風蕭蕭_Frank
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曆史學家尼爾·弗格森：論新的邪惡軸心、中國和冷戰 2.0（訪談摘錄）
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4ev_WmryZfY
亞洲觀察家 + 見解
2024 年 8 月 11 日
本視頻展示了對蘇格蘭裔美國曆史學家尼爾·弗格森爵士的兩次采訪的剪輯片段，他是胡佛研究所的米爾班克家族高級研究員和哈佛大學貝爾弗科學與國際事務中心的高級研究員。
第一次采訪——題為“曆史學家弗格森眼中西方麵臨的四大威脅”——由《巴倫周刊》於 2023 年 10 月進行。
第二次采訪題為“尼爾·弗格森眼中的 2024 年世界：危機、衝突和新的邪惡軸心”，於 2024 年 6 月在英國現場進行。
這段剪輯過的視頻隻包括與“新的邪惡軸心”有關的片段：中國、俄羅斯和伊朗，以及討論習近平、台灣、冷戰 2.0、中共的未來以及與中國緩和關係的智慧的片段。
與尼爾·弗格森一起展望 2024 年的世界：危機、衝突和後果
https://www.intelligencesquared.com/events/the-world-in-2024-with-niall-ferguson-crisis-conflict-and-consequences/
西方如何應對弗格森所謂的惡意軸心——俄羅斯、中國和伊朗——所帶來的地緣政治和意識形態威脅？
“研究過去的目的是為了了解我們目前的困境”——尼爾·弗格森
很少有大思想家比曆史學家尼爾·弗格森更適合解釋全球事件。他不僅對過去的危機有著深刻的理解，而且還具有非凡的能力來規劃當前危機對世界事務的長期影響。
2024 年 4 月，弗格森加入我們，登上 Intelligence Squared 舞台，討論我們目前麵臨的困境。西方如何應對弗格森所謂的惡意軸心——俄羅斯、中國和伊朗——所帶來的地緣政治和意識形態威脅？烏克蘭和中東的局部戰爭以及台灣危機的威脅，我們是否正在夢遊般地走向第三次世界大戰？持續不斷的衝突可能對世界經濟造成什麽後果？
弗格森探討了這些緊迫的問題，並分享了他對快速變化的全球格局的見解。
尼爾·弗格森
英國最著名的曆史學家之一，他的最新著作是《末日：災難的政治》
裏圖拉·沙阿記者兼 Classic FM 主持人
末日：災難的政治
https://www.amazon.ca/Doom-Politics-Catastrophe-Niall-Ferguson/dp/0593297393/ref=
作者：Niall Ferguson (Author) 2022 年 7 月 5 日
“從某種意義上說，所有災難都是人為的。”
Niall Ferguson 從曆史的角度看待 2020 年的災難之年，解釋了為什麽我們在處理災難方麵越來越糟糕，而不是越來越好。
災難本質上很難預測。流行病，如地震、野火、金融危機和戰爭，不是正態分布的；沒有曆史循環可以幫助我們預測下一次災難。但是當災難來臨時，我們應該比維蘇威火山爆發時的羅馬人或黑死病來襲時的中世紀意大利人準備得更充分。畢竟，我們有科學支持我們。
然而，2020 年，包括美國在內的許多發達國家對來自中國的新型病毒的應對措施卻大錯特錯。為什麽？為什麽隻有少數亞洲國家從 SARS 和 MERS 中吸取了正確的教訓？盡管民粹主義領導人在 COVID-19 大流行麵前表現不佳，但尼爾·弗格森認為，更深層次的病態在起作用——這些病態在我們對早期災難的反應中已經顯現出來。
在近二十年前出版的《巨人》、《大退化》和《廣場與塔》等書中，弗格森研究了現代美國的弱點，從帝國的傲慢到官僚主義的硬化和網絡碎片化。
《毀滅戰士》借鑒了經濟學、曆史動力學和網絡科學等多個學科，不僅提供了災難的曆史，還提供了災難的一般理論，展示了為什麽我們日益官僚化和複雜的係統在處理災難時變得越來越糟糕。
如果我們想更好地應對下一次危機，避免不可逆轉的衰落，那麽末日就是這個國家——實際上是整個西方——迫切需要學習的曆史教訓。
Historian Niall Ferguson: On the New Axis of Evil, China, and Cold War 2.0 (interview excerpts)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4ev_WmryZfY
Asia Observer + Insights
This video presents edited clips from two interview with Sir Niall Ferguson, a Scottish–American historian who is the Milbank Family Senior Fellow at the Hoover Institution and a senior fellow at the Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs at Harvard University.
The first interview— entitled “The 4 Biggest Threats to the West, According to Historian Ferguson” — was conducted in October, 2023 by Barron’s magazine.
The second interview— entitled “The World In 2024 With Niall Ferguson: Crisis, Conflict And The New Axis of Evil” — was conducted in front of a live audience in the UK on June, 2024.
This edited video includes only those clips pertaining to the “new Axis of Evil”: China, Russia, and Iran, as well as those discussing Xi Jinping, Taiwan, Cold War 2.0, the future of the CCP, and the wisdom of detente with China.
The World in 2024 with Niall Ferguson: Crisis, Conflict and Consequences
How can the West deal with the geopolitical and ideological threats posed by what Ferguson calls the axis of ill will – Russia, China and Iran?
'The point of studying the past is to understand our present predicament' – Niall Ferguson
There are few big thinkers better placed to explain global events than historian Niall Ferguson. He has not just a profound understanding of past crises, but also an exceptional ability to map out the longer term impact that present crises will have on world affairs.
In April 2024 Ferguson joined us on the Intelligence Squared stage to discuss the predicaments we are currently facing. How can the West deal with the geopolitical and ideological threats posed by what Ferguson calls the axis of ill will – Russia, China and Iran? With localised wars in Ukraine and the Middle East and the threat of a crisis over Taiwan, are we sleepwalking towards a Third World War? And what are the likely consequences of the ongoing conflicts for the world economy?
Ferguson explored these pressing questions and shares his insights into the fast-changing global landscape.
Niall Ferguson
One of the UK's most renowned historians and his latest book is Doom: The Politics of Catastrophe
Ritula Shah Journalist and presenter on Classic FM
Doom: The Politics of Catastrophe
https://www.amazon.ca/Doom-Politics-Catastrophe-Niall-Ferguson/dp/0593297393/ref=
by Niall Ferguson (Author) July 5 2022
"All disasters are in some sense man-made."
Setting the annus horribilis of 2020 in historical perspective, Niall Ferguson explains why we are getting worse, not better, at handling disasters.
Disasters are inherently hard to predict. Pandemics, like earthquakes, wildfires, financial crises. and wars, are not normally distributed; there is no cycle of history to help us anticipate the next catastrophe. But when disaster strikes, we ought to be better prepared than the Romans were when Vesuvius erupted, or medieval Italians when the Black Death struck. We have science on our side, after all.
Yet in 2020 the responses of many developed countries, including the United States, to a new virus from China were badly bungled. Why? Why did only a few Asian countries learn the right lessons from SARS and MERS? While populist leaders certainly performed poorly in the face of the COVID-19 pandemic, Niall Ferguson argues that more profound pathologies were at work--pathologies already visible in our responses to earlier disasters.
In books going back nearly twenty years, including Colossus, The Great Degeneration, and The Square and the Tower, Ferguson has studied the foibles of modern America, from imperial hubris to bureaucratic sclerosis and online fragmentation.
Drawing from multiple disciplines, including economics, cliodynamics, and network science, Doom offers not just a history but a general theory of disasters, showing why our ever more bureaucratic and complex systems are getting worse at handling them.
Doom is the lesson of history that this country--indeed the West as a whole--urgently needs to learn, if we want to handle the next crisis better, and to avoid the ultimate doom of irreversible decline.
To buy Niall Ferguson's books (and e-book and audio versions), click the below links. NIALL FERGUSON BOOKS:
"Doom: The Politics of Catastrophe” by Niall Ferguson: https://amzn.to/3AkHqO0
“Kissinger: 1923-1968: The Idealist” by Niall Ferguson: https://amzn.to/4ckFhz9
“The Ascent of Money: A Financial History of the World” by Niall Ferguson: https://amzn.to/3YGoUK3
"Empire: The Rise and Demise of the British World Order and the Lessons for Global Power” by Niall Ferguson: https://amzn.to/3SJcL3e
“The War of the World: Twentieth-Century Conflict and the Descent of the West by Niall Ferguson: https://amzn.to/4ckFD8X
“Civilization: The West and the Rest” by Niall Ferguson: https://amzn.to/3WK2JA7
“Empire: How Britain Made the Modern World”. by Niall Ferguson: https://amzn.to/4cm6Ckx
