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薩克斯：誹謗中國經濟的惡行將會失敗，理應失敗
https://www.jeffsachs.org/newspaper-articles/rd6mln7g7taw4pmf4ntw578k6ljja9
https://www.globaltimes.cn/page/202401/1306066.shtml
傑弗裏·D·薩克斯《環球時報》2024 年 1 月 25 日
編者按：盡管麵臨複雜的國際形勢和多重阻力，2023年中國經濟仍增長5.2%，超額完成預期目標。 然而，最近西方媒體出現了新一波對中國經濟非常負麵的報道，試圖削弱投資者對中國未來的信心。 為了反駁西方媒體明顯偏離中國經濟真實狀況的惡意歪曲，《環球時報》邀請世界著名美國經濟學家傑弗裏·薩克斯（Sachs）發表觀點。
環球時報：在全球經濟低迷的背景下，您如何看待2023年中國經濟5.2%的增長，這是後疫情複蘇的元年？
薩克斯：這是一次非常令人尊敬的表現。 美國的增長率約為 2.5%。 還要記住，美國人口每年增長約0.5%，而中國人口增長基本為零，因此以人均計算，中國的增長優勢甚至更大。
環球時報：美國主流媒體和知名經濟學家批評2023年中國經濟表現“疲軟”。 不少頭條稱“中國經濟遇到困難，各項指標不及預期”。 您對此有何看法？
薩克斯：美國政府正在積極嚐試通過設置貿易和技術壁壘來減緩中國經濟增長。 美國通過關稅等正式手段和對美國企業的非正式施壓，對中國輸美產品設置壁壘。 美國還引入了技術和投資壁壘。
美國政府和主流媒體都在宣揚中國經濟陷入困境的觀點。 這有點像回聲室。 一位與政府關係密切的記者寫道，然後其他記者重複同樣誇張的故事。 他們對中國或中國經濟的深層優勢了解不多，包括技術的重大進步、全球出口競爭力以及高儲蓄率和投資率。
美國削弱中國經濟的企圖可能會產生一些輕微的短期後果（主要是中國企業出口增長放緩以及中國投資適度轉向東盟國家），但我認為負麵影響不會很大。 美國政府的惡作劇將會失敗，這是理所應當的。
GT：2023年中國經濟出現許多新亮點。“新三項”——電動汽車（EV）、鋰電池和太陽能電池——出口首次突破1萬億元人民幣（1400億美元）大關。 2023年中國成為最大的電動汽車出口國。您如何看待這些新的增長引擎？
薩克斯：中國是世界上大多數綠色和數字技術的低成本生產國，例如電動汽車、光伏係統和5G設備。 這將使中國在未來十年處於全球強勢地位，因為世界需要進行重大的能源轉型，而中國將成為新型低碳基礎設施、互聯互通和電器的主要提供者。
環球時報：中國經濟工作越來越注重擴大內需。 您如何看待中國龐大的國內市場的優勢，對於充分挖掘中國國內市場的潛力有何建議？
薩克斯：我認為中國仍應努力實現出口導向型增長，但現在更多地麵向新興市場經濟體（金磚國家、非盟、拉丁美洲、西亞、中亞），而不是美國或歐盟。 中國應該成為世界新興經濟體綠色和數字化轉型的主要提供者。 這有利於中國、有利於中國的貿易夥伴、也有利於全球環境保護。 “一帶一路”倡議在這方麵仍然非常重要。 中國應繼續支持“一帶一路”倡議，將其作為全球轉型、全球增長和中國經濟增長的重要倡議。
GT：您認為2024年中國經濟的關鍵驅動因素是什麽？
薩克斯：關鍵因素將是中國成功促進新興/金磚國家經濟體的全球增長，以及中國在人工智能、半導體、零碳能源、電池技術、精準醫療、精準農業、 低碳交通（航運、航空）、高鐵等領域。
GT：您如何評價當前中國的經濟形勢？ 您如何看待2024年中國經濟前景？ 您認為哪些領域提供了最大的機會？
薩克斯：正如我剛才所說，我相信中國的增長將是高質量的增長，主要通過技術升級、數字化應用和綠色轉型。 這將發生在中國內部，也將發生在中國之間
以及亞洲、非洲和拉丁美洲的主要貿易夥伴。 當然，我希望美國停止對華貿易戰，這違反了世貿組織的規定，對美國不利，對中國無益。
GT：世界銀行表示，全球經濟增長預計將連續第三年放緩，從去年的 2.6% 降至 2024 年的 2.4%。 在世界經濟麵臨不確定性的背景下，主要經濟體應如何共同應對挑戰、促進全球增長，而不是將經濟問題政治化？
薩克斯：世界經濟的主要解決方案是停止烏克蘭和中東的戰爭，緩解西方與中國之間的貿易緊張局勢，並合作建設高效的數字、綠色全球經濟。 所有這一切都可以通過外交實現。
美國應立即停止試圖將北約擴大到烏克蘭，從而結束烏克蘭戰爭。 美國應該停止武裝以色列，從而結束中東戰爭。 美國應遵守與中國有關台灣島的協議，以緩解台灣問題的緊張局勢。 在1982年的美中公報中，美國承諾逐步停止對台軍售。 美國應該遵守其協議，從而實現和平關係並緩解緊張局勢。
環球時報：您如何看待中國經濟平穩向好發展的全球意義？
薩克斯：中國的經濟進步對中國人民來說非常積極，對世界也非常有利。 包括中國在內的任何地方的經濟進步對世界來說都是雙贏的命題。 美國錯誤地認為世界經濟是一場“零和”鬥爭，中國的進步對美國不利。 這是一個嚴重錯誤的觀點。
Mischief of slandering China's economy will fail, as it should: Sachs
https://www.jeffsachs.org/newspaper-articles/rd6mln7g7taw4pmf4ntw578k6ljja9
Jeffrey D. Sachs Global Times
Editor's Note: Despite facing a complex international situation and multiple headwinds, China's economy expanded by 5.2 percent in 2023, surpassing the target. However, a new wave of very negative narratives about China's economy has emerged in the Western media lately, attempting to undermine investors' confidence in China's future. To counter Western media's malicious distortions that clearly deviates from the real state of the Chinese economy, the Global Times (GT) invited Jeffrey Sachs (Sachs), a world-renowned American economist, to provide his perspectives.
GT: How do you view the 5.2 percent growth of China's economy in 2023, the first year of the post-COVID recovery amid global gloom?
Sachs: This is a very respectable performance. US growth was about 2.5 percent. Remember too that the US population is growing about 0.5 percent per year, while population growth in China is essentially zero, so China's growth advantage is even greater when expressed in per capita terms.
GT: Mainstream US media and well-known economists criticized the performance of the Chinese economy in 2023 as being "weak." Many headlines claimed that the "Chinese economy encountered trouble and various indicators fell short of expectations." What is your perspective on that?
Sachs: The US government is actively trying to slow the Chinese economy through erecting trade and technology barriers. The US has put up barriers to China's exports to the US through both formal means such as tariffs and informal arm-twisting of US companies. The US has also introduced technology and investment barriers.
The US government and therefore the mainstream media are promoting the view that China's economy is in trouble. This is a bit of an echo chamber. One reporter close to the government writes it, and then other reporters repeat the same exaggerated story. They don't know much about China or about the deep strengths of China's economy, including major advances in technology, global export competitiveness, and high saving and investment rates.
US attempts to weaken the Chinese economy may have some modest short-run consequences (mainly slower export growth by Chinese companies and modest displacements of investments from China into ASEAN countries) but the adverse effects will not be large, in my view. The US government's mischief will fail, as it should.
GT: There were many new bright spots in China's economy in 2023. Exports of the "new three items" - electric vehicles (EVs), lithium batteries and solar cells - for the first time exceeded the 1 trillion yuan ($140 billion) mark. China became the largest EV exporter in 2023. How do you view these new growth engines?
Sachs: China is the world's low-cost producer of most green and digital technologies, such as EVs, photovoltaic systems and 5G equipment. This will put China in a strong global position for the coming decade, since the world needs to make a major energy transition and China will be a key provider of the new low-carbon infrastructure, connectivity and appliances.
GT: China's economic work is increasingly focused on expanding domestic demand. How do you view the advantages of China's large home market, and what suggestions do you have for fully tapping the potential of domestic market in China?
Sachs: I believe that China should still strive for export-led growth, but now more to the emerging market economies (BRICS, African Union, Latin America, Western Asia, Central Asia) than to the US or the EU. China should be the key provider for the green and digital transformation of the world's emerging economies. This will be good for China, for China's trade partners and for global environmental protection. The Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) remains very important in this regard. China should continue to champion the BRI as a very important initiative for global transformation, global growth and China's economic growth.
GT: What do you believe will be the key driving factors for China's economy in 2024?
Sachs: The key factors will be China's successful promotion of global growth in the emerging/BRICS economies, as well as China's continued dynamism in technological advancement - in artificial intelligence, semiconductors, zero-carbon energy, battery technology, precision medicine, precision agriculture, low-carbon transport (shipping and aviation), high-speed rail and other areas.
GT: How do you evaluate the current economic situation of China? How do you view China's economic prospects in 2024? Which areas do you think offer the greatest opportunities?
Sachs: As I've said, I believe that China's growth will be quality-based, mainly through technological upgrading, digital applications and the green transformation. This will happen within China and also between China and its major trading partners in Asia, Africa and Latin America. Of course, I hope that the US stops its trade war with China, which violates the WTO and is bad for the US and unhelpful for China.
GT: Global growth is projected to slow for the third year in a row - from 2.6 percent last year to 2.4 percent in 2024, the World Bank said. In a world battling economic uncertainties, how should major economies jointly tackle challenges and promote global growth rather than politicizing economic issues?
Sachs: The main solutions to the world economy are to stop the wars in Ukraine and the Middle East, reduce trade tensions between the West and China, and cooperate on building an efficient digital, green global economy. All of this is possible through diplomacy.
The US should stop immediately trying to expand NATO to Ukraine, thereby ending the war in Ukraine. The US should stop arming Israel, thereby ending the war in the Middle East. And the US should abide by agreements with China regarding the Taiwan island, so as to reduce the tensions over Taiwan. In the 1982 US-China Communique, the US promised to phase out arms sales to Taiwan. The US should honor its agreements, leading to peaceful relations and a reduction of tension.
GT: How do you view the global significance of the steady and positive development of China's economy?
Sachs: China's economic progress has been extraordinarily positive for the Chinese people and very good for the world. Economic progress anywhere, including in China, is a win-win proposition for the world. The US mistakenly thinks that the world economy is a "zero-sum" struggle, in which China's progress is somehow bad for the US. This is a badly mistaken view.
