2017年美中貿易逆差50年最高 The Booming of U.S. Economy is the reason

2017年美中貿易逆差創下50年來最高紀錄

信源：法廣網｜編輯：2018-01-13

多年來居高不下的美中貿易順差2017年攀上新的高峰。根據中國海關12日發布的數據顯示，2017年美中貿易逆差擴大了10%，至2,758億美元。《華爾街日報》稱，在美國考慮通過一係列處罰和其他行動抑製美中貿易失衡之際，最新的貿易數據將使特朗普政府更有理由批評中國的貿易行為。

在美國的貿易夥伴中，美國對中國的貿易逆差最大，2017年則是近50年有記錄以來貿易逆差最高的一年，刷新了2015年2,610億美元的前曆史新高。但美國的數據顯示，2015年對華貿易逆差為3,670億美元。

目前美中貿易關係已然麵臨巨大壓力，兩國官員均表示，即便不爆發全麵的貿易戰，也有可能引發一輪報複行動。未來幾周，特朗普政府需要決定是否對進口自中國的太陽能板、鋼材和鋁材施以處罰。此外，圍繞中國是否強迫美國公司共享自主技術和信息以換取中國市場準入的調查也在進行當中。

特朗普曾在競選總統期間將中國描述成國際貿易的掠奪者。

在中國最新貿易數據出爐前，特朗普接受《華爾街日報》采訪時表示，如果不是因為在向朝鮮施壓促其放棄核武研發問題上需要中國的幫助，他原本希望對中國采取更嚴厲措施來糾正美中貿易失衡現象。特朗普表示，美國對中國的強硬程度遠勝以往，但仍未達到他最初的期望程度。 在與美國官員和企業舉行的閉門會議上，中國官員已表明立場，即無論美國采取什麽懲罰措施，中方都會采取報複行動。

Has China Hit Its Peak? How Demography, Economics & Geography Will Limit China's...

The U.S. Economy Is Booming, Which Is Why The U.S. Trade Deficit With China Grew In 2017 

By Salvatore Babones JAN 12, 2018 @ 09:18 AM 

https://www.forbes.com/sites/salvatorebabones/2017/12/31/china-max-how-demography-economics-and-geography-will-combine-to-limit-chinas-growing-power/2/#170cfb821ad8

In this Wednesday, Dec. 13, 2017, photo, container ships are unloaded at the Port of Oakland in Oakland, Calif. (AP Photo/Ben Margot)

China's trade surplus with the United States rose by 13% in 2017 to a record $288 billion, according to Chinese official data. The actual figure reported on the Chinese side was 1.87 trillion yuan, which most Western news outlets converted to $276 billion. What's $12 billion between friends? Take your pick; both numbers are big.

But not big enough. The U.S. reports trade figures monthly, and U.S. data showed that the trade deficit was already $342 billion by the end of November. Consolidating the $30 billion U.S. surplus with Hong Kong (most of which goes to China) puts the all-China deficit at $312 billion for the first 11 months of 2017. Add in another $30 billion or so for December, and the full-year 2017 U.S. trade deficit with China and Hong Kong is likely to come in at around $340 billion.

That means that the final 2017 U.S. deficit with China/HKG may be up 17%-18% from the $280 billion consolidated China/HKG deficit recorded for 2016.  The official U.S. trade deficit with China reported by the U.S. Census Bureau on February 6 will be big, growing and politically messy. And it shouldn't worry anyone at all.

U.S. President Donald Trump hosts an event to celebrate Congress passing the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act with Republican members of the House and Senate on the South Lawn of the White House December 20, 2017 in Washington, DC. (Photo by Chip Somodevilla/Getty Images)

Trade deficits mean different things in different economies at different times. In a weak economy hit by major shocks and falling into recession, big trade deficits can be a sign that a country is spiraling out of control toward a balance of payments crisis. But that hardly applies to the U.S. today.

In a strong economy, a big trade deficit simply means that more capital is flowing into a country than is flowing out.That's because when the capital account is positive, the current account has to be negative to balance it out. And a negative current account means a trade deficit.

They question for America's economic health is: Why capital is flowing in? Is capital pouring into the United States right now seeking investment opportunities, or is capital being sucked into the U.S. because of an economic crisis requiring external funds to stabilize a rapidly deteriorating situation?

Coming amidst the fastest economic growth in three years and four Fed rate hikes in 12 months, it seems clear that America's burgeoning capital account surplus reflects the fact that international investors are looking for a piece of the action in the world's more advanced, most dynamic mature economy.

If the Trump tax cuts succeed in boosting growth and (especially) in convincing companies to repatriate profitscurrently held overseas, look for the U.S. trade deficit to widen even further in 2018 as the money pours in. That may be good, bad or neither for long-term economic growth, depending on who you believe. But it will still have nothing to do with China. The U.S. trade deficit is proudly made in America.

 

Salvatore Babones hosts the weekly livestream global affairs interview show Midnight in America Friday nights on YouTube. Follow him on Twitter @sbabones.