風蕭蕭_Frank
以文會友
崩潰：社會如何選擇失敗或成功
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Collapse:_How_Societies_Choose_to_Fail_or_Succeed
（英國版標題為《崩潰：社會如何選擇失敗或生存》）
2005 年，學術和科普作家 Jared Diamond 出版了一本書，其中作者首先定義了崩潰：“在相當大的區域內，在很長一段時間內，人類人口規模和/或政治/經濟/社會複雜性的急劇下降。”然後，他回顧了曆史上和史前社會崩潰的原因——特別是那些涉及環境變化、氣候變化的影響、敵對鄰居、貿易夥伴以及社會對上述四個挑戰的反應的重大影響。它還考慮了為什麽社會可能沒有意識到問題，可能沒有決定嚐試解決方案，以及為什麽嚐試的解決方案可能會失敗。
雖然本書的大部分內容都與這些曆史文明的消亡有關，但戴蒙德還認為，人類在更大範圍內麵臨著許多相同的問題，這些問題可能在不久的將來給世界許多人口帶來災難性的後果。
概要[編輯]
戴蒙德說，複活節島是曆史上孤立社會崩潰的最佳例子。
在序言中，賈雷德·戴蒙德用一段話總結了他的方法論：
本書采用比較方法來了解環境問題導致的社會崩潰。我的上一本書（《槍炮、病菌與鋼鐵：人類社會的命運》）將比較方法應用於相反的問題：過去 13,000 年裏，不同大陸人類社會建設速度不同。本書關注的是崩潰而非建立，我比較了許多過去和現在的社會，這些社會在環境脆弱性、與鄰國的關係、政治製度和其他被認為影響社會穩定性的“輸入”變量方麵存在差異。我研究的“輸出”變量是崩潰或生存，以及崩潰發生時的崩潰形式。通過將輸出變量與輸入變量聯係起來，我旨在找出可能的輸入變量對崩潰的影響。[2]
過去社會的崩潰[編輯]
戴蒙德確定了導致崩潰的五個因素：氣候變化、敵對鄰國、重要貿易夥伴的崩潰、環境問題以及社會對上述四個因素的反應。
除了一個因素外，戴蒙德提到的導致崩潰的所有因素的根本問題都是人口過剩相對於環境的實際承載能力（而不是理想的理論承載能力）。一個與人口過剩無關的環境問題是意外或故意將非本地物種引入一個地區造成的有害影響。
戴蒙德還談到了文化因素（價值觀），例如格陵蘭島的挪威人似乎不願意吃魚。戴蒙德還指出，“聲稱環境破壞一定是所有崩潰的主要因素是荒謬的：蘇聯解體是一個現代的反例，公元前 146 年羅馬摧毀迦太基是一個古老的例子。顯然，單靠軍事或經濟因素就足以解決問題”。[3]
現代社會[編輯]
另請參閱：行星邊界
他還列出了當今人類麵臨的十二個環境問題。前八個因素在曆史上導致了過去社會的崩潰：
森林砍伐和棲息地破壞
土壤問題（侵蝕、鹽堿化和土壤肥力喪失）
水管理問題
過度捕撈
引進物種對本地物種的影響
人口過剩
人均人口影響增加
此外，他說，四個新因素可能導致現在和未來社會的衰弱和崩潰：
人為氣候變化
環境中毒素的積累
能源短缺
人類充分利用地球的光合作用能力
結論[編輯]
在最後一章中，他討論了現代社會麵臨的環境問題，並解決了經常被提出來否定環境問題重要性的反對意見（“一句話反對意見”一節[4]）。在“進一步閱讀”部分，他為那些問“作為個人，我能做什麽？”的人提供了建議。[5]他還得出了如下結論：
事實上，從瑪雅、阿納薩齊、複活節島民和其他古代社會的崩潰中可以學到的一個主要教訓是，一個社會的急劇衰落可能在社會達到其人口、財富和權力的頂峰十年或二十年後才開始。……原因很簡單：人口、財富、資源消耗和廢物生產達到最大限度意味著環境影響達到最大限度，接近影響超過資源的極限。[6]
最後，他回答了這個問題：“如果我們要成功而不是失敗，我們必須做出哪些選擇？”通過識別
兩個關鍵選擇將過去失敗的社會與幸存的社會區分開來：[7]
長期規劃：“……勇於實踐長期思考，在問題變得明顯但尚未達到危機程度時做出大膽、勇敢、預見性的決策。”[7] 戴蒙德說，當精英領導人的短期利益與社會的長期利益發生衝突時，情況會尤其糟糕，而精英們卻無法承受直接後果。[8]
願意重新考慮核心價值觀：“……勇於對價值觀做出痛苦的決定。哪些曾經為社會服務的價值觀可以在新的變化情況下繼續保持？哪些珍貴的價值觀必須被拋棄，用不同的方法取而代之？”[7]
書籍結構[編輯]
海地（左側）和多米尼加共和國（右側）之間的森林砍伐極限
中國工業工廠造成的空氣汙染
《崩潰》分為四個部分。
第一部分描述了美國蒙大拿州的環境，重點關注幾個人的生活，以人性化的方式展現社會與環境之間的相互作用。[a]
第二部分描述了過去已經崩潰的社會。戴蒙德在考慮社會崩潰時使用了一個“框架”，該框架由可能影響社會發展的五組“因素”組成：環境破壞、氣候變化、敵對鄰居、失去貿易夥伴以及社會對環境問題的反應。崩潰社會中反複出現的一個問題是，結構造成了“當權者的短期利益與整個社會的長期利益之間的衝突”。
戴蒙德描述的社會是：
格陵蘭島挪威人（參見 Hvalsey Church）（氣候變化、環境破壞、失去貿易夥伴、敵對鄰居、不合理地不願吃魚、酋長隻顧自己的短期利益）。
複活節島（戴蒙德認為，該社會因環境破壞而徹底崩潰）
皮特凱恩島的波利尼西亞人（環境破壞和貿易夥伴的喪失）
北美西南部的阿納薩齊人（環境破壞和氣候變化）
中美洲的瑪雅人（環境破壞、氣候變化和敵對鄰居）
最後，戴蒙德討論了過去的三個成功故事：
平等主義的太平洋小島蒂科皮亞島
平等主義的新幾內亞中部農業的成功
德川時代分層的日本和德國的森林管理。
第三部分探討現代社會，包括：
盧旺達因人口過剩而陷入種族滅絕
海地的失敗與其在伊斯帕尼奧拉島的鄰國多米尼加共和國的相對成功相比
發展中國家中國麵臨的問題
第一世界國家澳大利亞麵臨的問題
第四部分通過考慮商業和全球化等主題來結束研究，並“為我們今天汲取實踐教訓”（第 22-23 頁）。特別關注了圩田模式，這是荷蘭社會應對挑戰的一種方式，以及我們現在必須采取的“自上而下”和最重要的“自下而上”的方法，因為“我們的世界社會目前正走在一條不可持續的道路上”（第 498 頁），以避免他在整本書中闡述並在最後一章中回顧的“12 個不可持續性問題”。這項調查的結果或許就是為什麽戴蒙德仍然看到了“希望的跡象”，並對我們所有人的未來持“謹慎樂觀”的態度。
第二版包含後記：吳哥的興衰。
評論[編輯]
蒂姆·弗蘭納裏在《科學》雜誌上對《崩潰》給予了最高的評價，他寫道：[10]
在策劃這本書時，戴蒙德最初認為它隻會涉及人類對環境的影響。相反，這本書的出現可以說是有史以來對衰老的人類文明最深入的研究。……世界上最具獨創性的思想家之一選擇在他的職業生涯達到頂峰時撰寫這部巨著，這一事實本身就是一個有說服力的論點，表明必須認真對待《崩潰》。這可能是你讀過的最重要的一本書。
《經濟學人》的評論總體上是有利的，盡管評論者有兩個不同意見。首先，評論者認為戴蒙德對未來不夠樂觀。其次，評論者聲稱《崩潰》包含一些錯誤的統計數據：例如，戴蒙德誇大了世界上饑餓人口的數量。[11] 不列顛哥倫比亞大學生態規劃教授威廉·裏斯寫道，《崩潰》最重要的教訓是，最能避免崩潰的社會是最靈活的社會，能夠采取有利於自身生存的做法，避免不利的做法。此外，裏斯寫道，《崩潰》是朱利安·西蒙的追隨者的“必要解藥”，他
裏斯對這一論斷的解釋如下：[12]
人類對生態圈的行為已經變得功能失調，現在可能威脅到我們自己的長期安全。真正的問題是，現代世界仍然受到危險的虛幻文化神話的影響。與隆伯格一樣，大多數政府和國際機構似乎都認為，人類事業在某種程度上與環境“脫鉤”，因此準備無限擴張。賈裏德·戴蒙德的新書《崩潰》直麵了這一矛盾。
由煤炭開采支持的智庫公共事務研究所的詹妮弗·馬羅哈西在《能源與環境》上發表了一篇批評性評論，特別是其中關於澳大利亞環境惡化的章節。馬羅哈西聲稱，戴蒙德反映了一種流行的觀點，這種觀點得到了澳大利亞環保運動的支持，但沒有證據支持，並認為他的許多說法很容易被推翻。[13]
馬爾科姆·格拉德威爾在《紐約客》的評論中強調了戴蒙德的方法不同於傳統曆史學家，他關注的是環境問題而不是文化問題。[14]
戴蒙德對社會生存和生物生存的區分至關重要，因為我們常常將兩者混為一談，或者認為生物生存取決於我們文明價值觀的力量……但事實是，我們可以遵紀守法、愛好和平、寬容、富有創造力、致力於自由、忠於自己的價值觀，但仍然會做出生物自殺的行為。
雖然戴蒙德並不拒絕傳統曆史學家的方法，但根據格拉德威爾的說法，他的書生動地說明了這種方法的局限性。格拉德威爾以自己最近在俄勒岡州舉行的投票倡議為例，證明了這一點，在該倡議中，財產權和其他自由問題得到了自由和健康的辯論，但嚴肅的生態問題卻很少受到關注。
2006 年，該書入圍了安萬特科學圖書獎，最終輸給了大衛·博達尼斯的《電子宇宙》。[15]
批評[編輯]
賈裏德·戴蒙德認為複活節島社會完全由於環境破壞和文化僵化而孤立地崩潰，這一論點受到一些民族誌學家和考古學家的質疑，他們認為歐洲殖民者攜帶的疾病和奴隸襲擊[16]在 19 世紀摧毀了人口，其社會影響遠大於環境惡化，而引入的動物（首先是老鼠，然後是綿羊）是導致島上本土植物喪失的主要原因，直到 1930-1960 年間，島上的本土植物才最接近森林砍伐。[17] 荷蘭曆史學家魯特格·布雷格曼在《人類：充滿希望的曆史》（2019 年）一書中的一章強烈駁斥了戴蒙德對複活節島崩潰的描述。[18]
《質疑崩潰》（劍橋大學出版社，2010 年）是 15 位考古學家、文化人類學家和曆史學家撰寫的論文集，對戴蒙德的《崩潰》和《槍炮、病菌與鋼鐵》等著作的各個方麵進行了批評。[19] 這本書是 2006 年美國人類學協會會議的成果，該會議旨在回應戴蒙德的科普出版物所造成的錯誤信息，該協會決定召集多個研究領域的專家來報道戴蒙德的主張並揭穿它們。這本書包括戴蒙德所討論的崩潰社會的土著人民的研究，以及這些社區的活生生的例子，以展示這本書的主題，即社會如何具有彈性並隨著時間的推移轉變為新的形式，而不是崩潰。[20][21]
電影[編輯]
2010 年，國家地理發布了根據戴蒙德的書改編的紀錄片《崩潰》。[22]
Collapse: How Societies Choose to Fail or Succeed
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Collapse:_How_Societies_Choose_to_Fail_or_Succeed
(titled Collapse: How Societies Choose to Fail or Survive for the British edition)
A 2005 book by academic and popular science author Jared Diamond, in which the author first defines collapse: "a drastic decrease in human population size and/or political/economic/social complexity, over a considerable area, for an extended time." He then reviews the causes of historical and pre-historical instances of societal collapse—particularly those involving significant influences from environmental changes, the effects of climate change, hostile neighbors, trade partners, and the society's response to the foregoing four challenges. It also considers why societies might not perceive a problem, might not decide to attempt a solution, and why an attempted solution might fail.
While the bulk of the book is concerned with the demise of these historical civilizations, Diamond also argues that humanity collectively faces, on a much larger scale, many of the same issues, with possibly catastrophic near-future consequences to many of the world's populations.
In the prologue, Jared Diamond summarizes his methodology in one paragraph:
Diamond identifies five factors that contribute to collapse: climate change, hostile neighbours, collapse of essential trading partners, environmental problems, and the society's response to the foregoing four factors.
The root problem in all but one of Diamond's factors leading to collapse is overpopulation relative to the practicable (as opposed to the ideal theoretical) carrying capacity of the environment. One environmental problem not related to overpopulation is the harmful effect of accidental or intentional introduction of non-native species to a region.
Diamond also writes about cultural factors (values), such as the apparent reluctance of the Greenland Norse to eat fish. Diamond also states that "it would be absurd to claim that environmental damage must be a major factor in all collapses: the collapse of the Soviet Union is a modern counter-example, and the destruction of Carthage by Rome in 146 BC is an ancient one. It's obviously true that military or economic factors alone may suffice".[3]
He also lists twelve environmental problems facing humankind today. The first eight have historically contributed to the collapse of past societies:
- Deforestation and habitat destruction
- Soil problems (erosion, salinization, and soil fertility losses)
- Water management problems
- Overhunting
- Overfishing
- Effects of introduced species on native species
- Overpopulation
- Increased per-capita impact of people
Further, he says four new factors may contribute to the weakening and collapse of present and future societies:
- Anthropogenic climate change
- Buildup of toxins in the environment
- Energy shortages
- Full human use of the Earth's photosynthetic capacity
In the last chapter, he discusses environmental problems facing modern societies and addresses objections that are often given to dismiss the importance of environmental problems (section "One-liner objections"[4]). In the "Further readings" section, he gives suggestions to people who ask "What can I do as an individual?".[5] He also draws conclusions, such as:
Finally, he answers the question, "What are the choices that we must make if we are to succeed, and not to fail?" by identifying two crucial choices distinguishing the past societies that failed from those that survived:[7]
- Long-term planning: "... the courage to practice long-term thinking, and to make bold, courageous, anticipatory decisions at a time when problems have become perceptible but before they have reached crisis proportions."[7] Diamond says it can be especially bad when the short-term interest of elite leaders conflicts with the long-term interests of the society, and the elite are insulated from the direct consequences.[8]
- Willingness to reconsider core values: "... the courage to make painful decisions about values. Which of the values that formerly served a society well can continue to be maintained under new changed circumstances? Which of these treasured values must instead be jettisoned and replaced with different approaches?"[7]
Collapse is divided into four parts.
Part One describes the environment of the US state of Montana, focusing on the lives of several individuals to put a human face on the interplay between society and the environment.[a]
Part Two describes past societies that have collapsed. Diamond uses a "framework" when considering the collapse of a society, consisting of five "sets of factors" that may affect what happens to a society: environmental damage, climate change, hostile neighbors, loss of trading partners, and the society's responses to its environmental problems. A recurrent problem in collapsing societies is a structure that creates "a conflict between the short-term interests of those in power, and the long-term interests of the society as a whole."
The societies Diamond describes are:
- The Greenland Norse (cf. Hvalsey Church) (climate change, environmental damage, loss of trading partners, hostile neighbors, irrational reluctance to eat fish, chiefs looking after their short-term interests).
- Easter Island (a society that, Diamond contends, collapsed entirely due to environmental damage)
- The Polynesians of Pitcairn Island (environmental damage and loss of trading partners)
- The Anasazi of southwestern North America (environmental damage and climate change)
- The Maya of Central America (environmental damage, climate change, and hostile neighbors)
- Finally, Diamond discusses three past success stories:
- The tiny egalitarian Pacific island of Tikopia
- The agricultural success of egalitarian central New Guinea
- The forest management in stratified Japan of the Tokugawa-era, and in Germany.
Part Three examines modern societies, including:
- The collapse into genocide of Rwanda, caused in part by overpopulation
- The failure of Haiti compared with the relative success of its neighbor on Hispaniola, the Dominican Republic
- The problems facing a developing nation, China
- The problems facing a First World nation, Australia
Part Four concludes the study by considering such subjects as business and globalization, and "extracts practical lessons for us today" (pp. 22–23). Specific attention is given to the polder model as a way Dutch society has addressed its challenges and the "top-down" and most importantly "bottom-up" approaches that we must take now that "our world society is presently on a non-sustainable course" (p. 498) in order to avoid the "12 problems of non-sustainability" that he expounds throughout the book, and reviews in the final chapter. The results of this survey are perhaps why Diamond sees "signs of hope" nevertheless and arrives at a position of "cautious optimism" for all our futures.
The second edition contains an Afterword: Angkor's Rise and Fall.
Tim Flannery gave Collapse the highest praise in Science, writing:[10]
The Economist's review was generally favorable, although the reviewer had two disagreements. First, the reviewer felt Diamond was not optimistic enough about the future. Secondly, the reviewer claimed Collapse contains some erroneous statistics: for instance, Diamond purportedly overstated the number of starving people in the world.[11] University of British Columbia professor of ecological planning William Rees wrote that Collapse's most important lesson is that societies most able to avoid collapse are the ones that are most agile, able to adopt practices favorable to their own survival and avoid unfavorable ones. Moreover, Rees wrote that Collapse is "a necessary antidote" to followers of Julian Simon, such as Bjørn Lomborg who authored The Skeptical Environmentalist. Rees explained this assertion as follows:[12]
Jennifer Marohasy of the coal-mining backed think-tank Institute of Public Affairs wrote a critical review in Energy & Environment, in particular its chapter on Australia's environmental degradation. Marohasy claims that Diamond reflects a popular view that is reinforced by environmental campaigning in Australia, but is not supported by evidence, and argues that many of his claims are easily disproved.[13]
In his review in The New Yorker, Malcolm Gladwell highlights the way Diamond's approach differs from traditional historians by focusing on environmental issues rather than cultural questions.[14]
While Diamond does not reject the approach of traditional historians, his book, according to Gladwell, vividly illustrates the limitations of that approach. Gladwell demonstrates this with his own example of a recent ballot initiative in Oregon, where questions of property rights and other freedoms were subject to a free and healthy debate, but serious ecological questions were given scant attention.
In 2006 the book was shortlisted for The Aventis Prizes for Science Books award, eventually losing out to David Bodanis's Electric Universe.[15]
Jared Diamond's thesis that Easter Island society collapsed in isolation entirely due to environmental damage and cultural inflexibility is contested by some ethnographers and archaeologists, who argue that the introduction of diseases carried by European colonizers and slave raiding,[16] which devastated the population in the 19th century, had a much greater social impact than environmental decline, and that introduced animals—first rats and then sheep—were greatly responsible for the island's loss of native flora, which came closest to deforestation as late as 1930–1960.[17] Diamond's account of the Easter Island collapse is strongly refuted in a chapter of the book Humankind: A Hopeful History (2019) by Dutch historian Rutger Bregman.[18]
The book Questioning Collapse (Cambridge University Press, 2010) is a collection of essays by fifteen archaeologists, cultural anthropologists, and historians criticizing various aspects of Diamond's books Collapse and Guns, Germs and Steel.[19] The book was a result of 2006 meeting of the American Anthropological Association in response to the misinformation that Diamond's popular science publications were causing and the association decided to combine experts from multiple fields of research to cover the claims made in Diamond's and debunk them. The book includes research from indigenous peoples of the societies Diamond discussed as collapsed and also vignettes of living examples of those communities, in order to showcase the main theme of the book on how societies are resilient and change into new forms over time, rather than collapsing.[20][21]
In 2010, National Geographic released the documentary film Collapse based on Diamond's book.[22]
