李顯龍接班人 美國PIIE演講 圍堵中國失敗

李顯龍“準接班人”黃循財在美發聲：圍堵隻會讓中國開發本土科技，自定國際規則 

2022-04-19 15:50

【文/觀察者網 李煥宇】據新加坡《聯合早報》4月19日報道，已確定將出任新加坡下一任總理的黃循財在他的首個出訪行程中提出，將中國排除在現有國際體係之外，隻會令中國發展出以自身規則為基礎的一套平行體係。

本周一，新加坡財政部長黃循財開啟了他被確立為第四代領導班子領軍人後的首個出訪行程——美國智庫彼得森國際經濟研究所（PIIE）2022年宏觀周活動。他在致辭後的對話環節中提出，中國的增長趨勢不可阻擋，嚐試圍堵中國崛起不僅十分困難也不會有效，而且隻會讓中國更下定決心自力更生，開發本土科技並自行設立另一套國際規則。

他重申，中美關係是世界上最重要的雙邊關係，各國都希望雙方能繼續交流，找出在共同關注的議題上合作的方法。

黃循財講話現場 視頻截圖

黃循財稱：“我不知道我們最終是不是要生活在這樣的一個世界，這將是個非常不一樣的世界，而且對於每個人包括美國來說，都是高度不穩定的......事實是，中國會有自身的發展，美國沒有能力讓中國變得更像美國，但就算彼此存在差異，美國和中國都有共同關注的議題，包括如氣候變化等全球議題、應對大流行，甚至是核不擴散。”他相信，若能找出中美雙方能繼續競爭，卻又能相互依存，在開放的框架裏合作尋求互惠互利，整個世界都會更安全更美好。

黃循財還指出，如果當初美國沒有退出，《跨太平洋夥伴關係協定》（TPP）得以延續固然很好，但如今已有《跨太平洋夥伴全麵進展協定》（CPTPP），中國也提出了申請加入。該組織將通過適當的程序來處理中國的申請。除此之外，本區域內還有亞太經濟合作組織（APEC）、東亞峰會（East Asia Summit），以及拜登政府最近提出的“印太經濟框架”（Indo-Pacific Economic Framework），黃循財對此表示歡迎和支持。他說：“我們希望打造一個開放和包容的框架，讓所有大國能參與亞洲和亞太的事務。”

除了中美議題，黃循財還對發達經濟體的債務狀況表示擔憂。

近兩年，為了應對新冠大流行所帶來的經濟衝擊，世界多國政府絞盡腦汁擴大財政支出。但黃循財提醒，政府不可能一直擴大財政政策。在製定政策時，政府須確保公共支出是可持續的。

“不幸的是，許多發達經濟體的記錄並不樂觀，債務一直上升……我不確定這能持續多久。這不是免費的午餐。最終必須有人為此付出代價。”

“大國有更多的自由度。美國擁有一個大陸規模的經濟和全球儲備貨幣，就比新加坡擁有更多的自由度，但仍然會有極限。在某個時間點，我認為各國將不得不找到方法來縮減支出，並確保能重建財政空間以應對未來的衝擊。”

“不幸的是，許多發達經濟體的記錄並不樂觀，債務一直上升……我不確定這能持續多久。這不是免費的午餐。最終必須有人為此付出代價。”

“大國有更多的自由度。美國擁有一個大陸規模的經濟和全球儲備貨幣，就比新加坡擁有更多的自由度，但仍然會有極限。在某個時間點，我認為各國將不得不找到方法來縮減支出，並確保能重建財政空間以應對未來的衝擊。”

他婉轉指出，當舉債達到一個限度，任何政府都可能失去債務償還能力的信譽。雖然目前市場對中央銀行的公信力仍有一定信心，但這樣的信譽是各個央行多年來確保通脹能保持穩定，所建立起來的，央行不應該視之為理所當然，特別是發達經濟體的中央銀行必須展示果斷和決心，以解決目前通脹持續升溫的問題。

黃循財講話現場 圖片來源：聯合早報

黃循財還稱，各國必須重新定義財政政策，更新社會契約。為應對全球經濟麵臨的增長、包容和可持續發展三大結構性挑戰，國家與政府財政支出功能必須重新定位到為社會提供公共產品和建設長期集體能力上。

他說，各國之間和各國國內的貧富差距情況正在加劇。多數國家的代際流動性也減弱，社會階層越來越固化。疲弱和不平均的收入增長、高度的不平等和社會流動性的缺乏都造成嚴重風險。

“人們如果認為自己成功的概率不大，無論怎麽努力都無法躋身社會上層，下一代不會過得更好，社會穩定將受到影響，一切就會開始分崩瓦解。”

“人們如果認為自己成功的概率不大，無論怎麽努力都無法躋身社會上層，下一代不會過得更好，社會穩定將受到影響，一切就會開始分崩瓦解。”

在黃循財看來，各國必須在解決急迫問題和打造共同能力支撐長遠發展之間找到正確的平衡。國家應發揮更積極、有意義的角色，以達到重要的長期目標，包括提高生產力、應對不平等、重新啟動社會流動性，及催化綠色經濟。

黃循財是現任新加坡財政部長。4月14日，他財獲得內閣成員絕大多數的支持，正式推舉為第四代團隊領導。16日，新加坡總理李顯龍在總統府召開發布會時宣布，下一次大選將最遲在2025年11月舉行，屆時如果執政黨人民行動黨再次贏得大選，就由黃循財擔任總理。

新加坡財政部長：國家無止境舉債終會付出代價

總台記者 鄧雪梅 央視新聞客戶端  2022-04-19 　

　　新加坡財政部長黃循財於美國時間18日在彼得森國際經濟研究所（PIIE）舉辦的2022年宏觀周上指出，各國在製定財政政策時須確保可持續的公共支出，尤其不可無止境地舉債。“不幸的是”許多發達經濟體的記錄並不樂觀，債務一直上升，最終總得有人付出代價。他呼籲貨幣政策和財政政策都應為應對增長與滯脹問題發揮作用。

　　黃循財說，近兩年，為了應付新冠疫情帶來的經濟衝擊，多國政府擴大財政支出。加上近期俄烏局勢緊張，全球正麵對通貨膨脹、增長放緩，甚至停滯性通脹的威脅。在財政方麵，政府可以采取更寬鬆的政策，以應付可能對實體經濟的影響，並確保通脹預期得到良好控製。但黃循財也提醒，政府不可能一直擴大財政政策。在製定政策時，政府須確保公共支出是可持續的：“不幸的是，許多發達經濟體的記錄並不樂觀，債務一直上升……我不確定這能持續多久。這不是免費的午餐。最終必須有人為此付出代價。”

　　黃循財也婉轉指出，當舉債達到一個限度，任何政府都可能失去債務償還能力的信譽。

　　黃循財提醒，在貨幣政策方麵，目前市場對各國中央銀行的公信力仍有一定的信心，而這樣的信譽是各個央行多年來確保通脹能保持穩定，所建立起來的。但央行不應該視之為理所當然，特別是發達經濟體的中央銀行必須展示果斷和決心，以解決目前通脹持續升溫的問題。

　　談到亞太經濟體時，黃循財說他不認為國際主要央行為了應付通脹而加息，可能導致新興市場資金流出。他表示包括東南亞在內的亞太地區許多經濟體如今的基本麵更穩健，更有能力應付加息的影響。

Macro Week 2022: Lawrence Wong Speech

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YZHQ-eG7pUU&t=416s

2,689次觀看  上次直播時間：21小時前

 Peterson Institute for International Economics

At this critical juncture for the global economy and monetary policy, the Peterson Institute for International Economics is convening central bankers and finance officials from around the world for our annual Macro Week—a series of speeches and onstage discussions moderated by PIIE President Adam S. Posen. Lawrence Wong (Minister for Finance, Singapore) speaks on April 18, 2022. For more information, visit: https://www.piie.com/events/macro-wee...

World faces sharper trade-off between growth and inflation: Lawrence Wong

https://www.channelnewsasia.com/singapore/sharper-trade-growth-inflation-lawrence-wong-united-states-visit-2632126

Minister for Finance Lawrence Wong at the Peterson Institute for International Economics Macro Week 2022 on Monday, Apr 18, 2022. (Photo: Ministry of Finance)

 

 Tang See Kit   @SeeKitCNA, 18 Apr 2022 Updated: 19 Apr 2022

SINGAPORE: The world faces a sharper trade-off between growth and inflation given how it is “almost a certainty” that inflation will be higher for longer, said Finance Minister Lawrence Wong on Monday (Apr 18).

Many countries around the world were already grappling with the issue of lacklustre growth before the COVID-19 pandemic. But the virus outbreak and the war in Ukraine have since brought on another challenge of higher inflation.

Global growth is also threatened by the effect of domestic macroeconomic policies in some major economies.

“In short, the risks for both growth and inflation are weighed significantly on the downside,” Mr Wong said, noting that this complicates an already extremely difficult task of balancing growth and inflation for central banks, particularly those in the advanced world.

It remains to be seen whether central banks can successfully guide their economies to a soft landing, he added.

Compounding these growth challenges is a “more fundamental and worrying shift” in the global economy – the ebbing tide of globalisation. While he does not expect a reversal of globalisation, Mr Wong cautioned that the world “could be heading into a new era of decoupled globalisation”.

“The hope for some decades has been that trade could tamp down geopolitical rivalry but we are now seeing another logic at play, with geopolitics having the potential to undermine trade instead,” he said.

“It is too early to tell what decoupled globalisation will look like, but we must be prepared for a more divided world economically that will mirror a more divided world politically.”

This will have an impact on global growth, with the poorest and most vulnerable countries likely being hit the hardest. This will in turn make it more difficult for developing countries to converge with the advanced world, he said.

Mr Wong was laying out the threats that governments and societies today face when it comes to growth in a keynote speech delivered at the Peterson Institute for International Economics’ (PIIE) Macro Week in Washington DC. The annual event features a series of speeches and discussions by finance ministers and central bankers from around the world.

In his near 30-minute speech, the Finance Minister, who is on a visit to the United States, also highlighted two other structural challenges faced by the world – inclusion and sustainability.

On the former, Mr Wong noted that there is a growing divide between the richest and poorest both across and within nations, partly due to rapid technological advances.

Inclusive growth has also been made more difficult by the pandemic, with unskilled workers and women having suffered disproportionately. He also pointed out how in Southeast Asia alone, the pandemic has pushed nearly five million more people into extreme poverty.

“The consequence of these factors – weak and uneven income growth, high inequality, and weak social mobility – pose significant risks for us all,” said Mr Wong.

"When people feel that the odds are stacked against them, when they cannot reach the top no matter how hard they try, when their children will never do better than them, social stability is affected and things start to fall apart."

Related:

Finance Minister Lawrence Wong to visit the US, attend G20 and World Bank-IMF meetings

Governments, businesses need to work together to tackle climate change: Lawrence Wong

On sustainability, the need for meaningful action on climate change has grown as global warming continues apace, he said.

But with so much attention being focused on the war in Ukraine and the COVID-19 pandemic, the latest “sobering” report issued by the United Nations’ Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) on the increasing severity of climate change did not attract headlines the way it should have, said Mr Wong.

Given the Ukraine conflict, reliance on fossil fuels is expected to increase even further in the short term. 

“This may be necessary to cope with the short-term energy shortages and to keep the lights on, but it also means that we must redouble our efforts in the medium and longer-term, to set the right price for carbon, regulate emissions and invest in cleaner, low-carbon technologies,” he added.

“NO EASY ANSWERS”

There are “no easy answers” when it comes to responding to these challenges, Mr Wong said.

He noted that while expansionary monetary policy has succeeded in buffering economies and financial systems against severe shocks for more than a decade, it has had its downsides and has likely reached its limits.

“As the balance of macro-risks shift towards inflation, the era of easy money will come to an end. Fiscal policy therefore has to play a more important role,” he said. 

Part of this is about being able to respond quickly with immediate stimulus when needed, Mr Wong added, noting that many countries have done so over the past two years to stave off the most severe downsides of COVID-19 and mitigate longer-term economic scarring. 

But such extraordinary levels of spending will be hard to sustain over extended durations. With interest rates rising, there will be a need to taper spending or raise revenues to ensure more sustainable government budgets over time and to gradually rebuild fiscal space to deal with future shocks.

More crucially, Mr Wong noted that the issue “is not just about the amount of spending, but how and what we spend on”.

“We need to re-purpose fiscal policy and renew the social contract,” he said. 

“This is not a call for bigger government per se. Rather it’s about the state playing a more active and purposeful role to achieve important longer-term goals – to raise productivity, to tackle inequality and rekindle social mobility, and to catalyse the green economy.”

 

Related:

Singapore will do more in fiscal, monetary policies if Ukraine conflict worsens: Lawrence Wong

With that, Mr Wong gave three suggestions on how the world can drive inclusive and sustainable growth.

The first is to re-purpose fiscal policy and the role of the state towards building public goods and longer-term collective capacity. These include spending to rejuvenate and expand critical infrastructure, investing in early child development, as well as healthcare.

Such investments by the state and designing the right incentives, whether in eldercare, healthcare, early childhood development or infrastructure, are the bedrock for building inclusive and sustainable growth, said the Finance Minister.

Mr Wong’s second suggestion is to foster a “refreshed common agenda” between the public and private sectors, given that it will not be possible for governments to fund investments or to resolve many of today’s complex challenges alone.

This will involve going beyond traditional models of public-private partnerships for specific projects so as to forge “wider, deeper and longer-term collaboration between the government and industry, and work towards shared goals that advance the broader interests of society”. 

One such area that requires stronger public-private partnerships is continuing education and lifelong learning. Mr Wong said that this is a key priority in Singapore and steps taken include the Government setting up individual SkillsFuture learning accounts for all, with periodic top-ups by the Government.

On the other hand, authorities have been working with employers and training institutes to design training programmes that are relevant to the industry. 

Mr Wong’s third suggestion is to reinvigorate the open and rules-based international order, with stronger commitments to multilateral solutions.

“Today, the world seems more divided than ever before. The future has never seemed more uncertain. But amidst our differences, we must find enough common ground with each other to solve our collective problems,” he said.

Minister for Finance Lawrence Wong at the Peterson Institute for International Economics Macro Week 2022 on Apr 18, 2022. (Photo: Ministry of Finance)

 

Later, in a question-and-answer segment moderated by PIIE president Adam Posen, Mr Wong was asked about the sanctions imposed on Russia by various countries, including Singapore, and what that means moving forward.

In his reply, the minister said the “unprecedented nature of the scale and strength” of the sanctions in this instance showed an “effective response” to the Russian invasion.

“But we do ask ourselves and all of us have to ask ourselves, how should we think about applying similar sanctions in the future?”

From Singapore’s point of view, applying such extensive sanctions will require a “high threshold”, ideally a United Nations Security Council resolution. But this is “not always forthcoming”, said Mr Wong.

In this instance, Russia, which is a permanent member of the UN Security Council, vetoed the council’s draft resolution in February.

“If you’re not able to get the United Nations resolution, then at least consider the criteria and the basis in which such sanctions should be applied,” Mr Wong said, citing “important” considerations for Singapore such as clear violations of the United Nations Charter and when the fundamental principles of territorial integrity, sovereignty and independence are at stake.

“These are fundamental principles and therefore, you could consider making a case for applying such sanctions,” he added.

“After all, if crazy decisions and historical errors are the basis for invading another country, all of us everywhere in the world will feel very insecure. So I think if we set the right conditions, we will have a stronger basis for applying sanctions in future,” Mr Wong said.

“In fact, you may even get more countries coming on board because countries everywhere would be able to support such core principles, rather than drawing lines between democracies versus autocracies or authoritarian states, or saying ‘Join me because we are a group of like-minded allies’.”

Mr Wong is on a 10-day visit to the US until Apr 25 – his first overseas trip since he was announced as leader of the fourth generation of Singapore’s political leadership.

Apart from his speech at PIIE's event, Mr Wong will be in Washington DC and New York to meet members of the US Administration. He will also attend the World Bank-IMF Spring Meetings as well as the Second Finance Ministers and Central Bank Governors Meeting under the 2022 G20 Indonesian Presidency.

Accompanied by officials from the Ministry of Finance and the Ministry of Home Affairs, Mr Wong will also take the opportunity to meet private sector business leaders and Singaporeans based in New York.

Source: CNA/sk(gr)

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