John Mearsheimer 美國在中國問題上遇到嚴重麻煩

約翰米爾斯海默闡述美國為何在中國問題上遇到嚴重麻煩 【國際360】20240315?@全球大視野Global_Vision?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=x_KAfVFnCnQ&t=235s

圍繞美國大戰略，我的論點是美國正在失去重心。你會問這究竟是什麼意思呢 我認為美國在世界上麵臨的主要威脅，就是中國的崛起，以及中國可能試圖主宰亞洲的可能性。我認為我們格外重視如何來遏製中國，但問題在於美國已經失去重心，陷入了歐洲的烏克蘭戰爭。現在又陷入中東，被哈瑪斯和以色列的戰爭分散注意力，因此美國無法完全重視亞洲，我認為這對美國是個重大錯誤 今晚我想詳細闡述這一核心論點，思考這個問題的最好起點 就是談談全球權力平衡，很容易理解 對大多數觀眾中的年輕人而言
他們長大的那個時期 正值單極時刻 那是從1989年冷戰結束
一直持續到大約2017年 被稱為單極時刻
這意味著當時全球隻有一個 強權國家
那就是美國 這對澳大利亞人來說
是一個非常受歡迎的世界 因為美國為你們提供了安全保障
沒有中國威脅 沒有蘇聯威脅 你們得以在經濟上不斷成長
變得更加繁榮 那就是單極時刻 但很重要的是要理解
如今單極時刻已經過去 我們正處於多極世界
由一個強權 變為三個強權：美國，中國和俄羅斯 我們現在稱俄羅斯為強權國家 因為自從2000年普丁執政以來，他讓俄羅斯從滅亡中復活 你們大都知道在90年代，俄羅斯基本上已經死去 但普丁讓他們復活了 所以俄羅斯是一個強權 中國是一個強權，當然還有我們的山姆大叔是強權 重要的是要明白 美國仍然是這個星球上最強大的國家
但中國是旗鼓相當的競爭對手 它在經濟和軍事上不斷增長
正在迎頭趕上美國 這就是為什麼我之前告訴諸位
中國才是真正威脅美國的 而俄羅斯是這三大強權中最弱的一個
這一點非常重要 這就是當前國際體係的基本架構
我們從單極走向了多極格局 有三個強權 美國是第一 中國是第二
俄羅斯遙遙排在第三 這就是現實 現在讓我轉換一下話題 稍稍談談
美國的大戰略 將其與全球權力平衡聯繫起來
對於美國而言 有三個地區是它願意流血捐軀的
那就是歐洲 東亞和波斯灣
美國關注歐洲和東亞 是因為那裡有其他強權 作為一個強權 美國當然關注其他強權，美國和其他國家都對波斯灣區極為關注 是因為那裡有石油
石油是一種非常特殊的資源 美國不希望任何一個國家
控製波斯灣的所有石油 所以美國有切身利益去維護
波斯灣地區的權力平衡 那麼我們就有這三個地區
東亞 歐洲和波斯灣 從歷史上看 美國最關注的是歐洲
歐洲曾遠比東亞更為重要
原因是世界上最強大的強權 主要位於歐洲
納粹德國曾遠比日本帝國更具威脅 橫跨歐亞的蘇聯
軍事力量主要集中在歐洲 因此我們長期堅持"歐洲優先"
直到2017年這才首次發生改變
東亞現在是對美國最重要的地區 原因很簡單
誰是當前的實力對手 不是德國 也不是俄羅斯 是中國
中國位於哪裡 在東亞地區 因此 東亞是當前對美國最重要的地區
我告訴你們的是 美國應該調整重心 將注意力轉向東亞
不要陷入歐洲泥淖 俄羅斯的影響力並不重要
他們沒有能力主宰歐洲 波斯灣地區也沒有潛在的霸主
沒有任何一個國家能控製所有石油 所以理想狀況下
我們可以自由調整重心 但我們尚未完全做到
我要告訴你們的是 正如我稍後將更詳細地闡述 我們將比現在更深入地捲入
烏克蘭戰爭和中東局勢
在這兩個地方 問題都無法迎刃而解 關於烏克蘭和俄羅斯的局勢
會隨時間而惡化 還有以色列和巴勒斯坦的衝突
以及中東問題 形勢也將進一步惡化 兩個地區前景黯淡
這意味著調整重心將很困難 最後一點 非常重要的是要明白
如果美國擔心應對中國的問題 而體係中還有另一個強權
那就是俄羅斯 你就希望俄羅斯站在你這一邊
換句話說 如果你是美國 麵臨來自中國的威脅 而俄羅斯又在那裡
你就希望俄羅斯與你結盟 因為俄羅斯代表著力量 是一個強權
你希望俄羅斯與你一起對抗中國 但我們卻愚蠢地做了什麼
我們愚蠢地將俄羅斯推向了 中國的懷抱
因此 你們都知道 俄中兩國現在緊密結盟 這並不符合我們的利益
本應是山姆大叔和中國緊密結盟 抱歉 口誤 美國和俄羅斯應該聯手
共同對抗中國 這就是我們所麵臨的基本形勢 這就是為什麼我們已經失去重心，陷入了困境 現在 我想詳細解釋一下 我要更詳盡地闡釋這一論點
第一 我想簡單談談東亞 以及美國對華政策的變化
這很直白 但接下來我要談一些棘手的問題 一是烏克蘭 二是中東
談談烏克蘭戰爭 以及以巴衝突及其升級的可能性
並闡明我們將很難完全轉向亞洲
讓我們從烏克蘭問題開始 先讓我簡單回顧一下這個問題的歷史
這樣你們就能理解事情是怎麼開始的 導致我們陷入現在這種境地
冷戰結束後 美國討論過是否應該將
北約組織向東擴張 我們在90年代初做出了決定 就是克林頓政府當時的決定
我們將北約向東擴張 俄羅斯從一開始就明確表示反對
他們是徹底反對的 記得我說過 90年代他們實力很弱
直到2000年代初他們也非常弱小 那是在普丁讓他們"復活"之前
所以在1999年 我們強行將北約東擴塞到他們麵前
強行納入 波蘭 匈牙利和捷克
那就是1999年的情況 然後在2004年 我們再次將北約擴張強加於他們
那次納入了波羅的海三國 羅馬尼亞 保加利亞
斯洛維尼亞和斯洛伐克 俄羅斯大聲疾呼這是難以接受的
但他們太弱 我們強行將東擴推了過去 那是2004年 先是1999年第一波擴張
然後是2004年第二波 到了2008年4月 我們犯下了重大錯誤
在布加勒斯特北約年度峰會上 2008年4月
要將烏克蘭和喬治亞納入北約
當時普丁說 俄羅斯人非常明確地表態
這是絕對不可能發生的事 普丁明確表示他寧願摧毀烏克蘭
也不會讓它加入北約
美國人以為 他們可以像1999年和2004年那樣
將這個決定強加於普丁 於是我們繼續推進 不僅如此 與北約東擴同步推進的還有歐盟擴張 我們還試圖在烏克蘭煽動"顏色革命"
你們大多數人應該記得"橙色革命" 那是我們試圖在烏克蘭推動的 我們在那裡做什麼，我們試圖將烏克蘭改造成一個 親西方的自由民主國家
這嚇壞了俄羅斯人 簡直無法相信 一個自由民主的烏克蘭 而且加入歐盟
也就是加入北約 特別是在邊境 危機於2014年爆發
2008年布加勒斯特 確切地說是2014年危機爆發
第一 俄羅斯就在那時奪取了克裏米亞 第二 也是在那時
烏克蘭頓巴斯地區內戰爆發。所以2014年出現了大麻煩 這場麻煩一直持續到2021年
2021年底 俄羅斯試圖爭取某種協議
但美國不予同意 於是在2022年2月24日 戰爭爆發
現在這場戰爭就此開始 所以你看 危機開始於2014年
當時失去了克裏米亞 8年後的2022年2月
我們現在每天讀到的這場戰爭 就此爆發
這就是背景 現在你應該思考的是
在這場戰爭中正在發生什麼 這列火車開往何方 這就是你想知道的
現在回顧2022年 記住戰爭是在2月爆發的 從2022年2月
到年底 比如說12月31日 在這段時間裡 烏克蘭表現非常出色
他們表現得非常好 俄羅斯動員緩慢 當時俄軍還不是
一支高效的戰鬥力量 我們在2022年開始認為
我們可以擊敗俄羅斯 把他們趕出頓巴斯 趕出克裏米亞
甚至可能讓他們從強權之列除名 所以我們對俄羅斯採取強硬態度
但俄羅斯在2022年9月底做了什麼呢 他們動員了30萬人
開始學習如何在戰場上作戰 接著在今年2023年的整個過程中
他們又額外增兵42.5萬人
他們有工業基礎 能夠生產大量火炮
大量坦克 大量戰機 大量直升機
烏克蘭人沒有這個能力 他們依賴我們 你知道嗎 在單極時期 我們耗盡了工業實力
我們在西方 包括澳大利亞在內 我們沒有集體能力生產
大量火炮 火炮彈藥 坦克等等 但俄羅斯有
為什麼這很重要呢 你應該要理解 烏克蘭和俄羅斯這場戰爭是場消耗戰
就像阿裏和佛雷澤並排站立 狠命地痛打對方 就是這種形式
就是那樣 就像第一次世界大戰西線戰場 總之就是這樣一種毫無新意的戰爭
你應該自問一個問題 在這樣兩軍對陣的消耗戰中 誰會獲勝
有兩個決定性因素 首先是每個國家的人口數量
因為這決定了你能派多少士兵上前線 人口數量方麵
其次就是每一方的火炮裝備水平
我在西點軍校時 美軍教導我們 炮火才是戰爭的決定因素
在消耗戰中更是如此 那麼問題在於 雙方的人口比例是多少
火炮裝備比例又如何 人口比例我們知道 是俄羅斯佔5比1的優勢
至於火炮裝備比例 大概在5比1到10比1之間
大多數人認為 目前是俄羅斯佔10比1優勢 我們西方國家無法扭轉這種失衡
所以形成這樣的局麵 在人口上 烏克蘭以1比5落後
在火炮裝備上可能是1比7或1比10落後 我們無法改變這兩個比例
在消耗戰中 這簡直是死路一條 更糟的是 在所有這些基礎上
他們在2023年6月發起了一次反攻 天啊 烏克蘭在這些進攻中遭受了巨大傷亡
我們一直鼓勵他們進攻俄羅斯人 在我看來 這簡直是極度愚蠢
烏克蘭人本應守勢反擊 他們遭受如此重大傷亡 而他們已經在人口上處於1比5劣勢
在火炮裝備上也處於劣勢 他們注定會失敗
他們一定會失敗 烏克蘭無法獲勝 沒錯
那在這種情況下 失敗意味著什麼呢 俄羅斯人不會征服整個烏克蘭 那將是巨大的錯誤
烏克蘭佔地幅員遼闊 而且 那裡還有很多人 特別是烏克蘭中西部地區
許多烏克蘭族人仇恨俄羅斯人 占領那塊領土是瘋狂的
俄羅斯人最終會做什麼呢 我相信他們現在 控製了將近23%的烏克蘭領土
我認為他們將試圖再奪取20% 他們已經吞併了4個州和克裏米亞
我相信他們會試圖再吞併4個州 與此同時
他們將不遺餘力 把烏克蘭變成一個 支離破碎的殘餘國家
一個功能失調的殘餘國家 他們會幹涉烏克蘭政治 他們會幹預烏克蘭經濟
他們會盡一切努力 摧毀烏克蘭 讓它長期癱瘓
就像他們在2008年說過的那樣 之後他們也一直如此表態
現在 問題在於 除了這顯然對烏克蘭是毀滅性的打擊
問題是烏克蘭不會完全退出戰鬥
最終達成的不會是和平協議 那是不可能的
而是會形成凍結的衝突 戰鬥會停止 會停火 但衝突將凍結
很像南北韓畫上38度線 如你們所知 朝鮮一邊 韓國一邊
會出現凍結的衝突 而衝突隨時都有可能升級
要理解 美國仍將深度參與
在烏克蘭和東歐的事務 竭盡所能地損害俄羅斯
我們不會輕易認輸 我們不會在烏克蘭戰敗就轉向亞洲
我們會留在烏克蘭 我們會繼續支持烏克蘭
我們會繼續尋找機會打擊俄羅斯人 而俄羅斯人也會尋找機會打擊我們
在東歐會有這種激烈的安全競爭
我們在烏克蘭麵臨的麻煩 目前看不到盡頭
順便一提 這告訴你 在2008年4月 我們試圖讓烏克蘭加入北約
是個多麼大的錯誤 但我對你們說的重點是
這使得轉移重心變得非常困難
這就是烏克蘭問題 如果我上個月來這裡
而不是這個月的現在這個時間點
我的演講原本會就此打住 對吧 但現在我們麵臨另一個巨大問題
我不知道誰預見到了 我當然沒有 以色列人當然也沒預見到
但如果你回到10月6日 中東看起來像是一個和平的地區
相較於東歐正在發生的事 中東看起來是一個非常和平的地區
而傑克蘇利文 如你所知 基本上說 中東很長一段時間
沒有看起來這麼好過 但接著10月7日到來 哈瑪斯攻擊以色列
而且是以致命有效的方式
而以色列當然做出回應
宣布對哈瑪斯開戰 現在你看到以色列和哈瑪斯之間
爆發大規模衝突 有可能升級到真主黨介入的地步
衝突可能蔓延到約旦河西岸 或者甚至伊朗人也可能介入
所以這是一個非常危險的局勢 就像烏克蘭一樣
我們將在這個問題上陷入泥淖 而這個問題不會很快消失 對吧
現在 我為什麼這麼說呢 談到以色列和美國時
你首先要記住的是 這兩個國家形影不離 這毫無疑問
我認為這不是一個有爭議的問題 我認為你從未見過任何兩國之間
比以色列和美國更緊密的關係 所以美國很難以任何有意義的方式
與以色列保持距離 所以這是你要記住的第一點
你要記住的第二點是 這裡問題的根源是以巴衝突
或以色列-巴勒斯坦人衝突 那是問題的根源 你隻需要理解
這場衝突的本質 這是一場長期存在的衝突 如你們所知
但你隻是想理解它的實質 因為這能告訴你很多 關於當前正在發生的事
以及未來可能發生的事 美國一直非常關注於
創造兩國方案 你們大多數人都知道以色列問題的處理
美國一直格外重視 在約旦河西岸 加薩和東耶路撒冷
創建一個巴勒斯坦國 與猶太國以色列比鄰而居
我們失敗了 我們未能推動以色列接受這一點
沒有兩國方案 以色列現在擁有的
以及以色列政府想要的是大以色列
大以色列包括約旦河西岸 加薩和1967年的以色列或綠線以色列
那就是大以色列 你要記住的關鍵點是 大約有730萬巴勒斯坦人
和大約 730萬以色列猶太人居住在大以色列
巴勒斯坦人和以色列猶太人的人數
大致相當 你隻需要想一想 當你想到以色列
把以色列視為猶太國家時 這是完全可以理解的 你要明白 那個猶太國家
裡麵的巴勒斯坦人和猶太人一樣多 順便一提 有一位非常著名的人口專家
他是以色列人 他認為在大以色列境內 巴勒斯坦人略多於猶太人
此外 當你隨著時間推移 觀察人口趨勢時 巴勒斯坦人將比猶太人多
而這是一個猶太國家 所以問題是 你該怎麼辦? 而已經發生的是 以色列人
不想給予巴勒斯坦人平等權利 因為如果給予巴勒斯坦人平等權利
以色列很快就不再是一個猶太國家了 因為巴勒斯坦人比猶太人多
如果現在還不是 將來肯定是 就加薩的巴勒斯坦人而言
基本上他們被隔離了 他們被困在加薩
而大家經常把加薩稱為 世界上最大的露天監獄
如果你讀過任何關於巴勒斯坦人
生活在加薩的狀況描述 那真的很可怕
這毫無疑問 他們生活在可怕的條件下
實際上 在一個監獄裡 你要明白 以色列控製著加薩周圍的邊界
它控製著加薩上空 這些都不是有爭議的問題 而且在那730萬巴勒斯坦人中
大約有210萬在加薩
事實是 以色列人自1948年建國以來
一直對巴勒斯坦人採取強硬態度
處於這樣一種境地 巴勒斯坦人會時不時爆發起義
多數聽眾都聽過第一次巴勒斯坦起義 也聽過第二次巴勒斯坦起義
這些起義是巴勒斯坦人的反抗 巴勒斯坦人想要自己的民族國家
就像猶太人想要自己的民族國家一樣 這是完全可以理解的
猶太復國主義者深度介入到巴勒斯坦 並建立一個猶太民族國家
那是完全可以理解的 但正如我母親在我小時候教我的 鵝喜歡的東西大雁也喜歡
如果猶太人想要自己的民族國家 你會驚訝巴勒斯坦人 也想要自己的民族國家嗎? 不會
美國決策者 尤其是美國總統 當時的吉米卡特完全理解這一點
本應該向以色列施加巨大壓力 讓其接受兩國方案
但我們做不到 我們無法對以色列施加巨大壓力
最終的結果是你有了一個大以色列 在那個大以色列中
有大約700多萬巴勒斯坦人 再深入一步
把以色列稱為種族隔離國家 考慮到他們如何對待巴勒斯坦人
但人權觀察 國際特赦組織和卜采萊姆
卜采萊姆是世界上最重要的人權組織之一 它是一個以色列人權組織
人權觀察 國際特赦組織和卜采萊姆都發布了
重要報告 將以色列列為種族隔離國家
所以這就是你現在麵臨的現實 而問題是
以色列人 永遠不會同意兩國方案
因為以色列的政治重心 隨著時間的推移已經向右轉移
並且可能會進一步向右轉移
如果你看看以色列的人口情況
以色列婦女與西方的生育率相比 生育人數眾多
但極端正統猶太教婦女 平均大約生育7個嬰兒
所以正在發生的是 極端正統派
現在佔人口的13% 到2050年或2060年可能佔人口的30%
極端正統派的人數正在顯著增長 而他們對以色列來說有各種問題
因為首先 他們不服兵役 其次 丈夫不工作 事實上靠福利生活
此外 他們的政治立場偏向極右 極端正統派不會同意兩國方案
此外 在10月7日事件後 當你說讓我們朝兩國方案邁進時
以色列人會怎麼說 想想看10月7日發生的事情 他們會認為你瘋了
所以這一切隻是說明 遺憾的是 我唯一的希望是
巴勒斯坦人 與大以色列境內猶太人之間的衝突
以兩國方案解決 而兩國方案不會實現
那列火車已經離站了 而且正如我說你要了解重要一點
美國與以色列形影不離 因此 隨著這種情況在以色列繼續惡化
我們不可避免地捲入其中 讓我再深入一步 談談以色列-巴勒斯坦衝突
首先 我們對中東的穩定特別關注
在10月7日之前 我們一直在努力 你們都記得 與沙烏地阿拉伯一起
讓沙烏地阿拉伯和以色列 達成某種協議
亞伯拉罕協議 我們在川普執政期間幫助促成的
以色列與巴林 以色列與摩洛哥 以及以色列與阿聯酋之間的協議
這些協議使以色列顯著改善了 與這三個國家之間的關係
拜登政府 正試圖達成另一項亞伯拉罕協議 這將是一項重大協議 涉及到
以色列和沙烏地阿拉伯 現在這一切都沒了 沙烏地阿拉伯堅決反對正在發生的事情
關於以色列對巴勒斯坦人的戰爭
有可能真主黨會介入這場衝突
他們在以色列北部邊境 用火箭彈相互攻擊
有可能伊朗可能會介入 正如我之前所說 有可能衝突會在約旦河西岸爆發
自10月7日以來 大約90名巴勒斯坦人 在約旦河西岸被殺
這場衝突失控的可能性 在中東的背景下 確實非常令人擔憂
順便說一下 你要明白 我們派出了這支艦隊 這個傑拉德福特號航空母艦
航母戰鬥群部署在以色列海岸 它擊落了三枚巡航導彈
美國軍隊擊落了三枚巡航導彈 那是葉門的青年運動向以色列發射的
在非常重要的意義上 我們已經參與了 當然是以很小的方式參與戰鬥
如果這場衝突以大規模失控 我們可能會被捲入其中
此外 正如我告訴你的 不要指望這個問題很快就會消失 還有這場衝突的外交層麵
俄羅斯人和中國人 非常喜歡這種局麵 對吧 而他們說了各種話
關於美國人如何 未能擬出一個外交解決方案 那本來可以給
巴勒斯坦人一個屬於他們自己的國家 而這當然在全球都引發共鳴
我們在阿拉伯世界陷入各種麻煩 這可能導致另一次石油禁運
此外 在全球南方
我們高度重視 去贏得全球南方的支持 特別是幫助去解決烏克蘭問題
我們在全球南方因此陷入了大麻煩 所以就中東的穩定而言
就我們在世界各地的外交地位而言 由於阿以衝突或巴以衝突
我們陷入了嚴重的麻煩 而且 這是一個沒有解決方案的局麵
我看不到 我希望我錯了 我希望我被羞辱了 一年後
湯姆又邀請我回來時 我可以說我錯了 烏克蘭的情況也是如此
但我不認為烏克蘭局勢 或中東局勢會有任何好轉
回到我說的重點 我們有一個旗鼓相當的競爭對手 在我看來 拜登政府對每一個人都會說
美國麵臨的主要威脅是中國 沒有人不同意
中國是我們最大的威脅 但我告訴你我們處於這樣一種境地
我們無法全麵轉向亞洲來應對這一威脅 因為我們現在被困在中東
在此之前是困於烏克蘭 此外
俄羅斯人本應站在我們這一邊 因為我們愚蠢的政策 把他們推到了中國人那一邊
這不妙 我最後要說的是 如你所知 我很確信我們西方
許多澳大利亞人熱愛基於規則的秩序 我們總是談論基於規則的秩序
我們認為遵守規則很重要 而西方和美國在建立符合
我們利益的秩序發揮了關鍵作用 但基於規則的秩序
由於烏克蘭和中東已經破碎不堪
以及美國各種其他形式的行為 這一切都說明我們陷入了嚴重的困境
。

在視頻中搜索
thank you very much Tom for the kind introduction and thank you all for coming out tonight I'm amazed at how
many people are here uh the subject I want to talk about for about 25 minutes
uh and then I'll be more than willing after Peter makes his comments on my
comments to take any questions that folks have uh is all about American
Grand strategy and my argument is that the United States is losing
focus and you say to yourself what exactly does that mean I believe that
the principal threat that the United States faces in the world is the rise of China and the possibility that China
might try to dominate Asia and I think we have a deep-seated interest in containing
China but what's happened is that the United States has lost focus and it's
got diver died into the Ukraine war in Europe and it's now getting diverted
into the Middle East uh with the war between Hamas and Israel and the United
States is therefore unable to Pivot completely to Asia and I think this is a
major mistake for the United States and what I want to do tonight is elaborate
my thinking on that main thesis okay the best starting point for thinking
about this issue is just to talk about the global balance of power it's very
understand very important to understand that most of the young people in the audience came of age during the unipolar
moment the period from 1989 when the Cold War ended up until about
2017 is commonly known as the unipolar moment and what that means is that there
was only one great power on the planet and that one great power was the United
States of America this is a world that Australians almost to a person loved
because the United States provided security for you and there was no China threat there was no Soviet threat and
you were able to grow economically in all sorts of ways
to become more prosperous this was the unipolar moment but it's very important to understand that what's happened is
that the unipolar moment is in the rearview mirror it's gone we are now in
a multi-polar world where we went from one great power to three great
Powers the United States China and Russia and we now consider Russia a
great power because Vladimir Putin since he took over in 2000 has brought the
Russians back from the dead most of you know that in the 1990s Russia had basically died Putin brought
them back from the dead so Russia's a great power China's a great power and of
course Uncle Sam is a great power now it's important to understand that Uncle Sam is still the most powerful State on
the planet but nevertheless China is a peer competitor it is growing
economically it is growing militarily and it is beginning to close in on the United States and that's why I said to
you folks before China is the real threat to the United States Russia is
the weakest of those three great Powers okay it's very important to understand
that's the basic architecture of the system at this point in time right we went from uniparity to multipolarity we
have three great Powers Sam is one China is two and the Russians are a distant
third that's the world let me switch gears now and just talk a little bit little bit about American
Grand strategy and tie it to that Global balance of power for the United States of America
there are three areas that you fight and die for where you expend blood and iron
those three areas of the world are Europe East Asia and the Persian Gulf
you care about Europe and you care about East Asia cuz that's where the great powers are and if you're the United
States of America and you're a great power you care about the other great Powers the gulf is of great interest to
the United States and other countries on the planet simply because it has oil and oil is a very special resource and the
United States does not want any country controlling all of the oil in the
Persian Gulf so the United States has a deep-seated interest in maintaining a balance of power in the Persian
Gulf now we have these three areas of the world East Asia Europe and the gulf
historically the United States has cared the most about Europe Europe has been
historically much more important than East Asia and that's because the most
powerful great powers on the planet have been located mainly in Europe Nazi
Germany was a much greater threat than Imperial Japan the Soviet Union which
spanned Europe and Asia had most of its military might concentrated in Europe so
we have long had a Europe first policy that changed after
2017 for the first time in American history East Asia is the most important
area of the world for us why is that the case one very simple reason who's the peer competitor out there it's not
Germany it's not Russia it's China where is China located it's located in East
Asia therefore East Asia is the most important area of the world and what I'm telling you is that the United States
should pivot right to East Asia and not get bogged down in
Europe the Russians don't matter that much they're not a threat to dominate
Europe and the Persian Gulf does not have a potential hamon sitting in that
region there's no one country that's going to take over all the oil so we're
in an Ideal World free to Pivot but we've not fully pivoted and
what I'm telling you and I'm going to lay this out in more detail is we are
going to get more deeply involved in Ukraine and in the Middle
East than we already are and in both cases the problem is not going to go
away the situation regarding Ukraine and Russia is going to get worse with time
for us and the Israeli Palestinian conflict and the problems in the Middle
East are going to get worse as well Darkness ahead in both regions and what
does that mean it means it's difficult to Pivot one final
Point very important to understand that if the United States is worried about
dealing with China and there's one other great power in the system and that other
great power is Russia you want Russia on your side of the Ledger in other words
if you're the United States and you're looking at a China threat and there's Russia you want Russia with you because
Russia represents power it is a great power you want the Russians with you against the Chinese what have we
foolishly done we have foolishly pushed the Russians into the arms of the
Chinese so the Russians and the Chinese as you surely all know are tightly
Allied this is not in our interest it should be Uncle Sam and the
Chinese I mean excuse me Uncle Sam and the Russians that are tightly Allied
against China that's the basic situation that we face this is why I say we've
lost focus and we're in trouble now what I want to do is I want to unpack it for
you I want to unpack this argument in Greater detail number one I want to briefly talked about East Asia and
what's happened with regard to US policy toward China that's pretty straightforward but then I want to get
into the tricky issues one Ukraine and to the Middle East talk about the Ukraine war and the Israel Palestine
conflict and its potential for escalation and make my point that we're
going to have a tough time fully pivoting to East Asia let's start with
Ukraine uh let me just give you a little bit of background on the history of the
Ukraine problem so you have a feel for sort of how this got started and why
we're in the present situation when the Cold War ended uh the
United States debated whether or not to expand NATO Eastward and we decided in the early 90s
the Bill Clinton administration did that we were going to expand NATO Eastward and the Russians made it
unequivocally clear from the beginning this was unacceptable just were posted
but they were very weak in the 1990s remember what I said before and they were even very weak in the early 2000s
this is before they are brought back from the dead by Putin so in
1999 we shove NATO expansion down their face down their throat when we bring in
Poland Hungary and the Czech Republic that's 1999 okay then in 2004 we sh
another trunch of NATO expansion down their throat this is when we bring in the Baltic
states Romania Bulgaria Slovenia Slovakia the Russians are hollering out
loud that this is unacceptable they don't want it but they're too weak and
we push it down their throat that's 2004 first trunch 99 second trunch 2004 in
April 2008 that's when we make the really big mistake we say at Bucharest
the annual NATO Summit AT Bucharest April 2008 we're bringing Ukraine and
Georgia into the alliance Putin says at the time the
Russians make it unequivocally clear across the board this this is not
happening and Putin makes it clear that he will destroy Ukraine before he allows
it to become a member of the alliance the Americans think that they can just
shove it down Putin's throat just like they did in 1999 just like they did in
2004 so we continue to push and not only are we pushing NATO expansion we're
pushing EU expansion at the same time and we're trying to foster a color
Revolution many of you I'm sure remember the orange Revolution we were trying to Foster in Ukraine what are we doing
there we're trying to turn Ukraine into a liberal democracy that has a pro-west
orientation this Spooks the Russians like you wouldn't believe a liberal
Democratic Ukraine that's in the EU that's in NATO especially in NATO on
their border the crisis breaks out in
2014 2008 Bucharest 2014 is when the crisis breaks out that's when the
Russians take Crimea number one and two that's when the Civil War breaks out
inside Ukraine in the donbass so there's Big Trouble in
2014 and that trouble continues through
2021 and at the end of 2021 the Russians are scrambling to get some sort of
agreement the Americans won't agree and on February 24th
2022 a war breaks out the present War breaks out so you see the crisis broke
out in 2014 and that's when Crimea was lost and then eight years later February
2022 the war that we now read about every day broke
out that's the background what you want to now think
about is what's happening in that war where is this train headed that's what
you want to know now in 2022 remember the war breaks
out in February 2022 if you go from February 2022 to the end of the year let's say December 31st 2022 over that
time period the ukrainians do very well they do very well uh the Russians are
slow to mobilize and the Russians are not a highly efficient Fighting Force at that point in time and and we're
beginning to think in 2022 we're going to beat the Russians push them out of
the donbass push them out of Crimea and really maybe even knocked them out of
the ranks of the great Powers so we're playing hard ball with the Russians but
what the Russians do in the end at the end of September 2022 is they mobilize
300,000 men and they begin to learn how to fight on the battlefield and then
over the course of 2023 the year that we're now in they are raising an additional
425,000 men and they have an industrial base
that allows them to produce huge amounts of artillery huge numbers of Tanks huge
numbers of aircraft huge numbers of helicopters right the ukrainians don't
have that capability they depend on us and you know what we ran down air
industrial base during the unipolar moment we do not we in the west this includes Australia we do not
collectively have the capability to produce lots of artillery tubes artillery shells tanks and so forth and
so on the Russians do now why does this matter what you want to understand about
this war between Ukraine and Russia is it's a war of attrition it's Muhammad Ali right and Joe Frasier standing
toe-to-toe pounding The Living Daylights out of each other that's what it is think World War I on the Western Front
okay that's the kind of War this is nothing fancy about this one question
you want to ask yourself is who wins in a war of attrition where two armies are
head-to-head two factors matter the population size of each country because
that tells you how many soldiers you can send to the front population size and
how much artillery each side has
uh when I went to West Point and I was in the American Military we were taught that artillery is the king of battle
right and a war of attrition that is certainly true so the question is what is the population ratio look like
between the two sides what's the artillery ratio look like you want to know what the population ratio is it's 5
to1 in the Russians favor you want to know what the artillery ratio looks like it's somewhere between 5 to1 in 10:1 and
most people think it's 10:1 at this point in time in the Russians favor and we cannot we in the west cannot Rectify
that imbalance so you have the situation where the ukrainians are outnumbered
population wise 5 to1 they're outnumbered probably 7 to1 10 to1 in
terms of artillery can't improve either one of those situations and in a war of attrition that's the kiss of death and
furthermore on top of all that as you know they launch to counter offensive on 4 June of this year my God the
ukrainians have suffered enormous casualties with these offensives we've
encouraged them to attack the Russians it was foolish in the extreme
in my opinion the ukrainians should have remained on the defensive they have suffered such casualties and they
already were down 5 to1 population wise and down in terms of artillery they're going to lose they're
going to lose there's no way the ukrainians can win right
uh what does losing mean in this case the Russians are not going to conquer the whole country it would be a massive
mistake it's a huge piece of real estate Ukraine and furthermore there are lots of people especially in the central part
and the western part of Ukraine who are ethnic ukrainians who hate the Russians occupying that area would be insane what
the Russians are going to end up doing is they now control close to
23% of Ukraine I believe they'll try to take another 20% they have annexed they
have annexed the Russians have annexed four oblas plus Korea and I believe that
they will try to enex another for oblas and at the same time they're going to go
to Great Lengths to turn Ukraine into a dysfunctional rump State a dysfunctional
rump State they will interfere in the PO politics of Ukraine they will interfere with the Ukrainian economy and they will
do everything they can to wreck Ukraine and keep it wrecked as they said they
would in 2008 and they have consistently said
afterwards now the problem here I mean aside from the fact that this is a
devastating defeat for Ukraine the problem is Ukraine won't be knocked out
of the fight completely and what you will get at some point is not a peace agreement you're
not going to get a peace agreement here you're going to get a frozen conflict the fighting will stop there'll be a
ceasefire and you'll have a frozen conflict it'll be a lot like Korea on the 38th parallel as you all know North
Korea on one side South Korea on the other you'll have a frozen conflict and the potential for escalation will be
ever present and you want to understand the United States will be involved OLED
in Ukraine in Eastern Europe doing everything it can to damage Russia we
will not lose gracefully we will not lose in Ukraine and pivot to Asia we
will stay in Ukraine we will continue to support Ukraine we will continue to look
for opportunities to screw the Russians and the Russians will look for opportunities to screw us you'll have
this nasty security competition in Eastern Europe there's no end in sight
to the trouble that we are now facing in Ukraine which by the way tells you what
a massive mistake we made in April 2008 trying to bring Ukraine into NATO but my
bottom line to you here is that that makes it very difficult to
Pivot so that's the Ukraine issue and if I had come here
last month instead of coming this month at this point in time I would have
stopped the talk here right but now we have another
massive problem confronting us that I don't know who saw coming I certainly
didn't the Israelis certain didn't certainly didn't see it coming but
if you go back to October 6th it looked like the Middle East was a
peaceful region uh compared to what was going on in Eastern Europe uh it looked
like a remarkably um peaceful area uh and Jake
suvin as you know basically said that uh that the Middle East hadn't looked so
good in a long time but then came October 7th and Hamas attacked
Israel and uh in a deadly effective
way and of course the Israelis uh have reacted by declaring war on Hamas and
you now have this giant conflict between Israel and Hamas that threatens to
escalate to where has law might come in Conflict might break out on the West
Bank or even the Iranians might come in
so this is a really dangerous situation and much like
Ukraine we're going to sink deeper into the mud here and this one's not going away anytime soon right now why do I say
that first thing you want to keep in mind when you talk about Israel and the
United States is that the two countries are joined at the hip there's just no question about that I don't think this
is a controversial issue I don't think you've ever had a closer relationship between any two countries than you have
between Israel and the United States so it's very hard for the United States in
any meaningful way to distance itself from Israel so that's the first point
you want to keep in mind second point you want to keep in mind is that the tap rot of the the problem here is the
Israel Palestine or the Israel Palestinian conflict that that's the Tap
Root and you just have to understand what that conflict looks like this is a
longstanding conflict as you all know but you just want to understand its Essence because that tells you a lot
about what's happening now and what is likely to happen over
time the United States has been deeply interested in creating a
two-state solution as most of you I'm sure know in uh Israel and what the
United States has been interested in doing is creating a Palestinian state in the West Bank and in Gaza and in East
Jerusalem living next door to a Jewish State Israel we have failed we've not been
able to push the Israelis to accept that and uh there's no two-state solution so
what the Israelis now have and which the government in Israel wants is greater
Israel greater Israel includes the West Bank Gaza and 1967 Israel or green line
Israel okay that's greater Israel the key point you want to keep in mind is
that there are approximately 7.3 million Palestinians and
approximately 7.3 million Israeli Jews in Greater
Israel there is rough equality between Palestinians and Israeli
Jews you just want to think about that so when you think about Israel and you think about Israel as the Jewish state
which is completely understandable you want to understand that that Jewish state has as many Palestinians in it as
it has Jews and by the way there's a very prominent uh demog uh demographic expert who is Israeli who argues that
they're slightly more Palestinians than there are Jews inside greater Israel and
furthermore when you look at demographic Trends over time they're going to be
more Palestinians than there are Jews and this is a Jewish state so the
question is what do you do here uh and what has happened is that the Israelis
do not want want to give equal rights to the Palestinians because if they gave equal rights to the Palestinians Israel
Would S cease to be a Jewish State because they're more Palestinians than there are Jews if not now certainly in
the future so in the case of the Palestinians who are in Gaza right
basically they have been cordoned off they have been isolated in Gaza and it
is common place to refer to Gaza as the largest open air prison in the world and
if you read virtually any account of what life is like for those Palestinians
who live in Gaza it is absolutely horrible there is just no question about
that they live under horrible conditions in effect in a prison you want to
understand that Israel controls the borders around Gaza and it controls the Arab above Gaza these are not disputable
issues and again there're about 2.1 million of those 7.3
million Palestinians in Gaza and the
fact is that the Israelis who have been
playing hard ball with the Palestinian since 1948 when the state of
Israel was created our in situation where the
Palestinians are going to erupt from time to time most of us in this audience
have heard of the first inata we have heard of the second inata the inas were
uprisings by the Palestinians the Palestinians want their own nation state
just as the Jews wanted their own nation state it's perfectly understandable that
the zionists were interested in coming to Palestine and creating a Jewish State a Jewish
nation state that's completely understandable but as my mother taught me when I was a little boy what's good
for the goose is good for the gander and if the Jews want their own nation state are you surprised that the Palestinians
want their own nation state no and American policy makers especially American pres presidents going back to
Jimmy Carter understood this completely and put enormous should have put
enormous pressure on Israel to accept a two-state solution but we were incapable
of doing that we could not put great pressure on Israel and the end result is
you have a greater Israel and inside that greater Israel are 7.3 million
Palestinians and just to take this a step further it's very controversial to refer to Israel as an apartheid state
given how they treat the Palestinians but Human Rights Watch
Amnesty International and bet selum bet selum is one of the leading human rights
groups in the world and it's an Israeli Human Rights group Human Rights Watch
Amnesty International and bet selum all have produced significant reports that
label Israel as an aparte state so this is the reality that you now
face and the problem is there is no way
the Israelis are ever going to agree to a two St solution because the political center of gravity in Israel has moved
far to the right over time and is likely to move further to the right over time
if you look at the Israeli demographic situation uh Israeli women have large
numbers of babies uh compared to Western birth rates but your average Ultra
orthodox woman has about seven babies so what's happening is that the
ultra Orthodox who now represent 133% of the population will probably represent
about 30% of the population in 2050 or 2060 they're growing significantly in
number and the older Orthodox I mean they're a problem for a variety of reasons for Israel because first of all
they don't serve in the military secondly uh the husbands don't work and
in effect live on welfare uh but furthermore their politics are far to the right the old Orthodox are not going
to be sympathetic to a two-state solution furthermore after what happened on October 7th what do you think the
Israelis are going to say when you say let's move towards a two-state solution they're going to look at you like you're
crazy given what happened on October 7th so all of this is just to say the only
hope is in my opinion of ever settling this conflict between the
Palestinians and the Jews inside of Greater Israel was a two-state solution
and a two-state solution is not going to happen that train has left the station
and again as I said to you it's very important to understand that the United States has joined at the hip with the
Israelis and therefore uh as this situation continues to faster in Israel
we are inextricably bound up in it let me just take this a step further talk
about the Israeli Palestinian conflict first of all we have a
deep-seated interest in stability in the Middle East we were working before
October 7th you all remember with Saudi Arabia to get Saudi Arabia and Israel to
reach some sort of accommodation the Abraham Accords that we had helped
facilitate during the Trump years between Israel and Bahrain Israel and Morocco and Israel in the United Arab
Emirates where relations between Israel and those three countries had significantly improved the Biden
Administration was trying to get another Abraham Accord this one which would have been the big enchilada involving Israel
and Saudi Arabia that's all gone now Saudi Arabia is adamantly opposed to
what's happening uh with regard to the Israeli uh war against the
Palestinians uh there's a possibility Hezbollah may come into this conflict
the Israelis in Hezbollah are exchanging rocket fire up on Israel's northern
border there's a possibility that Iran might come in as I said before there's a possibility that conflict will break out
on the West Bank approximately 90 Palestinians have been killed on the West Bank since October 7th
the potential for this one spiraling out of control within the context of the Middle East is really uh very very
worrisome and by the way you understand you know we sent this Armada this aircraft carrier battle group The Gerald
USS Gerald Ford aircraft carrier battle group off the coast put it off the coast
of Israel it shot down three cruise missiles US forces shot down three
cruise missiles that the houthis and Yemen had fired at Israel so in a very
important way we've already been involved in of course a very tiny way in the fighting and if this one spins out
of control in a big way we're likely to get Dragged In and furthermore as I told
you there's no hope of this going away anytime soon then there's the Diplomatic Dimension to this the Russians and the
Chinese just love this situation right and they're saying all sorts of things about how the Americans failed to
produce a diplomatic solution that would have given the Palestinians a state of
their own and this is of course a message that resonates all around the planet right we're in all sorts of
trouble in the Arab world this may lead to another Oil Embargo um uh and furthermore in the
global South the global South we're very interested in winning the allegiance of
the global South especially to help us in Ukraine we're in deep trouble in the global South as a result of this so in
terms of stability in the Middle East in terms of our diplomatic position around the world as a result of the Arab
Israeli conflict or the Palestinian Israeli conflict we're we're in deep trouble right and again this is one of
these situations that has no solution I mean that I can see I hope I'm wrong I
hope I'm humiliated and a year from now when I return when Tom brings me back I
can say I was wrong right the same thing is true with Ukraine but I don't see the Ukraine situation or
the Middle East situation looking any better brings me to my bottom line we
have a pure competitor the Biden Administration as far as I'm concerned to a person will tell you that the
principal threat the United States of America faces is China there is nobody who disagrees that China is our biggest
threat but what I'm telling you is we're in a situation where we can't fully pivot to
Asia to deal with that threat because we're pinned down in the Middle East now
and before that in Ukraine furthermore
furthermore the Russians who should be on our side because of our foolish policies have pushed them onto the side
of the Chinese this is not good and the final
point that I'll leave you with is as you know we in the west and I'm sure this is true of many Australians love the rules
based on order right we always talk about the rules-based order we think it's important to obey the rules and the
west of course United States has played a key role in establishing that rules-based order which is in our
interest but the rules-based order is in tatters as a result of Ukraine the
Middle East uh and assorted other forms of behavior by the United States so all
of this is to say we are in the Deep kimchi thank you