Keyu Jin
金克宇是倫敦政治經濟學院經濟學教授。 她是中國金融40人的學術會員，曾與世界銀行、國際貨幣基金組織和中國銀監會合作，並且是奢侈品集團曆峰集團和瑞士信貸銀行的非執行董事會成員。 Keyu Jin
Keyu Jin is a professor of economics at the London School of Economics and Political Science. She is an Academic Member of China Finance 40, has worked with the World Bank, the IMF, and the China Banking Regulatory Commission, and is a non-executive board member of the luxury conglomerate Richemont and the global bank Credit Suisse.
就像人與人之間的關係那樣，國家之間的關係也很容易建立在無意的誤解、錯誤的假設，以及過於簡化的事實基礎上。倫敦政治經濟學院教授、瑞士信貸董事會成員金刻羽即將出版新書《新的中國戰略手冊》(The New China Playbook)，在這本有時具有煽動性、有時令人不安的書中，她試圖重建西方與中國關係的基礎，她認為西方對中國經濟、中國的經濟野心，以及中國如何看待全球競爭的理解存在嚴重缺陷。金刻羽希望通過這種重建來幫助改善中國與其假定的地緣政治對手之間的冷淡關係。金刻羽在北京出生，在哈佛大學獲得了經濟學博士學位，她的父親金立群曾任中國財政部副部長。“我們正處在一個極其危險的世界中，”她說。“如果不做出更大努力來了解彼此的觀點，和平共處恐怕是不可能的。”（金刻羽2022年加入瑞士信貸董事會，之後不久，這家銀行因一係列醜聞和虧損瀕臨崩潰。瑞士信貸已在這次采訪之後被另一家瑞士銀行瑞銀收購。金刻羽通過一名發言人拒絕對瑞士信貸的情況置評。）
Just like relationships between people, relationships between countries can all too easily be built on a foundation of unintentional misunderstandings, faulty assumptions and predigested truths. In her forthcoming, at times provocative and disquieting book, “The New China Playbook,” Keyu Jin, a professor at the London School of Economics and a board member at Credit Suisse, is trying to rework the foundation of what she sees as the West’s deeply flawed understanding of China’s economy, its economic ambitions and its attitude toward global competition. And through that work, Jin wants to help improve the frosty relationship between the country and its presumed geo-political opponents. “We’re in an incredibly dangerous world right now,” says Jin, who was born in Beijing and earned her Ph.D. in economics from Harvard and whose father, Jin Liqun, served as a vice minister of finance for China. “Without more effort made to understand each other’s perspectives, peaceful coexistence may not be possible.” (Jin joined the Credit Suisse board in 2022, not long after the bank was shaken by a series of scandals and losses. After this interview was conducted, the bank was sold to UBS, another Swiss bank. Through a spokes-person, Jin declined to comment on Credit Suisse’s situation.)
What do U.S. policymakers just not get about China’s economy and the Communist Party leadership’s thinking about competition with America? China’s current economic challenge is to overcome its
1 The term for when wages rise in a country but then stall as a result of higher costs and declining competitiveness.
something that the United States might not relate to. It’s not all about displacing the United States as global hegemon, which would come with a huge amount of burdens and responsibilities. And I don’t think China is ready or willing to do that. To see China solely as trying to displace the United States is only going to stoke more fears. The United States can come up with better policies regarding real national-security concerns, but the government is doing things that to us are so un-American, like reducing
3 For example, restrictions on the sale of semiconductor technology to China enacted by the Biden administration.
That doesn’t seem to be the spirit of collaboration. But understanding where China is coming from would be a step forward.
Keyu Jin at a conference in Munich in 2018. Gandalf Hammerbacher/Picture-Alliance
Do you see large-scale Chinese industrial espionage as inhibiting that understanding? There are thorny issues between the two countries, and the more they trade, the more issues there are. But we want to see China as dynamic. It has changed a great deal. China liked to take the shortcuts in the beginning. It wanted to become an innovator, and it wanted to become great. But there was not a complete legal framework or rules and laws in place. China changed so it could join the World Trade Organization. Interestingly enough, these so-called technology transfers, or the misappropriation you mentioned — lots of industry studies show that they don’t work as effectively as they were supposed to. Instead, for example, in the
4 China's electric-vehicle market and infrastructure is far and away the world’s largest.
where everybody started from the same place, China was able to leapfrog. Lots of companies say that even at the risk of technological misappropriation, China is too lucrative a market to pass over. They would rather take the risk.
It seems pretty apparent that President Xi Jinping is moving away from the United States and the European Union and toward other countries with politically similar systems, like Russia or Iran. But those countries are unlikely to be economic partners for China on the level of the U.S. or the E.U. What are the implications of that shift for China’s longer-term economic growth? China has a slightly different world vision from the U.S. and maybe from Europe, which is coexistence of different political systems, different economic systems, a multipolar world — I think that’s one of China’s global agendas. Of course, intereconomically, there is much more trade. China still upholds this view of globalization, but geopolitics is making this increasingly difficult. So I would argue that at the same time it seeks this multipolar balance, it is slightly pushed to become closer to some of these countries that you mentioned.
But what's pushing China toward more closely aligning with Russia if not political affinity? To be very frank, it’s hard to say, “Let’s hold hands with Europe and the United States,” after the increasing tension, the export controls, the view that somehow the United States wants to limit China’s development and advancement in technology innovation. People believe that there was demonization of China early in the pandemic; there was aggressive rhetoric during Donald Trump’s presidency. It’s more difficult after that happens to say, “OK, let’s work on things like Russia and Ukraine.” Russia — and I’m not an expert on these issues — presents some security concerns for China. The Chinese people believe that a substantially weakened Russia might not be in the interest of China, because if there were the sense that the United States needed to seek out an opponent, China would be next. Not an easy answer there.
But to be honest, one of the things that I found most interesting — or perplexing — about your book was what felt like an elision of moral questions about how China operates. For example, you say there’s room for a vibrant debate on Chinese social media. But China is consistently ranked near the bottom when it comes to media freedom. Or you write that the Chinese people are generally willing to trade security for freedom. Were the
5 China has been heavily criticized for detaining more than a million Uyghurs and other Muslim minorities in what its government has referred to as “vocational education and training centers.”
Willing to make that trade? The book also doesn’t mention the human rights questions raised by the hukou system and the
6A classification system that has been used to determine what social services, including education and healthcare, are made available to rural residents. Critics have equated it with apartheid.
I'm trying to understand your perspective on these issues, because to me they seem connected to economics. I appreciate these questions. One reason it’s probably not thoroughly addressed is because my book is about economics and political economy. I wanted to touch upon points where there were surveys and data. These other subjects require more expertise and more thorough research, which I haven’t done. For sure, there’s much more control over media than in the past. I was pointing out in the book, though, that
7 I.e., a way for citizens to monitor their government and vice versa.
There was a lot of criticism about government; there were protests last year over land seizures. These were not hidden. But the Chinese government does exhibit a great deal of paternalism. Officials think that a public narrative that is uncontrolled can lead to instability or more divisiveness. I’m not saying that the people prefer it that way, but when they’re asked about a trade-off between security and freedom, surveys show a vast
8 According to a 2020 World Values Survey, 93 percent of Chinese participants value security over freedom. Only 28 percent of Americans responded similarly.
Then you touched upon the huge issues of the migrant workers, the minorities in China. There are hundreds of millions people who could be in a better position, but things are changing. These are enduring challenges. On the one hand, yes, there’s more control, less liberty. On the other hand, there is an improving situation for people with more dire situations.
Jin (second from right) at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland, 2020. Greg Beadle/World Economic Forum
The treatment of the Uyghurs doesn’t quite fit the framework of an improving situation. David, I understand. This particular subject is something where I have so little information and I don’t know what’s going on and there’s so many different accounts. I prefer not to comment on this and be irresponsible. But it is
9 Tourism travel to the Xinjiang region, home to many of China’s Uyghurs, had previously been subject to restrictions, and Uyghurs were prevented from leaving the region. Foreign visitors also had surveillance apps installed on their cellphones.
I think people should go take a look, then make a judgment on their own. It’s a complex situation. There are improvements, there are deteriorations, and we have to recognize that.
Do you feel inhibited in your ability to be critical of China? I’m an economist at the end of the day, and the way I’m trained, we like to say, “OK, where is the evidence?” That’s how I like to focus my analysis. Where there are policy mistakes, I’d be more than happy to share my views. There are more courageous people and more experts who can do that. What I’m trying to accomplish is using a different lens to focus on economic issues.
You mentioned the trade-offs that people are willing to make within different political systems, which you also write about in the book: “Despite the limits China imposes on free-market forces, the absence of a free press, independent judicial system and the individual right to vote, we see there are other mechanisms in place to respond to the needs of its citizens and to address the threats posed by inequality.” That “despite” is doing a lot of work. It reminds me of that line, “Other than that, how was the play, Mrs. Lincoln?” I was trying to say that those are all things that we believe to be essential for sustained economic growth. I was saying that despite all that, China still performed well. I wasn’t necessarily suggesting that the things you mentioned weren't important. I was more framing it as the puzzle of China's economic growth. I was trying to say that those are all things that we believe to be essential for sustained economic growth. I was saying that despite all that, China still performed well. But I will say that the model that worked for China when it was building factories is not going to be the system that would work for innovation, where you need people to be able to get rich, where you need solid intellectual-property protection, where you have to have clear and transparent policies and rule of law. That worked in the last era. Doesn’t necessarily work in the new era.
Let's turn the lens of your book around: What are the biggest blind spots the Chinese leadership has when it comes to understanding American policies toward the country? I think the Chinese leaders have this notion that the United States is doing everything it can to try to stop China from growing. Or they believe that whatever China does is not going to elicit more trust. So I think this blind spot is that the leadership is convinced that there’s no way out of this. I’m not sure that is the case. And then also, the United States thinks that China wants to displace it.
Doesn't it? No. China thinks that its economy should be the largest in the world, not because it’s rich but because it’s large: 1.4 billion people! But that’s very different from overtaking the United States in terms of innovative power and military power and real economic power. I don’t think anybody believes that is a realistic goal for China. Again, we have very different understandings of how we see each other.
What specific things, besides stopping industrial espionage, could China do to increase trust? Giving American companies, financial institutions, more opportunities to make money, opening up its various sectors more aggressively — that will allow more dialogue, more cooperation. That’s one thing. Second, it’s understandable for the United States to push back on some of the industrial espionage. But China’s best technologies, the ones that are really successful right now, artificial intelligence or
11 China's retail-payment system is largely run through QR codes and digital wallets and is operated by tech companies. Banks are cut out of the process.
— all of that is based on domestic competition. The industrial espionage stems from a lack of appreciation from the start of intellectual property, and the United States, by pushing China to do more intellectual-property protection, is actually good for China. I think it’s on a substantial downward trend, this misappropriation of technologies, because it’s actually not good for China’s own goals.
The next question is more of an epistemological one. The animating idea of your book is that people see the same situation from different perspectives. So when you hear my skepticism about things like Chinese labor policy or media freedom being treated benignly, do you hear it as my being stuck in a particular ideological paradigm? Or maybe that my thinking is itself an example of the misunderstandings that the book is trying to address? I totally understand, because the first time I
12 Jin came to the United States to study at New York City’s Horace Mann School as part of an exchange-student program.
in 1997, my classmates were asking me about human rights in Tibet. In China, meanwhile, we were busy building and developing and reforming. The focal points have been different. That’s not to say that the economic means justify the unfortunate circumstances. But China is a country that has done the most economically for the most number of people in the shortest amount of time. If you look at the new generation, they are open-minded on a whole range of issues, so much more than their parents. They care about animal rights, worker rights, social inequity. That shift gives us hope that China will progress.
Americans' misunderstanding of China's economic growth keeps the two nations in unnecessary conflict, argues Jin, a professor at the London School of Economics, in her thoughtful debut. “Consumers, entrepreneurs, and the state: in China none of them behaves like a conventional economic agent,” she argues, suggesting that China’s economy works through a distinctive interplay between a powerful central state and an ascendant private sector. Digging into the history of China’s recent economic boom, she tells how in 1978 Deng Xiaoping, China’s supreme leader, instituted reforms moving the country away from Soviet-style central planning toward a market economy, inaugurating a system in which the state retained wide-reaching powers that allowed it to bolster the fledgling economy. Jin emphasizes the success of China’s hybrid model, noting that reforms lifted hundreds of millions of citizens out of poverty, but she sometimes comes across as overly sanguine, as when she discusses polls that suggest Chinese citizens overwhelmingly have positive views of their government without noting whether this holds for, say, Uyghur people oppressed by the state. Still, she makes clear that the Chinese economy is far more complex than U.S. discourse lets on, and she offers an astute take on how the Chinese state cooperates with and intervenes in the private market. This elevates the conversation on U.S.-China relations. (May)
Publishers Weekly
"Jin doesn’t ignore China’s faults and failings . . . she tells a nuanced story that deserves attention at a time of extreme tension between China and the United States.” —Peter Coy, The New York Times
“Jin avoids ideology and instead frames basic economic agents in the same manner as any other country. As a result, English-language readers will come away with a more informed and empathetic picture of this still-developing country.” —Asian Review of Books
The New China Playbook offers a different perspective than many Western policymakers do about China. —NPR
"The biggest geo-political change of the 21st century will be the end of exclusive Western political and economic dominance. The rise of China is at the core of this change and Keyu Jin is a brilliant thinker to take us through its implications from the perspective of someone who understands both China and the West. It is this combination of insider and outsider insight which makes The New China Playbook essential reading." —Tony Blair, former Prime Minster of The United Kingdom
"China is running on a new playbook for innovation and technology. As a bicultural economics expert, Professor Keyu Jin understands this playbook, and demystifies it for the global audience. This book is an invaluable lens to understand the modern anatomy of China." —Kai-Fu Lee, Chairman & CEO, Sinovation Ventures and New York Times bestselling author of AI Superpowers
“During the 20 years of my Presidency, through the many meetings with Xi Jinping and other Chinese leaders, I tried to understand China. Now Keyu Jin provides a brilliant guidebook, a must read for everyone in business and politics engaged in the global economy.” –Olafur Ragnar Grimsson, former President of Iceland and Chair of the Artic Circle
"A revelatory exposition of China's juggernaut economy and the rise of its entrepreneurs. Keyu Jin provides the roadmap to understanding the Chinese economy and places it within a global context. This is a must-read for anyone doing business in or with China today.” —William Ding, founder and chairman of NetEase
"The most important book on China in many years, written with stunning eloquence and clarity. Jin does not cover the warts, but insists on a holistic view. Anyone who want to understand China, and how to engage with it economically and politically, will greatly benefit from this deeply original book." —Kenneth Rogoff, Maurits C. Boas Chair of International Economics, Harvard University
“Much has been written about China, but it is rare to read an author such as Keyu Jin, who can so naturally and seamlessly blend two perspectives. If you are interested in a true conversation, this is the book worth reading.” —Charles Li, former Chief Executive of Hong Kong Exchanges and Clearing Limited
“China's economic evolution may well determine the future of the world economy, the global environment and geopolitics. Keyu Jin offers a bold, sound, and profoundly important view of where the Chinese economy is going. Her view needs to be carefully considered by all who will be affected by China, and that means almost everyone." —Lawrence H. Summers, former United States Secretary of the Treasury and President Emeritus of Harvard University
From the Publisher
03/01/2022
A London School of Economics professor and adviser to the China Banking Regulatory Commission, born in China and U.S.-educated Jin offers a far-reaching picture of how China became a world financial power, focusing on the radical break from mostly state-owned enterprises that led to the current entrepreneur-driven economy. She also looks to the future as she presents China as an economic model for the world.
Library Journal
2023-03-03
A respected academic provides a nuanced examination of China’s past, present, and future.
China has always been difficult for many Westerners to understand, but the issue has become increasingly crucial as the country’s global role has grown. Jin, who grew up in China and retains strong connections there, was educated in the U.S. and is now a professor at the London School of Economics. With this background, she is well qualified to play the role of cultural interpreter. She has a special interest in the problems now emerging in China as the society struggles to move from an unremitting focus on economic growth to quality-of-life and equity issues. Jin notes that China’s transition from an impoverished, rural country to a wealthy, urbanized society has been remarkably fast. The private sector has driven the growth, especially in the past two decades, but the government remains firmly in control, with a complex system of incentives, rules, easy credit, and government-owned enterprises. The author traces key policies since the time of Deng, and she delves into the impact of the “one-child policy,” an area often overlooked by armchair commentators. For the most part, the Chinese people are willing to accept government direction, including a high degree of personal surveillance and intervention in their lives. They value security over freedom and generally believe that China requires a powerful central authority. Significantly, the younger generation is in many ways more conservative than their parents despite their taste for Western brands and lifestyles. Jin acknowledges China’s incredible progress but wonders what the future holds. “China’s central leadership, which spurred the most successful economic growth story of our time, could also make choices that might have the opposite effect in the future,” she concludes. “The power of the state provides the system’s greatest potential and also poses its gravest inherent risk.”
Mixing research with personal experience, Jin offers critical insights about the future of China and its global impact.
Kirkus Reviews
THE NEW CHINA PLAYBOOK BEYOND SOCIALISM & CAPITALISM
"The biggest geo-political change of the 21st century will be the end of exclusive Western political and economic dominance. The rise of China is at the core of this change and Keyu Jin is a brilliant thinker to take us through its implications from the perspective of someone who understands both China and the West. It is this combination of insider and outsider insight which makes The New China Playbook essential reading." –Tony Blair, former Prime Minster of The United Kingdom
A revelatory, myth-dispelling exploration of China’s juggernaut economy
Although China’s economy is one of the largest in the world, Western understanding is often based on dated assumptions and incomplete information.
In The New China Playbook, Keyu Jin burrows deep into the mechanisms of a unique system, taking a nuanced, clear-eyed, and data-based look inside. From the far-reaching and unexpected consequences of China’s one-child policy to the government’s complex relationship with entrepreneurs, from its boisterous financial system to its latest bout of techno-nationalism, Jin reveals the frequently misunderstood dynamics at play. China is entering a new era, soon to be shaped by a radically different younger generation.
As it strives to move beyond the confines of conventional socialism stained by shortages and capitalism’s own roadblocks of inequality, the world is about to see ultimate contest between two diametrically different systems. The thorough understanding of China’s playbook that Jin provides will be essential for anyone hoping to interpret the nation’s future economic and political strategy.
While China’s rise on the world stage has stirred a wide range of emotions, one thing is certain: a deep understanding is essential for successfully navigating the global economy in the 21st century.
PRAISE FOR CHINA THE NEW PLAYBOOK
"China is running on a new playbook for innovation and technology. As a bicultural economics expert, Professor Keyu Jin understands this playbook, and demystifies it for the global audience. This book is an invaluable lens to understand the modern anatomy of China." —Kai-Fu Lee, Chairman & CEO, Sinovation Ventures and New York Times bestselling author of AI Superpowers
“During the 20 years of my Presidency, through the many meetings with Xi Jinping and other Chinese leaders, I tried to understand China. Now Keyu Jin provides a brilliant guidebook, a must read for everyone in business and politics engaged in the global economy.” —Olafur Ragnar Grimsson, former President of Iceland and Chair of the Artic Circle
"A revelatory exposition of China's juggernaut economy and the rise of its entrepreneurs. Keyu Jin provides the roadmap to understanding the Chinese economy and places it within a global context. This is a must-read for anyone doing business in or with China today.” —William Ding, founder and chairman of NetEase
"The most important book on China in many years, written with stunning eloquence and clarity. Jin does not cover the warts, but insists on a holistic view. Anyone who want to understand China, and how to engage with it economically and politically, will greatly benefit from this deeply original book." —Kenneth Rogoff, Maurits C. Boas Chair of International Economics, Harvard University
“Much has been written about China, but it is rare to read an author such as Keyu Jin, who can so naturally and seamlessly blend two perspectives. If you are interested in a true conversation, this is the book worth reading.” —Charles Li, former Chief Executive of the Hong Kong Stock Exchange
Keyu Jin - China: Beyond Socialism and Capitalism
2024年4月18日
Economist and China scholar Keyu Jin speaking at the Westminster Town Hall Forum in Minneapolis.
Dr. Jin is a tenured professor of economics at the London School of Economics and Political Science. Born and raised in Beijing, she attended high school and college in the United States and holds a BA, MA, and PhD in economics from Harvard University.
Her most recent book is The New China Playbook: Beyond Socialism and Capitalism. In it, she argues that many in the West misunderstand China’s economic and political models. She maintains that China became the most successful economic story of our time by shifting from primarily state-owned enterprises to an economy more focused on entrepreneurship and participation in the global economy.
Jin is an academic member of the China Finance 40 Group and has worked with the World Bank, the IMF, and the China Banking Regulatory Commission. She is a non-executive board member of the luxury conglomerate Richemont. She resides with her family in Beijing and London.
This program opens with a musical performance by pipa player Gao Hong and her students
The New China Playbook: Beyond Socialism and Capitalism
“Keyu Jin is a brilliant thinker.” —Tony Blair, former prime minster of the United Kingdom
A myth-dispelling, comprehensive guide to the Chinese economy and its path to ascendancy.
China's economy has been booming for decades now. A formidable and emerging power on the world stage, the China that most Americans picture is only a rough sketch, based on American news coverage, policy, and ways of understanding.
Enter Keyu Jin: a world-renowned economist who was born in China, educated in the U.S., and is now a tenured professor at the London School of Economics. A person fluent in both Eastern and Western cultures, and a voice of the new generation of Chinese who represent a radical break from the past, Jin is uniquely poised to explain how China became the most successful economic story of our time, as it has shifted from primarily state-owned enterprise to an economy that is thriving in entrepreneurship, and participation in the global economy.
China’s economic realm is colorful and lively, filled with paradoxes and conundrums, and Jin believes that by understanding the Chinese model, the people, the culture and history in its true perspective, one can reconcile what may appear to be contradictions to the Western eye.
What follows is an illuminating account of a burgeoning world power, its past, and its potential future.
金刻羽, 2018年在慕尼黑的一場會議上。
Keyu Jin at a conference in Munich in 2018. Gandalf Hammerbacher/Picture-Alliance
Jin (second from right) at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland, 2020. Greg Beadle/World Economic Forum
