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美國的新冷戰：亞尼斯·瓦魯法基斯談保護美元霸權的鬥爭
2024 年 11 月 16 日
希臘前財政部長亞尼斯·瓦魯法基斯在一次富有挑釁性的分析中，對他認為的美國與中國之間日益激烈的冷戰的真正根源進行了清晰的闡述。瓦魯法基斯認為，這場新的對抗絕非僅僅是軍事實力或意識形態霸權的較量，而是圍繞著一個經濟戰場：美元霸權。他認為，中國的技術和金融進步，特別是在金融科技和數字支付係統領域，是對美國全球霸權的直接威脅。
瓦魯法基斯認為，美國發動這場經濟戰是為了遏製中國在金融技術方麵的發展。中國的進步，包括其央行數字貨幣和金磚國家支付係統的建立，使貿易夥伴能夠完全繞過美元，以當地貨幣結算國際貿易。他認為，這可能會削弱美元作為世界儲備貨幣的地位——這一地位長期以來賦予了美國非凡的經濟和地緣政治力量。
美元的主導地位植根於其作為法定貨幣的角色，這意味著它的價值不是由黃金等實物商品支撐，而是由美國政府的信任和信用支撐。這一體係在 1970 年代放棄金本位後得到鞏固，使美國能夠自由印鈔、維持巨額貿易逆差並為其全球軍事存在提供資金。然而，正如瓦魯法基斯警告的那樣，這種安排在很大程度上取決於其他國家繼續依賴美元進行貿易和作為儲備資產。如果中國的數字人民幣或金磚國家多邊貨幣體係等替代方案獲得支持，美國經濟秩序的基礎可能會受到嚴重破壞。
瓦魯法基斯的見解凸顯了華盛頓日益增長的擔憂。美國采取了旨在遏製中國崛起的措施，包括對中國科技公司的製裁、限製獲取關鍵半導體技術的渠道，以及采取地緣政治手段來加強排除中國的聯盟。但正如瓦魯法基斯指出的那樣，這些策略可能會被證明對全球向多極貨幣體係的協調轉變無效。全球南方國家及其他地區的國家越來越多地被減少對美元依賴的金融體係的前景所吸引，這使它們能夠繞過美國控製的網絡的脆弱性和限製。
美國能否成功遏製這些發展的霸權努力？瓦魯法基斯仍然持懷疑態度。他認為，美國的這些嚐試是在一個日益互聯互通和多極化的世界中維持不可持續的現狀的絕望嚐試。他認為，脫離美元不僅是對美國霸權的挑戰，而且是新興大國的經濟抱負和數字時代的創新所推動的必然演變。
最後，瓦魯法基斯的分析提出了一個令人警醒的現實：美國通過經濟脅迫和技術壓製來維持其主導地位的戰略可能隻會加速它試圖阻止的變化。隨著各國繼續使其金融和技術生態係統多樣化，世界可能確實會目睹以美元為中心的秩序的衰落——這一轉變可能會重塑未來幾代全球權力格局。
America's New Cold War: Yanis Varoufakis on the Battle to Protect Dollar Hegemony
November 16, 2024
In a provocative analysis, Yanis Varoufakis, Greece’s former finance minister, has cast a stark light on what he believes to be the true underpinnings of America’s burgeoning cold war with China. Far from being a mere contest of military might or ideological supremacy, Varoufakis argues that this new confrontation centers on an economic battlefield: the supremacy of the American dollar. He identifies China’s technological and financial advancements, particularly in the realm of fintech and digital payment systems, as a direct threat to U.S. global hegemony.
Varoufakis contends that the United States is waging this economic war to stifle China’s evolution in financial technology. China’s advancements, including its central bank digital currency and the establishment of the BRICS Pay system, allow trading partners to bypass the dollar altogether, settling international trade in their local currencies. This, he posits, could erode the dollar’s status as the world’s reserve currency—a position that has long granted the U.S. extraordinary economic and geopolitical power.
The dollar’s dominance is rooted in its role as a fiat currency, meaning its value is not backed by a physical commodity like gold but by the trust and credit of the U.S. government. This system, cemented after the abandonment of the gold standard in the 1970s, has enabled the U.S. to print money freely, sustain vast trade deficits, and fund its global military presence. However, as Varoufakis warns, this arrangement depends heavily on other nations continuing to rely on the dollar for trade and as a reserve asset. If alternatives like China’s digital yuan or BRICS’ multilateral currency systems gain traction, the foundation of the U.S. economic order could be severely undermined.
Varoufakis’s insights underline the growing apprehension in Washington. The U.S. has responded with measures aimed at containing China’s rise, including sanctions on Chinese tech firms, restrictions on access to critical semiconductor technologies, and geopolitical maneuvering to bolster alliances that exclude China. But as Varoufakis points out, such tactics may prove ineffective against a concerted global shift toward a multipolar currency system. Countries in the Global South and beyond are increasingly drawn to the prospect of financial systems that reduce dependence on the dollar, enabling them to bypass the vulnerabilities and constraints of U.S.-controlled networks.
Will the U.S. succeed in its hegemonic efforts to quash these developments? Varoufakis remains skeptical. He views America’s attempts as a desperate bid to preserve an unsustainable status quo in an increasingly interconnected and multipolar world. The shift away from the dollar, he suggests, is not just a challenge to U.S. hegemony but an inevitable evolution driven by the economic aspirations of emerging powers and the innovations of the digital age.
In the end, Varoufakis’s analysis presents a sobering reality: America’s strategy to maintain its dominance through economic coercion and technological suppression may only accelerate the very changes it seeks to prevent. As nations continue to diversify their financial and technological ecosystems, the world may indeed witness the decline of the dollar-centric order—a transformation that could reshape global power dynamics for generations to come.
