Covid-19 大瘟疫對世界經濟的影響

截至今天，大約兩年前全麵席卷全球的 covid-19 大流行已造成近 600 萬人死亡，確診病例超過 4 億。大流行爆發後，世界各國政府采取了嚴厲的、有時甚至是嚴厲的措施——包括保持社交距離、就地避難、關閉和關閉命令——來阻止冠狀病毒的傳播。隨著新冠病毒引發的危機的展開，許多家庭和公司沒有做好準備，無法承受這種流行病持續時間和規模帶來的收入衝擊。大流行是真正的全球經濟衝擊。作為回應，許多政府實施了前所未有的大規模刺激計劃，同時放鬆了貨幣政策。然而，2020年世界經濟陷入衰退。

這篇短文的目的是評估 covid-19 大流行的經濟影響。為此，重點關注2020年的主要宏觀經濟變量。

跨國匯總統計

2020年，在有有效數據的196個經濟體中，GDP增速平均為-4.96%，中位數為-4.03%。最好的經濟體（圭亞那）增長了 43.48%，而最差的經濟體（中國澳門特別行政區）收縮了54%。平均失業率為 8.41%，中位數為 6.74%。失業率最高的經濟體是南非，為 29.22%。失業率最低的經濟體是卡塔爾，為 0.21%。

以當前美元計算，平均 GDP 為 4358.67 億美元。最大的經濟體是美國，GDP 為 209,530 億美元。人均 GDP 為 15.340 美元，而中位數僅為 5,467 美元。

當 GDP 使用購買力平價匯率計算並以 2017 年不變美元衡量時，跨國平均數為 6644.07 億美元。根據這一指標，最大的經濟體是中國，GDP 為 230,200 億美元。人均國內生產總值為 20,098 美元，而中位數為 12,578 美元。

經濟增長

2020年，全球GDP下降了3.29%。在大流行之前的五年中，世界經濟以平均每年 3.05% 的速度增長。在有有效數據的 196 個經濟體中，有 158 個（或 81%）經濟體出現了經濟下滑。隻有 39 個（或 19%）經濟體勉強實現了正增長。後一組包括中國（2.35%）、土耳其（1.79%）、愛爾蘭（5.87%）、埃及（3.57%）、孟加拉國（3.51%）、越南（2.91%）、新西蘭（1.86%）和伊朗（3.39%），括號內為增長率。

2019 年，全球 GDP 為 875680 億美元。2020 年降至 847,470 億美元，比上年減少 28,210 億美元。如果我們假設在沒有大流行的情況下，世界經濟在 2020 年將以 3.05% 的速度增長，這是大流行之前的五年平均增長率，那麽對世界經濟的損失將達到驚人的 54920 億美元，超過 日本經濟。

如果使用購買力平價 (PPP) 匯率計算 GDP，並以 2017 年不變美元衡量，2019 年全球 GDP 為 1,298,280 億美元，但 2020 年降至 1,256,540 億美元。這意味著 2020 年全球經濟規模縮小超過由於大流行，4萬億美元。使用這一 GDP 衡量指標，並假設 2020 年世界經濟將以大流行之前的五年平均速度增長，我們估計世界經濟遭受的損失超過 8 萬億美元。

失業

政府對大流行爆發的最初反應，包括就地避難、關閉和關閉命令，造成了巨大的失業，尤其是在大流行的早期階段。盡管下半年勞動力市場逐漸好轉，但全球失業率從 2019 年的 5.36% 上升至 2020 年的 6.573%。

按地區劃分的數據顯示，2020 年阿拉伯世界的失業率最高，為 11.49%。但需要注意的是，這一高數字並非完全歸因於大流行。該地區在 2019 年的失業率也最高（10.63%）。北美失業人數最多，失業率從 2019 年的 3.89% 上升到 2020 年的 8.21%。尤其是美國的失業率從 2019 年的 3.678% 上升到 2020 年的 8.05%。

可以肯定的是，年度失業數據掩蓋了勞動力市場的直接衝擊。例如，在最糟糕的時候，美國的失業率超過了 10%。此外，低收入和技能較少的人受到大流行的影響尤為嚴重。

人均國內生產總值

以 2017 年不變國際美元計算的人均 GDP 而言，2020 年世界比 2019 年減少了 708 美元，收入下降了 4.3%。與其他收入類別相比，高收入經濟體的人均 GDP 下降更為明顯。基於區域數據的結果是一致的。特別是經合組織、歐盟和北美的人均 GDP 分別下降了 2,215 美元、2,704 美元和 2,430 美元。

請記住，盡管低收入國家以美元計算的損失較小，但它們一開始就很窮。與富裕經濟體相比，損失一美元的收入對他們來說意味著更多。 事實上，以百分比損失衡量，2020年受災最嚴重的地區是太平洋島國，人均收入下降了13.2%。

 

【注】原文是英文（附在下麵）。從中抽取了部分內容，偷懶用 Google 翻譯成中文，幾乎沒做任何改動。機器翻譯效率真高，幾秒鍾就搞掂。大體瀏覽了一遍，翻譯的還真不賴。

附：原文

As of today, the covid-19 pandemic, which hit the world with full force about two years ago, has caused nearly 6 million deaths, with more than 400 million confirmed cases. After the outbreak of the pandemic, governments around the world took drastic and sometimes draconian measures—including social distancing, shelter-in-place, shut-down and closure orders—to stem the spread of the coronavirus. As the covid-induced crisis unfolded, many households and firms were ill-prepared to withstand an income shock of the length and scale of the pandemic. The pandemic has been a truly global economic shock. In response, many government implemented unprecedented, large-scale stimulus packages along with the easing of monetary policy. Nevertheless, the world economy fell into recession in 2020.

The purpose of this short article is to provide an assessment of the economic impacts of the covid-19 pandemic. To this end, it focuses on the major macroeconomic variables in 2020.

Cross-country summary statistics

In 2020, among the 196 economies with valid data, the GDP growth rate is, on average, -4.96%, with a median of -4.03%. The best economy (Guyana) expanded by 43.48% while the worst (Macao SAR, China) contracted by 54%. The average unemployment rate is 8.41% and the median is 6.74%. The economy with the highest unemployment, at 29.22%, is South Africa. The economy with the least unemployment, at 0.21%, is Qatar.

When measured in current dollars, the average GDP is $435,867 million. The largest economy is the United States, with a GDP of $20,953 billion. The average per capita GDP is $15.340 while the median is only $5,467.

When GDP is calculated using the purchasing power parity exchange rates and measured in constant 2017 dollars, the cross-country average is $664,407 million. According to this metric, the largest economy is China, with a GDP of $23,020 billion. The average per capita GDP is $20,098, whereas the median is $12,578.

Economic growth

In 2020, global GDP fell by 3.29%. In the five years prior to the pandemic, the world economy grew at an average rate of 3.05% per year. Among the 196 economies with valid data, 158 (or 81%) of them suffered an economic downturn. Only 39 (or 19%) economies eked out a positive growth. The latter group includes China (2.35%), Turkey (1.79%), Ireland (5.87%), Egypt (3.57%), Bangladesh (3.51%), Vietnam (2.91%), New Zealand (1.86%), and Iran (3.39%), with growth rate in parentheses.

In 2019, global GDP was 87,568 billion in current dollars. It fell to $84,747 billion in 2020, a shrink of $2,821 billion compared to the previous year. If we assume that without the pandemic the world economy would have grown at 3.05% in 2020, which is the five-year average rate prior to the pandemic, the damage to the world economy amounts to a staggering $5,492 billion, more than the size of Japan's economy.

When GDP is calculated using the purchasing power parity (PPP) exchange rates and measured in constant 2017 dollars, global GDP was $129,828 billion in 2019, but fell to $125,654 billion in 2020. This implies that the global economy in 2020 was smaller by more than $4 trillion due to the pandemic. Using this measure of GDP and assuming that the world economy grows at the five-year average rate prior to the pandemic in 2020, we obtain an estimate of the damage to the world economy that exceeds $8 trillion.

Unemployment

The initial government responses to the outbreak of the pandemic, including shelter-in-place, shut-down and closure orders, caused tremendous job losses, especially in the early stage of the pandemic. Though the labor market gradually improved in the second half of the year, the world unemployment rate rose to 6.573% in 2020, from 5.36% in 2019.

Breaking down by regional data shows that the Arab world had the highest unemployment, at 11.49%, in 2020. It should be noted, however, that this high figure is not totally attributable to the pandemic. The region had the highest unemployment (10.63%) in 2019 as well. It is North America that suffered the most in terms of job losses as its unemployment rose from 3.89% in 2019 to 8.21% in 2020. In particular, the unemployment rate in the United States escalated from 3.678% in 2019 to 8.05% in 2020.

To be sure, the annual unemployment figures belie the immediate shocks in the labor market. At the worst point, for instance, the unemployment rate in the U.S. exceeded 10%. Additionally, people with low income and less skills were disproportionately affected by the pandemic.

GDP per capita

In terms of GDP per capita measured in constant 2017 international dollars, the world was $708 poorer in 2020 than it was in 2019, a drop of 4.3% in income. The drop in per capita GDP is more pronounced in high-income economies than other income categories. Results based on regional data are consistent. In particular, per capita GDP dropped by $2,215, $2,704, and $2,430 in OECD, EU, and North America, respectively.

Bear in mind that though low-income countries suffered less in dollar terms, they are poor to begin with. A loss of a dollar in income means much more to them than rich economies. In fact, when measured in percentage loss, the region that suffered the most in 2020 is Pacific island small states, with a drop of 13.2% in per capita income.