https://www.atse.org.au/news-and-events/article/the-hon-john-anderson-former-deputy-prime-minister/?
YouTube
Niall Ferguson | The Most Spectacular Historical Folly
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eZNNn6GaCbU&ab_channel=JohnAnderson
John Anderson
84,353次觀看 2023年5月7日
In this clip, Niall Ferguson provides his perspective on the threat of China from an Australian viewpoint. He dispels the myth that China does not have imperialist intentions and argues that we are grossly unprepared for Chinese aggression, given our abundance of natural resources, sparse population, and close proximity to China.
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解說詞
we've been in a relatively peaceful time since the end of the Cold War, but to assume that this will continue indefinitely would be to ignore the
lessons of History. Another obvious lesson of History which has been true throughout the centuries is that if you want peace prepare for war and vice versa, if you want war act like it'll never come
allow your defense capability to atrophy
for an enormous Island
that is thinly populated
in relative terms compared with Asia
that has a vast store of Natural
Resources
for such
an island to be ill-defended
seems like the most spectacular
historical folly
in particular when it is in relatively
close proximity
to a one-party state
with obviously Imperial ambitions
it's quite a long way away
from its principal Ally
the China has Imperial Ambitions is
obvious
the more Chinese leaders in their
speeches say oh China never does
Conquest the more I'm like seriously
you're really going to make that
argument I mean the chig empire was
taking great chunks in Russia
just over a century ago
so let's
get real here
this is not a good situation
it was okay during the chimerican era
when the Chinese were like okay it's no
problem we'll just sell you stuff
cheaply and underpay our workers and
lend you money it's cool we'll buy
Australian stuff not a problem market
price how much do you want that was all
fine but anybody who thought that that
was going to last indefinitely was
dreaming because the whole point of
America was that it was a temporary
illusory relationship and that at some
point china wouldn't need it anymore
and the Chinese are kind of getting to
the point where they do need this
anymore and the bets that we placed from
the Clinton era that they would
liberalize or that the internet would
somehow turn them into a democracy all
that's gone China's actually gone in the
opposite direction politically Xi
Jinping has increased the central
control of the party is reimposing
doctrinal Orthodoxy is cutting out such
free speeches are developed uh in
China's Public Square I mean how many
more flashing red lights do you need
so I think this is kind of getting to
the point of
urgent
and what I see in Australian politics is
a debate that if it was going on
in a Regional Council in Scotland would
seem parochial
a parochialism is stunning
true
a considerable effort's been made by the
intelligence and National Security
community in this country to wakeen
people up to the Potential Threat that
Australia faces but is is Australia in
any way prepared from a naval point of
view
for Chinese Act of aggression no way
so I think this is a moment
of truth actually I said yesterday that
we were entering a new Cold War and we
should stop pretending otherwise
that's right and this cold war will be
very different from the last Cold War it
will be fought in different ways
it will be a an arms race for everything
from artificial intelligence to Quantum
Computing more than for nuclear weapons
or Rockets to the Moon
and the battlefields will be different
when you consider what China's belt and
Road initiative has become it is nothing
less
than velt politique than a global policy
it's far extended beyond the original
concept that was essentially a Central
Asian Indian Ocean concept and it's
become global
and the search for Commodities is not a
trivial part
of what is involved Empires
at some level are about acquiring
Commodities at below market prices
that's kind of what Empires are
or at least not trusting to the market
to deliver you the Commodities so it's
better to earn the real estate and own
the minds control the supply chain and
not be at the mercy of the market or the
mercy of a Navy
which China currently is
the US Navy
so we need to clearly understand the
historical logic of China's expansion to
have security China cannot be dependent
on imported commodities
and market prices
when you think about what that implies
for Australia
it's really quite scary
because Australia is a prize
Australia is a hugely attractive place
from a Chinese vantage point and not
just as a vacation destination or a
place to study and learn English
and I'm stunned by the lack of
awareness
of the Strategic vulnerability of
Australia
when everything should be screaming to
you prepare
thank you