Jim Sciutto 影子戰爭 俄羅斯和中國擊敗美國秘密行動

Jim Sciutto，《影子戰爭：揭秘俄羅斯和中國擊敗美國的秘密行動》。

美國對“影子戰爭”的看法

https://en.unav.edu/web/global-affairs/detalle/-/blogs/la-percepcion-americana-sobre-la-guerra-en-la-sombra-

Jim Sciutto，《影子戰爭：揭秘俄羅斯和中國擊敗美國的秘密行動》。哈斯珀柯林斯出版社。紐約，2019 年。308 頁]

評論/Álvaro de Lecea

《影子戰爭：揭秘俄羅斯和中國擊敗美國的秘密行動》隨著冷戰的結束，前蘇聯與勝利的美國對立，國際體係從兩極轉向後者主導的霸權。在美國的領導下，西方專注於民主和商業全球化的傳播，如果說西方的地緣戰略關注點是什麽的話，那就是 9/11 基地組織對雙子塔的襲擊，因此關注的焦點發生了變化，今天的俄羅斯被推到了幕後。然而，俄羅斯繼續在舊敵的陰影下慢慢重建自己，而舊敵已不再表現出多大興趣。中國加入了俄羅斯的行列，開始突飛猛進。此時，美國開始意識到，有兩個大國緊隨其後，它正在卷入一場它甚至不知道存在的戰爭：影子戰爭。

這是 CNN 首席國家安全記者 Jim Sciutto 用來描述他在整本書中詳細描述的內容以及後來被稱為混合戰爭或灰色地帶戰爭的術語。修托更喜歡談論影子戰爭，也可以翻譯為暗中戰爭，因為這更能體現出它在公開或常規戰爭的雷達下的隱形性。

這場新戰爭是由俄羅斯和中國發起的，它們不是盟友，而是有共同敵人的國家：美國。這是一個混合戰爭主題，因此包含軍事和非軍事手段。另一方麵，它並不設想兩大集團之間發生直接的軍事對抗。在《影子戰爭：俄羅斯和中國擊敗美國的秘密行動》一書中，修托解釋了七種情況，在這些情況下，可以清楚地觀察到中國和俄羅斯正在采取的擊敗美國的戰略，從而成為世界主要大國並實施自己的國際規範。

首先，值得注意的是，俄羅斯和中國雖然采取了類似的戰略，但卻是不同類型的對手：一方麵，中國是一個崛起的大國，而俄羅斯更像是一個正在衰落的大國，正在試圖恢複昔日的自我。然而，兩國都有許多相似之處。首先，兩國都試圖擴大其在各自地區的影響力。其次，兩國都遭受著國內合法性危機。第三，兩國都試圖糾正曆史錯誤，恢複其所認為的國家作為世界領導者的合法地位。最後，兩國都具有高度的民族團結，因此大多數人口都會為國家做任何必要的事情。

在影子戰爭中，由於俄羅斯和中國製定的規則，任何主要參與者都可以獲勝，無論其對其他國際參與者的權力或影響力如何。根據國際辦公室的理論，這些規則可以被視為遵循了一個非常現實的守護神，因為在某種程度上，任何事情都可以取勝。謊言和欺騙的力量是當今的主流，人們認為不可想象的界限被跨越了。正如書中所解釋和闡述的，中國在南海建造的人工島嶼軍事化，而習近平本人曾承諾不會這樣做；2016 年美國大選期間，俄羅斯黑客入侵民主黨計算機係統，這可能幫助唐納德·特朗普獲勝，這些都是例子。

除此之外，還必須補充一個非傳統戰爭背景下正在發生的事情的重要部分：美國對正在發生的一切都抱有特別錯誤的想法。首先，正如 Sciutto 所解釋的那樣，美國犯下的第一個錯誤是忽視了俄羅斯作為國際舞台上的一個相關焦點。它認為，在冷戰中擊敗俄羅斯後，俄羅斯將不再重新成為一個大國，因此沒有看到俄羅斯在總統弗拉基米爾·普京的領導下正在緩慢成長的明顯跡象。同樣，它也沒有理解中國政府在南海或潛艇學位課程等情況下的真實意圖。所有這些可以總結為，美國認為所有國際行為者都會遵守華盛頓在冷戰後製定的規則，而沒有想到他們會創造一個新的局麵。總之，美國不了解自己的對手。

在他的最新一章中，Sciutto 明確表示，美國目前正在輸掉這場戰爭。它最大的錯誤是沒有意識到

直到它領先於我們，現在它發現自己處於不利地位。確實，美國在許多方麵仍處於世界領先地位，但俄羅斯和中國正在其他方麵超越它，遵循它們自己製定的新規則。然而，美國政策態度的改變可能會扭轉局勢。作者提出了一些可以幫助美國重新領先的解決方案。

他提出的解決方案首先側重於對敵人及其戰略的全麵了解。這一直是他最大的劣勢，也是開始控製地位的第一步。同樣，它建議盟軍集團內部更加團結，並改善自身的防禦。他還建議更好地了解整個衝突發生的新情景，因此一係列規範這些新空間（如網絡空間）的國際條約將大有幫助。此外，他建議對敵人的行動設定明確的限製，提高此類行動的成本和後果。最後，它鼓勵美國發揮明確的領導作用。

總之，Sciutto 的論點是，美國發現自己正在打一場它剛剛才發現其存在的戰爭。這是一場它不習慣的戰爭，其規則也與它所宣揚的完全不同。雖然它仍然是當前國際體係的領導者，但它發現自己正在輸掉這場遊戲，因為中國和俄羅斯已經能夠發現其對手的弱點並加以利用。美國最大的錯誤就是忽視這場影子戰爭的所有跡象，不采取任何行動。作者認為，新的場景已經出現，遊戲規則也發生了變化，因此，如果美國想扭轉局麵，再次成為勝利者，就必須比以往任何時候都更加團結，加強聯盟，比以往任何時候都更了解敵人及其意圖。

就對這本書的評價而言，可以說它成功地簡明扼要地傳達了這場新競賽中最相關的要點。它設法明確每個參與者的優勢和劣勢，並評估當前狀況。然而，作者並沒有過於客觀地判斷。在承認美國失敗的同時，他對其競爭對手進行了負麵評價，理所當然地認為誰是好人，誰是壞人。在某些情況下缺乏客觀性，因為好人並不總是那麽好，壞人也並不總是那麽壞。話雖如此，Sciutto 對世界主要大國目前所處的國際地位進行了很好的分析。

Jim Sciutto, The Shadow War: Inside Russia's and China's Secret Operations to Defeat America.

America's perception of the 'Shadow War

https://en.unav.edu/web/global-affairs/detalle/-/blogs/la-percepcion-americana-sobre-la-guerra-en-la-sombra-

Jim Sciutto, The Shadow War: Inside Russia's and China's Secret Operations to Defeat America. Hasper-Collins. New York, 2019. 308 p.]

review / Álvaro de Lecea

With the end of the Cold War, which pitted the former Soviet Union against the victorious United States of America, the international system shifted from bipolar to a hegemony led by the latter. With the United States in the lead, the West focused on the spread of democracy and commercial globalisation, and if anything the geo-strategic preoccupation of the West was focused on the Al-Qaeda attacks on the Twin Towers on 9/11, so the focus of attention shifted and today's Russia was pushed into the background. However, Russia continued to slowly reconstitute itself in the shadow of its old enemy, which no longer showed much interest. Russia was joined by China, which began to grow by leaps and bounds. At this point, the United States began to realise that it had two major powers on its heels and that it was engaged in a war it did not even know existed: the Shadow War.

This is the term used by Jim Sciutto, CNN's chief national security correspondent, to describe what he describes in detail throughout his book and what has largely come to be known as hybrid or grey zone warfare. Sciutto prefers to speak of Shadow War, which could be translated as war in the shadows, because this better denotes its character of invisibility under the radar of open or conventional warfare.

This new war was started by Russia and China, not as allies, but as powers with a common enemy: the United States. It is a hybrid war subject and therefore contains both military and non-military methods. On the other hand, it does not envisage a direct military confrontation between the two blocs. In The Shadow War: Inside Russia's and China's Secret Operations to Defeat America, Sciutto explains seven situations in which the strategies being pursued by China and Russia to defeat the United States in order to become the world's major powers and impose their own international norms can be clearly observed.

First, it is important to note that Russia and China, while pursuing similar strategies, are different types of adversaries: on the one hand, China is a rising power, while Russia is more of a declining power that is trying to return to its former self. Nevertheless, both share a number of similarities. First, both seek to expand their influence in their own regions. Second, both are suffering from a crisis of legitimacy within their borders. Third, both seek to right the wrongs of history and restore what they perceive as their countries' legitimate positions as world leaders. And finally, they possess great national unity, so that the majority of their populations would do whatever is necessary for their nation.

In the shadow war, thanks to the rules established by Russia and China, any major actor can win, regardless of its power or influence over other international actors. Following the theories of International Office, these rules could be considered to follow a very realistic patron saint , since, in a way, anything goes to win. The power of lies and deception is the order of the day, and lines that were thought unthinkable are crossed. Examples of this, as the book explains and elaborates, are the militarisation of the artificial islands built by China in the South China Sea when Xi Jinping himself had promised not to do so, or the hacking of the Democratic Party's computer system in the 2016 US election campaign by Russian hackers, which may have helped Donald Trump emerge victorious.

To all this must be added an essential part of what is happening in this context of non-traditional warfare: the particularly mistaken idea that the United States has about everything that is happening. To begin with, the first mistake the US made, as Sciutto explains, was to neglect Russia as a relevant focus in the international arena. It believed that, having defeated it in the Cold War, the country would no longer re-emerge as a power, and so failed to see the clear clues that it was slowly growing, led by President Vladimir Putin. Similarly, it failed to understand the Chinese government's true intentions in situations such as the South China Sea or the degree program submarines. All of this can be summed up as the US believing that all international actors would play by the rules established by Washington after the Cold War, without imagining that they would create a new scenario. In conclusion, the US did not understand its opponents.

In his latest chapter, Sciutto makes it clear that the US is currently losing the war. Its biggest mistake was not realising status until it was in front of it and it now finds itself playing on a disadvantaged stage. It is true that the US remains the world leader in many respects, but Russia and China are overtaking it in others, following the new rules they themselves have set. However, a change of attitude in US policies could turn the tide. The author proposes a number of solutions that could help the US get back in the lead.

The solutions he proposes focus, in the first place, on the total knowledge of the enemy and its strategy. This has always been his great disadvantage and would be the first step to begin to control status. Similarly, it recommends greater unity within the Allied bloc, as well as an improvement of its own defences. He also recommends a better understanding of the new scenario in which the whole conflict is taking place, and therefore a series of international treaties regulating these new spaces, such as cyberspace, would be of great help financial aid. Further on, he proposes setting clear limits on enemy actions, raising the costs and consequences of such actions. Finally, it encourages the US to exercise clear leadership.

In conclusion, Sciutto's thesis is that the United States finds itself fighting a war whose existence it has only just discovered. It is a subject war that it is not used to and with a set of rules that are alien to what it preaches. While it is still the leader of the current international system, it finds itself losing the game because China and Russia have been able to discover its rival's weaknesses and use them to its advantage. America's biggest mistake was to ignore all the signs of this shadow war and do nothing about it. New scenarios have been introduced and the rules of the game have been changed, so the US, if it wants to turn status around and once again emerge as the victor, the author argues, will have to unite more than ever internally as a nation and strengthen its alliances, and know its enemies and their intentions better than ever before.

In terms of a evaluation of the book, it can be said that it succeeds in concisely and clearly conveying the most relevant points of this new contest. It manages to make clear the strengths and weaknesses of each actor and to take stock of the current status . However, the author does not manage to be too goal judgemental. While admitting the failings of the US, he gives a negative picture of its rivals, taking for granted who are the good guys and who are the bad guys. Objectivity is lacking in some cases, as the good guys are not always so good and the bad guys are not always so bad. That said, Sciutto provides a great analysis of the current international status in which the world's major powers find themselves.