金價有可能重回$700報(ZT)

Commodity Strategists: Gold May Regain $700, Taiheiyo Says

Aug. 3 (Bloomberg) -- Gold may rise to $700 an ounce in the second half of this year as oil prices gain on Middle East tensions and the pace of U.S. interest rate increases slows, said Toshimitsu Kawanabe from Japanese broker Taiheiyo Bussan Co.

``That's as long as the metal doesn't fall below $600 an ounce this month,'' said Kawanabe, 48, the commodity brokerage's chief analyst who uses charts to help predict price direction. Gold for immediate delivery reached a 26-year high of $730.40 an ounce on May 12 and traded at about $650 on Thursday.

Global energy costs may increase as Iran confronts the U.S. and Europe over its nuclear program and fighting between Israel and Hezbollah in Lebanon escalates. Iran has threatened to disrupt oil exports if the standoff worsens. The country is the fourth-biggest producer behind Saudi Arabia, Russia and the U.S.

Gold has risen 49 percent in the past year as investors diversify their assets away from bonds, stocks and currencies and record oil prices contribute to higher inflation. Some investors buy precious metals in times of inflation or political conflict between nations as a store of value and a hedge.

Oil prices traded at $75.60 a barrel on Thursday, near a record high of $78.40 reached on July 14.

A UN Security Council resolution passed on July 31 gives Iran a month to end nuclear enrichment activities or face the threat of economic penalties. Israel retaliated against Hezbollah, after the Shiite Muslim group captured two Israeli soldiers on July 12. It's sent ground troops into Lebanon to clear Hezbollah gunmen from their strongholds near the border.

Strengthening Yen

The yen may gain against the dollar after Bank of Japan policy board member Atsushi Mizuno signaled the central bank may raise interest rates again this year. Japan's currency has risen 1.5 percent since the central bank lifted rates July 14 for the first time in almost six years.

At the same time the pace of interest rate increases in the U.S. may be slowing after a government report last week showed the U.S. economy expanded less than analysts had forecast in the second quarter and reduced the chances the Federal Reserve would raise interest rates.

``The three main factors to consider in the remainder of the year in terms of gold are a weak dollar, crude oil prices and inflation,'' said Kawanabe, who joined Taiheiyo Bussan in 2001 and was previously a sales manager at Mitsubishi Corporation Futures & Securities Ltd.

Dollar Move

Gold futures surged to $873 an ounce in 1980, when U.S. consumer prices jumped more than 12 percent. The precious metal has moved counter to the U.S. currency, rising 25 percent this year, while the dollar has dropped 8.3 percent against the euro.

A price for the precious metal of around $700 an ounce is a realistic figure at some point over the rest of this year, said Kawanabe. The idea of gold bullion at $1,000 an ounce, at least this year, is ``pretty difficult,'' he said.

``For that to happen, crude oil would have to push through $80 a barrel, and rise to $100,'' he said.