橋水創始人瑞·達利歐 隨著中國實力增長，出現新型朝貢體係

橋水創始人瑞·達利歐：隨著中國實力增長，未來可能會出現“新型朝貢體係”的世界格局

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eXc1ORcamps

2026年5月18日

牛津聯盟。是世界上最負盛名的辯論社團，1823年創立，迄今整整兩百年曆史。愛因斯坦、丘吉爾、尼克鬆、基辛格、撒切爾夫人，都曾站在這個講台上接受犀利的詰問
嘉賓是 瑞·達利歐，全球最大對衝基金——橋水基金的創始人，被稱為"對衝基金教父"。他1949年出生，1975年在曼哈頓的公寓裏創辦橋水，用了四十多年把它做到管理規模超過1500億美元，成為全球最賺錢的對衝基金之一。

0你看到許多領導人前往中國，基本上建立了關係，但這就像
0:088 朝貢體係，而且該地區也承認，他們認為存在一種環境，在這種環境下
0:1717 該地區的國家必須承認並尊重這種力量，所以現在你看到這種情況正在發生，我認為

0:2525 將會有一個演變過程，我認為，嗯，我們正在談論的中國相對實力的崛起

0:3434 正在創造一種局麵，他們將建立一個朝貢體係類型的體係。

2:512分51 好的。我們來談談外部衝突。你把我們這個時代的故事描述為一個崛起的大國挑戰一個現有大國的經典故事

2:592分59 而今天就是中國和美國。曆史告訴我們，這種轉變很少是和平的。所以，當你審視圍繞台灣的緊張局勢時，

3:08 3分8圍繞科技、貿易的緊張局勢，你認為這種競爭是否得到了明智的管理，還是你認為雙方已經陷入了這種對抗的泥潭？

3:16 3分16邏輯？我認為，嗯，中國人，嗯，西方人，嗯，經常，嗯，思考方式非常

3:25 3分25不同。所以，嗯，我從1984年就開始去中國了。

3:30 3分30他們當時沒錢。我出於好奇去了那裏。我愛上了那裏的人民，並且能夠幫助他們發展，在某些方麵也是如此。

3:39 3分39你經常說，你認為中國不是一個正在崛起的大國，而是一個正在回歸的大國。

3:423分鍾42嗯，所以我覺得，如果我要給你們一個關於中國的感覺，嗯，

3:513分鍾51我會說，在國際上，要了解朝貢體係，要了解，嗯，我會稍微談到

4:004分鍾，要了解朝貢體係，要了解儒家思想，要了解百年屈辱。

4:084分鍾8好的？所以，因為這會影響到，如果要用一個詞來形容中國，我會說

4:174分鍾17和諧。你們是如何建立和諧體係的？朝貢體係基本上是這樣描述的，

4:26 4分26 領導人和曆史學家，嗯，我不會點名，但基本上是這樣的：

4:35 4分35 嗯，曆史上他們對待中國的領導人，把中國當作一個家族。

4:42 4分42 他們控製著這個家族。所以，嗯，嗯，中國的“國家”這個詞，在中文裏是兩個

4:50 4分50 字，意思是家族，他們控製著這個家族，而且是自上而下而不是自下而上。所以他們會強調

4:59 4分59 在我看來，美國和西方國家大多是一個個人主義盛行的國家，

5:08 5分8 個人至上，而他們的體係是自上而下的。所以現在當我們回顧曆史，看看……

5:18 5分18 貢賦製度，在我看來，貢賦製度就像是混亂主義。它包含一個

5:24 5分24 等級製度，權力決定等級，你知道自己在等級製度中的位置，並且有一種方法

5:32 5分32 更強大的人應該像對待家族一樣對待較弱的家族。他們有權按照自己想要的方式管理自己的家族

5:41 5分41 他們的家族。所以，這不是為了控製其他家族，而是像對待鄰居一樣處理它，進行貿易等等

5:50 5分50 一種秩序感，如果你更強大，那麽就有一種好方法來對待較弱的，反之亦然。這就是

5:58 5分58 這套體係的運作方式。從某種意義上說，從1848年到1949年這長達一百年的屈辱，是

6:07 6分7 權力的喪失，以及他們理所當然地認為的外國勢力入侵，然後是逐步改善的進程。所以

6:15 6分15 存在一種傾向，即能夠遵循這些軌跡。這些

6:23 6分23 軌跡，嗯，你可以看到它們追溯到公元前221年統一中國的起源。你可以看到這些

6:31 6分31 循環往複，都是類似的循環。嗯，我認為這就是將會發生的事情的本質。所以，當我們討論你提出的問題時，

6:40 6分40關於“我們是否會因為台灣而開戰”的問題，毫無疑問，嗯，在他們看來，嗯，而且

6:48 6分48 秒，自從二戰結束以來，就一直有人說台灣是中國的一部分，實行一個中國政策，嗯，而且

6:57 6分57這一點不會被否認，等等。現在，我不認為這個問題會成為戰爭，這是一個演變的問題。我認為

7:05 7分5目前，我不認為會是戰爭。這兩個社會都會各自發展，並且會相互互動。我們

7:13 7分13身處一個新世界，他們意識到存在著不同類型的戰爭。有貿易戰，有技術戰，

橋水創始人瑞·達利歐：隨著中國實力增長，未來可能會出現“新型朝貢體係”的世界格局

這是一場金融戰爭，

7:22 7分22 所有這些。以及對方的任何弱點或依賴關係，他們彼此之間的任何弱點或依賴關係。

7:30 7分30 彼此都被視為施加影響力的機會。因此，我們正在進入一個更加自給自足的世界。

7:39 7分39 出於他們的需求。所以，這就是你看到的。我認為這將幾乎是可預見的未來的特征。

7:48 7分48 換句話說，一種獨立的自給自足。

7:54 7分54 嗯，不，除了這些其他戰爭之外，沒有其他戰爭。然後我們將看到這兩個

8:01 8分1 兩個大國以及整個世界如何在這些其他戰爭中競爭。

8:07 8分鍾 7 嗯，我想談談一件事，你知道，經過這麽多年與中國領導人的接觸，你對中國有了很多了解。你認為西方對中國及其運作方式仍然存在哪些誤解？

8:15 8分鍾 15 我認為，就像人性一樣，人們傾向於用自己的視角看待他人，

8:25 8分鍾 25 嗯，認為他們可能和自己一樣。嗯，這個

8:33 8分33 這位中國領導人舉了西方曆史上的例子，西方的演變，以及他會如何

8:42 8分42 稱之為地中海式的演變，你知道，我們以前沒有

8:50 8分50 邊界，而且，縱觀曆史，直到……之後

8:58 8分58 7世紀中葉的三十年戰爭之後，才出現了劃定邊界國家的想法，我們今天所知的國家……

9:07 9分7 存在的目的是為了防止人們越過邊界，而它存在的方式幾乎就是叢林法則，你有一些家族，

9:16 9分16 是皇室，然後，你知道，不斷地，權力，你會奪取它，所以這種

9:24 9分24 戰鬥等等的想法是……不同的東西。我認為人們普遍認為……

9:31 9分31 你知道，中國人就是這樣看待這件事的。

9:37 9分37 當然，存在權力鬥爭，而且最終，你知道，權力究竟有多大……

9:45 9分45 雙方，但能夠朝著共同的目標努力，我認為這方麵存在很大的……

9:53 9分53 很多誤解，很多猜疑，而且這並非完全沒有道理。……這其中存在……

10:01 10分1 囚徒困境。你知道，囚徒困境指的是……兩個實體。它們要麽合作，

10:11 10分11 或者它們可能互相殘殺，而且它們不確定對方會做什麽。他們應該怎麽做？他們應該

10:20 10分20 互相殘殺。因為那是他們獲得安全的唯一途徑。所以，那裏存在著一種動態

10:27 10分27 你知道，這種動態幾乎有了自己的生命。但可以肯定的是，

10:34 10分34 在很大程度上，中國的觀點並不被充分理解。嗯，當我環遊世界，比如在亞洲，你知道

10:43 10分43 美國一直被視為對抗中國的力量。好的。現在人們認為

10:52 10分52 不能指望美國打贏那場戰爭，那些基地不會在那裏。這正在改變

11:00 11 與中國的關係。你看到很多領導人前往中國，基本上是……

11:10 11分10 建立關係，但這就像朝貢體係。但該地區也承認，他們認為

11:17 11分17 這是一個地區國家必須承認並尊重這種力量的環境。所以現在你

11:26 11分26 看到這種情況發生。這種朝貢體係不是一個壓迫性的控製體係。它應該以

11:34 11分34 和諧的方式運作。你說，就我們所知，你可以看出，中國人總體上認為他們目前在與美國的競爭中做得相當不錯。

11:43 11分43 中國公司賺了很多錢。換句話說，如果你看看他們通過以下方式賺了多少錢：
11:53 11分53 他們的出口收入，嗯，嗯，嗯，以及他們已經積累和正在積累的金融資產數額，

11:59 11分59 非常龐大。所以你經常談論貿易。

12:07 12分7 但你必須看看，嗯，貨幣，嗯，貨幣的數量，他們的收入，以及他們提高的生活水平。

12:16 12分16 以及他們在各個領域的競爭情況，當然包括人工智能、機器人技術以及許多其他領域，嗯，你不得不說他們做得非常好。

12:30 12分30 我們認為二戰後以美國為主導的秩序正在瓦解。你認為中國在下一個世界秩序中擁有相當大的發言權，甚至可以說是主導權嗎？

12:41 12分41 是的，當然。呃，但這並不意味著我認為你說得很好，也沒有妄下斷言。我認為會有一個演變過程。

12:4912分鍾49分鍾，我認為，嗯，我們正在討論的中國相對實力的崛起正在創造

他們會麵臨這樣的局麵

12:58 12分58秒 建立一種朝貢體係，而這種體係真正重要且實用的地方在於：

13:06 13分6秒 承認存在權力差異。好的，我們討論過的那個體係，美國境內的一個小國

13:14 13分14秒 一些國家可以擁有與一個大國相同的投票權，但這並不是一個實用的體係。所以，我認為你

13:21 13分21秒 你會看到它在該地區演變成一個世界性的朝貢體係

13:30 13分30秒 這種體係。我認為我們會越來越多地在世界範圍內看到這種體係。

13:36 13分36秒 不要指望中國會成為一個咄咄逼人的軍事強國。我認為

13:44 13分鍾44 你會看到中國企業在世界範圍內參與經濟競爭，你會看到這種競爭加速發展。

13:53 13分鍾53 人民幣作為世界貨幣的使用也將加速發展。它不會很快取代美元，但它將

14:01 14分鍾1 在交易中快速增長。所以你會看到這種運作。

14:06 14分鍾6 你會看到，在談判中，你無法再對中國頤指氣使。

14:16 14分鍾16 它會成為一股力量。

橋水創始人瑞·達利歐：隨著中國實力增長，未來可能會出現“新型朝貢體係”的世界格局

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eXc1ORcamps
2026年5月18日

牛津聯盟。是世界上最負盛名的辯論社團，1823年創立，迄今整整兩百年曆史。愛因斯坦、丘吉爾、尼克鬆、基辛格、撒切爾夫人，都曾站在這個講台上接受犀利的詰問
嘉賓是 瑞·達利歐，全球最大對衝基金——橋水基金的創始人，被稱為"對衝基金教父"。他1949年出生，1975年在曼哈頓的公寓裏創辦橋水，用了四十多年把它做到管理規模超過1500億美元，成為全球最賺錢的對衝基金之一。

0:00you're seeing a number of leaders go up to China and essentially have u essentially have relations but it's like
0:088秒鍾the tribute system but also in the region there's the recognition in their view that there is an environment where
0:1717秒鍾uh the countries in the region have to recognize and respect that power and so now you're seeing that happen I think
0:2525秒鍾that there will be an evolution and I think that Um, China's rise in relative power that we're talking about
0:3434秒鍾is creating a situation that they will create a tribute system type of system.
2:512分鍾51秒鍾Right. Let's move on to external conflicts. So you've described the story of our time as the classic one of a rising power challenging an existing
2:592分鍾59秒鍾power and that's China and the United States today. History tells us that this transition is rarely peaceful. So when you look at the tensions over Taiwan,
3:083分鍾8秒鍾over technology, over trade, do you think this competition is being managed wisely or do you think both sides are already trapped in this confrontational
3:163分鍾16秒鍾logic? I think that um the Chinese um and west quite often uh think very
3:253分鍾25秒鍾different. So uh I've been going to China uh since uh 1984.
3:303分鍾30秒鍾They didn't have any money. I went for curiosity. I fell in love with the people and I was able to help them in development and in in some ways.
3:393分鍾39秒鍾You've often said that you see China not as a rising power but the returning one.
3:423分鍾42秒鍾Um, so I think like if if I was to give you a sense of China, um,
3:513分鍾51秒鍾things I would say to know about is, uh, internationally, know about the tribute system, know about, um, and I'll touch
4:004分鍾on these, know about the tribute system, know about Confucianism, know about the hundred years of humiliation.
4:084分鍾8秒鍾Okay? And so what I'm because this affects if there was one word I would say related to China it would be
4:174分鍾17秒鍾harmony. How do you have a system of of harmony? The tribute system is basically it it was described to me by
4:264分鍾26秒鍾leaders and historians um uh I won't name names but um that basically
4:354分鍾35秒鍾um the uh they treat China leaders through history treat it as um a family
4:424分鍾42秒鍾that they control. So um uh the word um country in China in Chinese is two
4:504分鍾50秒鍾characters state family and they control that and it is from top down rather than bottom up. So they would they emphasized
4:594分鍾59秒鍾to me that um where the country United States and the west largely is a country of individualists and individualism in
5:085分鍾8秒鍾which the individual would be paramount um theirs is more top down. So now when we go to um history and you look at uh
5:185分鍾18秒鍾the tribute system, the tribute system is simply meant to me that they're like confusionism. There's that there's a
5:245分鍾24秒鍾hierarchy and every and power determines the hierarchy and you know where you are in the hierarchy and there's a way that
5:325分鍾32秒鍾the more powerful should deal with the less powerful as a family and other family. It's up to them to run their family the way that they want to run
5:415分鍾41秒鍾their family. So, it's not to control that other family. It's to deal with it like their neighbors in a way where there's trade and and so on with an with
5:505分鍾50秒鍾a sense of o and if you're more powerful then there's a good way to treat the less powerful and vice versa. And that's
5:585分鍾58秒鍾how the system works. The hundred years of humiliation which basically went from 1848 to 1949 in a sense was the loss of
6:076分鍾7秒鍾power and what they view justifiably as the foreign powers coming in and then the arc of creating the improvements. So
6:156分鍾15秒鍾that there is a uh inclination there to be able to follow these arcs. they these
6:236分鍾23秒鍾arcs um uh you could see them transpire back to the origination of a united China in 221 BC. You can see these
6:316分鍾31秒鍾cycles go on that were the same sort of cycle. Um and I think that that's the nature of what'll happen. So when we're dealing with the questions that you
6:406分鍾40秒鍾raise about um are we going to have a fight over Taiwan, there's no doubt um in their mind um and there's it's been
6:486分鍾48秒鍾st said for uh since the end of World War II that Taiwan is part of China and there's a one China policy and um and
6:576分鍾57秒鍾that won't be denied and so on. Now I I don't think that that issue is going to be it's an evolutionary issue. I think
7:057分鍾5秒鍾at this moment I don't think that that's going to be it. And both of these societies are going to evolve on their own and they'll have interactions. We
7:137分鍾13秒鍾are in a new world in which they realize there are different types of wars going on. There's a trade war, there's a technology war, there's a financial war,
7:227分鍾22秒鍾there all of that. and any uh vulnerabilities or dependencies that the other has uh that they have with each
7:307分鍾30秒鍾other are viewed as opportunities to exert leverage on them. So, we're coming into a world of greater self-sufficiency
7:397分鍾39秒鍾out of their needs for that. And so, that's what you're seeing. I think that that's going to be pretty much the the characterization uh for the foreseeable
7:487分鍾48秒鍾future. In other words, a sort of that uh independent self-sufficiency
7:547分鍾54秒鍾um no not uh not war other than these other wars. And then we'll see how those
8:018分鍾1秒鍾two great powers and and the world as a whole competes in those other wars.
8:078分鍾7秒鍾Um one thing I want to touch on, you know, after all your years of engaging with China's leaders, you've learned a lot about how China is. What do you
8:158分鍾15秒鍾think the West still misunderstands about China and how they operate?
8:188分鍾18秒鍾I think that like human nature, there's a tendency to look at others
8:258分鍾25秒鍾um through your own eyes as thinking that they might be like you. And um this
8:338分鍾33秒鍾uh Chinese leader gave the example of um the western uh through history the western uh evolution and what he would
8:428分鍾42秒鍾call a Mediterranean uh evolution and um you know um we didn't have um the
8:508分鍾50秒鍾boundaries and the um all through time um it really wasn't until after the uh
8:588分鍾58秒鍾30 years war in the mid7th century that the idea a of creating a boundary countries that nations as we know it um
9:079分鍾7秒鍾existed so that you wouldn't cross um boundaries and so that the way it existed would pretty much almost the law of the jungle you had families which
9:169分鍾16秒鍾were royalties uh then um you know constantly uh it would be power and you would take that and so that idea of
9:249分鍾24秒鍾fighting and so on is um something different I think that it's perceived um a more commonly
9:319分鍾31秒鍾that the um you know the Chinese are um you know it's looked at in in this way.
9:379分鍾37秒鍾Certainly there's a struggle for power and certainly um it's ultimately at the end of the day you know how powerful are
9:459分鍾45秒鍾both entities but the notion of being able to work toward a common piece and that I think that there's um a great
9:539分鍾53秒鍾deal of misunderstanding a great deal of uh suspicion and it's not entirely unwarranted. Um there's the nature of
10:0110分鍾1秒鍾the prisoners's dilemma. You know the prisoners dilemma means um um two entities. They can either cooperate
10:1110分鍾11秒鍾um or they could kill each other and they're not sure what the other is going to do. What should they do? They should
10:2010分鍾20秒鍾kill the other. And so then because that's the only way they could be secure. And so there's a that dynamic
10:2710分鍾27秒鍾that is going on in in there that you know almost has a life of its own. But it's certainly the case that by and
10:3410分鍾34秒鍾large it uh that Chinese perspective is not well understood. Um when I go around the world um like in Asia you know the
10:4310分鍾43秒鍾United States it has been viewed as a counterveailing force uh relative to China. Okay. Now it's believed that that
10:5210分鍾52秒鍾the United States cannot be relied on to fight that war will not be there with those bases. And this is changing uh
11:0011分鍾relationships with China too. You're seeing a number of leaders go up to China and essentially have u essentially
11:1011分鍾10秒鍾have relations but it's like the tribute system. But also in the region there's the recognition in their view that there
11:1711分鍾17秒鍾is an environment where uh the countries in the region uh have to recognize and respect that power. And so now you're
11:2611分鍾26秒鍾seeing that happen. That tribute system is not a um oppressive controlling system. It should operate in a
11:3411分鍾34秒鍾harmonious way. You say that as far as we can tell, you can tell, uh, the Chinese by and large think they're doing pretty well in the rivalry with the United States right now.
11:4311分鍾43秒鍾China, Inc. is making a ton of money. In other words, if you look at the amount of money that they are making through
11:5311分鍾53秒鍾their export earnings um uh uh and the amount of financial assets that they've
11:5911分鍾59秒鍾accumulated and are accumulating, it's huge. So you one talks a lot about trade
12:0712分鍾7秒鍾but you have to look about uh money and um the quantity of money and their earnings and their raising of living
12:1612分鍾16秒鍾standards and how they're competing in various areas certainly AI but robotics and a number of areas um you would have to say that they are doing very well.
12:3012分鍾30秒鍾We say the postw World War II order imposed larger with the US is breaking down. Would you say China has a substantial say if not dictating the next world order?
12:4112分鍾41秒鍾Yes, of course. Uh but that doesn't mean I think you said it well and not dictating. I think that there will be an evolution
12:4912分鍾49秒鍾and I think that um China's rise in relative power that we're talking about is creating a situation that they will
12:5812分鍾58秒鍾create a tribute system type of system and and what what's important and actually practical about that is it
13:0613分鍾6秒鍾recognizes that there are differences in power. Okay, the system that we went through, a tiny country in the United
13:1413分鍾14秒鍾Nations could have the same vote as a huge country and and it wasn't a practical system. So, I think you're
13:2113分鍾21秒鍾going to see it evolve in that region as being um um a world um a tribute system
13:3013分鍾30秒鍾type of system. I think increasingly we're going to see that in the world. I
13:3613分鍾36秒鍾don't expect um China to be an aggressive military power. I think that
13:4413分鍾44秒鍾they um you will see uh economically Chinese companies competing in the world, you're going to see an acceleration of that.
13:5313分鍾53秒鍾The use of the remmbb uh as a world currency, you're going to see an acceleration of that. It won't replace the dollar quickly, but it's going to
14:0114分鍾1秒鍾grow quickly for transactions. So you're going to see that kind of operation.
14:0614分鍾6秒鍾You're going to see um in uh negotiations, you're not you're going to see that you will not be able to push around China.
14:1614分鍾16秒鍾Um that there will it will be a force.