湯因比預言：中華文化將統一世界

湯因比預言：中華文化將統一世界

11月26日

http://www.uou-edu.com/dfwh8.html

阿諾德·湯因比是英國著名曆史學家。他的20卷巨著《曆史研究》與斯賓格勒的《西方的沒落》和吉本的《羅馬的興衰》並列，被譽為“洞察20世紀西方文明衰落的巨型曆史博物館”。但與斯賓格勒不同，他試圖以基督的救贖精神拯救西方，古羅馬的思想引領他走向全球一體化，使他確信人類的統一性，因此被譽為“全球統一的先知”。以下摘錄自湯因比晚年與日本社會活動家池田大作合著的對話錄《展望21世紀》，看看他是如何預言世界統一的：

中華民族的美德在屈辱的世紀中依然發揮著作用。這種美德也體現在移居世界各地的海外華人身上。

東亞擁有豐富的曆史遺產，使其成為世界地理和文化的統一軸心。在我看來，這些遺產體現在以下幾個方麵：

第一，中華民族的經驗。在過去的二十一個世紀裏，中國維持著遍布全球的帝國，是真正區域性國家的典範。

第二，在漫長的中華曆史進程中，中華民族逐漸培養了博大精深的天下精神。

第三，儒家世界觀中的人文主義。

第四，儒家和佛教的理性主義。

第五，東亞人對宇宙的奧秘十分敏感，認為試圖征服宇宙終將失敗。我認為這是道家思想中最寶貴的內涵。

第六，這種直覺是佛教、道家和中國哲學（除如今已消亡的法家外）的共同之處。人類的目標並非淩駕於自身之上征服自然，而是要堅信人必須與自然和諧共處。

第七，過去，無論在軍事還是非軍事領域，科學都曾應用於現代科技競爭，西方國家一度占據主導地位，但東亞國家最終戰勝了他們。日本人已經證明了這一點。

第八，日本人和越南人敢於挑戰西方，這種勇氣值得我們銘記。我希望這種勇氣在未來能夠延續，並在人類曆史的下一個階段，為解決人類問題做出建設性貢獻。

在現代社會，我親身感受到中國人能夠勝任任何職業，並且能夠維持高水平的家庭生活。無論國家處於衰落還是動蕩時期，中國人都能堅守這一美德。

未來統一世界的，或許不是西歐國家，也不是西歐的某些國家，而是中國。正因為中國對未來的政治使命具有如此重要的政治意義，所以它在當今世界享有極高的威望。過去兩千二百年間，中國的統一政府不僅在極短的時間內實現了數億人民的政治統一，而且統一的中國在所有受保護國家中都享??有政治主權的認可。文化的影響力甚至滲透到遙遠的地區，即所謂的“中華王國”。事實上，自公元前221年左右以來，中國一直是半個世界的中心。

英國擊敗拿破侖後，立即發動鴉片戰爭，這喚醒了中國。

未來，中國將在人類社會中扮演怎樣的角色？

由於西方民族勢力的擴張和短暫統治，地球人類社會擺脫了這種統治力量，未來也將如此。在人類社會的最終格局中，中國僅僅是三國之一，還是五大強國之一，亦或是成為世界“王國”，這才是中國未來的使命？

這關係到全人類，尤其是與中國關係密切的蘇聯、日本和美國。

可以從東亞大陸沿岸和關島附近的海島撤退，然後從夏威夷撤退。曾經需要撤退到美國西海岸，美國和中國就可以與整個太平洋隔絕。但如今，地理距離已不再重要。火箭的發明使浩瀚的太平洋變得像一條小溪。所有國家，包括中國，都在彼此的直線距離之內。這就是當今的現實。

所以，我認為，當全人類發展成一個統一的社會時，那或許就是世界統一之日。如今，在原子時代，這種武力征服——這種統一地球廣袤區域的傳統方式——已經難以實現。與此同時，我所預見的和平統一必須以地理和文化軸線為中心，並不斷完善和擴展。我預感，這條軸線不在美國、歐洲和蘇聯，而是在東亞。

東亞地區由中國、日本、韓國、越南組成，人口眾多。這些國家的活力、勤勞、勇氣和智慧絲毫不遜色於世界其他任何國家。從地理角度來看，從中華文化和佛教的共同傳承來看，或者從現代西方文明不得不麵對的共同問題來看，它們之間有著緊密的聯係。就中國而言，數千年來，中國成功地將數億人民在政治和文化上團結起來，其成就遠超世界其他任何國家。他們展現了政治和文化統一的能力，並取得了舉世矚目的成就。這種統一是當今世界的絕對需求。中國和東亞各國人民之所以能夠合作，在人類統一這一不可或缺的進程中發揮引領作用，原因就在於此。

如果我的推測沒有錯，那麽可以預見，世界統一將在和平中實現。這是原子時代唯一可行的道路。然而，盡管是中華民族，卻從未真正和平過。戰國時期，如同古希臘和近代歐洲一樣，也曾經曆過分裂和鬥爭。然而，漢朝之後，戰國時期的好戰精神被摒棄。漢朝的開國皇帝劉邦早在公元前202年就完成了中國的統一。在此之前，秦始皇的政治統一是通過武力實現的。因此，在他去世後，出現了民族主義複興的契機。在漢朝，劉邦在地方分權和世界主義之間保持了中華民族情感的平衡。與秦始皇的魅力和專製統治不同，他巧妙地運用自己的生命來實現這一目標。

未來想要統一世界的人必須具備世界主義精神，正如中國曆史上第二位統治者所取得的巨大成就一樣。同時，他們也必須具備實現最終目標的能力。世界統一是避免人類集體自殺的途徑。在這方麵，目前準備最充分的是兩千年來發展出獨特思維方式的中國人。不是在半個世界，而是在整個人類能夠生活和社交的地球上，統一的未來勢在必行，而漢代劉邦正是這一理念的典範。

編者按：

外國曆史學家的言論似乎值得中國人深思。外國人看到了我們文化和曆史的卓越地位，甚至在他們眼中，我們的文化或許能夠統一世界。

Toynbee predicts: Chinese culture will unify the world

November 26, 2016
http://www.uou-edu.com/dfwh8.html
Arnold Toynbe is a famous English historian. His 20 volume masterpiece "historical research" and Spengler's "decline of the west" and the "Rome gibbon early rise and fall" in parallel, is called "the giant History Museum, is the most famous contemporary American philosophy professor Li Weiyu of human civilization through the heritage of the" most and most sustained meditation". He and Spengler have the same thing: they both have insight into the decline of Western civilization in twentieth Century. But he did not like Spengler, depicts a terrible hopeless prospect for the west, he tries to salvation spirit of Christ to save the west. His research was inherited from British empiricism, and his core ideas were influenced by the French philosopher Bergson, whose inspiration came from Gerd of germany. His early studies of ancient Rome led to the idea of a global integration that convinced him of the unity of human beings and was thus called a "global unified prophet"". Below, I will extract from his old age and Japanese social activist Ikeda co authored the dialogue: "outlook twenty-first Century", take a look at how he predicted the unity of the world:
The virtue of the Chinese nation has continued to function in the humiliating century. This kind of virtue is also embodied in the activities of overseas Chinese people who have migrated to different parts of the world.
East Asia has many historical legacies, which can make it the unifying geographical and cultural axis of the world. In my opinion, these heritages have the following aspects:
First, the experience of the Chinese nation. In the past twenty-one centuries, China has maintained an empire all over the world and has been an example of a truly regional country.
Second, in the long course of Chinese history, the Chinese nation gradually cultivated the spirit of the world.
Third, humanism in the Confucian worldview.
Fourth, the rationalism of Confucianism and buddhism.
Fifth, East Asians are sensitive to the mystery of the universe, and believe that the universe will be defeated if it wants to dominate it. I think this is the most precious sense of taoism.
Sixth, this intuition is Buddhism, Taoism and Chinese all genres of Philosophy (except today extinct Legalists) have in common. The aim of man is not to dominate the nature beyond his own conceit, but to have a belief that he must live in harmony with nature.
Seventh, in the past, in military and non military two areas, science was applied to the modern competition of technology, while the Westerners were dominant, but East Asian countries could defeat them. The Japanese have proved it.
Eighth, the courage of the Japanese and Vietnamese to dare to challenge the west. This courage will continue in the future, but I hope that in the next stage of human history, it can contribute to the constructive cause of solving human problems.
In the modern world, I have personally learned that the Chinese are competent for any profession and that they can maintain a high standard of family life. The Chinese are able to hold on to this virtue no matter when the country is declining or when it is actually in turmoil.
It is probably not the Western European countries, nor the countries of Western Europe, but China that will unify the world in the future. And because China has such a political signal for future political missions, China has an amazing prestige in the world today. China's unified government in the past two thousand and two hundred years, in addition to a very short period of time, has been politically hundreds of millions of people unified as a whole. Moreover, a unified China is recognized in the political sovereignty of all protected states. The influence of culture even permeates far away regions, what is called the kingdom of china". As a matter of fact, China has been the center of half the world since almost 221 bc. In the last five hundred years, the world has been united in every field of politics and in the west. I am afraid it is China's destiny to bring more than half the world and bring political unity and peace to the world as a whole.
As for the past China, Napoleon said, "don't wake the sleeping giant."". The English defeated Napoleon and immediately launched the Opium War, which awakened china.
What role will China play in human society in the future?
Because of the expansion and temporary rule of the Western Ethnic forces, the earth human society has been rid of this ruling power and will continue in the future. In the last row into the earth in the human society, China just stay in the three countries, one of the five powers or more powerful position? Or become the world's "the kingdom", is the future of the China mission?
This is a matter of concern for all mankind, especially the Soviet Union and Japan, which are closer to china. The United States can withdraw from the East Asian mainland coast and the sea islands to Guam, and then withdraw from Hawaii. Once needed to be withdrawn to the west coast of the United States, the United States and China can be separated from the entire Pacific ocean. But today, simply geographical distance is no longer important. The invention of rockets led to the vast expanse of the Pacific Ocean as narrow as a stream. All countries, including China, are within each other's straight-line range. That's the reality of today.
So, in my opinion, when all mankind grows into a single society, it may be the day of world unification. Today in the atomic age, this unified conquest by force - the traditional way of unifying the vast part of the earth - has been hard to do. At the same time, the peaceful reunification that I foresee must be centered on the geographical and cultural axis and continuously crystallized and expanded. I have a hunch that this axis is not in the United States, Europe and the Soviet Union, but in East asia.
East Asia, consisting of China, Japan, Korea, Vietnam, has a large population. The vitality, the diligence, the courage, the wisdom of these nations are no less than those of any other nation in the world. From the geographical point of view, this is from the common heritage of Chinese culture and Buddhist point of view, or from the outside of modern western civilization had to compromise this common problem, they are connected in a bond. And as far as the Chinese are concerned, thousands of years have succeeded in uniting hundreds of millions of people from the political and cultural world, than any other nation in the world. They demonstrate the ability to be politically and culturally unified and have unparalleled success. Such unification is the absolute requirement of the world today. The reason why the Chinese and the East Asian peoples are cooperative, in the process of human unification which is considered as indispensable and inevitable, may play a leading role, and the reason lies here.
If I speculate that there is no mistake, it is estimated that the unification of the world will be realized in peace. This is the only feasible road in the atomic age. However, although it is the Chinese nation, it is not peaceful at any time. In the Warring States period, as in ancient Greece and modern Europe, there were also divisions and struggles. However, after the Han Dynasty, the belligerent spirit of the Warring States period was abandoned. The founding emperor of the Han Dynasty, Liu Bang, completed the unification of China as far back as 202 bc. Before that, the political unity of the first emperor was accomplished by force. Therefore, after his death, there appeared a place of nationalism restoration. In the Han Dynasty, Liu Bang kept the balance of Chinese national feelings from the local decentralization to the cosmopolitanism. Contrary to Qin Shihuang's actions of charm and despotism, he skillfully used his life to accomplish the cause.
Those who will unify the world in the future must be cosmopolitan, just as the second rulers of China have achieved greater success. At the same time, the ability to achieve the ultimate goal is required. The unification of the world is the way to avoid human collective suicide. In this respect, what is best prepared now is the Chinese people who have developed a unique way of thinking in the past two thousand years. Not in half the world, but in the whole earth where people can live or socialize. A unified future must be achieved, and the original model of the statesman is Liu Bang of the Han dynasty.
Editor's note:
The speech of foreign historians should seem to be worth pondering by chinese. When we look down on their own Chinese Chinese culture, when we Chinese their own history improperly belittle oneself, foreigners can see our culture and our history of outstanding place, even in the eyes of the culture they may unify the whole world.
However, looking back, we Chinese in their own culture and know how many? Against Confucianism, it seems that even the Confucian classics have not read; oppose Buddhism, understanding just seems to only stay in religious, but failed to see the Buddhist outlook on life analysis; against the traditional culture. It is the traditional culture of the cicadas do not know what, just because the opposition so opposed, say a little truth.
Why don't you in a calm mood, quietly understand our culture? Who oppose, there must be a strong opposition who reason to receive flattery or compliment of the era, that Confucianism is a waste, must study by oneself say a Confucian garbage 123th, to convince others, if only no argument argument, just on a top hat Confucian a top, no one will believe. The same is true against buddhism. Some philosophers have said that Buddhist philosophy is the most beautiful philosophy. However, there are many people who can not tolerate Buddhist philosophy in this philosophical forum. Philosophy should not be exclusive, and good philosophy is always the best.
Here, I want to say: as we Chinese, but as a hobby of philosophy Chinese, must have a sound understanding of its history and culture history, rather than standing on the starting point of criticism, historical and cultural studies is to criticize, this is not good. Mr. Qian Muwei said: "there should be some warmth in studying the history and culture of our nation.". In my view, in the present China, as long as it can be done to the point, it has been very good, warmth seems to be difficult to achieve among many people. Of course, this is not to say that history does not need to be criticized, but not so. The critical criteria, is established on the basis of the point, and to achieve this point, is must be established on the basis of understanding or insight on their own history and culture, and not others, or sense judgment. In short, we must have a good view of history, to be able to accurately review and study of national history and culture, to be able to extract from the history and culture of the system can China involved party summary on philosophy.
Arnold Joseph Toynbe (Arnold Joseph Toynbee, 1889 - 1975) was a famous British historian, he was known as "the greatest historian in modern times". Toynbee has a unique vision of history, and his 12 book, historical studies, tells the rise and decline of all the major nations in the world. It is called "the greatest achievement of modern scholars"". Because his uncle is a historian specializing in the history of economic development, also called Arnold Toynbe (Arnold Toynbee, 1852 - 1883), in order to distinguish between the two, people usually call the two person's full name, to avoid confusion.