央行行長聲稱需要提高利率來應對持續的通脹

央行行長聲稱需要提高利率來應對持續的通脹

https://apnews.com/article/central-banks-interest-rates-inflation-ecb-fed-edad92557f07b97a16f98f1fdd161f56

2023 年 6 月 28 日，他們不會放棄大幅加息，指出通脹比預期更持久，但仍淡化加息對經濟衰退的擔憂。 

德國法蘭克福（美聯社）——全球主要央行行長周三堅稱，他們不會放棄大幅加息，指出通脹比預期更為持久，但仍淡化加息對經濟衰退的擔憂。

根據與美聯儲主席傑羅姆·鮑威爾、歐洲央行行長克裏斯蒂娜·拉加德、英國央行行長安德魯·貝利和日本央行行長一夫舉行的小組討論，傳遞出的信息是，在通脹野獸受到抑製之前，借貸成本將保持在高位。 上田。

拉加德在葡萄牙辛特拉舉行的歐洲央行年度政策會議上發表講話時表示：“我認為我們必須像通脹持續存在一樣堅持下去。” “我們必須堅決、果斷、堅定地實現我們設定的目標。”

盡管加息迅速，鮑威爾表示，“最重要的是，政策的限製力度還不夠長。”

鮑威爾、拉加德和貝利強調，強勁的就業市場是通脹的推動因素，通脹已從能源和商品價格轉向服務業。 鮑威爾指出，美國每一個失業者就有 1.7 個職位空缺，而貝利則形容英國勞動力市場“非常非常強勁”。

隨著工人要求更高的工資以跟上更高的生活成本，企業往往通過提高價格來轉嫁這些額外的勞動力成本，這可能導致工資價格螺旋式上升——這是央行行長最糟糕的噩夢。

大多數分析師認為這種螺旋式上升尚未形成。 但由於許多經濟體的工資增長落後於通貨膨脹，工人可能會繼續爭取更高的工資。

今年接任該職務的上田周三是個例外，他表示通脹尚未要求加息。

一些世界頂級央行領導人的言論強調，通貨膨脹的範圍比最初預期的更為廣泛，而且借貸成本可能會比許多人預期的更高，並且維持在高位的時間更長。

這可能會阻礙經濟增長，因為從汽車貸款到信用卡等各種借貸變得更加難以負擔，從而增加了經濟衰退的風險。 全球經濟增長疲軟，歐洲經濟已經連續兩個季度萎縮——這是衰退的定義之一。

但由於失業率處於低位，這幾乎沒有跡象表明真正的經濟衰退。 央行行長們表示，他們的經濟比預期更具彈性，並且預計不會出現收縮。

拉加德表示，歐洲產出的小幅下降更像是停滯，歐洲央行的基線預測“不包括經濟衰退，但這是風險的一部分”。

盡管存在經濟衰退的風險，但央行行長們強調，他們預計將在一段時間內將利率維持在最高水平——可能比活躍的股票和債券市場預期的時間更長。

貝利表示：“我一直感興趣的是，市場認為，在我們麵臨更加持續的通貨膨脹的世界中，高峰將是相當短暫的。”

總部位於瑞士的全球央行組織國際清算銀行表示，自 2021 年初以來，全球近 95% 的央行都加息了，甚至比 20 世紀 70 年代通脹油價衝擊期間的加息幅度還要高。

國際清算銀行在本周的一份報告中稱其為“數十年來最同步、最激烈的貨幣政策緊縮”。

美聯儲在連續十次加息後本月維持關鍵利率不變。 鮑威爾表示，美聯儲官員希望花更多時間看看利率上升對經濟有何影響，暗示他們可能在未來的輪流會議上加息。

“但我根本不會放棄在連續會議上采取行動，”他說。

與此同時，英國央行上周連續第 13 次大幅加息半個百分點，令歐洲央行本月連續第八次加息。 澳大利亞和加拿大央行已暫停加息，但隨後又恢複了加息。

美國的通脹率已降至 4%，使用歐元的 20 個國家為 6.1%，英國為 8.7%，但這仍遠高於銀行 2% 的目標。

提高利率來應對價格飆升會給他們帶來麻煩，包括習慣了多年低利率的銀行可能出現混亂的風險，矽穀銀行和其他美國銀行的倒閉就表明了這一點。

抵押貸款利率上升還會導致房價下跌，並給持有可調整利率抵押貸款的人帶來意想不到的財務壓力，這種情況在一些國家很常見。

意大利總理喬治亞·梅洛尼(Giorgia Meloni)周三對央行的通脹解藥進行了反擊。

“加息的簡單方法似乎並不是正確的道路，”總理告訴立法者。 “人們必須考慮加息對經濟的打擊比通脹更嚴重的風險，以及治療方法比疾病本身更糟糕的風險。”

然而央行行長堅稱，如果通脹失控，痛苦隻會變得更加嚴重。

貝利表示：“我們的工作是讓通脹回到目標水平，我們將采取必要的行動。” “我理解隨之而來的擔憂，但恐怕我總是不得不說——如果我們不讓通脹回到目標水平，結果會更糟糕。”

Top central bankers assert need for higher interest rates to tackle persistent inflation

https://apnews.com/article/central-banks-interest-rates-inflation-ecb-fed-edad92557f07b97a16f98f1fdd161f56

BY DAVID MCHUGH AND CHRISTOPHER RUGABER  June 28, 2023

 

The President of European Central Bank, Christine Lagarde, delivers a speech at the European Parliament in Strasbourg, France, Wednesday, Feb. 15, 2023. Leading global central bankers asserted Wednesday,

June 28, 2023, that they are not backing off their steep interest rate increases, pointing to inflation being more persistent than expected but still downplaying fears of recession from their hikes. (AP Photo/Jean-Francois Badias, File)

FRANKFURT, Germany (AP) — Leading global central bankers asserted Wednesday that they are not backing off their steep interest rate increases, pointing to inflation being more persistent than expected but still downplaying fears of recession from their hikes.

The message was that borrowing costs would stay high until the inflation beast is subdued, according to a panel discussion with U.S. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde, Bank of England Gov. Andrew Bailey and Bank of Japan Gov. Kazuo Ueda.

“I think we have to be as persistent as inflation is persistent,” Lagarde said during the talk at the ECB’s annual policy conference in Sintra, Portugal. “We have to be resolute and decided and determined in reaching the target that we have set.”

Europe's interest rates to stay high as long as needed to defeat inflation, central bank chief says

Fed's Powell reinforces likelihood of more rate hikes because of persistently high inflation

Despite rapid rate increases, Powell said “the bottom line is that policy hasn’t been restrictive enough for long enough.”

Powell, Lagarde and Bailey stressed the strong jobs market was a driver of inflation, which has shifted from the prices of energy and goods to the service sector. Powell noted that there are 1.7 job openings for every unemployed person in the U.S., while Bailey described the U.K. labor market as “very, very robust.”

As workers press for better salaries to keep pace with the higher cost of living, businesses often pass along those extra labor costs by raising prices, potentially leading to a wage-price spiral — a central banker’s worst nightmare.

Most analysts don’t believe such a spiral has developed yet. But with wage growth trailing inflation in many economies, workers are likely to keep pushing for higher pay.

Ueda, who took over the job this year, was the outlier Wednesday, saying inflation did not call for rate rises yet.

The comments from some of the world’s top central bank leaders underscored that inflation is turning out to be more widespread than originally hoped — and that borrowing costs are likely to go higher, and stay high for longer, than many had anticipated.

That could hold back economic growth as borrowing becomes less affordable for everything from auto loans to credit cards, raising the risk of recession. Growth has been weak globally, and Europe’s economy already shrank for two straight quarters — one definition of recession.

But with unemployment at lows, that gives little indication of a true recession. The central bankers said their economies have been more resilient than expected and they don’t foresee a contraction.

The small dip in output in Europe was more like stagnation, Lagarde said, and the ECB's baseline forecast “does not include a recession, but it's part of the risk out there.”

Despite the risk of recession, the central bankers emphasized that they expect to keep rates at their peaks for some time — likely longer than buoyant stock and bond markets expect.

“I've always been interested that the market thinks that the peak will be quite short-lived in a world where we're dealing with more persistent inflation,” Bailey said.

Since early 2021, almost 95% of the world's central banks have raised rates, even more than during the inflationary oil price shocks of the 1970s, according to the Bank for International Settlements, a Switzerland-based global organization of central banks.

In a report this week, the BIS called it “the most synchronised and intense monetary policy tightening in decades.”

The Fed kept its key rate unchanged this month after 10 straight increases. Powell said Fed officials want to take a bit more time to see how the higher rates are affecting the economy, suggesting they could lift rates at alternate meetings in the future.

“But I wouldn't take moving at consecutive meetings off the table at all,” he said.

The Bank of England, meanwhile, surprised with a large half-point hike last week — it’s 13th in a row — and the ECB raised rates for the eighth straight time this month. Central banks in Australia and Canada had paused rate hikes, only to resume them.

Inflation has eased to 4% in the U.S., 6.1% in the 20 countries using the euro and 8.7% in the U.K., but that’s still far above the banks’ 2% target.

Raising interest rates to combat price spikes bring their troubles, including the risk of turmoil among banks used to years of low rates, shown by the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank and other U.S. banks.

Rising mortgage rates also can lead to falling home prices and unanticipated financial pressure for people with adjustable-rate mortgages that are common in some countries.

Italian Premier Giorgia Meloni hit back Wednesday at the central bank’s antidote to inflation.

“The simplistic recipe of raising interest rates does not seem the right path to follow,″ Premier told lawmakers. “One must consider the risks that a rate hike will hit economies harder than inflation, that the cure will be worse than the disease.”

Yet the central bankers insist the pain would only get worse if inflation slips out of control.

“Our job is to return inflation to target, and we will do what is necessary,” Bailey said. “I understand the concerns that go with that, but I’m afraid I always have to say — that it is a worse outcome if we don’t get inflation back to target.”