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Rudd tells Biden he can ease US-China tensions
R Ray Dalio's five megatrends help explain what comes next
橋水創始人達利歐重磅警告：中美正處於“戰爭邊緣” 美國總統大選前情況隻會惡化
FX168財經報社(香港)訊 對衝基金橋水(Bridgewater)創始人、億萬富翁瑞·達利歐(Ray Dalio)表示，美國和中國正處於“戰爭的邊緣”，在明年美國總統大選前夕，這種情況隻會惡化。
(截圖來源：《澳大利亞金融評論報》)
最近兩次訪問中國的達利歐周三(4月26日)在領英上寫道：“這將是一個風險極大的時期，因為中國和美國現在已經處在了戰爭的邊緣，沒有能力談判。”
他表示：“當我說美國和中國處於戰爭邊緣時，我的意思是，他們似乎接近於製裁戰爭和/或軍事戰爭，雙方都不希望發生，但許多人認為可能會發生。”
達利歐的理由有三點，包括雙方都“非常接近對方的紅線”，同時利用邊緣政策迫使對方“冒著越過對方紅線的風險”，而在未來18個月裏，政治可能會導致更激進的邊緣政策。
達利歐表示：“他們非常接近越過紅線，如果越過紅線，將不可逆轉地把他們推到某種戰爭的邊緣，這種戰爭會損害這兩個國家，並以嚴重和不可挽回的方式對世界秩序造成損害——就像俄羅斯入侵烏克蘭對俄羅斯和世界造成的損害一樣，隻是規模要大得多。”
白宮負責亞洲事務的高級外交官坎貝爾(Kurt Campbell)上月表示，希望中美兩國能夠在幾個月內重新開啟溝通渠道。
坎貝爾上月對新美國安全中心(Centre for a New American Security)表示：“我認為，你將在未來幾個月看到，美中之間是否有可能重建有效、可預測、建設性的外交關係。”
然而，達利歐表示，中美兩國關係非常糟糕，談判隻會使局勢惡化。
達利歐說道：“至於雙方無法相互交談，我的意思是，關於重大問題的討論已經變成了相互指責，使關係惡化，而不是有助於關係，因此進行討論比避免討論更糟糕。”
他還認為，在明年總統大選之前，民主黨人和共和黨人都會加劇這種情況。他說，定於明年1月舉行的台灣領導人選舉也可能加劇緊張局勢。
達利歐表示：“從現在到2024年美國和台灣選舉之間的選舉周期的政治時間表，可能會導致美國采取更多極限反華邊緣政策。雖然兩黨和大多數美國人都同意反華，但他們無法就反華的程度和方式達成一致。”
他表示，這將是一個“非常危險的時期，因為中國和美國現在已經處於戰爭的邊緣”。
然而，達利歐通過區分“處於戰爭邊緣”和實際武裝衝突，緩和了這一信息。
達利歐說道：“我想強調的是，我說他們處於戰爭邊緣，並不是說他們一定會越過邊緣。”
達利歐曾寫過有關地緣政治對投資影響的書籍。他表示，他正試圖促成這兩個世界大國之間采取一些和解行動。
他說：“我處於中間立場，既要幫助雙方，又要在幫助對方的過程中不傷害任何一方。我最近對中國進行了兩次為期13天的訪問，其間與來自不同背景的人進行了多次會麵和交談。”
作為全球屈指可數的金融巨頭，達利歐對全球市場與投資管理有獨到見解，是全球基金投資的重要風向標。
這位億萬富翁最近退出了橋水基金的日常管理。以管理的資產規模計算，這家開創性的對衝基金已被他打造成全球最大的對衝基金。
橋水為主權財富基金中國投資公司(China Investment Corp)管理著數十億美元資產。
敬告讀者：所有內容不代表FX168財經報社立場，僅供讀者參考！FX168提供的交易相關數據及資訊不構成投資決策的依據，由此帶來的投資風險和損失由交易者自行承擔。
Ray Dalio says China, US on ‘brink of war’
https://www.afr.com/world/north-america/ray-dalio-says-china-us-on-brink-of-war-20230427-p5d3k8
Matthew Cranston is the United States correspondent, based in Washington. He was previously the Economics correspondent and Property editor. Connect with Matthew on Twitter. Email Matthew at mcranston@afr.com
Washington | Ray Dalio, the billionaire founder of hedge fund Bridgewater, says America and China are on the “brink of war”, and the situation will only deteriorate in the run-up to the US presidential election next year.
Following a 13-day trip through China, Mr Dalio, whose fund Bridgewater Associates has managed billions of dollars for the sovereign wealth fund China Investment Corp, says he is in a “privileged and awkward position of being deeply attached to the two greatest powers in the world”.
Ray Dalio: “The United States and China are on the brink of war and are beyond the ability to talk.” AP
But his view is not one of optimism.
“The United States and China are on the brink of war and are beyond the ability to talk,” Mr Dalio said in a letter posted on networking platform LinkedIn.
“What I mean when I say that the US and China are on the brink of war is that it appears that they are close to having a sanctions war and/or military war that neither side wants but many believe will probably happen.”
His rationale is threefold, and includes each side being “very close to the other’s red lines”, while using brinksmanship to push the other “at the risk of crossing each other’s red lines”, with politics likely to cause more aggressive brinksmanship over the next 18 months.
“They are very close to crossing red lines that, if crossed, will irrevocably push them over the brink into some type of war that damages these two countries and causes damage to the world order in severe and irrevocable ways – like Russia’s invasion of Ukraine did for Russia and the world, just much bigger,” Mr Dalio said.
The White House’s top Asia diplomat, Kurt Campbell, last month expressed hope that China and the US could reopen channels of communication within a few months following a hiatus initially triggered by former US Speaker of the House’s visit to Taiwan, and prolonged by a Chinese spy balloon over mainland America.
“I think you will see in the coming months whether it’s going to be possible to reestablish effective, predictable, constructive diplomacy between the United States and China,” Mr Campbell told the Centre for a New American Security last month.
Role of mediator
However, Mr Dalio says that the relationship is so bad that talks would only worsen the situation.
“As for the two sides not being able to talk with each other, what I mean is that discussions about big, important things have become exchanges of accusations that worsen relations rather than help them, so it is worse to have the discussions than to avoid them,” Mr Dalio said.
He also thinks the situation will be exacerbated by both Democrats and Republicans in the lead-up to next year’s presidential election. Presidential elections in Taiwan scheduled for January could also add to tensions, he said.
“The political timetable of the election cycle between now and the 2024 elections in the United States and Taiwan will likely lead to more push-the-limit anti-Chinese brinksmanship from the US,” Mr Dalio said.
“While both parties and most Americans agree on being anti-China, they can’t agree on how much and in what ways.”
He says this will be a “very risky period because China and the US are now already on the brink of war”.
However, Mr Dalio tempers the message by differentiating between “being on the brink” of war and actual armed conflict.
“I want to emphasise that by saying that they are on the brink, I don’t mean to say that they will necessarily go over the brink.”
Mr Dalio, who has written books about geopolitical influence on investment, said he was trying to broker some conciliatory actions between the two world powers.
“I am in the middle trying to help both while trying not to hurt either side in the process of helping the other,” he said.
“I recently had two trips to China lasting 13 days that included many meetings and conversations with people from a variety of backgrounds.”
