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馬克龍呼籲擴大歐洲主權可能會適得其反
https://ip-quarterly.com/en/macrons-call-greater-european-sovereignty-could-backfire
作者：Jacob Ross ross@dgap.org 2024 年 5 月 27 日
簡介 ross@dgap.org
Jacob Ross 是 DGAP 的研究員，主要研究法國和法德關係。他最初於 2021 年 6 月以研究助理的身份加入該計劃。此前，他曾在布魯塞爾的北約議會擔任研究助理。在法國外交部工作期間以及擔任法國國民議會歐洲事務委員會主席 Sabine Thillaye 的議會助理期間，他已經積累了法德背景的經驗。
Ross 的大部分學術培訓也是在法國獲得的：首先是在裏爾政治學院 (IEP) 的法德雙學位課程中學習，後來在巴黎的 IEP 和斯特拉斯堡的國家行政學院 (Ena) 學習。他還在博洛尼亞約翰霍普金斯大學高級國際研究學院 (SAIS) 學習，並獲得國際關係和經濟學碩士學位。
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馬克龍呼籲擴大歐洲主權可能會適得其反
https://ip-quarterly.com/en/macrons-call-greater-european-sovereignty-could-backfire
多虧了法國總統埃馬紐埃爾·馬克龍，歐洲自 2017 年以來一直在談論主權。然而，在巴黎，這一術語卻被日益壯大的民族主義運動所采用。
2024 年 5 月 26 日，法國總統埃馬紐埃爾·馬克龍在德國柏林向新聞界發表講話時做手勢。
2024 年春季刊：歐洲的投票，歐洲的未來
埃馬紐埃爾·馬克龍將於 5 月 28 日在明斯特獲得威斯特伐利亞國際和平獎。這是繼 2018 年獲得亞琛國際查理曼獎之後，這位法國總統在德國獲得的第二個獎項。馬克龍在德國相當受歡迎，因為他幾乎遍布歐盟各地。然而，他在法國國內不太受歡迎，這位法國曆史上最年輕、最親歐的總統的願景已被日常政治醜聞和危機所削弱；從貝納拉事件（馬克龍的一名保鏢因毆打抗議者而被起訴），到 2018 年的黃背心抗議，再到郊區的騷亂，導致他取消了 2023 年 7 月對德國的國事訪問。
這次訪問現在終於實現了，並將獲得和平獎。自 1998 年以來，該獎項一直頒發給為歐洲一體化做出貢獻的人。第一位獲獎者是捷克人權活動家、後來的總統瓦茨拉夫·哈維爾。無論人們如何看待他的政治記錄，馬克龍都值得獲得該獎項。近年來，他對歐洲辯論的影響是其他主要政治家所無法比擬的。前德國總理安格拉·默克爾可能是 2021 年之前歐洲最重要的聲音。但她是一位管理者，而不是一位有遠見的人。
相比之下，馬克龍捍衛大創意，並不回避衝突。自 2017 年以來，他的執著一直是歐洲主權。 4 月底，馬克龍在巴黎索邦大學發表歐洲演講時，將這一理念在辯論中的無處不在歸功於自己，他認為這是一個巨大的成功。
克服威斯特伐利亞體係
主權主義者馬克龍現在來到明斯特，這一事實在很多層麵上都具有象征意義。1648 年，結束了三十年戰爭的三項和平條約之一就是在這裏簽署的，這對德國人來說是“原始創傷”（德國政治學家赫爾弗裏德·明克勒稱之為）。簽署人之一是法國太陽王路易十四，當時他隻有 10 歲。這些條約為新的國際體係奠定了基礎，從那時起，該體係越來越多地以國家權力壟斷和主權國家相互承認為基礎。尤其是在盎格魯-撒克遜法律和政治學中，“威斯特伐利亞體係”這個近 400 年前在明斯特建立的術語至今仍在使用。
馬克龍現在在同一地方受到表彰，以表彰他為克服威斯特伐利亞體係所做的努力。和平獎評審團寫道，自 2017 年以來，他一直致力於“深化歐洲合作”，評審團成員包括德國總統弗蘭克-瓦爾特·施泰因邁爾、基督教民主聯盟 (CDU) 黨主席弗裏德裏希·梅爾茨和前歐盟委員會主席讓-克洛德·容克。他們補充說，法國總統為法德關係帶來了新的動力，盡管“嚴重動蕩”，但仍與俄羅斯領導層保持對話。值得注意的是，這一理由可以追溯到 2023 年春天。從那時起，馬克龍對俄羅斯總統弗拉基米爾·普京的態度明顯強硬，普京拒絕承認烏克蘭在兩年多的戰爭、死亡和破壞之後的主權。
馬克龍也不是聯邦主義者
毫無疑問，馬克龍是歐盟的堅定支持者。2017 年，他用歐洲國歌《歡樂頌》慶祝自己的選舉勝利。在 6 月歐盟選舉的背景下，他現在正在為“漢密爾頓時刻”和共同債務而奔走。這是美國第一任財政部長亞曆山大·漢密爾頓在 18 世紀末為實現美國聯邦化邁出的決定性一步而取得的成就。歐盟聯邦主義的支持者認為，共同債務和投資是除主權防禦能力之外最重要的先決條件。
自 2017 年以來，馬克龍對兩者的支持引發了人們的疑問：他是否是聯邦主義者。這個問題引出了另一位法國和平獎獲得者，瓦萊麗·吉斯卡爾·德斯坦，他是馬克龍在愛麗舍宮的前任之一。吉斯卡爾·德斯坦於 2006 年因擔任歐盟改革大會主席而獲此殊榮，該大會起草了歐盟憲法文本。盡管該文本在 2005 年的公投中被法國和荷蘭否決，但其中大部分內容被納入歐盟的《裏斯本條約》。自那以後，無視公投結果的決定
歐盟的民主赤字已經成為歐盟民主缺失的象征。在法國，它導致了對聯邦主義理念幾乎完全缺乏支持。即使是一再強調國家主權重要性的馬克龍也不是歐盟聯邦主義者。
主權是死胡同
然而，這正日益成為一個問題。這位法國總統用他的歐洲主權願景將自己帶入了死胡同：他必須完成可信地加強歐盟主權的壯舉，而在此過程中又不能削弱法國的主權——這是一項幾乎不可能完成的任務。
可以肯定的是，馬克龍憑借一些歐洲政策上的成功在法國獲得了支持。德國總理同意在 2020 年作為下一代歐盟計劃的一部分共同承擔債務，這一事實被各方視為成功。聽到當時的財政部長、現任德國總理奧拉夫·肖爾茨談到“漢密爾頓時刻”，人們為巴黎的未來帶來了希望。然而，到目前為止，德國政府似乎不會同意重複這一協議，更不用說永久性協議了。
因此，盡管歐盟主權問題進展甚微，但其他人卻劫持了這一術語。法國極右翼政黨國民聯盟的歐洲議程充斥著對主權的承諾。然而，該黨 28 歲的領先候選人喬丹·巴德拉 (Jordan Bardella) 並沒有在歐洲層麵上發展這一議程，而是希望從歐盟手中奪回主權。巴德拉是 6 月初舉行的歐洲議會選舉的候選人。目前的民意調查顯示，巴德拉的得票率幾乎是馬克龍複興黨候選人的兩倍，他正在為重返“國家歐洲”而戰。在這樣做的過程中，他有意識地遵循了法國歐洲政策的悠久傳統，這一傳統也得到了第五共和國第一任總統戴高樂在 1950 年代的捍衛。
魔法師的學徒馬克龍
馬克龍打破了這一傳統，但他從未在法國公開表示過這一點。自 2017 年以來，主權概念被引入到歐盟未來的辯論中，歐盟從中受益匪淺。歐盟委員會也越來越多地提到需要加強歐盟主權——無論是在抗擊病毒的衛生政策、反對美國和中國對其國內產業補貼的貿易政策，還是在向烏克蘭運送武器的外交和安全政策方麵。2016 年，當英國選民投票支持英國脫歐並反對歐盟時，一個曆史上反對歐盟進一步一體化的反對者被排除在外。在馬克龍的領導下，法國再次成為歐盟進一步一體化的推動力。
然而，法國方向的轉變是否會在馬克龍之後持續下去仍是值得懷疑的。在 4 月發表關於歐洲的主旨演講後不久，法國報紙《世界報》發表了一項關於法國人與主權概念關係的調查。受訪者首先想到的與“主權”相關的術語是“民族主義”（22%）、“獨立”（20%）和“權力”（同樣為 20%）。這些術語與歐盟幾乎沒有任何關係；相反，它們指的是法蘭西共和國和強大的民族國家，這對許多法國人來說仍然至關重要。此外，54% 的受訪者同意“歐洲”和“主權”這兩個術語的結合是“矛盾的”這一說法。在文章的標題中，《世界報》談到了馬克龍的思想與法國選民之間存在“重大誤解”。
因此，憑借其關於深化歐盟的想法，這位和平獎獲得者可能最終將一個他無法再控製的術語引入了歐洲辯論中。政治學家赫弗裏德·明克勒（Herfried Münkler）於 2018 年出版了影響深遠的三十年戰爭史，他早在 2021 年就警告說，隻有在沒有人提出主權問題的情況下，歐盟才能發揮作用。馬克龍已經這樣做了，現在他有可能成為歐洲政治的巫師學徒。
雅各布·羅斯（Jacob Ross）是德國外交關係委員會（DGAP）的法國和法德關係研究員。
ross@dgap.org
Thanks to French President Emmanuel Macron, Europe has been talking about sovereignty since 2017. However, in Paris of all places, the term has been adopted by the growing nationalist movement.
Emmanuel Macron will receive the International Peace of Westphalia Prize in Münster on May 28. It is the second prize awarded to the French president in Germany after he received the International Charlemagne Prize of Aachen in 2018. Macron is fairly popular in Germany, as he is almost everywhere in the European Union. He is, however, less popular at home in France, where the visions of the youngest and most pro-European president in French history have been worn down by the scandals and crises of everyday politics; from the Benalla affair, which saw the prosecution of one of Macron’s bodyguards for assaulting a protestor, and the yellow vest protests in 2018 to the unrest in the suburbs that led to the cancellation of his state visit to Germany in July 2023.
That visit is now finally happening and will be crowned with the awarding of the Peace Prize. It has been bestowed for services to European integration since 1998. The first winner was the Czech human rights activist and later president, Vaclav Havel. Macron deserves the award, regardless of what one might think of his political record. He has shaped European debates in recent years like no other leading politician. Former German Chancellor Angela Merkel may have been the most important voice in Europe until 2021. But she was an administrator, not a visionary.
In contrast, Macron defends big ideas and does not shy away from conflict. Since 2017, his obsession has been European sovereignty. In his Europe speech at the Sorbonne University in Paris at the end of April, he credited himself with the omnipresence of that concept in the debates, which he considered to be a great success.
Overcoming the Westphalian System
The fact that the sovereignist Macron is now coming to Münster is symbolic on many levels. In 1648, one of the three peace treaties that ended the Thirty Years’ War, a “primal trauma” (as German political scientist Herfried Münkler put it) for the Germans, was signed there. One of the signatories was Louis XIV, the French Sun King, who was only 10 years old at the time. The treaties created the foundation of a new international system, which from then on was increasingly organized on the basis of the state monopoly on power and the mutual recognition of sovereign states. In Anglo-Saxon legal and political science in particular, the term “Westphalian system,” which was established in Münster almost 400 years ago, is still used today.
Macron is now being honored in the same place for his efforts to overcome that very Westphalian system. Since 2017, he has worked to “deepen European cooperation,” wrote the Peace Prize jury, whose members include German President Frank-Walter Steinmeier, Christian Democratic Union (CDU) party chairman Friedrich Merz, and former European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker. The French president, they added, had brought new impetus to Franco-German relations and maintained dialogue with the Russian leadership despite “serious upheavals.” This justification dates back to spring 2023, it should be noted. Since then, Macron has significantly toughened his tone toward Russian President Vladimir Putin who refuses to recognize Ukrainian sovereignty after more than two years of war, death, and destruction.
Macron Is No Federalist Either
Macron is without doubt a staunch supporter of the EU. In 2017, he celebrated his election victory with the Ode to Joy, the European anthem. In the context of the EU elections in June, he is now campaigning for a “Hamiltonian moment” and common debt. This is what Alexander Hamilton, the first US Secretary of the Treasury, achieved in the late 18th century in a decisive step toward the federalization of the United States of America. The supporters of EU federalism consider joint debt and investment to be the most important prerequisite alongside a sovereign defense capability.
Since 2017, Macron’s support for both has begged the question whether he is a federalist. This question leads to another French winner of the Peace Prize, Valérie Giscard d’Estaing, one of Macron's predecessors in the Élysée Palace. Giscard d’Estaing was honored in 2006 for his work as president of the EU reform convention, which drew up a constitutional text for the European Union. Even though the text was rejected by the French and Dutch in the 2005 referendums, large parts of it were incorporated into the EU’s Lisbon Treaty. Since then, the decision to ignore the outcomes of the referendums has become a symbol of the EU's democratic deficit. In France, it has contributed to the almost complete absence of support for the federalist idea. Even Macron, who has repeatedly emphasized the importance of national sovereignty, is not an EU federalist.
Sovereignty as a Dead End
However, this is increasingly becoming a problem. The French president has maneuvered himself into a dead end with his vision of European sovereignty: he must accomplish the feat of credibly strengthening EU sovereignty without weakening France’s sovereignty in the process—an almost impossible task.
To be sure, Macron has been able to score points in France with some European policy successes. The fact that the German chancellor agreed to joint debt in 2020 as part of the Next Generation EU program was seen as a success by all parties. And hearing the then finance minister and current German chancellor, Olaf Scholz, speak of a “Hamiltonian moment” raised hopes for the future in Paris. So far, however, it does not appear that the German government will agree to a repeat, let alone a permanent instrument.
So, while little progress is being made on EU sovereignty, others have hijacked the term. The European agenda of the French far-right party Rassemblement National is peppered with commitments to sovereignty. However, instead of developing it at a European level, Jordan Bardella, the party's 28-year-old leading candidate in the European Parliament elections, which take place in early June, wants to take sovereignty back from the EU. Bardella, who current polls show could win almost twice as many votes as the candidate from Macron's Renaissance party, is fighting for a return to a “Europe of nations.” In doing so, he is consciously following a long tradition of French European policy that was also defended by the first president of the Fifth Republic, Charles de Gaulle, in the 1950s.
Macron the Sorcerer’s Apprentice
Macron has broken with this tradition, but he has never openly said so in France. Since 2017, the EU has benefited from the concept of sovereignty being introduced into the debate on its future. The European Commission, too, is increasingly referring to the need for stronger EU sovereignty—be it in health policy to combat a virus, in trade policy against American and Chinese subsidies for their domestic industries, or in foreign and security policy with regard to weapons deliveries to Ukraine, for example. In 2016, when British voters voted for Brexit and against the EU, a historic opponent of greater EU integration was taken out of the equation. Under Macron, France became a driving force for greater integration once again.
However, it is questionable whether the French change of direction will outlast Macron. Shortly after his keynote speech on Europe in April, the French newspaper Le Monde published a survey on the relationship between the French and the concept of sovereignty. The first terms that respondents associated with “sovereignty” were “nationalism” (22 percent), “independence” (20 percent), and “power” (also 20 percent). These terms bear virtually no relation to the EU; on the contrary, they refer to the French Republic and a strong nation state, which remains of paramount importance to many French people. Furthermore, 54 percent of respondents agreed with the statement that a combination of the two terms “European” and “sovereignty” would be “contradictory.” In the headline of the article, Le Monde spoke of a “major misunderstanding” between Macron's ideas and the French electorate.
Thus, with his ideas on deepening the European Union, the winner of the Peace Prize may have ended up introducing a term into the European debate that he can no longer control. The political scientist Herfried Münkler, whose seminal history of the Thirty Years’ War was published in 2018, warned back in 2021 that the EU would work only so long as no one raised the question of sovereignty. Macron has done so, and now risks becoming the sorcerer’s apprentice of European politics.
Jacob Ross is research fellow for France and Franco-German relations at the German Council on Foreign Relations (DGAP).
