David Goldman 中國的五大迷思以及為何會害死我們

David Goldman 關於中國的五大迷思以及它們為何會害死我們 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=thtlyQb8Auo&t=27s

YouTube 2022年9月20日

大衛·戈德曼於 2022 年 9 月 11 日在邁阿密全國保守主義會議上的演講。

數字時代是美國冷戰勝利的副產品記得 1973 年，每個人都認為我們輸了蘇聯地對空導彈摧毀了以色列空軍駕駛的一百架美國飛機蘇聯反坦克武器是世界上最好的，向以色列坦克部隊懇求油價翻了兩番，傷害了美國及其盟友，讓俄羅斯受益聰明的錢都以為美國輸了閃進九年後，美國和以色列以色列航空電子設備在巴卡爾穀火雞射擊中摧毀了一百架俄羅斯飛機在這兩個裏程碑之間美國發明了數字時代的每一個組成部分，無一例外，無一例外，它們都是從五角大樓或美國宇航局的資助開始的，這就是加利福尼亞的真實一麵當時聯邦發展預算占 GDP 的 1%，這是研發的 D 方麵，相當於目前每年約 2500 億美元，呃，正如你從圖表中看到的那樣，相對於經濟而言，我們下降到了三分之一 是的，我們在 1983 年擁有的是高科技魔法，現在我們有了魔法師的學徒，50 年後，我們麵臨的技術挑戰比 1973 年更大，看起來俄羅斯人會贏嗎？中國在其海岸擁有大約 2000 枚地對艦導彈，400 個發射器，它們比 1973 年的俄羅斯薩姆導彈更能改變遊戲規則，就像魚雷機和俯衝轟炸機的組合，在第二次世界大戰初期摧毀了戰艦作為一種有效的作戰平台，中國在製造高超音速武器方麵領先於我們，這是一個如此激進的轉變，我知道 Rob Spalding 會對此發表更多看法，增量戰略，重新調整我們現有的軍隊，在這裏或那裏再增加一點，我們就會喪命，這是我與老朋友布裏奇·科爾比的強烈分歧，我們可以稍後再談論這個問題，幾個月前，戰略與國際研究中心舉行了一場關於美國和中國之間可能發生的戰爭的演習，核心情景是血腥的僵局，我們損失了 200 架飛機，對不起，700 架飛機和兩艘航空母艦，我認為 csis 太樂觀了，隻要你認為中國地對艦導彈擊中美國艦船的概率，然後把過時和無效的宙斯盾係統攔截它的概率乘以兩千，我保證，無論你得出什麽數字，你都不會喜歡，記住烏克蘭人，烏克蘭人用卡車後麵的魚叉導彈擊沉了黑海的俄羅斯旗艦清真寺 VA，中國人在這方麵比烏克蘭人好得多如果我們隻是采用一個豪豬武器在台灣建立，試圖放置大量武器，這些武器將進入可能的中國攻擊，我們得到了我相信呃將軍，April 工作人員讀到的被稱為夢遊者情景，我們一方動員，另一方必須動員，這就是第一次世界大戰的結果，如果我們試圖簡單地提高中國入侵台灣的成本，我們就會邀請中國人盡早入侵，所以在我看來，漸進式戰略根本行不通，台灣一代人假裝武裝自己，中國人假裝受到威懾，台灣的年輕人不想被北京黨魁統治，他們為什麽要這樣做，但他們不想服超過四個月的兵役，台灣目前無法為他們為美國購買的 f-16 找到飛行員，我把它放在哪裏了，美國保衛台灣的軍事理論，而年輕人在玩電子遊戲，同時有兩百萬台灣人在大陸工作，台灣人在中國大陸投資了 2000 億美元，兩國關係非常接近，雙方都在從對方那裏得到他們想要的東西，所以我保證告訴你五個可能讓我們喪命的神話，讓我從這個開始，第一個神話是中國通過向美國出口而致富，也許在2008年，中國對美國的出口占其GDP的9%，現在占GDP的2%，中國不再對我們感興趣了，美國接受吧，自從特朗普關稅於2019年8月生效以來，中國對美國的出口增長了50%，這是因為無論我們對中國對美國的出口收取多少成本，我們都沒有足夠的工業能力來替代它們，所以我們隻需要購買中國產品並為它們支付更多費用，呃，我會說到這個，順便說一下，中國有1萬億美元的貿易順差，這意味著它出口了1萬億美元的資本，我們有 1.4 萬億美元的貿易逆差，這意味著我們必須進口 1.4 萬億美元的資本，在我看來，通過法律阻止美國人在中國投資是微不足道和毫無意義的，中國是唯一一個在海外進行淨投資的國家，這很不方便，但不會傷害他們。第二個神話是，中國依賴於竊取美國技術，過去確實如此，但我們已經遠遠超越了這一點，試圖不竊取我們的技術，製造一種可以環繞地球並擊中目標的高超音速導彈，因為我們不知道如何做到這一點，中國在幾個高科技領域處於領先地位，特別是寬帶通信，根據美國新聞排名，中國畢業的工程師數量也是我們的七倍，中國大學的工程專業在世界排名中名列前茅，有 21 個工程專業，中國不得不 派人去美國接受教育，大約 10 多年前，按照一些標準，中國的科學產出的質量和數量 達到或超過了我們，事實上，我們在永遠的戰爭中浪費了六萬億美元，工業的枯竭是我們自己造成的，現在是時候麵對自己的失敗，而不是尋找別人來責怪神話三：中國麵臨人口崩潰，整個西方都麵臨人口崩潰，但有區別，世界上出生率最低的兩個國家是韓國和台灣，所以在本世紀，按照目前的出生率，基本上是每個女性生一個孩子，你將失去韓國70%的人口和台灣60%的人口，所以大約在半個世紀的時間裏，韓國統一了，因為他們唯一不能進口的就是韓國人，而台灣的問題變成了進口中國人的問題，所以作為一個戰略實體，台灣是自我毀滅的，如果我們把問題推到後麵去，中國人非常清楚台灣會落入他們的手中，因為沒有足夠的時間，而他過去常常擔心，這就是為什麽中國人並不急於入侵，除非我們強行解決這個問題，這就引出了神話四：中國想入侵台灣，因為它是由一個擴張主義的馬克思列寧主義政黨領導的，這個政黨憎恨和害怕民主中國是馬克思主義者，就像黑手黨是天主教徒一樣，他們非常認真地對待民主，你知道，他們是各種馬克思主義流派，溫和主義，但有時很難找到實際的重要性，中國的領土完整是中國政府的聯絡點，也是戰爭的原因，因為中國不是一個民族國家，而是一個多民族、多語言的帝國，大約三分之一的人能流利地說普通話，大多數人說自己的方言，在中國悲慘的曆史中，無數次王朝覆滅，因為一個分離省份與外國侵略者結盟，摧毀了首都的力量，這印刻在中國曆史上，印刻在中國的治國方略上，當中國人認為美國在玩弄台灣主權的想法時，他們認為外國侵略者是屈辱的中心，在中國分裂的過程中，他們會發動戰爭來阻止這種事情，我們有能力維持現狀，也就是一個中國政策大家都同意台灣和中國是同一個國家，雙方都認為應該互相統治，但這種情況仍有待解決，我們可以把這個問題推遲到將來，如果我們試圖強行解決這個問題，我們將陷入戰爭，我們可能會輸掉戰爭，因為我們沒有能力再次做到這一點，漸進主義是我們麵臨的最大風險，因為我們正在應對一場技術革命，所以神話五是，我們可以通過將軍事力量轉移到亞洲和調整常規能力來遏製中國，1973 年美國無法擊敗蘇聯，73 年美國輸了，1982 年的美國是一個不同的國家，我們將其改造以擊敗中國，我們必須成為一個不同的國家，除非我們以萬億來思考，否則我們就是在浪費時間，所以我們首先要有一個鈴鐺五隻貓，我們必須將研發資金恢複到裏根的水平，我們談論的是未來五六年每年額外支出一萬億美元，我們需要徹底修改稅收和監管政策，以恢複對關鍵任務行業的製造業選擇性補貼，轉變將教育重點轉向工程和硬科學，最重要的是將國防重點從傳統係統轉向天基導彈防禦、人工智能、定向能、網絡戰等。我知道我的朋友羅伯·斯伯丁會就此進行更多討論，我無法具體說明是什麽讓我們回到了 1973 年的技術領先地位，沒有人知道 DARPA 的一個項目導致了 CMOS 芯片製造，並將俯視雷達安裝在 f-15 上，但我們釋放了美國人的創造力和企業家精神，重新發明了民用和美國及軍事技術科技並主宰世界創新是我們最大的優勢，我們必須相信它謝謝
非常感謝

David Goldman | Five Myths About China and Why They Could Get Us Killed | NatCon 3 Miami

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=thtlyQb8Auo&t=27s
YouTube 2022年9月20日

David Goldman's address at the Miami National Conservatism Conference on September 11, 2022.

the digital age was a byproduct of America's Cold War victory remember in 1973 everybody thought we'd lost Soviet surface-to-air missiles destroyed a hundred American planes flown by the Israeli Air Force Soviet anti-tank weapons best in the world to plea to the Israeli tank force the oil price quadrupled hurt the United States and its allies benefited Russia smart money all thought America had lost Flash Forward nine years later
American and Israel Israeli avionics destroyed a hundred Russian planes at the bakar valley turkey shoot in between those two Milestones America invented every single component of the digital age with no exceptions and with no exceptions they all began with funding from the Pentagon or from NASA that's where California came from the
real side of it the federal development budget was then one percent of GDP that's the D
side of r d That's the equivalent of about 250 billion dollars a year in current terms uh as you can see from the chart we're down to about a third of that relative to the economy
yes what we had in nineteen eighty three was high-tech sorcery now we've got sorcerer's apprentices 50 years later we Face an even greater technological challenge than we did in 1973 would it looked like the Russians would win China has roughly 2 000 surface-to-ship
missiles on its Coast with 400 launchers they're a game changer as much more than
the Russian Sam's in 1973 something like the combination of torpedo planes and
dive bombers that destroyed the battleship as an effective War fighting
platform at the beginning of World War II China is ahead of us in building
Hypersonic weapons this is a shift so radical I know Rob Spalding will have to say more about it that an incremental strategy of rejiggering our existing forces building
a little bit more here and there will get us killed that's my strong disagreement with my old friend Bridge Colby we can talk about that later very well publicized where exercises
held by the center for strategic and International Studies a few months ago on a possible war between the United States and China and the core scenario was a bloody stalemate in which we lose 200 sorry 700 planes and two aircraft carriers I think the csis was much too optimistic just take the probability that you think pick a number any number that a Chinese surface to ship missile has of hitting an American vessel and then the probability of the Antiquated and ineffective Aegis system interdicting it and multiply by two thousand and I guarantee whatever number you come up with you're not going to like remember that the ukrainians the ukrainians used a harpoon missile off the back of a truck to sink the Russian Flagship mosque VA in the Black Sea the Chinese
are a lot better at this than the ukrainians
a point if we simply adopt a porcupine
weapons build up in Taiwan try to place
a lot of weapons which would enter that
a possible Chinese attack we get what I
believe uh what general what April staff
read is called the Sleepwalker scenario
we one side mobilizes the other side has
to mobilize that's the World War One result if we try to Simply raise the cost of a
Chinese invasion of Taiwan we invite the Chinese to invade sooner rather than later
so the incremental strategy in my view is not going to work at all Taiwan for a generation has pretended to arm itself and the Chinese have pretended to be deterred taiwan's young people don't want to be ruled by Beijing party bosses why should they but they don't want to do more than four-month military service Taiwan cannot presently find Pilots for the f-16s they're buying for the United States has ever look where I put it the Taiwan military doctrines for America to defend it while there are young people
play video games meanwhile you have two million Taiwanese working on the mainland and the Taiwanese had invested 200 billion dollars in the Chinese Mainland the relations are extremely close and both are getting out of the other what they want so I promise to tell you about five myths that could get us killed let me start with this the first myth
is that China is getting rich by exporting to the United States maybe
in 2008 when Chinese exports the U.S were nine percent of their GDP now they're two
percent of GDP China's just not into us anymore America get over it since the Trump tariffs came into effect in August 2019 Chinese exports to the US have risen by 50 percent that's because no matter what cost we place on Chinese exports to the U.S we don't have the industrial capacity to replace them so we simply have to buy
Chinese products and pay more for them that's uh I'll get to that China by the way has a trillion dollar Trade Surplus which means it exports a trillion dollars of capital we have a 1.4 trillion dollar trade deficit which means we have to import 1.4 trillion
dollars of capital it seems to me trivial and pointless to pass laws to stop Americans from investing in China China is the one investing net overseas it's an inconvenience but it doesn't hurt them myth number two China depends on Stolen American Technology well it did in the past but we've moved well beyond that trying to not steal us know-how to build  a Hypersonic missile that can Circle the globe and hit a Target because we don't know how to do that China leads in several high-tech Fields particularly Broadband Communications it also graduates seven times as many engineers as we do according to the U.S news rankings China has 21 of the best 50 engineering programs at its universities in the world the point at which China had to
send its people to the United States to
get an education that was about over 10
years ago by some measures the quality and
quantity of China's scientific output
measures or surpasses ours the fact is
we poured six trillion dollars down the
drain in Forever Wars and deplete at our
Industries we did this to ourselves and
it's time we faced up to our own failures instead of looking for someone
else to blame myth number three China faces demographic collapse well
the whole West faces demographic claps
but there are distinctions the two lowest birth rates in the world
are South Korea and Taiwan so in the course of the century at current
birth rates which is basically one child per female you lose 70 percent of the population of South Korea in the century and sixty percent of the population of Taiwan so
around about halfway there the Koreans unify because the one thing they can't
import is Koreans and the Taiwanese problem becomes one of
importing Chinese so as a strategic entity Taiwan is self-liquidated if we kick the
can down the road the Chinese know perfectly well that
Taiwan falls into their lap because there won't be enough time when he used
to worry about which is why the Chinese are in no particular hurry to invade
unless we force the issue and that gets to myth number four which is that China
wants to invade Taiwan because it's led by an expansionist Marxist leninist party that hates and fears democracy China is Marxist the same way that the mafia is Catholic they take it very seriously they're you know all kinds of schools of Marxism lenatism but the Practical importance is sometimes hard to find the reason that the territorial Integrity of China is a liaison detta of
the Chinese State and a cause for war is because China is not a nation-state it's
a multi-ethnic multilingual Empire where roughly a third of the people can converse fluently in Mandarin most speak their own dialect and for it innumerable times in China's tragic history dynasties have collapsed because a breakaway Province allied with a foreign Invader to destroy the power of the capital that is imprinted on Chinese history on Chinese statecraft and when the Chinese see the United States in their view playing with the idea of sovereignty of Taiwan they see the center of humiliation foreign Invaders In the breakup of China and they'll go to war to stop that we it is within our power to maintain the status quo which is the one China policy everyone agrees Taiwan and China are the same country both think they should be ruling each other but the situation remains to be resolved in the future we can kick that down the road if we try to force the
issue we'll get into a war and we'll probably lose it because we're not equipped to it again incrementalism is the biggest single risk we have because we're dealing with a technological Revolution so myth number five is that we can deter China by shifting military force to Asia and adjusting conventional capabilities we could not beat the Soviet Union in 1973 America and 73 had lost in the America of 1982 was a different country we transformed it to beat China we have to become a different country and unless we think in terms of trillions we're wasting our time so we've got a bell five cats first we've got to get funding for r d back to the Reagan level we're talking about several hundred billion dollars a year of additional spending a trillion in the next five or six years we need a radical revision of tax and Regulatory policy to restore manufacturing selective subsidies for Mission critical Industries a shift in educational priorities to engineering and hard science and above all shift defense priorities away from Legacy systems towards space-based missile defense artificial intelligence directed energy cyber war and so forth I know my friend Rob Spalding will talk a great deal more about this I can't be specific about exactly what takes us back to technological leadership in 1973 nobody knew that a DARPA project which led to CMOS chip manufacturing would put look down radar in f-15s but we unleashed American creativity and Entrepreneurship reinvented civilian and American and Military technology and be dominated the world Innovation is our great strength and we have to trust in it thank you very much thank you