風蕭蕭_Frank
以文會友
不要誤以為現在發生的事情主要與關稅有關
https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/dont-make-mistake-thinking-whats-now-happening-mostly-ray-dalio-w8dbe/
雷·達利奧 創始人、首席信息官導師、橋水基金董事會成員
2025年4月7日
目前，人們理所當然地將大量注意力放在已宣布的關稅及其對市場和經濟的巨大影響上，而很少關注導致這些關稅的因素以及未來可能出現的最大混亂。請別誤會，雖然這些關稅聲明是非常重要的事態發展，而且我們都知道是特朗普總統促成了這些事態，但大多數人忽視了促使他當選總統並實施這些關稅的根本原因。他們也大多忽視了驅動幾乎所有事情（包括關稅）的更為重要的力量。
更大、更重要的一點是，我們正目睹主要貨幣、政治和地緣政治秩序的典型崩潰。這種崩潰一生中隻會發生一次，但在曆史上，當類似的不可持續狀況存在時，它們曾多次發生。
更具體地說：
貨幣/經濟秩序正在崩潰，因為現有債務過多，債務增加速度過快，而現有的資本市場和經濟體正是靠著這種不可持續的巨額債務支撐起來的。債務不可持續的原因是，a) 債務借款國負債過多，並且由於依賴債務為其過度行為融資而背負過多債務（例如美國）；b) 貸款國債權國（例如中國），已經持有過多債務，並且依賴向借款國債務國（例如美國）出售其商品來維持其經濟。這些失衡現象麵臨著巨大的壓力，必須以某種方式得到糾正，而糾正將極大地改變貨幣秩序。例如，在一個去全球化的世界裏，同時存在巨大的貿易失衡和巨大的資本失衡顯然是不協調的，因為主要參與者無法相信其他主要參與者不會切斷他們所需的物資供應（這是美國的擔憂），也無法相信其他主要參與者不會償還他們所欠的債務（這是中國的擔憂）。這是因為各方正處於一種以自給自足為重的戰爭狀態。任何研究過曆史的人都知道，在這種情況下，此類風險曾反複導致我們現在看到的同類問題。因此，舊的貨幣/經濟秩序——像中國這樣的國家以低成本生產產品，向美國人銷售，並收購美國債務資產，而美國人從像中國這樣的國家借錢進行這些購買並積累巨額債務——必須改變。這些顯然不可持續的狀況，尤其因為其導致美國製造業衰退，不僅掏空了美國中產階級的就業崗位，還迫使美國從日益被視為敵人的國家進口所需物資。在去全球化時代，這些反映貿易和資本互聯互通的巨額貿易和資本失衡，無論如何都必須縮小。此外，顯而易見的是，美國政府債務水平及其增長速度是不可持續的。（您可以在我的新書《國家如何破產：大周期》中找到我對此的分析。）顯然，貨幣秩序必須進行重大的顛覆性變革，才能減少所有這些失衡和過度行為，而我們正處於這一變革過程的早期階段。這將對資本市場產生巨大的影響，進而帶來巨大的經濟影響，我將另行深入探討。
由於人們在教育水平、機會水平、生產力水平、收入和財富水平以及價值觀方麵存在巨大差距，以及現有政治秩序無法有效修複現狀，國內政治秩序正在崩潰。這些情況體現在右翼民粹主義者和左翼民粹主義者之間不惜一切代價爭奪權力和控製權的鬥爭中。這導致民主製度崩潰，因為民主製度需要妥協和遵守法治，而曆史表明，在我們現在所處的時代，這兩者都會崩潰。曆史還表明，隨著經典民主和經典法治作為專製領導的障礙被消除，強大的專製領導人就會出現。顯然，當前不穩定的政治局勢將受到我在此提到的其他四種力量的影響——例如，股市和經濟問題可能會引發政治和地緣政治問題。
國際地緣政治世界秩序正在崩潰，因為
一國獨大（美國）主導、其他國家遵循的時代已經結束。美國主導的多邊合作世界秩序正在被單邊的強權統治模式所取代。在這一新秩序中，美國仍然是世界第一大國，並且正在轉向單邊的“美國優先”模式。我們現在看到，這種趨勢體現在美國主導的貿易戰、地緣政治戰、科技戰，以及在某些情況下的軍事戰爭中。
自然災害（幹旱、洪水和流行病）的破壞性日益增強，而且， 人工智能等技術的驚人變化將對生活的方方麵麵產生巨大影響，包括貨幣/債務/經濟秩序、政治秩序、國際秩序（通過影響國家間經濟和軍事互動）以及自然災害的代價。
這些力量的變化以及它們如何相互影響才是我們應該關注的。
因此，我敦促大家不要讓像關稅這樣引人注目的劇烈變化分散對這五大力量及其相互關係的注意力，它們才是整體大周期變化的真正驅動力。如果你讓自己被它們分散注意力，你將：a) 無法理解這些力量的條件和動態是如何引發這些引人注目的變化的；b) 無法思考這些引人注目的變化將如何影響這些力量；c) 無法專注於這個整體大周期及其驅動因素的典型運作方式，而這些因素將在很大程度上揭示未來可能發生的事情。
我還敦促大家思考至關重要的相互關係。例如，想想唐納德·特朗普的關稅行動將如何影響：1）貨幣/市場和經濟秩序（它將對其造成破壞）；2）國內政治秩序（它可能會對其造成破壞，因為它可能會削弱特朗普的支持率）；3）國際地緣政治秩序（它將在金融、經濟、政治和地緣政治等諸多方麵對其造成破壞）；4）氣候（它將在一定程度上削弱世界有效應對氣候變化問題的能力）；以及5）技術發展（它將對美國造成一些積極的影響，例如為美國帶來更多技術生產；也會帶來一些有害的影響，例如破壞支持技術發展所需的資本市場，以及其他諸多方麵，在此不一一列舉。）
在這樣做的同時，請記住，現在發生的事情隻是曆史上無數次發生的事情的當代版本。我強烈建議各位研究一下政策製定者在過去類似情況下采取的行動，以便列出他們可能采取的措施——例如暫停向“敵對”國家償還債務，建立資本管製以防止資本自由流出，以及征收特別稅。這些措施中的許多在不久前都是不可想象的，因此我們也應該研究這些政策是如何運作的。貨幣、政治和地緣政治秩序的崩潰，以經濟蕭條、內戰和世界大戰的形式出現，進而催生出新的貨幣和政治秩序來規範國家內部的互動，以及地緣政治秩序來規範國家之間的互動，直至其瓦解。這些都反複發生，是理解這些變化至關重要的因素。
我在我的著作《應對不斷變化的世界秩序的原則》中對此進行了詳細描述，以便各位能夠清楚地看到其中的闡述。總體大周期被描述為六個清晰可辨的階段，這些階段隨著一個秩序向下一個秩序的轉變而展開。本書闡述得非常詳細，很容易將當前情況與通常情況進行比較，從而確定周期處於哪個階段以及接下來可能發生的事情。
當我撰寫這本書和其他書籍時，我希望（現在仍然希望）能夠：1）幫助政策製定者理解這些力量，並與之互動，製定更好的政策，從而獲得更好的結果；2）幫助那些能夠集體而非個人影響政策的個人妥善應對這些力量，從而為自己和他們關心的人爭取更好的結果；3）鼓勵與我持有不同觀點的聰明人與我進行開放、深思熟慮的交流，以便我們都能努力弄清什麽是真理，以及如何應對。
本文表達的觀點僅代表我個人，並不一定代表橋水基金。
Don't Make the Mistake of Thinking That What's Now Happening is Mostly About Tariffs
At this moment, a huge amount of attention is being justifiably paid to the announced tariffs and their very big impacts on markets and economies while very little attention is being paid to the circumstances that caused them and the biggest disruptions that are likely still ahead. Don't get me wrong, while these tariff announcements are very important developments and we all know that President Trump caused them, most people are losing sight of the underlying circumstances that got him elected president and brought these tariffs about. They are also mostly overlooking the vastly more important forces that are driving just about everything, including the tariffs.
The far bigger, far more important thing to keep in mind is that we are seeing a classic breakdown of the major monetary, political, and geopolitical orders. This sort of breakdown occurs only about once in a lifetime, but they have happened many times in history when similar unsustainable conditions were in place.
More specifically:
- The monetary/economic order is breaking down because there is too much existing debt, the rates of adding to it are too fast, and existing capital markets and economies are supported by this unsustainably large debt. The debt is unsustainable because the of the large imbalance between a) debtor-borrowers who owe too much debt and are taking on too much debt because they are hooked on debt to finance their excesses (e.g., the United States) and b) lender-creditors (like China) who already hold too much of the debt and are hooked on selling their goods to the borrower-debtors (like the United States) to sustain their economies. There are big pressures for these imbalances to be corrected one way or another and doing so will change the monetary order in major ways. For example, it is obviously incongruous to have both large trade imbalances and large capital imbalances in a deglobalizing world in which the major players can't trust that the other major players won't cut them off from the items they need (which is an American worry) or pay them the money they are owed (which is a Chinese worry). This is a result of these parties being in a type of war in which self-sufficiency is of paramount importance. Anyone who has studied history knows that such risks under such circumstances have repeatedly led to the same sorts of problems we're seeing now. So, the old monetary/economic order in which countries like China manufacture inexpensively, sell to Americans, and acquire American debt assets, and Americans borrow money from countries like China to make those purchases and build up huge debt liabilities will have to change. These obviously unsustainable circumstances are made even more so by the fact that they have led to American manufacturing deteriorating, which both hollows out middle class jobs in the U.S. and requires America to import needed items from a country that it is increasingly seeing as an enemy. In an era of deglobalization, these big trade and capital imbalances, which reflect trade and capital interconnectedness, will have to shrink one way or another. Also, it should be obvious that the U.S. government debt level and the rate at which the government debt is being added to is unsustainable. (You can find my analysis of this in my new book How Countries Go Broke: The Big Cycle.) Clearly, the monetary order will have to change in big disruptive ways to reduce all these imbalances and excesses, and we are in the early part of the process of it changing. There are huge capital market implications to this that have huge economic implications, which I will delve into at another time.
- The domestic political order is breaking down due to huge gaps in people's education levels, opportunity levels, productivity levels, income and wealth levels, and values—and because of the ineffectiveness of the existing political order to fix things. These conditions are manifest in win-at-all-cost fights between populists of the right and populists of the left over which side will have the power and control to run things. This is leading to democracies breaking down because democracies require compromise and adherence to the rule of law, and history has shown that both break down at times like those we are now in. History also shows that strong autocratic leaders emerge as classic democracy and classic rule of law are removed as barriers to autocratic leadership. Obviously, the current unstable political situation will be affected by the other four forces I’m referring to here—e.g., problems in the stock market and economy will likely create political and geopolitical problems.
- The international geopolitical world order is breaking down because the era of one dominant power (the U.S.) that dictates the order that other countries follow is over. The multilateral, cooperative world order the U.S. led is being replaced by a unilateral, power-rules approach. In this new order, the U.S. is still largest power in the world and is shifting to a unilateral, "America first" approach. We are now seeing that manifest in the U.S. led trade-war, geopolitical war, technology war, and, in some cases, military wars.
- Acts of nature (droughts, floods and pandemics) are increasingly disruptive, and
- Amazing changes in technology such as AI will be highly impactful to all aspects of life, including the money/debt/economic order, the political order, the international order (by affecting interactions between countries economically and militarily), and the costs of acts of nature.
Changes in these forces and how they are affecting each other is what we should be focusing on.
For that reason, I urge you to not to let news-grabbing dramatic changes like the tariffs draw your attention away from these five big forces and their interrelationships, which are the real drivers of Overall Big Cycles changes. If you allow yourself to be distracted by them, you will a) miss how the conditions and the dynamics of these big forces are causing these news-making changes, b) fail to think through how these news-making changes will affect these big forces, and c) fail to keep focused on how this Overall Big Cycle and the parts that drive it typically transpire, which will tell you a lot about what is likely to happen.
I also urge you to think about the interrelationships that are critically important. For example, think about how Donald Trump's actions on tariffs will affect 1) the monetary/market, economy order (it will be disruptive to it), 2) the domestic political order (it will likely be disruptive to it as it will probably undermine his support), 3) the international geopolitical order (it will be disruptive to it in many obvious ways that are financial, economic, political, and geopolitical) 4) climate (it will somewhat undermine the world’s ability to deal with the climate change issue effectively), and 5) technology development (it will be disruptive in some positive ways to the U.S., like bringing more technology production into the U.S., and in some harmful ways, like being disruptive to the capital markets that are needed to support technology development and in too many other ways to innumerate here.)
As you do this, it’s helpful to keep in mind that what is happening now is just a contemporary version of what has happened innumerable times throughout history. I urge you to study the actions that policy makers took in analogous past cases in which they found themselves in similar positions to help you build a list of things that they might do—things like suspending debt service payments to "enemy" countries, establishing capital controls to prevent the free flow of capital out of the country, and imposing special taxes. Many of these things would’ve been unimaginable not long ago, so we should also study how these policies work. The breakdowns in the monetary, political, and geopolitical orders that take the forms of depressions, civil wars, and world wars, that then lead to the new monetary, political orders that govern interactions within countries, and the geopolitical orders that govern interactions between countries until they break down, have all happened repeatedly and are the most important things to understand well. I described them in detail in my book Principles for Dealing with the Changing World Order so you can see it clearly laid out there. The Overall Big Cycle is described in six clearly identifiable stages that unfold as one order becomes the next. It is laid out in such detail that it is easy to compare what is now happening with what typically happens, so it is possible to identify what stage the cycle is in and what is likely to come next.
When I wrote that book and my other books, I hoped, as I still do, that I would be able 1) to help policy makers understand these forces and interact with them to produce better policies so we get better results, 2) to help individuals who can collectively but not individually affect policies to deal with these forces well so they could get better results for themselves and those they care about, and 3) to encourage smart people who have different views than mine to have open, thoughtful exchanges with me so that we can all try to get at what is true and what to do about it.
The views expressed in this article are mine and not necessarily Bridgewater's.
