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紐約時報 烏克蘭問題 大多數國家不跟美國

(2022-04-19 08:22:42) 下一個

紐約時報罕見承認：烏克蘭問題上，世界大多數國家不跟西方站在一起

劉騫  2022-04-19  觀察者網 【編譯/觀察者網 劉騫】

“我們生活在一個泡沫之中……實際上，世界大多數的政府並不跟我們站在一起。”

美國主流媒體之一《紐約時報》18日發文罕見承認，在烏克蘭問題上，並不是世界上所有國家都與西方立場一致。有很多國家屬於“中間派”，它們既不支持烏克蘭也不支持俄羅斯。西方國家的民眾所持有的“全世界集體對付普京”的印象是不真實的。

《紐約時報》報道截圖

這篇題為“混亂的中間派”（messy middle）的報道少見地反思了西方國家看待俄烏衝突視角上的狹隘，重點關注了那些在俄烏問題上保持中立、不以製裁的方式解決衝突的國家。

該文章在開頭寫道，如果你生活在大多數的西方國家中，你的政府正在通過援助武器、製裁俄羅斯等方式支持烏克蘭，那麽你可能會有一種印象：全世界都在聯合起來“回應”俄羅斯在烏克蘭的軍事行動。

但這不是真的。文章稱，全世界195個國家中大多數國家都沒有向烏克蘭運送武器，或加入製裁俄羅斯。有少部分國家積極支持俄羅斯。其他大部分國家屬於“混亂的中間派”，它們既不站在烏克蘭一邊，也不站在俄羅斯一邊。

“在美國和歐洲地區，我們生活在一個泡沫之中……但實際上，世界大多數的政府並不跟我們站在一起。”文章援引美國智庫大西洋理事會高級副主席巴裏·帕維爾（Barry Pavel）的話說道。

當地時間2022年3月24日，美國紐約，聯合國大會24日通過一項關於烏克蘭人道主義局勢的決議草案。圖自視覺中國

那麽這些未跟隨西方的中間派國家在俄烏問題上究竟是如何行事，它們背後的動機是什麽？文章接下來做了一些具體的分析。

首先是印度和以色列。文章稱它們是被西方認可的“民主國家”，是美國的重要盟友。但是這兩國都未向烏克蘭提供武器或者製裁俄羅斯。文章將原因總結為，兩國都在國家安全方麵需要俄羅斯的幫助，不站隊西方更符合它們的“國家利益”。

印度是俄羅斯出口武器的最大買家，長期以來與俄保持著良好關係。以色列則需要俄羅斯來調停其與主要對手伊朗及鄰國敘利亞之間的關係。

其他部分拉丁美洲、東南亞和非洲國家也出於“國家利益”做出類似選擇。文章稱，在3月2日聯合國大會關於譴責俄羅斯軍事行動決議的投票中，玻利維亞、越南和非洲54國中的近一半都投下棄權票。

其次是對西方持質疑態度的國家。文章稱，它們會援引西方國家帝國主義時期的罪惡曆史及過往不尊重人權的事例，來說明西方如今在烏克蘭問題上的姿態是非正義的。

比如南非總統西裏爾·拉馬福薩就批評北約組織對俄羅斯的軍事行動負有責任，南非駐聯合國大使在上月關於烏克蘭問題的辯論中批評美國入侵伊拉克造成了嚴重的人道主義危機。

有些在聯合國大會上投票譴責俄羅斯的國家也不支持西方對俄製裁等手段。如巴西駐聯合國大使就批評西方給烏克蘭送武器以及製裁俄羅斯將會“使戰爭升級”。

文章把第三種類型的國家稱為“俄羅斯的朋友”，中國也被分入這一類型。該文聲稱中國把俄烏衝突視為“一個機會”，可以製衡美國、提升自身的地緣政治地位。不過它也承認中國“似乎沒有向俄羅斯提供武器或經濟援助”，在西方和俄羅斯之間保持著微妙的平衡。

值得注意的是，該文章最後也提及，隨著俄烏衝突的持續，這些目前還維持中立姿態的國家未來將麵臨更多西方國家要求“選邊站”的壓力。到那時，即使是選擇中立也需要勇氣。

當地時間4月18日，美國國務院發言人內德·普萊斯（Ned Price）在簡報會上再度炒作“中國援助俄羅斯”，並施壓中國“譴責俄羅斯”，逼迫中方選邊站隊。

秦剛在美國《國家利益》雜誌發表署名文章

同日，中國駐美大使秦剛在美國《國家利益》雜誌發表署名文章進行回應。秦剛強調，中國過去是、將來也是獨立自主的大國，始終堅持從事情的是非曲直出發作出判斷、決定立場，不受任何外來壓力幹擾。所謂中方事先知情俄方對烏軍事行動以及中方向俄方提供軍事援助都是虛假信息。類似俄烏衝突的事件如果發生在其他地方、其他國家之間，中國也會持今天這樣的立場。

The ‘Messy Middle’

The West is arming Ukraine and punishing Russia. Today we look at the countries that aren't.

 

Volodymyr Zelensky addresses the United Nations Security Council this month.

Volodymyr Zelensky addresses the United Nations Security Council this month.Credit...Timothy A. Clary/Agence France-Presse — Getty Images

If you live in most any Western country, your government’s support for Ukraine, including sending weapons and imposing sanctions on Russia, can give the impression of a united global response to Vladimir Putin’s invasion.

But that isn’t the case. Most of the world’s 195 countries have not shipped aid to Ukraine or joined in sanctions. A handful have actively supported Russia. Far more occupy the “messy middle,” as Carisa Nietsche of the Center for a New American Security calls it, taking neither Ukraine’s nor Russia’s side.

“We live in a bubble, here in the U.S. and Europe, where we think the very stark moral and geopolitical stakes, and framework of what we’re seeing unfolding, is a universal cause,” Barry Pavel, a senior vice president at the Atlantic Council, told me. “Actually, most of the governments of the world are not with us.”

Today’s newsletter offers a guide to some of those countries and why they have committed to their stances.

India and Israel are prominent democracies that ally with the U.S. on many issues, particularly security. But they rely on Russia for security as well and have avoided arming Ukraine or imposing sanctions on Moscow. “In both cases, the key factor isn’t ideology but national interests,” says my colleague Max Fisher, who has written about Russia’s invasion.

India is the world’s largest buyer of Russian weapons, seeking to protect itself from Pakistan and China. India joined 34 other countries in abstaining from a United Nations vote that condemned Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, as you can see on the map below. And India appears to be rebuffing Western pleas to take a harder line.

Israel coordinates with Russia on Iran, its chief adversary, and in neighboring Syria (with which Russia has a strong relationship). Russian-speaking émigrés from the former Soviet Union also make up a sizable chunk of the Israeli electorate. Israel’s prime minister has avoided directly criticizing Putin, and though its government has mediated between Ukraine and Russia, little has come out of the effort.

Several Latin American, Southeast Asian and African countries have made similar choices. Bolivia, Vietnam and almost half of Africa’s 54 countries declined to support the U.N. resolution condemning Russia. Some rely on Russian military assistance, said Bruce Jones, a senior fellow at the Brookings Institution. Others don’t want to risk jeopardizing trade relations with China, which has parroted Russian propaganda about the war.

Those countries “might be more accurately described as disinterested,” Max says, unwilling to risk their security or economies “for the sake of a struggle that they see as mostly irrelevant.”

Some countries, citing the West’s history of imperialism and past failures to respect human rights, have justified opposing its response to Ukraine. South Africa’s president blamed NATO for Russia’s invasion, and its U.N. ambassador criticized the U.S. invasion of Iraq during a debate last month about Ukraine’s humanitarian crisis.

Other countries, including some that voted to condemn Russia’s invasion, accuse the West of acting counterproductively. Brazil’s U.N. ambassador has suggested that arming Ukraine and imposing sanctions on Russia risk escalating the war.

“There’s nothing intellectually incoherent between viewing Russia’s actions as outrageous and not necessarily fully siding with the West’s reaction to it,” Jones told me.

Autocratic leaders — including in the United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia and Nicaragua — may also feel threatened by Ukraine’s resistance and the West’s framing of the invasion as a struggle between democracy and authoritarianism, experts said. “They’re concerned that this could inspire opposition movements in their own countries,” Nietsche said.

 

Vladimir Putin and Xi Jinping in Beijing in February.

Vladimir Putin and Xi Jinping in Beijing in February.Credit...Alexei Druzhinin/Sputnik, via Agence France-Presse — Getty Images

China, with all its economic and military might, has seen the war as a chance to enhance its own geopolitical standing as a counterweight to the U.S. while still maintaining ties to Russia. The countries recently issued a joint statement proclaiming a friendship with “no limits.” But China has struggled with the delicate balancing act of honoring that commitment without fully endorsing Russia’s invasion: Beijing has denounced Western sanctions but has not appeared to have given Russia weapons or economic aid.

“China's support for Russia, while very important, is also carefully hedged and measured,” Max says.

Four countries — North Korea, Eritrea, Syria and Belarus — outright voted with Russia against the U.N. resolution condemning the invasion of Ukraine. Belarus is a former Soviet state whose autocratic leader asked Putin to help suppress protests in 2020 and allowed Russia to launch part of its invasion from within Belarus.

Russia intervened in Syria’s civil war on behalf of the Moscow-aligned government there, and Syria is sending fighters who may aid Russian forces in Ukraine.

It’s not unusual for countries to avoid picking sides on big global issues. Several stayed neutral during World War II; dozens sought to remain free of both U.S. and Soviet influence during the Cold War.

But if the war in Ukraine drags on, Jones said, neutral countries could come under stronger international pressure to condemn Moscow. And for countries with close ties to Russia, even neutrality can be an act of courage.

  • The fate of Mariupol, in the southeast, hinges on a battle at a steel factory, where Ukrainian forces are holding out.

  • Capturing Mariupol would create a land bridge between Russia’s stronghold in Crimea and eastern Ukraine.

  • Russian forces fired missiles at Lviv, in western Ukraine, killing at least six people. It’s part of a pattern of attacking cities even as they prepare for an offensive in the east.

  • In Russia, brutal crimes by soldiers are rarely investigated or acknowledged — let alone punished.

  • A Ukrainian village is haunted by the disappearance of five men who went to feed the cows.

  • The White House recommended that Americans over 60 get a second Covid booster shot. (Anyone 50 or older is eligible.)

To win the next election, Democrats need to deliver on their promises from the last one, Senator Elizabeth Warren argues.

Gail Collins and Bret Stephens discuss Elon Musk’s bid to buy Twitter.

 

Devon Henry and his company have taken down 23 monuments in the South.

 

Devon Henry and his company have taken down 23 monuments in the South.Credit...Sanjay Suchak

Monuments: A Black contractor has become Virginia’s go-to Confederate statue remover.

The future: A.I. is mastering language. Should we trust what it says?

Soul mates: More than 50 years after Otis Redding’s death, Zelma Redding hasn’t stopped loving him.

Scene report: A casual dinner series has become one of the most coveted invitations in Los Angeles.

Quiz time: The average score on our latest news quiz was 9.3. Can you do better?

A Times classic: Actually, cats like people!

Lives Lived: Kevin Lippert began by selling reprints of classics from the trunk of his car and became what one architect called an “impresario for the culture of architecture.” He died at 63.

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