opportunities created by rocketing prices.
The agricultural traders have cashed on higher prices and unusually strong demand from China. Bunge Ltd., a trader that’s the world’s largest crusher of soybeans, told investors it expected to deliver its best earnings-per-share since its initial public offer two decades ago. Archer-Daniels-Midland Co., another big American grain trader and processor, also flagged strong earnings. And Cargill Inc., the world’s largest agricultural trader, is heading toward record earnings in its 2021 fiscal year.
Whether the natural resources boom can last is hotly contested. Many investors worry climate change makes the long-term future of the industry hard to read and they also fret about the tendency of executives to approve expensive projects at the peak of the cycle. Mining executives fear Chinese demand will slow down at some point, hitting iron ore in particular. But the current lack of investments may support other commodities, like copper and oil.
But Shell’s Van Beurden summed up the bullish case earlier this week: “Supply is going to be constrained and demand is actually quite strong”.
