陸克文談中國如何看待世界

我們正在見證深刻的變化

https://asiasociety.org/switzerland/we-are-witnessing-profound-change

陸克文談了解中國如何看待世界

蘇黎世，2022 年 6 月 2 日 - 2022 年 6 月 2 日星期四，瑞士亞洲協會和瑞士信貸主辦了 Hon.亞洲協會主席、澳大利亞前總理陸克文在蘇黎世聖彼得論壇與瑞士亞洲協會執行董事尼科·盧赫辛格就中國世界觀進行對話。

我們的要點

習近平的十個同心圓世界觀。了解中國如何看待世界不僅僅是一種無聊的學術思考。我們腳下正在發生深刻的變化。習近平改變了中國，打破了其前任不斷發展的連續性道路。他將中國的政治和經濟轉向左翼，將民族主義和外交政策轉向右翼。了解習近平的世界觀並能夠對其做出回應至關重要。他的十大優先事項是：

不惜一切代價讓黨繼續掌權，並讓他自己擔任黨的領導人。確保國家統一，就像在新疆、西藏、香港所做的那樣，在台灣也將如此。

發展經濟。以環境可持續的方式做到這一點。
將軍隊現代化建設成為一支能打仗、能打勝仗的世界級軍隊。
至少與 14 個鄰國保持良性關係，但最好讓它們順從。
通過確保太平洋地區的海上影響力並破壞美國在亞洲的聯盟來擊退美國。
將歐亞大陸轉變為越來越依賴中國的經濟機遇區。
成為其他發展中國家不可或缺的合作夥伴。
改變國際體係的性質，使其更加符合中國的世界觀。

習近平將馬克思列寧主義重新引入中國經濟。習近平深刻改變了中國的經濟增長模式，令人驚訝。為什麽要改變四十年來實現兩位數增長的模式？這種模式增加了私營部門的機會，減少了國家計劃的作用，並擴大了與世界其他地區的經濟一體化。現在，預期增長僅為低個位數。

造成這種變化的原因是習近平和他堅定的馬克思列寧主義政治。以前的模式創造了一大群新的精英——像馬雲這樣的人。習近平認為這些人最終是對共產黨統治的挑戰，因此他通過強製成功的私營企業和實力較弱的國有企業合並等方式來控製他們。

中國希望成為我們所有人不可或缺的一部分。北京的宏偉戰略是確保我們的經濟、企業和個人福祉取決於進入中國市場。截至2017年，為實現這一目標已經製定了相當有效的戰略，其中包括“一帶一路”倡議以及將中東歐國家與中國聯係起來的“16+1”合作。這些發展都使中國成為貿易和資本市場上日益不可或缺的力量。

事情之所以出錯，是因為典型的過度擴張，這是習近平的核心失敗。他采取強製經濟外交和直接戰狼外交作為讓各國遵守中國意願的工具，走得太遠、太快、太早。這並沒有提升中國的利益。

如果你不是超級大國，有效的中國戰略的五個部分。這些標準是管理與中國複雜關係的好方法：

永遠不要在 1948 年《世界人權宣言》中定義的人權問題上退縮，中國是該宣言的簽署國。在國際法中確立您對人權的立場。

如果你現在是美國的盟友，就永遠不要退出。

酌情最大限度地擴大與中國的經濟接觸。

在全球治理體係內開展工作。

如果你挑釁中國，而且你不是超級大國，一定不要單獨行動。

有關這些標準如何在實踐中發揮作用的例子，請看日本。它通過自己強有力的原則來管理與中國的關係。兩國之間的經濟關係仍然牢固，盡管日本沒有在其人權原則或與美國的聯盟方麵退縮，並且不斷與其他國家建立夥伴關係（最近是在四方會談中）以有效應對中國。

如果中國稱你很特別，請不要感到太受寵若驚。瑞士可能認為它與中國有著特殊的關係，但北京對除美國以外的所有國家都這麽說。

中國非常尊重瑞士這個極其成功的國家。但簡單的事實是：當中國想到歐洲時，就會想到德國。德國對於如何與中國接觸的看法在北京受到密切關注。

烏克蘭戰爭並沒有改變台灣問題。俄羅斯在烏克蘭的表現平淡無奇，盡管我們必須暫停判斷，直到我們知道頓巴斯會發生什麽，但這並不意味著

根本改變中國與台灣統一的時間表。

習近平希望這一切發生在 2020 年代末、2030 年代初。在那之前，中國正在通過建設一支強大、具有決定性的軍事力量和一個更具主導性、更有彈性的經濟來做好準備。如果有的話，中國會告訴俄羅斯，在入侵烏克蘭之前應該做好更好的準備。中國現在正在做的就是更好地做好準備。

<<<<<<<<<>>>>>>>>>>>

西方和中國都必須回答的一個基本問題

https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/comment-kevin-rudd-interview-understanding-how-china-sees-gao/?

高澤明 

這是當前和下個世紀西方和中國麵臨的最根本的文化問題：

個人人權和國家認同在多大程度上是兼容的，或者是相互矛盾的？這個問題的答案將決定西方和中國的命運。

直到 20 世紀 50 年代，個人人權與國家認同之間存在著強大而積極的共存能量（或許甚至是協同作用）。 20世紀50年代到1990年代是一個過渡時期。從那時起，社會變得越來越分裂。日益增長的個人權利訴求與國家認同變得矛盾。這種矛盾首先不在於道德上的正確或優越，而在於現實中的實踐兼容性。道德正當性是一個單獨的問題，因為兩者都可以在道德上正當或不正當。

這是美國人不承認、也不願意承認的事情，因為沒有明確、容易的答案。

驕傲蒙蔽了雙眼。美國和所有西方國家一樣，已經忘記了自己的根源，甚至羞於承認以下事實：

人權和民族認同在美國事實上在一段時間內是和諧的，是因為基督教——基督教的團結和基督教的寬容，因為兩者都是必要的——而不是因為民主的政治發明，民主隻是一種成果。是樹的一部分，而不是樹本身，甚至不是樹枝本身。

這是基督教的獨特特征，因為沒有其他文化能夠將民族認同和個人人權結合到可比的程度。

進入2020年代，西方對真正基督教的拒絕幾乎已經完成。對人權的追求很大程度上失去了精神基礎。如果沒有精神真理作為基礎，對人類自由的追求就變成了一種弄巧成拙的負擔，而不是社會的賦能力量。

由於精神和文化狀況的惡化，西方現在開始反對中國模式。

中國始終將國家認同置於個人人權之上。澳大利亞前總理陸克文盡管對中國非常了解，但他也是對中國近期國際政策轉向以犧牲人權為代價強調國家主權感到困惑的西方人之一。

2022年6月2日——陸克文先生在題為“理解中國如何看待世界”的采訪中探討了中國國家主席習近平世界觀的意識形態基礎以及各國如何製定有效的對華政策。對話內容發布在 YouTube 上。這次采訪是陸克文的最佳狀態。和往常一樣，他對中國的看法比大多數其他評論員更有洞察力。

但他仍然錯過了遠遠超出政治或地緣政治範圍的更根本的文化和價值觀問題。

他似乎也對習近平的世界觀感到驚訝。為何感到驚訝？中國現在所做的事情，既符合中華文化，也符合中國特色共產主義信條。中國之前在國際舞台上沒有那麽自信的唯一原因是它之前沒有足夠的信心這樣做。

而且，中國將國家認同置於個人人權之上的做法日益不僅成為國內問題，而且成為全球問題，因為民族主義在更大範圍內總是以犧牲他人利益為代價而發展。這不一定是中國的主觀意圖，但卻是客觀結果，因為價值體係總是會產生後果——無論是積極的還是消極的，都取決於價值的性質，無論是有意還是無意。

對於中國以及關於中國的大問題與上述相同：如果沒有個人人權，中國能否發展成為一個強大的國家？

這不僅是一個哲學問題，也是一個經濟問題和政治問題。哲學家甚至可能不想承認這個問題的合法性。這種哲學反駁道：如果沒有人權，即使有可能，擁有一個強大的國家又有什麽意義呢？

但這不僅僅是一個哲學家的問題。不管你喜歡與否，這就是中國正在努力做的事情，並將繼續努力做的事情。如果西方總是把個人人權作為獨立的原則，是說服不了中國的。

但如果沒有個人人權，中國能發展成為一個強大的國家嗎？

不要妄下結論。不要假設太多，尤其不要出於任何膚淺的情緒。至少在中國看來，國家實力和個人福祉是兩個不同的東西，不一定要共存。

但一個壞的專製國家怎麽可能強大呢？好吧，這取決於你如何定義“強”。曆史上，壞國家搞破壞的現象屢見不鮮。

目的是成為一個強大的國家，至少在一段時間內，統治和摧毀其他更加文明和道德的國家。中國本身就不止一次成為這一進程的受害者。還記得成吉思汗的蒙古帝國對中國的征服嗎？

盡管如此，價值仍然很重要。一個熱愛自由的人民應該總是選擇民主和法治而不是威權主義，也應該選擇市場經濟而不是民族主義經濟和寡頭經濟等其他模式，不是因為認為前者更有效率，更重要的是因為他們支持更好的價值觀。

但每一個價值信念都會受到考驗，並需要以實際實力來衡量。僅僅主張個人人權並不是力量。力量至少需要勤奮和對自然法則的尊重，並且可以延伸到其他品格，例如正直、犧牲的愛和目的性。

現在判斷中國的表現可能還為時過早。但很明顯，西方的表現並不好。救贖的問題將再次落在西方文明的頭上。這需要一種謙卑和悔改的覺醒，因為罪總是軟弱的根源。

罪的特征往往是自我中心、自我放縱、無視自然法則和現實、不尊重神聖的命令，所有這些都會導致軟弱。但如果西方對罪惡的本質變得越來越無知，不僅接受罪惡，甚至美化罪惡的表現，那麽西方就不可能有一個強大的國家。美國也不例外。

這並不是說中國文化更道德或更罪惡，但如果上帝可以使用不敬虔的國王尼布甲尼撒來毀滅以色列這個離他更近的國家，那麽他今天也可以在類似的寓言背景下再次這樣做。

已發表 •

凱文·路德處於最佳狀態。比大多數其他中國評論員更有洞察力。但這仍然沒有指出西方和中國在當前和下個世紀麵臨的最根本問題：
個人人權和國家認同在多大程度上是兼容的，或者是相互矛盾的？
這個問題的答案將決定西方和中國的命運。

A fundamental question both the West and China must answer

https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/comment-kevin-rudd-interview-understanding-how-china-sees-gao/?

 ZeMing M. Gao

This is the most fundamental cultural question facing the West and China at present and in the next century:

To what extent individual human rights and national identity are compatible, or else contradictory, to each other?

The answer to this question will determine the fate of the West and that of China.

Up until the 1950s, strong and positive coexistive energy (perhaps even synergy) between individual human rights and national identity existed in America. The 1950s to 1990s was a transition period. Since then, the society has become more and more fractured. The ever-increasing demand for individual rights has become contradictory to national identity. This contradiction is firstly not about what is morally right or superior, but about practical compatibility in reality. The moral justification is a separate matter, as both can be morally justified or not.

This is something that Americans do not admit, and are unwilling to admit, because there is no clear and easy answer.

Pride blinds. America, like all the Western nations, has forgotten its roots and become even too embarrassed to acknowledge the following fact:

The reason why human rights and national identity were in fact harmonious in America for some time was because of Christianity – both the Christian unity and the Christian forbearance, as both are necessary – not because of the political invention of democracy, which is only a fruit of the tree, not the tree, nor even a branch, itself.

It is a unique character of Christianity, for no other culture has been able to combine the national identity and individual human rights to a comparable degree.

Entering the 2020s, the rejection of true Christianity by the West is nearly complete. The pursuit of human rights has largely lost its spiritual basis. Without the spiritual truth as its foundation, the pursuit of human freedom has become a self-defeating burden rather than an enabling power to society.

With all these deteriorated spiritual and cultural conditions, the West is now pitched against the China model.

China always puts national identity ahead of individual human rights. Kevin Rudd, the former Prime Minister of Australia, despite being superbly knowledgeable about China, is one of the Westerners confused about the recent shift of China’s international policy toward emphasizing state sovereignty at the expense of human rights.

On June 2, 2022 — Mr. Rudd in an interview titled ‘Understanding How China Sees the World’ examined the ideological underpinnings of China President Xi Jinping’s worldview and how countries can create effective China policies. The conversation is posted on YouTube. The interview was Kevin Rudd at his best. As usual, he was far more insightful than most other commentators on China.

But he still missed the more fundamental culture and value question that goes way beyond politics or geopolitics.

He also seemed surprised by Xi Jinping’s worldview. Why surprised? What China does now is consistent with both Chinese culture and its communism doctrine with Chinese characteristics. The only reason China was not nearly as assertive in the international arena before was because it didn’t feel confident enough to do that previously.

And increasingly, China's putting national identity ahead of individual human rights is becoming not merely a domestic matter but a global one because nationalism, at a larger scale, always develops at the expense of others. Such is unnecessarily a subjective intent by China, but nevertheless an objective result, because a value system always has consequences – either positive or negative, all according to the nature of the value, whether intended or not.

The big question for China, and about China, is the same above: can China develop a strong nation without individual human rights?

It is not only a philosophical question but also an economic, as well as political one. The philosopher may not even want to acknowledge the legitimacy of this question. The philosophy retorts: without human rights, what’s the point of having a strong nation, even if it is possible?

But this is far more than a philosopher’s question. Whether you like it or not, that’s what China tries to do and will continue to try to do. If the West always starts with individual human rights as a standalone principle, it will not persuade China.

But can China develop a strong nation without individual human rights?

Resist jumping to axiomatic conclusions. Assume not too much, especially not from any superficial sentiment. At least in China’s view, national strength and individual well-being are two different things and may not have to coexist.

But how can a bad authoritarian country be strong? Well, it depends on how you define ‘strong’. Historically, it has been common for a bad nation to rise to become a strong nation, at least for a period of time, to dominate and devastate other nations that were more civilized and moral. China itself was a victim of that process more than once. Remember the conquering of China by Genghis Khan’s Mongol Empire.

Still, the value matters. A people that love freedom should always prefer democracy and the rule of law to authoritarianism, and also prefer a market economy to other models such as a nationalist economy and oligarchy economy, not because the former is believed to be more efficient, but more importantly because they support better values.

But every value belief will be tested and required to measure up in actual strength. Merely arguing for individual human rights is not strength. Strength requires at least diligence and respect for the laws of nature, and may extend to other characters such as integrity, sacrificial love, and purposefulness.

It may be too early to tell how China is doing. But it is quite clear that the West is not doing well. The question of salvation will again fall upon Western civilization. It will require a wakening that subsists humility and repentance, because sin is always at the root of weakness.

Sin tends to feature self-centeredness, self-indulgence, disregard of natural laws and reality, and disrespect of divine mandates, all leading to weakness. But if the West would become increasingly undiscerning with respect to the nature of sin, not only accepting it but even glorifying its manifestations, there could be no hope of a strong nation in the West. America will be no exception.

This is not to assert that Chinese culture is more moral or less sinful, but if God could use an ungodly king Nebuchadnezzar to devastate Israel, a nation closer to him, He can do it again in an allegorically similar context today.

 ZeMing M. Gao

Company-as-a-Product (CaaP) strategist & builder ? IP architecture & buildCompany-as-a-Product (CaaP) strategist & builder ? IP architecture & build

Published • 

Kevin Rudd at his best. Far more insightful than most other commentators on China. But still, this did not point out the most fundamental question facing the West and China at the present time and the next century:
To what extent individual human rights and national identity are compatible, or else contradictory, to each other?
The answer to this question will determine the fate of the West and that of China.

 

We Are Witnessing Profound Change

 

https://asiasociety.org/switzerland/we-are-witnessing-profound-change

Kevin Rudd on Understanding How China Sees the World

ZURICH, June 2, 2022 - On Thursday, June 2, 2022, Asia Society Switzerland and Credit Suisse hosted the Hon. Kevin Rudd, President of Asia Society and former Prime Minister of Australia, at Forum St. Peter in Zurich for a conversation on China’s worldview with Nico Luchsinger, Executive Director of Asia Society Switzerland.

Our key takeaways

Xi Jinping’s worldview in ten concentric circles. Understanding how China sees the world is not just an idle academic reflection. What is unfolding underneath our feet is profound change. Xi has changed China and broke with the path of evolving continuity of his predecessors. He has taken Chinese politics and economics to the left, and nationalism and foreign policy to the right. It is vital to understand Xi’s worldview, to be able to respond to it. His ten priorities are:

1. Keep the Party in power, and himself as its leader, at all costs.
2. Secure national unity as was done in Xinjiang, Tibet, Hong Kong, and will be done in Taiwan.
3. Grow the economy.
4. Do so in an environmentally sustainable fashion.
5. Modernize the military into a world class force that can fight and win wars.
6. Have at least a benign relationship with the 14 neighboring states, but preferably have them be compliant.
7. Push the U.S. back by securing maritime influence in the Pacific and undermining American alliances in Asia.
8. Convert Eurasia into a zone of economic opportunity that becomes increasingly dependent on China.
9. Become an indispensable partner to the rest of the developing world.
10. Change the nature of the international system, making it more compatible with China’s worldview.

Xi inserted Marxism-Leninism back into China’s economy. It is surprising how Xi Jinping has profoundly changed the economic growth model of China. Why would you change a model that for forty years delivered double-digit growth? A model which increased opportunities for the private sector, decreased the role of state planning and expanded economic integration with the rest of the world. Now, expected growth is in the low single digits.

The reason for the change is Xi Jinping and his strong Marxist-Leninist politics. The previous model created a whole bunch of new elites — people like Jack Ma. Xi sees these guys as ultimately being a challenge to the rule of the Communist Party, so he reigned them in by, for example, forcing mergers between successful private companies and weak state firms.

China wants to become indispensable to us all. Beijing’s grand strategy is to ensure that our economic, corporate, and individual wellbeing depends on access to the Chinese market. Up until 2017, there was a reasonably effective strategy in place to reach that goal, which included the Belt and Road Initiative and the 16+1 grouping tying Central and Eastern European countries to China. These developments were all making China an increasingly indispensable power on trade and capital markets.

Things went wrong because of classic overreach, which is Xi Jinping’s core failure. He has gone too far, too fast, too early, by adopting coercive economic diplomacy and direct wolf warrior diplomacy as tools to get countries to comply to China’s wishes. This has not advanced China’s interest.

The five parts of an effective China strategy if you’re not a superpower. These criteria make for a good way to manage the complex relationship with China:

• Never take a step back on human rights as they’re defined in the Universal Declaration of 1948, to which China is a signatory. Anchor your position on human rights in international law.
• Never step back from being an ally of the U.S. if you are one now.
• Maximize your economic engagement with China as appropriate.
• Work within the global governance system.
• If you pick a fight with China, and you’re not a superpower, be sure to not go at it alone.

For an example of how these criteria work in practice, look at Japan. It has managed its relationship with China through its own robust principles. The economic relationship between the two nations is still strong, even though Japan hasn’t taken steps back on its human rights principles or its alliance with the U.S. and is constantly building partnerships with others—most recently in the Quad—to effectively deal with China.

Don’t feel too flattered if China calls you special. Switzerland may think it has a special relationship with China, but Beijing says that to every country, except the U.S.

China has deep respect for Switzerland as an incredibly successful country. But the simple truth is: when China thinks about Europe, it thinks about Germany. The German view of how to engage China is scrutinized intimately in Beijing.

The war in Ukraine does not change things regarding Taiwan. Russia’s underwhelming performance in Ukraine, although we must suspend judgement until we know what will happen in Donbas, does not change China’s timetable for reunification with Taiwan at all.

Xi Jinping wants this to happen in the late 2020s, early 2030s. Until then, China is preparing itself by building a strong, decisive military force and a more dominant, resilient economy. If anything, China would tell Russia it should’ve better prepared itself before invading Ukraine. Better preparing itself is exactly what China is doing now.

Kevin Rudd in Zurich. Photo: André Hengst

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Kevin Rudd is President and CEO of the Asia Society, and inaugural President of the Asia Society Policy Institute. He served as 26th Prime Minister of Australia (2007 to 2010, 2013) and as Foreign Minister (2010 to 2012). He is Chair of the Board of the International Peace Institute in New York, and Chair of Sanitation and Water for All – a global partnership of government and non-governmental organizations dedicated to the implementation of Sustainable Development Goal 6. He is a Distinguished Fellow at Chatham House and the Paulson Institute, and a Distinguished Statesman with the Center for Strategic and International Studies. He is also a member of the Comprehensive Nuclear Test Ban Treaty Organization’s Group of Eminent Persons.