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99歲芒格警告：美國銀行業堆滿了“地產壞賬”
王眉
“股神”巴菲特的長年事業夥伴、波克夏公司副董事長孟格（Charlie Munger）警告說，美國商業地產市場正在醞釀風暴，隨著房地產價格下跌，美國銀行業滿手“壞帳”。
芒格最新警告稱，美國商業地產市場正在醞釀一場風暴，隨著地產價格下跌，美國銀行業“充斥著不良貸款”。
巴菲特的老搭檔、伯克希爾哈撒韋副董事長查理·芒格在最近的一次采訪中，對美國目前的銀行業危機發表了令人吃驚的評論。
在接受英國《金融時報》周日的采訪時，芒格警告稱，美國商業地產市場正在醞釀一場風暴，隨著地產價格下跌，美國銀行業“充斥著不良貸款”。
芒格說：“很多房地產的情況已經不太妙了。我們有很多陷入困境的辦公樓，很多陷入困境的購物中心，還有很多陷入困境的其他房地產。外麵哀鴻遍野。”
他補充說：“與六個月前相比，目前美國每家銀行對房地產貸款的收緊程度都要高得多。”
盡管芒格指出，目前的市場並不像2008年時那樣糟糕，但他表示，“銀行業也會遇到麻煩，就像其他地方都會遇到麻煩一樣。”
芒格發出警告之際，正值美國聯邦監管機構要求各大銀行在周日下午之前提交對第一共和銀行的最終收購要約，這是有關美國中型銀行業危機的最新消息。
雖然伯克希爾有在美國金融不穩定時期支持銀行業的曆史，但到目前為止該公司對矽穀銀行和Signature銀行的倒閉一直置身事外。
芒格認為伯克希爾的克製，部分是由於銀行大量商業地產貸款可能帶來的風險。
他表示：
“伯克希爾對銀行進行了一些投資，業績顯示非常好。我們對銀行也有一些失望。明智地經營一家銀行並不是那麽容易；做錯事的誘惑有很多。”
Charlie Munger Warns of 'Bad' Commercial Real Estate Loans at Banks
Berkshire Hathaway vice chairman Charlie Munger said that banks are facing headwinds because of their real estate loans as property values dipped.
The commercial property loans held by US banks are problematic since many of them would be deemed as "bad loans" since property values have declined, said Charlie Munger, vice chairman of Berkshire Hathaway.
Banks in the U.S. are “full of” real estate loans that he considers "bad loans," he told the Financial Times.
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The banking system in the US has faced turbulence recently with the closures and bailouts of Silicon Valley Bank in California and Signature Bank in New York and the near collapse of First Republic Bank in California as it faces a crisis of confidence.
Munger, 99, who has worked alongside Warren Buffett, the CEO of Berkshire (BRK.A) - Get Free Report, for many decades, said banks will encounter challenges with their commercial real estate portfolios with the decline of property values office vacancies have risen in many cities and interest rates increased.
But the roadblocks that banks could run into will be more mild compared to the Great Recession that occurred during 2007 to 2008.
“It’s not nearly as bad as it was in 2008,” Munger told the FT during a recent interview at his home in Los Angeles.
“But trouble happens to banking just like trouble happens everywhere else," he said. "In the good times you get into bad habits . . . When bad times come they lose too much.”
Berkshire Invests in Banks
Buffett and his conglomerate have long been fans of bank stocks and supported them during previous financial problems, including investing $5 billion into Goldman Sachs (GS) - Get Free Report during the financial crisis. In 2011, Berkshire made a $5 billion bet into Bank of America (BAC) - Get Free Report.
While Buffett and Munger have invested in banks for several decades, the company has stuck with large banks like Wells Fargo and avoided investing in smaller ones.
“Berkshire has made some bank investments that worked out very well for us,” Munger said. “We’ve had some disappointment in banks, too. It’s not that damned easy to run a bank intelligently, there are a lot of temptations to do the wrong thing.”
While Berkshire has been a longtime investor in insurance companies, neither Munger nor Buffett like the volatility that stems from loans in commercial real estate. The decline in property values may not see a turnaround soon, especially in office buildings as well as shopping centers as portions of the workforce continue to work remotely.
“A lot of real estate isn’t so good any more,” he said. “We have a lot of troubled office buildings, a lot of troubled shopping centers, a lot of troubled other properties. There’s a lot of agony out there.”
Some banks had already started lowering their risk by approving fewer commercial real estate loans that developers sought.
“Every bank in the country is way tighter on real estate loans today than they were six months ago,” Munger said. “They all seem [to be] too much trouble.”
Since 1965, Berkshire produced compounded annual returns of almost 20%,which is twice the rate generated by the S&P 500.
Munger credits part of their success to their timing and some good luck.
“We were a creature of a particular time and a perfect set of opportunities,” he said Munger.
The two investors also had several advantages, including “by and large [from] low interest rates, low equity values, ample opportunities,” he said.
Munger's net worth is valued at $2.4 billion by Forbes and is diversified. In addition to his shares in Berkshire, he has invested in Costco (COST) - Get Free Report, the warehouse retailer, plus Munger allocated money into a fund managed by Li Lu’s Himalaya Capital. He also invested money into Afton Properties, a real estate company that venture that owns apartments in New Jersey and California.
His wealth is the result of investing in companies at a discount.
“It’s the nature of things that a very intelligent man working hard maybe gets three, four, five really good long-term opportunities of buying great companies at a cheap price,” Munger said. “It happens rarely.”
Investors are eagerly awaiting Berkshire's annual meeting in Omaha on May 6 when Munger and Buffett will discuss their investment strategies and take questions from their shareholders.
Expect Lower Returns, Munger Says
Investors need to be prepared for a pullback in the market and expect lower returns from their shares of companies, Munger said.
“It’s gotten very tough to have anything like the returns that were obtained in the past,” he said. “[At] the exact time that the game is getting tougher we’ve got more and more people trying to play it.”
