At a time of heightened uncertainties for the global economy, India’s strong performance remains a bright spot. So, it’s fitting that Group of Twenty finance ministers and central bank governors will gather in Bengaluru this week.
This will be another challenging year. But it could represent a turning point—with inflation declining and growth bottoming out. Indeed, while our latest projections show global growth slowing to 2.9 percent this year, we anticipate a modest rebound to 3.1 percent in 2024.
Look behind the headline numbers and we see emerging market and developing economies providing much of the momentum. We expect them to account for about four-fifths of global growth this year, with India alone expected to contribute more than 15 percent.
But beyond its role as a global growth engine, India is uniquely positioned to bring countries together.
看看標題數字的背後，我們看到新興市場和發展中經濟體提供了很大的動力。 我們預計它們將占今年全球增長的五分之四左右，僅印度就預計貢獻超過 15%。
但除了作為全球增長引擎的角色之外，印度還處於將各國團結在一起的獨特地位。
In a world facing multiple challenges and rising geopolitical tensions, this leadership is critical—and beautifully captured in the theme of India’s G20 presidency: One Earth, One Family, One Future.
Let me share my view of what this spirit of “one” represents for policymakers and for all of us as a global community.
First, one family means solidarity and protecting the vulnerable.
The reality is that growth is still subpar and price pressures are still too high. And, after three years of shocks, too many economies and people are still hurting badly.
在一個麵臨多重挑戰和地緣政治緊張局勢加劇的世界中，這種領導力至關重要——印度擔任 G20 主席國的主題得到了很好的體現：同一個地球、同一個家庭、同一個未來。
讓我分享一下我對這種“一個”精神對決策者和全球社會所有人的意義的看法。
首先，一個家庭意味著團結和保護弱勢群體。
現實是增長仍然低於平均水平，價格壓力仍然過高。 而且，在經曆了三年的衝擊之後，太多的經濟體和人民仍在遭受重創。
Around the world, many households struggle to make ends meet because of the high cost of living. Millions cannot afford fuel for heating or cooking. Successive shocks have increased poverty, jeopardizing decades of progress. And, notwithstanding some easing in food prices, a record 349 million people in 79 countries face acute food insecurity.
Supporting the vulnerable is vital in all countries.
Fiscal measures should be temporary and laser-focused on protecting those who are most in need—always good practice, but even more important as countries grapple with increasingly limited resources and higher debt. In most countries, targeted measures need to be coupled with gradual fiscal tightening to rebuild buffers and ensure debt sustainability.
在世界各地，許多家庭因高昂的生活成本而難以維持生計。 數百萬人買不起取暖或做飯的燃料。 接連不斷的衝擊加劇了貧困，危及數十年的進步。 而且，盡管食品價格有所緩和，但 79 個國家/地區創紀錄的 3.49 億人麵臨嚴重的糧食不安全。
支持弱勢群體在所有國家都至關重要。
財政措施應該是臨時性的，並集中精力保護那些最需要幫助的人——這始終是良好做法，但隨著各國努力應對日益有限的資源和更高的債務，這一措施更為重要。 在大多數國家，有針對性的措施需要與逐步財政緊縮相結合，以重建緩衝並確保債務可持續性。
Meanwhile, bringing inflation back to target remains imperative. To get there, policymakers need to stay the course on monetary tightening. Aligning fiscal and monetary policies will help. Clear communication of these policy goals is vital to avoid a sudden repricing in financial markets.
While the global tightening cycle is necessary to ensure price stability, policymakers must be mindful of adverse spillovers to emerging and developing economies—including through a stronger US dollar and capital outflows. While financial conditions have improved since the G20 last met, providing some modest relief, we have seen how higher borrowing costs exacerbate the vulnerability of economies with heavy external debt burdens.
與此同時，使通脹回到目標水平仍然勢在必行。 為實現這一目標，政策製定者需要堅持貨幣緊縮政策。 調整財政和貨幣政策將有所幫助。 明確傳達這些政策目標對於避免金融市場突然重新定價至關重要。
雖然全球緊縮周期對於確保價格穩定是必要的，但政策製定者必須注意對新興和發展中經濟體的不利溢出效應——包括美元走強和資本外流。 盡管自 G20 上次會議以來金融狀況有所改善，提供了一定程度的緩解，但我們已經看到借貸成本上升如何加劇外債負擔沉重的經濟體的脆弱性。
About 15 percent of low-income countries are in debt distress and an additional 45 percent are at high risk of debt distress. And among emerging economies, about 25 percent are at high risk and facing “default-like” borrowing spreads.
Here, solidarity means better mechanisms to restructure debt. Under the G20’s Common Framework, Chad reached an agreement with its creditors at the end of last year, and Zambia and Ghana are progressing toward debt resolution. But the ground rules need to be clarified and the processes made more efficient and effective.
大約 15% 的低收入國家處於債務困境之中，另有 45% 處於債務困境的高風險之中。 在新興經濟體中，約 25% 的經濟體處於高風險中，麵臨著“類似違約”的借貸利差。
在這裏，團結意味著更好的債務重組機製。 在G20的共同框架下，乍得去年年底與債權人達成協議，讚比亞和加納正在推進債務解決。 但需要澄清基本規則，並使流程更加高效和有效。
To accelerate debt restructuring efforts, the IMF, World Bank, and India’s G20 presidency are convening a new Global Sovereign Debt Roundtable. This week in Bengaluru, we will meet in?person for the first time—and pave the way for creditors, both public and private, and debtor countries to work together, assess the existing shortcomings and best ways to tackle them.
In this more shock-prone world, some emerging and developing economies will also require additional financial support. So, a well-resourced global financial safety net, with the IMF at its center, is more important than ever.
為加快債務重組工作，國際貨幣基金組織、世界銀行和 G20 輪值主席國印度正在召開新的全球主權債務圓桌會議。 本周在班加羅爾，我們將首次麵對麵會麵——並為公共和私人債權人以及債務國共同努力鋪平道路，評估現有的缺點和解決這些問題的最佳方法。
在這個更加容易受到衝擊的世界中，一些新興和發展中經濟體也將需要額外的金融支持。 因此，以國際貨幣基金組織為中心的資源充足的全球金融安全網比以往任何時候都更加重要。
Think of how the Fund has stepped up to support our family of nations since the start of the pandemic. Over $272 billion for 94 countries of which about $34 billion was fast-disbursing emergency financing. The historic SDR allocation of $650 billion to boost our members’ reserves. And a new Food Shock Window provides fast access to resources for countries hit hardest by the food security crisis.
Now, further solidarity is needed to stand as one with the low-income and vulnerable members of our family to ensure they can still access concessional IMF financing in times of distress and to guard against future crises. Others with the strength and capacity to do so need to stand up and help address fundraising shortfalls—especially on subsidy resources in the Poverty Reduction and Growth Trust—and deliver additional contributions to the new Resilience and Sustainability Trust. This also means determination to advance the 16th General Review of Quotas so we can complete it by the end of the year.
想一想自大流行開始以來，基金組織是如何加緊支持我們的國際大家庭的。 為 94 個國家提供了超過 2720 億美元的資金，其中約 340 億美元用於快速支付緊急融資。 曆史性的 6500 億美元特別提款權分配用於增加我們成員國的儲備。 新的糧食衝擊窗口為受糧食安全危機打擊最嚴重的國家提供了快速獲取資源的途徑。
現在，我們需要進一步團結起來，與我們家庭中的低收入和弱勢成員站在一起，以確保他們在困難時期仍能獲得國際貨幣基金組織的優惠融資，並防範未來的危機。 其他有實力和能力這樣做的人需要挺身而出，幫助解決籌款短缺問題——尤其是在減貧和增長信托基金的補貼資源方麵——並為新的複原力和可持續性信托基金提供更多捐款。 這也意味著決心推進第十六次份額總檢查，力爭年底前完成。
Second, one earth means protecting our planet, our home.
We are witness to the increasingly severe and pervasive effects of climate change — an existential threat to humanity that we can only fight as a collective. We must band together as one family in defense of our one earth.
Our collective goal of delivering on the Paris Agreement and boosting resilience will require policies that can help redirect trillions of dollars towards green projects. Consider smarter regulation, price signals and well targeted subsidies that incentivize low-carbon investment or financial innovations that mobilize more private capital.
第二，一個地球意味著保護我們的星球，我們的家園。
我們見證了氣候變化日益嚴重和普遍的影響——這是對人類生存的威脅，我們隻能作為一個集體來應對。 我們必須像一個家庭一樣團結起來保衛我們的同一個地球。
我們實現《巴黎協定》和增強韌性的共同目標將需要能夠幫助將數萬億美元重新用於綠色項目的政策。 考慮更明智的監管、價格信號和針對性強的補貼，以激勵低碳投資或調動更多私人資本的金融創新。
Here the IMF’s advice and financial support is working in tandem to mitigate the massive climate-related risks to economic and financial stability. The first wave of pilot countries accessing the Resilience and Sustainability Trust demonstrate how we are helping vulnerable countries set up the right policies and create an environment conducive to climate-friendly investments. Alongside this, we are coordinating with others—including multilateral development banks and the private sector—who have a key role to play in reducing investment risks.
To be sure, there are signs of progress, as major economies realign their fiscal frameworks to accelerate the green transition. But policies should stay focused on that transition—rather than providing a competitive advantage to domestic firms. “Green subsidies” for early-stage technologies can be helpful—look at how they lowered the global price of solar energy. They must, however, be carefully designed to avoid wasteful spending or trade tensions, and to make sure that technology is shared with the developing world.
在這裏，國際貨幣基金組織的建議和金融支持協同工作，以減輕與經濟和金融穩定相關的巨大氣候相關風險。 第一波獲得複原力和可持續性信托基金的試點國家展示了我們如何幫助脆弱國家製定正確的政策並創造有利於氣候友好型投資的環境。 除此之外，我們正在與其他機構（包括多邊開發銀行和私營部門）進行協調，他們在降低投資風險方麵發揮著關鍵作用。
可以肯定的是，隨著主要經濟體重新調整其財政框架以加速綠色轉型，取得了進展的跡象。 但政策應繼續關注這種轉變——而不是為國內企業提供競爭優勢。 對早期技術的“綠色補貼”可能會有幫助——看看它們如何降低太陽能的全球價格。 然而，它們必須經過精心設計，以避免浪費開支或貿易緊張局勢，並確保與發展中國家共享技術。
In other words, we must not slide into protectionism. This would make it even more difficult for poorer countries to access new technologies and support the green transition.
The health of our earth is essential to our future. But it is not the only ingredient.
One future means ensuring everyone can prosper.
In an era of technological transformation, how policymakers manage the potential of digital progress can be central to a fair and inclusive future. Think of the revenue and compliance gains from digital tax administration; greater transparency through online procurement that helps fight corruption; and the accountability of digital public financial management systems that can strengthen the social contract.
換句話說，我們不能滑入保護主義。 這將使較貧窮的國家更難獲得新技術和支持綠色轉型。
地球的健康對我們的未來至關重要。 但它不是唯一的成分。
一個未來意味著確保每個人都能繁榮昌盛。
在技術轉型的時代，政策製定者如何管理數字進步的潛力對於一個公平和包容的未來至關重要。 想想數字稅務管理帶來的收入和合規收益； 通過有助於打擊腐敗的在線采購提高透明度； 以及可以加強社會契約的數字公共財政管理係統的問責製。
India’s Unified Payments Interface is an excellent example of technology boosting financial inclusion. Last month alone, this layer of India’s digital public infrastructure processed over 8 billion transactions. And that system allows 400 million people in rural areas to participate with legacy ‘push-button’ cellphones.
This is just the beginning. Most IMF member countries are now actively evaluating central bank digital currencies (CBDCs) that could bring substantial benefits, such as more resilient payments in disaster-prone countries and greater financial inclusion. India has conducted an in-depth assessment of CBDCs, which could inform similar studies elsewhere, accelerating digital progress worldwide.
印度的統一支付接口是技術促進金融包容性的一個很好的例子。 僅上個月，印度數字公共基礎設施的這一層就處理了超過 80 億筆交易。 該係統允許農村地區的 4 億人使用傳統的“按鈕”手機參與。
這僅僅是個開始。 大多數 IMF 成員國現在都在積極評估中央銀行數字貨幣 (CBDC)，這些貨幣可以帶來實質性好處，例如在易受災害的國家中更具彈性的支付和更大的金融包容性。 印度對 CBDC 進行了深入評估，這可以為其他地方的類似研究提供信息，從而加速全球數字化進程。
Yet any new financial technology also comes with risks.
The recent collapse of some prominent crypto exchanges has intensified concerns about market integrity and user protection. That is why we need the right policies—for example, to strengthen financial regulation and develop global standards that can apply evenly across borders. The IMF’s work on crypto assets is particularly focused on macro-financial policies.
The idea of maximizing upsides while avoiding missteps lies at the heart of the IMF’s capacity development work. Our objective is to be a transmission line of best practice across our entire membership.
This spirit of “one” should guide us as we move forward.
然而，任何新的金融技術也伴隨著風險。
最近一些知名加密貨幣交易所的倒閉加劇了人們對市場誠信和用戶保護的擔憂。 這就是為什麽我們需要正確的政策——例如，加強金融監管和製定可以跨境均勻適用的全球標準。 國際貨幣基金組織在加密資產方麵的工作特別側重於宏觀金融政策。
最大限度地發揮優勢同時避免失誤的想法是基金組織能力建設工作的核心。 我們的目標是成為我們所有會員的最佳實踐傳輸線。
這種“一”的精神應該指引我們前進。
To achieve the goals of ‘One Earth, One Family, One Future’, we need to find common ground even as geopolitical tensions are rising. And we need to steer clear of zero-sum policies that would only leave the world poorer and less secure.
As Indian Nobel Laureate Rabindranath Tagore once said: “ You can’t cross the sea merely by standing and staring at the water .”
For G20 policymakers, this means having the courage to take the right actions, steering the ship we are all on to safe harbor.
為了實現“一個地球、一個家庭、一個未來”的目標，我們需要在地緣政治緊張局勢加劇的情況下找到共同點。 我們需要避免隻會讓世界變得更貧窮和更不安全的零和政策。
正如印度諾貝爾獎得主羅賓德拉納特·泰戈爾曾經說過的那樣：“僅僅站著凝視海水是無法渡過大海的。”
對於 G20 決策者來說，這意味著要有勇氣采取正確的行動，將我們所有人的船駛向安全港。
