今天寫的一篇英文思考on AI Bubble

Is the AI Bubble 1880 or 1999? What the Lightbulb Teaches Us About Investing ????

The AI market is at a crossroads. Jamie Dimon warns of worryingly high valuations, while others argue the true speculative mania hasnt even begun. When experts disagree, I look to history.

Technological revolutions change fields, but they follow a patterned soul. Lets go back 150 years to the original High Tech: The Electric Light.

1. Invention vs. Commercialization

Joseph Swan invented the lightbulb in 1878, but it was Thomas Edison who won the market. Why? Because Edison understood that a bulb is useless without an ecosystem. He didnt just sell light; he built the grid, the meters, and the power station.

The Lesson: In AI, the winner might not be the one with the best bulb (model), but the one who builds the most cost-effective, usable ecosystem.

2. The Speculative Frenzy

By 1882, a Lightbulb Bubble hit London and NY. Dozens of companies went public; market caps quadrupled in weeks. Sound familiar? Much like todays AI hype, capital poured in faster than the technology could scale.

3. Efficiency Always Wins (The War of Currents)
Edisons DC system was safe but inefficient over distances. Tesla and Westinghouse championed AC. Edison fought a brutal PR war (even using AC for the first electric chair to scare the public). But math and cost dont care about PR. AC was cheaper and more efficient. It won.

4. The Creative Destruction Cycle
From 1900s autos to 1920s aviation and the 1990s Dotcom:

1?? Invention sparks imagination.
2?? Capital Floods the sector, creating a bubble.
3?? The Crash wipes out the me-too companies.
4?? Utility remains. The surviving infrastructure (Amazon, GE, Ford) defines the next century.

My Takeaway for Investors:

Capital bubbles are a feature of progress, not a bug. They fund the trial and error needed to build world-changing infrastructure.
Investors tend to overestimate tech in the short term (the bubble) but underestimate its impact in the long term (the utility). Whether we are in a bubble or not, the Mean Reversion for tech is always toward Efficiency, Lower Cost, and Scalability.

Are we chasing the light or just the heat?