德國作為工業超級大國的時代即將結束

德國作為工業超級大國的時代即將結束

https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/germany-s-days-as-an-industrial-superpower-are-coming-to-an-end-1.2033273

Wilfried Eckl-Dorna、Jana Randow、Carolynn Look 和 Petra Sorge，彭博新聞 

Feb 10, 2024

（彭博社）——去年秋天，在杜塞爾多夫一個巨大的生產車間裏，號角演奏者陰沉的音調伴隨著一家百年工廠的最後一幕。

如需德語版本，請點擊此處。 訂閱我們的德國每日時事通訊。

在閃爍的照明彈和火把中，1,600 名失業人員中的許多人麵無表情地站著，看著工廠最後一個產品——鋼管——在軋機上被磨平成完美的圓柱體。 該儀式結束了德國工業化鼎盛時期開始的長達 124 年的運行，並經曆了兩次世界大戰，但未能在能源危機的餘波中幸存下來。

在過去的一年裏，這樣的結局已經多次重複，凸顯了德國麵臨的痛苦現實：它作為工業超級大國的日子可能即將結束。 自2017年以來，歐洲最大經濟體的製造業產出一直呈下降趨勢，並且隨著競爭力的削弱，下降速度正在加快。

“老實說，希望不大，”GEA Group AG 的首席執行官 Stefan Klebert 說道。GEA Group AG 是一家製造機械供應商，其曆史可以追溯到 1800 年代末期。 “我真的不確定我們能否阻止這種趨勢。 許多事情必須很快改變。”

德國工業機器的基礎已經像多米諾骨牌一樣倒塌了。 美國正在遠離歐洲，並尋求與跨大西洋盟友競爭氣候投資。 中國正在成為一個更大的競爭對手，並且不再是德國商品的貪得無厭的買家。 對一些重型製造商來說，最後的打擊是俄羅斯大量廉價天然氣的終結。

除了全球動蕩之外，柏林的政治癱瘓也加劇了長期存在的國內問題，例如破舊的基礎設施、勞動力老齡化和繁瑣的官僚作風。 教育係統曾經是一個優勢，但現在卻是公共服務投資長期缺乏的象征。 Ifo 研究所估計，到本世紀末，數學技能的下降將使經濟損失約 14 萬億歐元（15 萬億美元）。

閱讀更多：德國擔心大眾汽車正在走向無路可走

在某些情況下，工業減速是小步進行的，例如縮減擴張和投資計劃。 其他的則更為明顯，例如轉移生產線和裁員。 在極端情況下——比如瓦盧瑞克 SACA 的管道廠，曾經是倒閉的工業巨頭曼內斯曼的一部分——結果是永久關閉。

“震驚是巨大的，”從十幾歲起就在該工廠工作的沃爾夫岡·弗雷塔格 (Wolfgang Freitag) 說。 59歲的他現在的工作是拆解設備出售，並幫助老同事找到新工作。

德國仍然擁有一批令人羨慕的小型敏捷製造商，德國央行和其他機構拒絕接受全麵去工業化即將到來的觀點。 但隨著改革陷入停滯，尚不清楚什麽會減緩衰退。

“我們不再具有競爭力，”財政部長克裏斯蒂安·林德納在本月早些時候的彭博社活動中表示。 “我們變得越來越窮，因為我們沒有增長。 我們正在落後。”

11 月中旬，法院對借貸措施的裁決引發了預算危機，導致德國總理奧拉夫·肖爾茨 (Olaf Scholz) 的焦躁聯盟陷入進一步混亂，導致政府幾乎沒有投資餘地。

德國工商會外貿負責人沃爾克·特雷爾表示：“即使你不是悲觀主義者，也會認為我們目前所做的還不夠。” “結構變化的速度令人目眩。”

沮喪情緒很普遍。 盡管最近幾周有數十萬人走上街頭抗議極右極端主義，但反移民的德國另類選擇黨（AfD）在民意調查中領先於所有三個執政黨，僅落後於保守派集團。 根據《明鏡周刊》對最近調查的分析，肖爾茨領導的社會民主黨聯盟得到了 34% 選民的支持。

閱讀更多：極右勢力在德國崛起，肖爾茨不知所措

米其林北歐地區負責人瑪麗亞·羅特格 (Maria Röttger) 表示，工業競爭力的下降可能使德國陷入螺旋式下降。 這家法國輪胎製造商將關閉其兩家德國工廠，並在 2025 年底之前縮小第三家工廠的規模，此舉將影響 1,500 多名工人。 美國競爭對手固特異也有類似的兩個工廠計劃。

她在接受采訪時表示：“盡管我們的員工積極主動，但我們已經無法以有競爭力的價格從德國出口卡車輪胎了。” “如果德國不能在國際環境中具有競爭力的出口，該國就會失去其最大的優勢之一。”

其他考試

下降的情況經常出現。 GEA 正在關閉美因茨附近的一家泵廠，轉而在波蘭建立一個新工廠。 汽車零部件製造商大陸集團於 7 月宣布計劃放棄一家生產安全和製動係統零部件的工廠。 其競爭對手羅伯特博世有限公司正在裁員數千名。

2022 年夏季的能源危機是一個主要催化劑。 盡管避免了凍結房屋和配給等最壞的情況，但價格仍然高於其他經濟體，這增加了工資上漲和監管複雜性帶來的成本。

受打擊最嚴重的行業之一是化學品——這是德國失去廉價俄羅斯天然氣的直接結果。 VCI 行業協會最近的一項調查顯示，由於向清潔氫的過渡仍不確定，近十分之一的公司計劃永久停止生產過程。 歐洲最大的化學品生產商巴斯夫公司(BASF SE)將裁員2,600人，朗盛公司(Lanxess AG)將裁員7%。

即使企業準備好投資，德國緩慢的官僚機構也沒有跟上步伐。 GEA 在德國西部小鎮厄爾德的一家工廠安裝了太陽能發電設備，生產可將奶油與牛奶分離的設備。 去年一月，即開工前兩個月，該公司申請了供電許可證，目前仍在等待批準——距離該項目啟動已近兩年。

疫情造成的幹擾導致裝配線陷入停滯，德國汽車製造商等待芯片和其他零部件長達數月之久，能源緊張很快就出現了，這突顯了依賴分布廣泛的供應商網絡的風險，尤其是在亞洲。 閱讀更多 : 歐洲經濟引擎正在崩潰

中國現在在很多方麵給德國製造麻煩。 除了向先進製造業的戰略轉移之外，這個亞洲超級大國經濟放緩進一步削弱了對德國商品的需求。 與此同時，來自中國的廉價競爭令德國氣候轉型的關鍵行業感到擔憂——而不僅僅是電動汽車。

太陽能電池板製造商正在關閉業務並裁員，因為他們難以與國家支持的中國競爭對手競爭。 總部位於德累斯頓的 Solarwatt GmbH 首席執行官德特勒夫·諾伊豪斯 (Detlef Neuhaus) 表示，該公司已經裁員 10%，如果今年情況沒有改善，可能會將生產轉移到國外。

德國麵臨的逆風需要適應。 對於風扇和通風機生產商 EBM-Papst 來說，工業危機意味著收購一家陷入困境的供應商。 為了保持靈活性，該公司將生產從汽車行業轉向熱泵和數據中心零部件。 它還希望將一些管理任務轉移到東歐或印度。

“這不僅僅是能源，”首席執行官 Klaus Geißdörfer 在接受采訪時表示。 “這也是德國員工數量的問題，目前德國的員工情況非常緊張。” 他補充說，十年之內，勞動年齡人口將太少，無法保持經濟像今天一樣運轉。

德國央行在 9 月份的一份報告中得出結論，製造業的下滑（占經濟的比重略低於 20%，幾乎是美國水平的兩倍）如果是漸進的，則不必擔心。

對於像杜塞爾多夫的管道廠這樣的基礎製造商來說，這種趨勢可能意味著道路的終結。 Freitag 是工廠工會的成員，目前正在幫助準備出售這片 90 公頃的土地。 他說，大部分設備最終都會被扔進廢品場，這“讓我的心和眼睛流淚”。

——在卡米爾·科瓦爾切的幫助下。

Germany's Days as an Industrial Superpower Are Coming to an End

https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/germany-s-days-as-an-industrial-superpower-are-coming-to-an-end-1.2033273

Wilfried Eckl-Dorna, Jana Randow, Carolynn Look and Petra Sorge, Bloomberg News 

Feb 10, 2024

, Source: Eurostat

(Bloomberg) -- In a cavernous production hall in Düsseldorf last fall, the somber tones of a horn player accompanied the final act of a century-old factory. 

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Amid the flickering of flares and torches, many of the 1,600 people losing their jobs stood stone-faced as the glowing metal of the plant’s last product — a steel pipe — was smoothed to a perfect cylinder on a rolling mill. The ceremony ended a 124-year run that began in the heyday of German industrialization and weathered two world wars, but couldn’t survive the aftermath of the energy crisis. 

There have been numerous iterations of such finales over the past year, underscoring the painful reality facing Germany: its days as an industrial superpower may be coming to an end. Manufacturing output in Europe’s biggest economy has been trending downward since 2017, and the decline is accelerating as competitiveness erodes.

“There’s not a lot of hope, if I’m honest,” said Stefan Klebert, chief executive officer of GEA Group AG — a supplier of manufacturing machinery that traces its roots to the late 1800s. “I am really uncertain that we can halt this trend. Many things would have to change very quickly.”

The underpinnings of Germany’s industrial machine have fallen like dominoes. The US is drifting away from Europe and is seeking to compete with its transatlantic allies for climate investment. China is becoming a bigger rival and is no longer an insatiable buyer of German goods. The final blow for some heavy manufacturers was the end of huge volumes of cheap Russian natural gas. 

Alongside global volatility, political paralysis in Berlin is intensifying long-standing domestic issues such as creaking infrastructure, an aging workforce and the snarl of red tape. The education system, once a strength, is emblematic of a long-term lack of investment in public services. The Ifo research institute estimates that declining math skills will cost the economy about €14 trillion ($15 trillion) in output by the end of the century.

Read More: Germany Frets Volkswagen Is Heading Down the Road to Nowhere

In some cases, the industrial downshift is taking place in small steps like scaling back expansion and investment plans. Others are more evident like shifting production lines and trimming staff. In extreme instances — like Vallourec SACA’s pipe plant, once part of fallen industrial giant Mannesmann — the consequence is permanent closure. 

“The shock was huge,” said Wolfgang Freitag, who worked at the plant since he was a teenager. The 59-year-old’s job now is to disassemble equipment for sale and help his old colleagues find new work.

Germany still has an enviable roster of small, agile manufacturers, and the Bundesbank and others reject the notion that full-blown deindustrialization is anywhere close. But with reforms stalled, it’s unclear what will slow the decline.  

“We are no longer competitive,” Finance Minister Christian Lindner said at a Bloomberg event earlier this month. “We are getting poorer because we have no growth. We are falling behind.” 

Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s fractious coalition was thrown into further disarray in mid-November by a budget crisis sparked by a court ruling over borrowing measures, leaving the government with little leeway to invest.

“You don’t have to be a pessimist to say that what we’re doing at the moment won’t be enough,” said Volker Treier, foreign trade chief at Germany’s Chambers of Commerce and Industry. “The speed of structural change is dizzying.” 

Frustration is widespread. Although hundreds of thousands of people have hit the streets in recent weeks to protest against far-right extremism, the anti-immigration Alternative für Deutschland, or AfD, is ahead of all three ruling parties in the polls — trailing only the conservative bloc. Scholz’s Social Democrat-led alliance has support from 34% of voters, according to a Spiegel analysis of recent surveys.

Read More: The Far Right Is on the Rise in Germany and Scholz Is at a Loss

Fading industrial competitiveness threatens to plunge Germany into a downward spiral, according to Maria Röttger, head of northern Europe for Michelin. The French tiremaker is shutting two of its German plants and downsizing a third by the end of 2025 in a move that will affect more than 1,500 workers. US rival Goodyear has similar plans for two facilities. 

“Despite the motivation of our employees, we have arrived at a point where we can’t export truck tires from Germany at competitive prices,” she said in an interview. “If Germany can’t export competitively in the international context, the country loses one of its biggest strengths.”

Other examples of decline surface regularly. GEA is closing a pump factory near Mainz in favor of a newer site in Poland. Auto-parts maker Continental AG announced plans in July to abandon a plant that makes components for safety and brake systems. Rival Robert Bosch GmbH is in the process of slashing thousands of workers.

The energy crisis in the summer of 2022 was a major catalyst. While worst-case scenarios like freezing homes and rationing were avoided, prices remain higher than in other economies, which adds to costs from higher wages and regulatory complexity.

One of the hardest-hit sectors has been chemicals — a direct result of Germany’s loss of cheap Russian gas. With the transition to clean hydrogen still uncertain, nearly one in 10 companies are planning to permanently halt production processes, according to a recent survey by the VCI industry association. BASF SE, Europe’s biggest chemical producer, is cutting 2,600 jobs and Lanxess AG is reducing staff by 7%.

Germany’s sluggish bureaucracy also isn’t keeping pace, even when companies are prepared to invest. GEA installed solar capacity at a factory in the western German town of Oelde, where it makes equipment that can separate cream from milk. It applied for permits to feed in the power last January, two months before starting construction and is still waiting for approval — nearly two years after initiating the project.

The energy squeeze came quickly on the heels of disruptions from the pandemic that led to stalled assembly lines as German automakers waited months for chips and other components, underscoring the risks of relying on a far-flung network of suppliers, especially in Asia.Read More:  Europe’s Economic Engine Is Breaking Down 

China is now causing trouble for Germany in a number of ways. On top of  its strategic shift into advanced manufacturing, a slowdown of the Asian superpower’s economy is sapping demand for German goods even further. At the same time, cheap competition from China is worrying industries key for Germany’s climate transition — and not just electric cars. 

Manufacturers of solar panels are shuttering operations and cutting staff as they struggle to compete with state-supported Chinese rivals. Dresden-based Solarwatt GmbH has already cut 10% of its workforce and may relocate production abroad if the situation doesn’t improve this year, according to CEO Detlef Neuhaus. 

Germany’s headwinds require adaptation. For EBM-Papst, a producer of fans and ventilators, the industrial crisis meant acquiring a struggling supplier. And to stay nimble, the company shifted production to components for heat pumps and data centers and away from the auto sector. It’s also looking to move some administrative tasks to eastern Europe or India. 

“It’s not just energy,” CEO Klaus Geißdörfer said in an interview. “It’s also staff availability in Germany, which is now very tense.” Within a decade, the working-age population will be too small to keep the economy functioning as it does today, he added.

The Bundesbank concluded in a September report that a decline in manufacturing — which accounts for just under 20% of the economy, nearly twice the US’s level — isn’t worrying if it’s gradual. 

Such a trend could mean the end of the road for more basic manufacturers like the pipe plant in Düsseldorf. Freitag, a member of the factory’s works council, is now helping prepare the 90-hectare site for sale. Much of the equipment will end up in a scrapyard, which “makes my heart and eyes weep,” he said.

--With assistance from Kamil Kowalcze.