2025年11月 數據不會說謊 加拿大暴力犯罪激增

數據不會說謊：加拿大暴力犯罪激增

2025年11月13日

https://thehub.ca/2025/11/13/the-numbers-dont-lie-violent-crime-has-surged-nationwide/

從維多利亞到聖約翰斯，加拿大人都在擔憂暴力犯罪。數據印證了他們的擔憂：城市暴力犯罪正在上升。

本周，麥克唐納-勞裏埃研究所發布了由我和理查德·奧達斯共同撰寫的《城市暴力犯罪報告》第二卷。我們利用加拿大統計局來自加拿大20個最大普查都市區（CMA）的數據——這些都市區覆蓋了加拿大近三分之二的人口——分析了過去十年中凶殺、性侵犯、嚴重襲擊和搶劫案件的變化，以及總體暴力犯罪率和暴力犯罪嚴重程度指數。

結果令人沮喪。我們利用三年滾動平均值顯示，幾乎所有主要城市地區的暴力犯罪率均有所上升，而且這一問題不再局限於全國最大的幾個城市中心。過去十年間，我們研究的20個都市區（CMA）的暴力犯罪率和性侵犯率均有所上升。就暴力犯罪嚴重程度（衡量更嚴重暴力犯罪的指標）而言，20個都市區中有19個在過去五年和過去十年中均有所上升。

從地域上看，草原地區的四個城市的暴力犯罪情況最為嚴重。裏賈納、薩斯卡通、埃德蒙頓和溫尼伯的暴力犯罪率通常是其他大城市的兩倍。溫尼伯更是全國暴力犯罪最嚴重的城市：其凶殺率幾乎是其他所有城市的兩倍以上，搶劫率更是其他19個都市區中16個的四倍以上。

然而，草原地區的這種特殊情況不應掩蓋我們的核心發現：暴力犯罪危機已蔓延至全國。像基奇納-劍橋-滑鐵盧、哈利法克斯和維多利亞這樣的小型都市區，其暴力犯罪增長速度如今已與規模更大的城市持平甚至超過後者。蒙克頓和聖約翰斯目前在我們報告涵蓋的20個都市區中暴力犯罪率最高，甚至高於溫尼伯。

The numbers don't lie: Violent crime has surged across Canada

13 NOVEMBER 2025

https://thehub.ca/2025/11/13/the-numbers-dont-lie-violent-crime-has-surged-nationwide/

 

From Victoria to St. John’s, Canadians are worried about violent crime. The data back up their concerns: Violent crime in our cities is rising.

This week, the Macdonald-Laurier Institute published the second volume of its Urban Violent Crime Report, written by myself and Richard Audas. We use Statistics Canada data from 20 of Canada’s largest census metropolitan areas (CMAs)—representing nearly two-thirds of Canada’s population—to explore changes in homicide, sexual assault, aggravated assault, and robbery, as well as the overall violent crime rate and violent crime severity index over the last decade.

The results are bleak. Using three-year rolling averages, we show that urban violent crime has increased in nearly every major urban area, and that the problem is no longer confined to the country’s largest centres. Over the last decade, the violent crime rate and the sexual assault rate have increased in all 20 CMAs we studied. For violent crime severity—an index that tracks more serious violent crimes—19 of 20 CMAs have experienced increases over the last five years and over the last decade.

In terms of region, violent crime is by far the worst in four Prairie cities. Regina, Saskatoon, Edmonton, and Winnipeg often record violent crime rates that are double those of other large cities. Winnipeg stands out as the most violent city in the country: its homicide rate is more than twice that of nearly every other city, while its robbery rate is more than four times higher than 16 of the other 19 CMAs.

Yet this Prairie exceptionalism should not detract from our central finding: The violent crime crisis has become national in scope. Smaller CMAs such as Kitchener-Cambridge-Waterloo, Halifax, and Victoria are now matching or even surpassing larger centres in violent-crime growth. Moncton and St. John’s currently have the highest violent crime rate of the 20 CMAs in our report, even higher than Winnipeg.