美國股票知識、技巧和投資方法

美國股市的入門知識、投資理念,交易方法和大勢分析等。博客的主人是 三維預測 3DFN.com 美股分析師Raymond Wang
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如何從股市中賺錢:耐心和紀律最重要

(2007-12-25 18:23:47) 下一個


編者前言:

如果你相信這篇文章的統計結果,你就應該明白,要想在股市中長期獲利,操作技巧和趨勢預測都不是最重要的,唯有正確的思想意識才是投資的最高境界,這其中又以耐心和紀律最為重要。而所謂“紀律”就是一旦確立自己的信號係統,經過曆史數據和實時交易的反複驗證,如果它的成功概率非常大,你就要堅持不懈、持之以恒地運用它。不要聽到個什麽消息,或者看到走勢圖的“異常”波動,就貿然行動,完全不顧當時有沒有進場交易的信號。這種耍小聰明的心態最終肯定要輸,因為這又回到了計算概率的問題上:你憑什麽就知道這筆交易肯定會贏?你聽到的消息或者看到的圖表是否經過曆史的反複驗證?它的成功概率有多大?如果你不能肯定地回答這些問題,你就不要進場交易,因為你純粹是在賭博,這一次或許可以僥幸過關,但這種心態最終會讓你兩手空空。


Many Roads to Riches

By Mark Hulbert, MarketWatch.com, July 16, 2003


When I started tracking investment newsletters on June 30, 1980, I thought my research would provide answers to what previously had proven to be intractable investment questions:

- Is fundamental analysis better than technical analysis?
- Is successful market timing possible?
- Is buy-and-hold better than in-and-out trading?

Twenty-three years later and I am no closer to answering these questions.

But one thing has changed. I now believe that it is good news that these questions do not get answered once and for all.

After all, if there were only one road to riches, it would get awfully crowded.

Consider the multiplicity of approaches that are represented by the newsletters whose model portfolios, according to the Hulbert Financial Digest, have made the most money over the last 23 years.

At the top of the list is a newsletter that advocates the long-term buying and holding of good quality stocks. The average holding period of positions in the first of this newsletter's model portfolios is nearly six years. Neither market timing nor technical analysis plays an apparent role.

Lest you conclude that this newsletter's performance provides clear and unambiguous answers to the age-old investment questions, consider the second-place newsletter.

Its approach involves a combination of both fundamental and technical analysis, as well as market timing. The average holding period of its recommended stocks is less than six months. And in third and fourth place are newsletters whose approaches are based exclusively on technical analysis.

It is difficult to think of a group of top performers with more disparate approaches.

But that's not all. Clouding the picture even more are the newsletters at the bottom of the rankings. At the very bottom is a newsletter whose approach is primarily, if not exclusively, technical. But right above it is a newsletter that relied only on fundamental analysis.

Above that one is yet another newsletter that employs a combination of both technical and fundamental analysis.

In fact, after 23 years, I am now inclined to believe that almost any of the major approaches to investing can - in the right hands - be successful. Yet in the wrong hands, those same approaches can be big disappointments.

This insight leads to the drawing of an important Investment Lesson: The choice of investment approach is less important than what you or I add to the equation when following it.

What is this something else that can make all the difference between success and failure? Though a full discussion of why I think so is beyond the scope of this column, I believe the answer is discipline.

Discipline is what keeps us from reacting impulsively and emotionally to what happens in our portfolios. What separates the adults from the children in the investment world, so to speak, is a willingness to stick to a strategy during those temporary times it may be out of synch with the market.

I recognize that a plea for discipline is not nearly as exciting as a bold prediction about which way the market is going to go or which stocks will double overnight.

Call it boring if you will. But, regardless, discipline is the key to your long-term investment success.

This is as true today as it was in 1980. And I'll bet it will be just as true 23 years from now.


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